The British Election – Socialists Lose Big Time


Conservatives are now in full control of Parliament, and Britain took one major step closer to leaving the European Union. The socialist Jeremy Corbyn said he would not lead the Labour Party in another election. All the hype about socialism and how they have been so vocal has resulted in what our computer has been projecting – not this time. There has been a shift extremely left in many elections including those in the United States. But for all the noise, yelling, and screaming, socialism is dying.

The British election was called because the opponents of BREXIT did everything in their power to obstruct the democratic result of the referendum to leave the EU. They had the audacity to claim the people were too stupid and did not understand what they were voting for because the politicians have continued to want to surrender British sovereignty to Brussels while for some they would lose their pensions.

While the election began as a second referendum on BREXIT when the polls showed that the Conservative Party of Prime Minister Boris Johnson was well ahead of Labour, the Labour Party did what politicians are great at – tried to change the subject. The Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, turned the election away from BREXIT, which he knew he would lose, and transformed it to the claim that the Conservatives would sell Britain’s National Health Service to Americans. That was really absurd since the U.S. government cannot deal with Obamacare yet they were going to take over Britain’s failing health system?

The significance of this election is demonstrating the rising frustration with governments. As they say, it is better to deal with the devil you know and in that case, it is British Parliament. The British people have no right whatsoever to vote on the policies coming from Brussels. The British government loses every time in any dispute with Brussels. It has been simply a relationship that has never enjoyed mutual respect.

 

Wakey Wakey – Exit Polls Show Landslide Conservative Boris Johnson Win in U.K. Elections – Open Discussion Thread….


A “landslide”, a complete “wipe-out”, a “massive victory” appears looming for Boris Johnson and the conservative party in the U.K. if exit polls are accurate.

These blowout results guarantee a faster Brexit from the European Union and the leftist labor party in the U.K. has been crushed.  Conservatives look to have picked up 50 seats and Labor has lost 71 seats; the Scottish National Party (SNP) has picked up 20.

The “Remainers” in the U.K. have been decimated, and the voters who want to “Leave” the EU have fueled a massive victory for Boris Johnson.  Liberal heads are blown-out, bigly.

(Via Daily Mail) Boris Johnson hailed his new blue-collar Tory army tonight as it emerged he is on track to secure a staggering landslide in the election battle – with Labour’s ‘red wall’ of Brexit-backing strongholds imploding.

A dramatic exit poll shows voters handing the Tories a massive 368 seats, with Labour languishing on 191 – down 71 on 2017 and the worst performance in modern history.

The bombshell numbers would give a huge Commons majority of 86, the biggest since Margaret Thatcher’s triumph in 1987, and are equivalent to a 10-point lead in the popular vote. (more)

This result also has massive ramifications for a U.S-U.K trade deal; and subsequently major leverage for the U.S. (independently) and a U.S. – U.K. alliance in future trade negotiations against the European Union.

Brexit & Generations


QUESTION:

Hi Martin

I live in the UK and I’m thinking

“Is there anyone out there that thinks the same way as I do about Brexit..??? Because no one on TV or in the media look at the Brexit situation like I do…??

However. Every single person I speak to. “Do actually agree with what I say..!!”
Here is my thinking….!!!!

1:- Why did I and many people vote for Brexit???
Answer:- Because we want to be “Free of control” from the EU….!!!
(While it was just a trading agreement it was OK.)
But when it (the EU) took control over our Laws, Jurisdiction, Parliament & or very existence without the ordinary guy in the street having any say about it.
It became something of a dictatorship.

2:- What situation do we find ourselves in now….???
Answer:- we are still under the control of the EU But in addition, we are now under the control of our own Government….!!!!

The ordinary guy in the street still has not got what he asked for…… “To Exit the EU…!!” To my mind “It’s plain and simple….!!”. This type of so-called democracy. “DOES NOT WORK…!!!”. In fact, I don’t think You can call it “Democracy” in the true sense of the word….!!!!

I would like to know what other people feel about not only Brexit. But all other “So-called” Democracies……????.
And with all the riots going on around the world now, are we heading towards a worldwide revolution by the peoples of the world…….??????
Because that’s what it seems like to me.

Kind Regards
JC in Central England

ANSWER: You are correct. The EU has deliberately rejected democracy because the elite believes that one European government will eliminate war. They have tried to create a single government, but have simultaneously refused to have consolidated the debts. Had they done that and Britain had joined, then it would be next to impossible to exit because of the debt.

We are witnessing a worldwide revolution indeed. People are rising up against governments in general because it is obvious that corruption has become standard. Additionally, we have the third generation from World War II, which means their values have completely changed from the 1st generation. This has a host of differences from what they consider to be viable to ethics. This is one reason why the younger generations do not look at silver or gold as the first generation.

FREXIT – Is France Hurling toward Exiting the EU?


France is by no means calming down. There is a major underlying problem in France which is rising to the surface in direct confrontation with the government and Macron’s ambition to lead Europe. Macron’s confrontation with Trump over NATO is a reflection of a historical posture of the French government that has resented both Germany and the United States. Macron had said, “The Atlantic alliance can only be restored in one way, through restoring the unity of Europe.” The twelve founding members set up a headquarters together for the first time in London in 1950.

NATO Headquarters was located at 13, Belgrave Square. The last meeting to be held in London before the move to Paris was on April 1, 1952, which coincided with NATO’s third anniversary.  NATO was forced to move its headquarters from Porte Dauphine in Paris, France (the A building for Alliance) following the French withdrawal from NATO, which then moved to Brussels, Belgium in 1967.

Macron did not advocate that France should pull out of NATO as was the case under  President de Gaulle. Indeed, de Gaulle did withdraw France from NATO’s military structure in 1966, yet it remained an Ally. Macron has been also pushing for a European Army. Clearly, Macron’s agenda has been to federalize Europe and that is clashing with the people. He is NOT a proponent in having the USA a major part of NATO according to reliable sources.

Macron has been pushing economic reforms to curtail the social benefits in France in his effort to federalize Europe. In protest of his planned reforms in the pension system, the unions have organized several general strikes, which are now being joined by the yellow vests. This has resulted in bringing in hundreds of thousands of protesters to the streets. The problem which Macron faces is that France’s economic performance can no longer finance the generous welfare state which is far beyond international standards.

Everything points to a major political crisis brewing i9n France and there is talk that perhaps France should also now move to exit the EU – FREXIT. According to Harris Interactive poll taken 26–28 of November 2019,  Macron has a favorable rating of only 39% and a disproval rating of 61%. His push to federalize Europe may be his undoing. Macron admitted in January 2018 that if the French people were given a right to vote of FREXIT, a simple yes / no response to such a complex question, the French would “probably” have voted for FREXIT.

There is no question that there remains a serious risk that FREXIT can also be on the horizon for the driving force is the collapsing economic structure of socialism. American politicians will one day face the very same crisis. All the promises of benefits are coming to an end

The Opium War


BREXIT & Pound Rally


One of the major distinction is how politics has degenerated into who knows what, all we need to do is look at BREXIT and the chaos of the British elections come the 13th. We have never seen an election where former prime ministers have intervened to disrupt an election as they have this time around. Instead of coming out to support their successors, the former Prime Minister John Major, who staged the coup against Margaret Thatcher in an attempt to abolish the pound and join the Euro along with former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair have both been condemning the leaders and questioning whether voters should back them over their positions on BREXIT. Both men support the full surrender of all sovereignty of Britain no matter what they claim. They both believe in trying to create the United States of Europe.

Meanwhile, Senior Diplomat Alexandra Hall Hall has left the UK diplomatic service over BREXIT claiming she is not taking a position. Her resignation letter read:

“I have been increasingly dismayed by the way in which our political leaders have tried to deliver Brexit, with reluctance to address honestly, even with our own citizens, the challenges and trade-offs which Brexit involves; the use of misleading or disingenuous arguments about the implications of the various options before us; and some behaviour towards our institutions, which, were it happening in another country, we would almost certainly as diplomats have received instructions to register our concern.” 

Hall is really against BREXIT and her resignation one week before the election demonstrates that she is trying to “influence” the election rather than truly expressing her patriotic frustration. You would expect her to wait for the election to see if anything changes. Resigning ahead of the election and blaming the politicians is absolutely a staged ploy.

The British Pound has pushed above the key 1.18 level against the Euro and 1.31 against the U.S. Dollar over the last week among the rise in expectations for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party to win a majority at the polls next week. This would mean no coalition and it would be a rejection of Labour which has become extremely left wing. Despite the resignation of Hall and both Major and Blair coming out against BREXIT, the markets are showing relief that Labour will lose.

Stunning News in Canada – Economy Loses 71,200 Jobs, Unemployment Jumps to 5.9%…


Elections have consequences.  On the same day the U.S. economy reports astoundingly successful jobs growth of 226,000 jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5 percent; the Canadian state economic minister reports surprisingly terrible jobs losses of 72,200 jobs and a jump in unemployment from 5.5 to 5.9 percent.

The Canadian economy is roughly one-tenth the size of the U.S. So in equivalent terms the results from Canada reflect a comparative loss of 720,000 jobs on the same day the U.S. revises all figures upward to over 300,000 gains.  A stunning economic contrast:

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Canadian job market lost a surprise 71,200 net positions in November while the unemployment rate rose to 5.9%, the highest in more than a year, data showed on Friday, as analysts said a repeat of the weak numbers could force the Bank of Canada to rethink its monetary policy.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a gain of 10,000 jobs and had predicted the unemployment rate would hold steady at 5.5%. […] November’s numbers followed a weak report in October, when the labor market unexpectedly shed jobs despite a likely boost from hiring related to the federal election.

[…] Canada’s goods-producing industries saw a decline of 26,600 net jobs, largely on manufacturing. The services sector lost 44,400 net jobs.

November’s unemployment rate was the highest seen since the 6.0% reported in August 2018. 38,400 full-time jobs and 32,800 part-time jobs were lost in November. (read more)

It is worth remembering that Canada does not allow competition in their media sector.  The Canadian government considers the news media a protected “cultural industry”; and through a process of subsidizing broadcast all news media is essentially state run media.

Why is this important?  Well, when the expressed priority of the government is controlling broadcast information if you are intellectually honest you should apply that same ideological outlook toward any information from the government in a general sense.

The Canadian election was held on October 21st, 2019.  The central control government of Justin Trudeau would likely hold-back any negative economic information in an effort to support the ideology of the central government and maintain public opinion in advance of the voting.  However, with the election over the economic books need to be reconciled.

I strongly suspect the Canadian November jobs report encompasses some of that state run reconciliation effort.  Meaning the Canadian economy was in much worse shape in the months leading up to the election than state media were broadcasting.  The reality is now catching up….

Secondly, it was obvious in July of this year that Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Justin Trudeau entered into an agreement of mutual benefit.  Trudeau would hold back submission of the USMCA for parliamentary ratification, and left-wing political ideologues in the U.S. would help Trudeau win re-election.

At the time CTH forewarned of what this type of political arrangement really meant.

In essence Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was willing to compromise the health of his own economy for stunningly political reasons.  There was a perfect storm of negative economic dynamics clearly visible on the horizon…. but few were paying attention.

In combination with leftist economic policies on energy development that strangles economic growth through excessive regulation, the leftist government of Trudeau has dismantled the natural underpinnings of a market-based economy.  The manufacturing base of Canada is compromised, perhaps to the point of no return.

For two decades liberal (left-wing) Canadian policy essentially transformed their economic model from manufacturing to “assembly“.   The goods-based production within the Canadian economy was structured to take advantage of the NAFTA loophole.

Goods production in Canada was reduced from full manufacturing to a process of assembling parts brought in from overseas and then selling them into the U.S. market.   This process exploited the NAFTA loophole allowing foreign companies to ship parts to Canada and then assemble for transport into the U.S. without tariffs.

Over time the Canadian economy became more and more dependent on this system of brokering goods, while Canada simultaneously dismantled their heavy industry at the request of extreme environmentalists.

The Canadian assembly system for durable goods was always at risk of the NAFTA loophole being closed.  When President Trump renegotiated the USMCA, primarily with Mexico, the loophole was closed.  The USMCA rules on origination now require the parts to come from inside the North American manufacturing system.

Importing parts from Asia and simply assembling them in Canada is no longer permitted under the USMCA agreement.  The majority of the parts -which require heavy industry to produce- must originate from North America.  Canada has little capacity to take advantage of this economic opportunity because they dismantled their heavy industry.

As a consequence, if any multinational company wanting to invest in a manufacturing system, that avoids tariffs, to bring their end product to the massive U.S. market… well, Canada is no longer a viable option for that investment.

The multinational banks and investment groups who fund corporate manufacturing investment; and who are now no longer willing to underwrite Asian investment due to the impact of Trump tariffs; are focusing on where that investment can support the economic activity.

As with this latest report, when we see: “Canada’s goods-producing industries saw a decline of 26,600 net jobs, largely on manufacturing” leading the headline, this is a direct consequence of the economic dynamic identified above.

Elections have consequences; and those economic consequences are extraordinarily impactful in the era when U.S. President Trump is dismantling global supply chains; focusing on bringing high-wage manufacturing industry back to the U.S; and driving a process of profound consequence through economic nationalism.

Economic Security is National Security” ~ President Trump

Italy & the Euro


QUESTION: Dear Mr Armstrong,
When will the Euro begin the final drop against the USD?
My second question is property in Italy seems to be rising. Is this what you referred to a currency inflation?

CDP

ANSWER: The decline in the euro since 2008 has been steady, but gradual to some extent. The EU government has been warning banks not to accept short positions and they have done their best to try to hold the currency. The final blow comes ONLY when the general public realizes that there is a problem with all central banks. They cannot support the economy while the fiscal side makes no effort at reform. That is more likely in the 2021-2022 time period.

As far as property in Italy is concerned, Italians have a cultural attachment to property. Many have more than one place. They have traditionally sought to park money in property because the Italian lira was in a perpetual decline.

Pension funds on a global scale will become a major crisis. Japan has the worst aging population. However, the same problem exists in Europe and America. This is a long-term issue rather than instantly, right now

German Politics


QUESTION:

Hi Martin,

It can not be said enough: thank you for everything that you do.

I have a question that has been bothering me for some time now. I haven’t had the time to compose it until now.

You often talk of the fact that Hitler was elected with only 30% of the vote, and was allowed to propagate because of it. This changed the face of Europe and the world.

Was this the same for Merkel? Was she allowed, with only 30% of the vote, to open the borders and so change the face of Europe for decades to come?

If so, then Germany, with all its preoccupation about hyperinflation, has misread history and so should have focused on electoral reform rather than austerity.

Thanks, from a dedicated daily reader,

D

ANSWER: Yes, political reform in Germany is really essential. At the very least, it should adopt the French system where the first round of voting reduces the multi-party factions to two. Then the people have to vote between them. In the case of Germany, they form governments from groups to form coalitions. This means there must be compromises in what the people voted for. It is wrong that those compromises are then decided by politicians rather than the people. The next result, someone with only 30% can change the face of Germany and Europe

Germany to Separate North v South by 2030


QUESTION:

Martin,

Following the recent State elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia which reflected voter disillusionment and discontent with the CDU and SPD how do you view the German political scene to the 2021 Federal election?

JR

REPLY: Bavaria came into existence in 1806 when Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire. It was at this time that Bavaria’s land area was greatly expanded. Our cyclical model on Bavaria suggests that it will separate from northern Germany by 2030. This will be inspired by the austerity policies that have devastated the local economy. However, this will only be augmented by the difference in religion between Protestant v Catholic. That was also a factor in why Bavaria joined with Austria, which was also Catholic, in the Austro-Prussian War that resulted in Bavaria’s defeat in 1866. Bavaria had to cede several Lower Franconian districts to Prussia.

The Bavarian conservative party, the CSU, lost its absolute majority once the Economic Confidence Model turned in 2017 during the subsequent election in 2018. Meanwhile, the Greens emerged as the second-largest political force in southern Germany. Additionally, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is impacting the municipal level and the austerity policies imposed by the north continue to brew civil discontent. The loss of the CSU in Germany undermined the survivability of Merkel which instigated her demise.

The civil unrest will turn upward sharply when this current wave concludes 2021.32. The eventual separation of Germany will most likely unfold by 2030 at the earliest.