The American Dream Goes Bust, KB Home Wrecked, Other Homebuilders Follow


KB Home, one of the largest homebuilders, reported earnings on Tuesday. It was all hunky-dory. Shares rose 3.6% in premarket trading. But then, at 11:30 AM ET came the conference call. And what these folks said about the housing market wrecked KBH. The carnage spread to other homebuilders and torpedoed a big-fat rally in the broader market.

So what the heck is going on in this glorious housing market of ours?

Since the implosion of the housing bubble, we the people bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We had home-buyer tax credits from state and federal governments. We got HAMP, HARP, mortgage write-downs, and banks that were delaying foreclosures to pump up prices. We got the Fed’s ZIRP, QE-1, QE-2, “Operation Twist,” and QE-3, during which the Fed purchased mortgage-backed securities, in addition to Treasuries,  to repress long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, to goose home prices. We got multi-billion dollar fines and settlements from TBTF banks who never admitted any wrongdoing. We got private equity funds pouring the Fed’s free money into the housing market, buying up hundreds of thousands of single-family homes to rent them out and drive up their prices.

After all these trillions and taxpayer guarantees and no-cost capital for Wall Street, you’d think the housing market would be in great shape with first-time buyers, the bedrock of a sound housing market, flooding the scene to buy homes at affordable prices, borrow like mad to equip them with furniture and appliances, and push the economy to the next level.

Instead, home prices have jumped – in some hot areas, such as San Francisco, far above the crazy levels of the prior housing bubble. Homes have become unaffordable for many people. Sales are languishing. And everything is off kilter.

But one thing these heroic efforts did accomplish: they managed to decouple the relationship between homeownership rates and home prices. Ever since the post-war boom, there had been one constant: higher homeownership rates led to higher prices. The principle held during the Financial Crisis when homeownership rates and prices fell in sync. Then, as the heroic efforts to heal the housing market kicked in, home prices began to soar, and homeownership? It dropped relentlessly.

“The first national housing boom in the postwar era that has not been supported by an increased demand for owner-occupied housing,” that’s what a report by the St. Louis Fed called it.

In this chart from the report, homeownership rate (blue line) peaked in 2005 at 69%, “accompanied by a steep increase in home prices,” namely the housing bubble, as depicted by the CaseShiller home price index (orange line).

US-homeownership-v-home-price_StLouisFed

The biggest decline in homeownership was among households headed by individuals age 35 and under, hence “first-time buyers,” the report explained, concluding that it’s now “possible to have housing booms driven entirely by investors.” And the chart depicts how America has changed from a nation of homeowners chasing the “American Dream” to a nation where Wall Street is the biggest landlord.

This is the environment homebuilders are facing.

So KB Home reported that revenues for the fourth quarter, ended November 30, increased 29% from a year ago to $796 million, due to two factors: deliveries increased 9%; and the average selling price soared 17% to $351,500. Orders and backlog were up as well. Net profit jumped to $852.8 million, a feat accomplished via a tax benefit of $824.2 million. Without the tax benefit, the profit was $28.6 million, up a smidgen from a year ago. Those numbers lit a fire under the shares, and they rallied premarket and in early trading before they lost steam.

At 11:30 AM came the conference call.

CEO Jeff Mezger said that during the prior earnings call, he’d still expected “a slow yet steady recovery” of the housing market, and that gross profit margins would improve sequentially going forward. But the opposite happened. There was a “softening in demand” and “increased pricing pressure” while costs of labor and materials were rising (transcript, Seeking Alpha).

CFO Jeff Kaminski added that the average selling price had increased 18 quarters in a row on a year-over-year basis, but for Q1 he projected it to drop 7.5% to $325,000.

This is the toxic mix that hit them: They delivered fewer homes than “previously expected.” Given “tighter market conditions,” they had to cut prices and throw in more sales incentives. And “cost pressures” were building up in labor and materials.

So adjusted gross margin edged down to 18.7%. It would continue to be lower “for some time,” Mezger said. Year-over-year, Q1 gross margin will “drop significantly,” before ticking up during the rest of the year, but it won’t reach the “goal of 20% in 2015 as we have hoped.”

There was one more thing: California.

The company booked inventory impairment charges of $34 million. Of that, $23 million was for some land in the Coachella Valley area, near Palm Springs in Southern California. The remaining $11 million were for other areas in inland California and also in Arizona. While coastal California is booming, with the Bay Area being “as good as it’s ever been,” the inland areas – the Inland Empire in Southern California and the Central Valley – were “quite a bit softer than they have been.” And so they had to pile on sales incentives and slash prices in “the magnitude of 8% or 10%,” he said. “It hit pretty hard out there.”

And it’s “possible” that there would be “additional impairments in the future,” he said.

Then there’s Orange County, a wealthy enclave. It “softened a little,” he said. He blamed the “Chinese buyer.” Real estate agents were steering them to resale homes because they were a better deal, after new home prices had ballooned so much. And as Chinese demand wanes, “it ripples inland, and the further inland you go the more the ripple is felt….”

KBH had traded in the green for part of the morning, while the Dow was up over 200 points. But word of what was in the script must have leaked out, and KBH soon turned red. The conference call started at 11:30 AM ET. At 11:36 AM, as Mezger was reading off the script, KBH began to plunge in a nearly straight line then zigzagged down further to lose 16% for the day, and 44% for the last eight months.

Other homebuilders, after rallying, got hammered too. DR Horton dropped 4.8%, Lennar 1.7%, PulteGroup 2.5%, and the iShares US Home Construction 2.5%. The Dow began losing its grip at about 10 AM and dove over 400 points peak-to-trough, then bounced off and settled 27 points in the hole.

Broader home sales have been terrible. The bitter irony of the Fed’s handiwork. Read… Last Time Inflated Home Prices Strangled Sales Like This, the Housing Market Crashed 

Capitalism – Socialism – Communism


Armstrong Economics
Posted on January 10, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

CAPITALISM

The business cycle is critical to understand. The difference between Capitalism and Socialism is simple. Capitalism is where you are free to decide what you do with your money, and Socialism is where government orders you what to do with their money, which you earn. The difference between Communism and Socialism is clever. The former “owns” everything and the latter you own it but they tax it and if you cannot pay the tax they take it.

Socialism/Communists try desperately to paint capitalism as the benefit of the greedy rich. People see the bankers as manipulating government but this is not inherent in capitalism, that is the corruption that infects all republics. A republic ALWAYS devolves into an oligarchy, which is not freedom and is not capitalism. Russia moved from communism to oligarchy and that is why it did not really boom as did China, which moved to capitalism.

For capitalism to work historically, it must embrace freedom and that can ONLY be accomplished by a true democratic system. Once you have career politicians who are elected perpetually, that opens the door to oligarchy. If China has a political class of professional politicians who do not need money to get reelected, then this defeats the oligarchy evolution for they do not require money to maintain power.

The elections of 53BC in the Roman Republic saw interest rates double because corrupt politicians had borrowed so much money for bribing votes. This is the oligarchy tendency that destroyed the Roman Republic.

Putin Strikes Back:


Russia Cuts Off European Gas Supplies, Starts Selling Dollars: “The Decision Has Been Made”

By Mac Slavo
www.SHTFplan.com
January 15th, 2015

putin-plays-chess

Vladimir Putin has been silent lately. But if anyone thought he had been shamed into defeat or marginalized, then think again.

In the last few hours Russia has announced two key strategic decisions that show they are not going to stand idly by while their economy and way of life are destroyed by Western forces.

First, presumably in response to stiff sanctions leveled by the United States and the European Union after the annexation of Crimea last year, Russia has cut off 60% of Europe’s gas supplies right in the middle of winter. This has caused an almost immediate crisis in six European nations that have seen a complete cut-off to their supplies – Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey – with more to follow. According to reports via Zero Hedge, the effect has been almost instantaneous.

Without Russia residents across Europe have no way of staying warm.

Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian state energy giant Gazprom to cut supplies to and through Ukraine amid accusations, according to The Daily Mail, that its neighbor has been siphoning off and stealing Russian gas. Due to these “transit risks for European consumers in the territory of Ukraine,” Gazprom cut gas exports to Europe by 60%, plunging the continent into an energy crisis “within hours.” Perhaps explaining the explosion higher in NatGas prices (and oil) today, gas companies in Ukraine confirmed that Russia had cut off supply; and six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas. The EU raged that the sudden cut-off to some of its member countries was “completely unacceptable,” but Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller later added that Russia plans to shift all its natural gas flows crossing Ukraine to a route via Turkey; and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated unequivocally, “the decision has been made.”

Russia has taken similar steps in the past because of non-payment but turned the gas supplies back on once deals were reached.

This time, however, there won’t be a deal.

Russia says it will deliver the gas through Turkey, and then it’s up to the European Union to build the infrastructure that will transport it to the rest of the continent, as noted by Bloomberg.

“Transit risks for European consumers on the territory of Ukraine remain,” Miller said in an e-mailed statement. “There are no other options” except for the planned Turkish Stream link, he said.

“We have informed our European partners, and now it is up to them to put in place the necessary infrastructure starting from the Turkish-Greek border,” Miller said.

“The decision has been made,” Novak said. “We are diversifying and eliminating the risks of unreliable countries that caused problems in past years, including for European consumers.”

Europe, of course, does not have the necessary infrastructure in place for this, and Vladimir Putin most certainly knew this before he shut off the spigots.

Second, and perhaps even more significant than the overt move to show Europe who’s boss, Putin took a direct shot at the United States.

Also from Zero Hedge:

As Bloomberg reports Russia “may unseal its $88 billion Reserve Fund and convert some of its foreign-currency holdings into rubles, the latest government effort to prop up an economy veering into its worst slump since 2009.”

These are dollars which Russia would have otherwise recycled into US denominated assets. Instead, Russia will purchase even more Rubles and use the proceeds for FX and economic stabilization purposes.

“Together with the central bank, we are selling a part of our foreign-currency reserves,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in Moscow today. “We’ll get rubles and place them in deposits for banks, giving liquidity to the economy.”

Call it less than amicable divorce, call it what you will: what it is, is Russia violently leaving the ranks of countries that exchange crude for US paper.

What we are seeing are the strategic moves that will eventually catalyze the next great war. And make no mistake, this is exactly what’s in store for the world should these escalations continue.

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The Clash Of Civilizations


The death of patriotism


Most of the ones in office now would sell out the country for 10 pieces of silver they are the scum of the earth!

Freedom Is Precious, And Can Be Taken Away In The Blink Of An Eye. Just Look At What’s Happening In Sweden


Sweden is done and its a race to the bottom between all the old countries of Europe, non of which will survive till mid century. The exception could be Germany but that is only a possibility and that is only if the Green’s wake up to what is going on!

deacon303's avatarWhiskey Tango Foxtrot

Don’t think for a second this can’t happen here. We have a Constitution that is regularly ignored, and an entire mass of people who tell you what you can and cannot say – then call it being “fair” and “politically correct.” Not only could it happen here, we’re already doing it to ourselves.

Holy crap.

According to that sourcelink, and this one, a new law in Sweden which takes effect now, will allow people to be PROSECUTED for criticizing immigration.  They can also be prosecuted for criticizing politicians’ unwillingness to address immigration.

This is for real, y’all.

Apparently, parliament voted on this issue after a member of the Constitutional Committee, Andrew Norlen, pushed it, claiming it would help deter people from complaining about their country.

He said, “I do not think it takes very many prosecutions before a signal is transmitted in the community that the internet is not…

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“BRICS most important element of global governance”


Today the currency swaps when into effect primarily between Russia and China but other as well and the movement is growing!

Ditching US dollar: China, Russia launch financial tools in local currencies


The end of the dollar dominance is almost over thanks to Obama and his policies!

China To Launch Yuan Swap Trading With Russian Rubles On Monday


If what this post says does happen it will be the end of the Dollar as a reserve currency.

Oh yeah, take that! – North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un Calls President Obama “a monkey”…