The Central Bankers Are Crazy & Public is Out Of Its Mind – Where’s the Beef?


The central bankers are simply crazy, not evil. They are trying to steer the economy by utilizing this simpleton theory that if you make something cheaper, someone will buy it. Japanese and German cars managed to get a major foothold in the U.S. because the quality of U.S. manufacturers collapsed, thanks to unions. The socialist battle against corporations forgot something important – the ultimate decision maker is the consumer. The last American car I bought in the 1970s simply caught on fire while parked in my driveway. Another friend bought a brand-new American car and there was a terrible rattle. When they took the door panel off, there was an empty bottle of Coke inside. Cheaper does not always cut it. Gee, shall we cheer if the stock market goes down by 90%? It would be a lot cheaper. Why does the same theory not apply?

Crazy IIThen we have the trading public. If the central bankers have gone crazy with this whole negative interest rate theory, then the public is simply out of their minds. The euro rallied because Draghi cut rates further, extended the stimulus another year, increased the amount by another 33%, and then declared rates would stay there for years to come. And these insane traders cheer. Unbelievable! They are celebrating the public admission of Draghi that all his efforts to date have failed, so let’s do even more of the same. And they love this nonsense? Negative interest rates have become simply a tax on saving money and the stupid traders and media writers love it. The Fed tries to raise rates and they say – NO! This is a stunning combination of admission and stupidity that one would expect from a pretty but clueless girl and her drunk college boyfriend who can’t say no to any girl:

“I asked John if he slept with Karen and got his admittal!”

“Oh that’s cool, I think it’s probably about time you stopped drinking.”

All they see is that lower interest rates “should” stimulate but ignore the fact that they never do. They are too stupid to grasp the fact that raising taxes cannot be offset by lower interest rates. People judge everything by the bottom-line and not some crazy theory that just stupid. A simple correlation study by a high school student in math class would prove this theory does not correlate to expected outcome. And we cheer this insanity confirming our own overall stupidity and one is left wondering who is crazier? I suppose it is just that central bankers are crazy and the public, as well as the media, are just out of their minds.

It reminds me of the old TV commercial by Wendys:

The European Refugee Crisis is Destroying Europe


Ever since the Cologne sexual assaults by the refugees, things have gotten far worse in Germany. The press tends to still hide the crisis. Nevertheless, drawing only from German media reports which have made it to the public, a list documenting more than 160 instances of rape and sexual assault committed by refugees in train stations, swimming pools and other public places against victims as young as seven have been eye-opening to say the least. This is going to have a profound impact in the German elections next year but it is also tearing Europe apart and pressure builds to close borders to prevent these people from spreading out from Germany to the rest of Europe.

German Sexual Assaults

The New York-based conservative think tank Gatestone Institute has compiled a shocking list of sexual assaults and rapes by migrants in Germany in just the first two months of the year. This is stunning to put it mildly. Merkel does not appear to be able to survive this crisis.

German News-20160307 German News-20160307-2 German News-20160307-3

Then nearly everyday some knife attacks among refugees are reported in the Austrian press. We have Africans against Arabs and those from Chechnya are against Afghanistan. In Austria, the general public is becoming terrified to even walk outside in many areas.

Germany on the Threshold of an Unprecedented Radicalization

Maassen Hans-Georg

The president of the German secret service, Hans-Georg Maassen, has come out and warned that the uncontrolled immigration has created a serious safety risk to Germany because the authorities no longer know who is in the country. If people think U.S. politics are going in the gutter, look at Germany where politicians have created a clash between polarized left and right-wing extremism. Maassen warned that an Islamist or right-wing attack in Germany could lead to an explosion of social unrest. Maassen has virtually shown that Merkel’s decisions have placed Germany at serious risk, but has also fueled the movement to end the Eurozone.


Merkel’s decision happened at the worst possible timing. As the European economy turns down further, the cost of the refugees will send taxes even higher. The civil unrest our model has been predicting is on schedule. It is linked to the economy and when that turns down, this cycle will turn up.

The coming Collapse of the EU

EU Flag 300

Our long-term projection models targeted March 13/14th, 2016 for when the confidence in the EU would begin to crack much more profoundly among the average community. Indeed, the general view about the EU’s future has begun to to just plummet as reported in every member state (28 in total) with the exception of just three: member states, most strikingly in the Netherlands and Germany, where people are now overwhelmingly negative about the outlook for the union. Where the EU remains with the smallest amount of pessimists is actually Ireland coming in at 20% with Greece leading the pack at 63%. The pessimism has increased by 20% in the past year alone. It appears the computer has again successfully targeted the correct period but this feat is accomplished by looking at the business cycle. It is very clear that once the cycle turns down, confidence collapses.

UK - Euro Flags

BREXITIn Britain, 44% of the population are now against staying in the EU. Clearly, the number one issue has been the wholesale migration ushered in by Merkel or Islamic hordes. David Cameron announced the referendum would take place June 23rd. He initially agreed to such a vote because he never thought in a million years the British would vote to get out. Now the polls have narrowed and despite the media supporting Cameron and the EU, they seem unlikely to with their brainwashing campaign to stay in Europe. Despite the fact that Cameron has been trying to use scare-tactics against his pwn people to stay in the EU, he has also said that his authority rests on holding the vote on British membership, and that does not mean winning it. Cameron has no plans on stepping down if the people vote to for BREXIT. The likelihood of the British votes being rigged is EXTREMELY HIGH, because Brussels fear a contagion and since 25 out of 28 member states have seen extremely high pessimistic view of Brussels, you are looking at a massive loss of government jobs so it is unlikely Brussels will simply go quietly into the light.


The Total Incompetence of Career Politicans

Bubble-Gum MachineSomeone really needs to do a study of people who seem to want to rule the world yet have absolutely no clue what they are doing, which is really 98% of all politicians. What drives these people? Is it just greed to sell influence and get outrageous speaking fees? Until we end career politicians, we will never achieve peace economically or militarily. I have stated before, ALL Republics degenerate into oligarchies. They do not call Goldman Sachs “Government Sachs” for no reason. They buy government to further their special interests and I believe to ensure no banker will ever go to jail. What they paid Hillary for 3 speeches is more than the net worth of Bernie Sanders for his entire life.

I have criticized those in government for being totally incompetent to the point that they could not manage a bubble gum machine. Some comments said I have been too hard on them. Well, I reported that Germany could not account for 600,000 of the 1.1 million refugees that they let into Europe. Now, they cannot account for 5,000 children who entered the country unaccompanied, 400 of whom are under the age of 13. We are in such trouble with government incompetence it is not even a joke.

Obama wants to impose a $10 per barrel tax on oil. He is so dishonest, it is beyond comprehension. He claims the energy companies will pay it as if the consumer will not. If he really believed this nonsense, it proves he seriously needs a mental examination for he has lost any sanity if he ever had it to start with.

This is a very real cycle and not just for money!

The 86-Year Cycle is All Around Us


COMMENT: Marty, you have done a fantastic job in teaching us to look and observe. I noticed your post on the monetary reform of Trajan in 107AD. You mention he demonetized all coinage prior to Nero’s debasement in 64AD. Wow, that was 43 years or half your 86 year monetary crisis cycle. When you look, it is like the movie Matrix. Suddenly you see the code everywhere around you.

Amazing research. I can see why they wanted to silence you.

Thanks so much


Romane Imperial Debasement

REPLY: Excellent. It is all around us if you just let go of the prejudice and see the world as it truly is. Cycles are how energy flows, from sound and light to the cycles in your heart, no less your brain waves. It is stunning how petty people are who try to find fault (typically in relation to gold) just so they can be right. They are so blind that they fail to grasp that this is about understanding our environment, not whether gold peaks one week or the next. They have no interest in comprehending anything. Others are married to political philosophies and are so entrenched they deserve what they get. For the rest of us, the pursuit of knowledge is a journey that never ends. As they say, when there is nothing left to learn, it is time to die.

Rome Collapse 86 Years

Joe Biden Talks With Turkey’s Recep Erdogan as Mitch McConnell Tees Up Authorization for Military Force Against ISIS…

Washington and Brussels have the proverbial Tiger by the tail; except in this case they have multiple Tigers by their collective tails. Russia, China, Syria, ISIS, Germany, India and North Korea; there is no way to control this situation.

There are only a few more years left for the EU.

Schengen Agreement & the Fall of Europe


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, You have been nominated for the FX analyst of the year in 2016 again. True, your calls on the Euro and the Swiss peg were amazing. But what has fascinated me even more is you also forecast that the Schengen Agreement would come to an end before the refugee crisis. Can you elaborate on how these forecasts are even possible for you obviously do what no one else has ever been able to accomplish?

Thank you for a eye-opening blog.


ANSWER: Everything is connected. Nothing takes place in some isolated vacuum. Hopefully, people will open their eyes and see what I see; when they do, it will change how the world is managed. Just the other day, a die-hard Democrat tried to argue that Trump would start World War III and that Hillary has more experience. I said her experience was limited to working at the State Department, hiding her own emails, and setting up a Canadian entity that sold foreign influence to the highest bidder who then deposited the money in her “charity”. Come on. What experience? Then I mentioned how people made the very same argument about Ronald Reagan, saying that he too was a tough “hawk” who would also start World War III. He continued to bring down the Berlin Wall.

When we wake up and realize that the system cannot be altered by one person, then perhaps we will start to investigate the truth. As far as the EU is concerned, it is a total disaster. Brussels is fighting Poland, Hungary has fallen further into an abyss, and passports are being checked again, even between Denmark and Sweden, because now everyone is afraid after Germany allowed rapists and terrorists in and tried to cover it up. In short, the EU is functionally moving into a supernova. Brussels remains in a state of denial and tries to force the EU upon everyone while denying any democratic process in order to save the jobs of the Eurocrats.

dominoesEverything is connected. The Schengen Agreement is just one domino. The Schengen Agreement was wearing down because of economic differences. Let’s be honest here. The ONLY country to have benefited from the creation of the euro was Germany. Why? It eliminated the FX risk for German manufacturers. Thus, Germany was able to expand its trade within Europe. The rest of Europe had to convert their debts to the euro and they doubled. The failed structure of the euro placed tremendous pressure upon the entire world economy. The collapse of the Schengen Agreement was inevitable and not exclusively caused by the refugee crisis.

Euro Bank Notes

So as Mark Twain said, “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” Keep in mind the euro still has a few years left. However, its days are clearly numbered, as we know it today.

More signs the the EU is likely to fail soon!

French Prime Minister: “The European Project Can Fail…”

Valls Manuel Prime Minister

The French Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, said at DAVOS: “The European project can fail if we cannot resolve the security and the issue of refugees.” The idea behind the euro was that a single currency would expand the European economy and allow for free movement. That dream is coming to an end for they see that closing the borders will close trade and that reverses everything.

The two worst mistakes have been (1) the failure to consolidate member debt, and (2) accepting refugees by the millions from a region that is hostile. For intelligent people, they have demonstrated that book smart is still dumb.

The End of the EU Part Three!

Europe Moving Into Meltdown?


QUESTION: Marty, now the OECD is predicting a financial crash worse than the 2007-2009 event in Europe because they say there is over €1 trillion in bad loans that cannot be collected. They seem to be also changing their opinion to fit your model. Were they there in Berlin?

ANSWER: We cannot comment on if the OECD is following our model or who is attending a conference. They are the most widely attended and many just want to know where the computer stands.

We see a massive banking crisis. The European banks are in deep trouble. Deutsche Bank posted a shocking €6.7 billion euro loss with its shares falling 10% in a day. HSBC bought Republic National Bank in New York for a bit more than that. Barclay’s is pulling out of all emerging markets cutting 1,000+ jobs.

The collapse in commodities will reek havoc on all emerging market countries, but there is one economy which nobody pays attention to closely. That is Germany. Yes it is the largest economy and main supporter of the Euro. They need open borders and the Euro to maintain their economy which is EXPORT driven. China is advancing more rapidly than Germany and has focused on trying to develop its internal economy. Spain was the richest nation in Europe with all the gold coming in from America. But they failed to develop their internal economy and collapsed. Germany is declining. It cannot be sustain with open borders and the Euro because the rest of Europe is in serious decline. The refugee crisis is a nightmare and now Italy demands taxpayer money to bailout banks fearful that a bail-in will cause a revolution.

Merkel was against allowing in refugees previously, but then changed her position to combat her poor view for the treatment of Greece and then the brilliant idea of bringing in cheap labor again to help Germany. This entire refugee crisis is far beyond control and now the elites are beside themselves for the manipulations.

German Federal Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who is also head of the SPD, warned at the Economic Forum in Davos of a return to border fences and controls. That would be an economic disaster and would be rising unemployment. This is the German EXPORT model – that and the Euro. But it is coming and with it, the further decline of Germany. This will only fuel the dollar rally when Europeans realize that the break-up of the Euro may lead to Deutsche marks, but will they be better? Now even Soros is saying the collapse of the Euro is inevitable. So everyone is now joining the party; a bit late, but as they say, better late than never.

IBEUUS-Y TEK TO 2020 1-22-2016

So welcome to the other side of 2015.75. We have a long way to go down into 2020. Here are only the technical projections. They also warn just taking out the 89 level produces a free-fall. This is unfortunately looking more and more like a total disaster of political incompetence and complete self-interest mismanagement.


The career politicians are incapable of saving Europe and instead are the very people pushing it over the edge. All they are focused on is saving their own ass in Brussels with their pensions. Jean-Claude Juncker has done such a great job destroying Europe, he was given a retroactive pay increase to more than €32,000 PER MONTH. Socrates would do a better job and we would charge based upon performance.

Can a computer be president? Hm. Way of the future?