Tag Archives: Never enough money to give away
The Rising Tension in Europe for Civil Unrest
Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest
Re-Posted Nov 27, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hello!
More and more people in western Europe are talking about the coming civil war between the Muslims/Arabs and the Europeans. Guillaume Faye has even written a book about it. I personally believe that it will break out between 2025 and 2050 and that it will start in France. Me and my friends are looking for some place to go before it starts. We are looking at eastern Europe. Have your computer anything on this coming civil war?
Thank you for your hard work.
IR
ANSWER: Economics is at the root of the crisis. In 1844, tensions rose and there were gun battles on the streets in Philadelphia against the Irish Catholics. This occurred in the middle of a depression from the Panic of 1837 with the sovereign debt defaults by states. Religion was involved to some extent, but the argument became that the Irish immigrants were taking the jobs and were willing to work for less.
In this case, the refugees get handouts from the state and then the state raises taxes on the citizens. This still is fueling the tensions and there is indeed a risk of civil conflicts and separatist movements. This is also the period where we should expect more anti-establishment parties rising because people are losing their lifestyles thanks to the career politicians who have created an economic catastrophe.
The Hunt For Taxes – Sell & Leave Before It is too late?
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted Nov 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear MR. Armstrong,
As a long time subscriber to your basic level Socrates,I’m very grateful for the guidance I’ve received.I have a question. In the hunt for taxes my Canadian government just assessed me over $80,000.00 for unreported income. I pay my taxes Mr Armstrong, the Canadian government pulled my bank records and although what I said was verified by those records, they refused to accept them! Even my tax lawyer was astounded.Now a difficult question for me.I’m retired and have no income presently.But I do own my on home.To pay off the CRA I’m considering getting a Reverse Mortgage on my home.They charge 6% monthly on the unpaid settlement so if I can get the RM at say 5% and use the extra to buy gold, perhaps over 5 years I can beat this burden.Would you recommend this strategy to your Mother or what else can I do.
Best Regards,
RW
ANSWER: Perhaps that is all you can do. The tax authorities are pulling those tactics far more often because they are broke and it will get far worse. I strongly advise to get a retirement visa from Thailand. You may have to just change your domicile to get away from this hunt for taxes that will continue to get worse. You are already hit. They will usually shift the burden of proof to you and just assume everything you have belongs to them. This is part of the economic tyranny we face.
It really is best to sell fixed assets in countries with aggressive tax agencies so they cannot take your home. Another thing they do, like the USA, is to cancel your passport if you owe them more the $50,000. We are economic slaves. We have truly lost all our freedoms.
I do not know what else to say, You are dancing with the devil and the rule of law has vanished. Justice died with the beginning of direct taxation embracing the income tax and Marxism. Justice is indeed just the will of the government.
The Repo Crisis
Armstrong Economics Blog/Reports and DVDs
Re-Posted Nov 19, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; The goldbugs are back and claiming the Repo Crisis is MMT and this is again just printing money endlessly to cover up a major banking crisis in the USA so buy gold of course. You said at the WEC cocktail party this would happen because these people never understand the world economy. Is this because they are so fixated on the dollar crash to make gold viable?
Thanks for a great WEC. It was your best ever!
HN
ANSWER: Of course, they will call this Quantitative Easing and Modern Monetary Theory. They are biased and in favor of gold, which makes them incapable of being real analysts. First, you must establish a base method of inquiry which cannot begin with a predetermined conclusion that all paper money is evil and gold is the only real money. Because they begin with this PRESUMPTION, they only look at things to support that predetermined outcome. They fail to provide the reason or support their proposition with historical evidence. They never provide any collective investigation that would put their expectations in question.
The Fed is NOT engaging in QE nor is it engaging in MMT. The Fed is standing in the middle because banks do not trust banks. The crisis is by NO MEANS in the United States. They also fail to grasp why the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, the hoarding of dollars globally, or what this crisis is even about. They interpret any increase in the quantity of money as inflationary. We have had more than 10 years of QE in Japan and Europe with no inflation, which proves their theory is WRONG. They will never address that reality and instead constantly argue gold will rally with QE.
I will do a special report on the Repo Crisis because it just seems people are using this crisis to sell nonsense and outright bullshit. They are so far off the mark about the cause of this crisis, as always, and it would be funny if they were not misleading people into risking their entire life savings. The banks won’t talk to each other and the central banks are living in absolute terror that the truth will come out and the world will just go nuts.
I always seem to be in the middle of every crisis. Not sure how this happens. I get calls asking me what have I heard because nobody will talk among themselves but somehow they come to me to ask what I have heard. I am writing the report now because it just seems imperative to explain the real cause that the press will never print. Nobody will talk and the central banks cannot dare utter a single word about the source of the crisis for fear of creating a political crisis. Even the heads of states are being left in the dark. Trump has called for negative interest rates because he does not understand the crisis because nobody is talking. All they can do is pray at the foot of their bed every night to PLEASE let this crisis pass. Sorry, your prayers will not be heard.
REPO Crisis
Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates
Re-Posted Nov 12, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION:
Martin,
I heard an interesting argument recently about the Fed injecting money into the repo market. This person said that Dodd-Frank allows the fed to inject money directly into the banking system as in the case of the repo market, and this makes another 2008 impossible because all of the risk is now transferred to the currency and basically there is nothing to worry about.
I am sure this is not true but it does make me wonder where the liquidity crisis will pop-up if the fed has the power to inject liquidity as it needs to at any time and in any amount necessary. I am guessing it has to do with the fact that we need to think globally and not domestically as you always say. I believe you mentioned in previous posts that the liquidity crisis may now be transferred to Europe as they have different banking/ECB laws.
Thank You,
Alex
ANSWER: That’s a nice theory, however, they have overlooked one major problem. The Fed cannot prop up the entire world. The liquidity crisis is unfolding in Europe — NOT the USA!!!! Banks no longer trust banks so they are placing it with the Fed rather than with other banks because nobody understands what is going on.
Categories: Interest Rates
Negative Interest Rates is the Way to Kill a Reserve Currency
Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €
Posted Nov 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Christine Lagarde said back in August that the European Central Bank still had room to cut rates if needed. However, she added that this could pose a challenge to financial stability in Europe. More and more banks are passing on the negative interest rates to depositors and this is undermining the elderly and pensions. From a broader view, this policy of negative interest rates has undermined the euro even as a reserve currency. Nobody wants it in their books. It is like it has the plague. I cannot express how serious this policy of negative interest rates has been. It has been the cure to eliminate the euro as a reserve currency. If the US wants to kill the dollar, just adopt negative interest rates and watch how it plummets.
I believe you may see Lagarde try to unravel this mess created by Draghi.
Europe Moving to Worldwide Income Tax & International Wealth Tax
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Re-Posted Nov 6, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: As I understand you’re writings, the € is not a good currency to be in. I’m South African and stay in the Netherlands for 13 years now. I’ve been following you’re advice not to be in €’s and therefore I only have a house here that can be seen as a € investment. I still have an equity portefeulje in South Africa with a 70% exposure to rand-denominated offshore investments(global, with a big USA component). I am however experiencing 2 problems now: 1 The Netherlands tax on worldwide income: not just the growth on the investment portefeulje, but the whole portefeulje! The result: growth on the investment portefeulje are lost due to the taxation in the Netherlands. 1.2% of all the capital are taken and tax at 30%. From 2022 it will be 5.4% at 33%. 2 The instability in South Africa and push for socialism put me at risk to lose the investment portefeulje. The law is very vague, but actually indicates that “stuff”can be taken if it’s in the best interest of the people and country. It only takes the wrong government … From 1 March 2020 South Africa also wants to tax on worldwide income and if your tax rate is lower than 45%, you will pay the difference to South Africa.
Where do you go to keep you’re hard, earned money safe from governments? I’m thinking about selling a large portion of the investment portefeulje and opening bank accounts in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland just to keep money safe till after the market crash, and then to invest again into the equity market. I also remember that you’ve said that the bank guarantee would only be for x1 €100 000 and not for every €100 000 that you keep in European banks. The European bail-inns are also a big risk. Do you have any other suggestions? By the way: gold is also taxed here in the Netherlands(not just on the gains)
RG
ANSWER: The ONLY place for a European to have a bank account right now is the United States. The list of countries that will report on what you are doing (CRS= Common Reporting Standard) and what you have is as follows:
As of 2018, the signing nations to avoid are:
Albania, Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Australia, Austria, The Bahamas, Bahrain, Belize, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Dominica, Ghana, Grenada, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Marshall Islands, Macao (China), Malaysia, Mauritius, Monaco, Nauru, New Zealand, Pakistan, Panama, Qatar, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Samoa, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sint Maarten, Switzerland, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Uruguay, Vanuatu
You will notice that the United States and Thailand are two notable exceptions. Right now, they are the only places that are safe for a European. Scandinavia is not on the list, but Sweden has committed to join the CRS. There is a serious risk in Scandinavia.
Make no mistake about it. Europe is looking to also tax worldwide income. The Netherlands has a worldwide income tax form. The top income tax bracket in the Netherlands is 51.95%, plus there is a 30% flat tax on investment income. If you have a residential property in the Netherlands, you must be careful. The Netherlands tax courts look to whether there are “durable” ties of a personal nature with the Netherlands. That excludes pure business, but ties of a personal nature such as the maintenance of a residential property play a more defining role. Residence abroad does not, by itself, exclude the possibility of being considered a tax resident in the Netherlands.
Europeans MUST realize that Worldwide Income Tax is just around the corner. If you have substantial wealth, you may want to look at getting another citizenship. It is going to get much worse there in Europe between now and 2032. You will find the push to impose a wealth tax is fully underway. Switzerland already has an International Wealth Tax which is a levy on the total value of personal assets, including bank deposits, real estate, assets in insurance and pension plans, ownership of unincorporated businesses, financial securities, and personal trusts. You have to declare everything you own around the entire world. Then, because Switzerland is part of the CRS, they will share that with every other country. Typically, liabilities (primarily mortgages and other loans) are deducted from an individual’s wealth.
As we move toward 2032, the unfunded liabilities will explode and governments will become EXTREMELY Draconian and impose both the Worldwide Income Tax and the International Wealth Tax. There is no hope; this trend leads only to the destruction of Western Culture. They are only concerned about what is immediately in front of their nose. Be mentally prepared to simply walk away from fixed assets as was the case when Rome collapsed.
Categories: The H
The Two-Tier Currency Rate in Argentina
Armstrong Economics Blog/South America
Re-Posted Nov 4, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
Can you please explain how the Contado con Liquidacion exchange rate works in Argentina? It’s now at around 80 pesos per dollar, while the official rate is 58.37. Is it possible for the average person living in Argentina to get the Contado exchange rate? Also, do you have any advice for the new government? https://www.ambito.com/contenidos/dolar-cl.html
Thank you,
JT
ANSWER: The Cotización del dólar Contado con Liquidación exchange rate is a form of a two-tier currency which is a way to buy dollars and move your money out of Argentina. This is an operation that can be performed both with bonds and stocks that are trading within Argentina but also in the United States. There are a number of Argentine stocks that trade in the USA (see list). Smart investors have used this as a vehicle to buy dollars as well as companies. However, the government has imposed a USD $10,000 per month limitation as of September 2nd, 2019.
You or a company can buy public security or share in the local Argentine market that is also listed in New York. The purchase of that bond or share is made with pesos. You then ask the broker to transfer the title or share abroad and once they are received in New York, you can sell them and the proceeds of that sale are then credited in US dollars in your account in the USA. To carry out this type of operation, you need an account in Argentina and an account in the USA which you are obligated to report to the AFIP in Argentina. Therefore, it is a legal way to get your money out of Argentina provided you report your foreign account, but there is a $10,000 per month limitation.
Ever since the election on August 11th, 2019 when Argentina’s currency collapsed along with stock and bond prices not witnessed in 18 years on schedule with the 18-year Monetary Crisis Cycle, the currency has reflected the collapse in international confidence. Voters turned to interventionist economics rejecting President Mauricio Macri and his free-market approach in favor of the opposition. The Argentine peso dropped 30%, to a record low of 65 per one United States dollar, following Alberto Fernández dominated the primary by a 15.5% point margin which was substantially more than local polls expected. Then on October 28th, 2019, Alberto Fernandez became the new President but immediately he faces suggestions that he is a puppet for ex-president Cristina Kirchner. This has led many to assume that she will really be running the country. This is not a great position for confidence in his administration.
When President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner reached her two-term limit in 2015, many believed it was for the best. She was flamboyant and divisive and became the populist Peronist politics. She believed in economic interventionism and was a strong nationalist and to a large extent that underlying position has dominated Argentina for the majority of the past 80 years. Under Argentine election law, a president may serve no more than two consecutive terms. They can run again only after sitting out a term. In the case of Cristina Kirchner, she has reemerged as the running mate rather than the top of the ticket. This is what many now assume Alberto Fernandez is just a puppet. It is hard to imagine that someone has tasted power and is willing to just walk away. Time will tell, but many suspects she will be the real power behind the throne.
Nevertheless, when we look at the chart of the Argentine Peso, we can clearly see that the fall in the Peso began when she left office in 2015. From the average person’s perspective, it is not hard to imagine what the people were voting with her on the ticket as Vice President. From a cyclical perspective, we see that we will have a Panic Cycle and major turning point shaping up in Argentina during 2024 in line with the peak of the next Economic Confidence Model wave.
Major Canadian Company Moving to USA
Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada
Re-Posted Nov 4, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Here in Canada we just received devastating news this morning that our greatest company/ multinational is leaving & never to return. ENCANA has announced its intention that it is leaving the country of its birth !!
Thank goodness for socialism!! Wonder how public servants will feel who voted for this “ snowboard instructor “ will fell when their social insurance/ pensions get slashed??
DL
REPLY: Yes, ENCANA has switched its domicile from Canada to the USA because of Trump’s tax reform and the insanity of Canadian environmentalists. Don’t worry, when the Democrats get hold of the presidency, they will reverse Trump’s tax reform and drive companies back out of the USA just as Canada is doing up there.
Categories: Canada
Public v Private Waves in the ECM
Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM
Re-Posted Nov 1, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION:
Hi Marty.
I am confused about the nature of the private wave we are currently in versus the public wave beginning in 1932. Does that mean governments will be more predominant in starting in 1932? This seems contrary to your many statements that the governments today are fighting to maintain control.
Thanks,
GP
ANSWER: During the Public Wave that began in 1934 and ended in 1985, the bond market performed at its best and stocks became extremely undervalued. This started to readjust only after the Public Wave ended in 1985. Only during the final wave does the government start to unravel in a Public Wave. In a Private Wave, stock markets outperform bond markets. Here, people lose their faith in government rapidly. By the half-way mark in a Private Wave, the government becomes aggressive because it sees it is losing control of society. This is why governments will become much more aggressive during the last part of this wave into 2032.
Centinel2012 