Tag Archives: Obama Domestic policy

May 8 2017

Why Central Banks & Buying Equities


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

Re-Posted May 8, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Why is the Swiss Central Bank buying American equities? On the one hand you would think it is manipulation, but on the other, why manipulate the US share market?

Any clue since you have met with them directly?

LW

ANSWER: I wrote about that explaining that the central banks have been buying equities since 2014. The Swiss National Bank posted its latest 13-F holdings showing it has been buying equities at a stepped up pace during the first quarter 2017. Their total equity holdings have now reached $80.4 billion, up $17 billion from the $63.4 billion at the end of 2016.

The central banks are trapped. Lowering interest rates to virtually zero reduced their yield on reserves and they cannot sell off government securities. The only viable hedge is US treasuries in the bond world against the chaos of the Eurozone. That offers no diversification just more government debt. The ECB owns 40% of European government debt. The Swiss are buying US equities as a hedge against the Euro and political unrest. This is not manipulation. They lost a fortune trying to maintain the peg the franc with the Euro. They cannot use pegs, so the only alternative to just buying US Treasuries is private equities.

The central bankers understand what our model is warning about. As confidence continues to decline in governments, the central banks can go bankrupt UNLESS they too diversify out of government bonds.

Granted, nobody wants to talk about this yet in public. This is NOT manipulation – this is cover your ass time. We have been recommending this trade to institutions for the past 5 years

May 7 2017

California Wants to Tax Space Flights Per Mile They Travel


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

California Taxing Rockets

Believe it or not, the California Politicians & Regulators just spend all their time trying to figure out how to tax something new for they will never reform, it’s always give me more. California wants to collect taxes from space transportation companies based upon, get this, a formula of how frequent a company launches spacecrafts out of the state, and most absurdly, how far a commercial spacecraft travels from California soil. They want to tax space travel per mile and claim 62 miles above California belongs to the State. Sooner or later, they will want a tax from all satellites that just pass by their state once a day.The space launches are taking place from Vandenberg Air Force Base, in Santa Barbara.

The California Politicians are a special breed. They must have brain damage or they are just so corrupt it is no longer funny. They have claimed that taxing space travel from California “will lead to increased activity in the industry and will foster an atmosphere of growth and prosperity once present during the golden age of California’s aviation industry, thereby creating jobs as the industry thrives in this state.”

Any company should look for prosperity in Texas or Florida and forget California. The State is beyond help at this stage.

This should be the new theme song for California

May 6 2017

Hunting Tourists in Europe for Fines


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Milan Bus

COMMENT:

Hi Marty,

The hunt for taxes is really getting out of control.

I enjoyed a week of vacation in Italy and on my way back home I had a few hours to kill in Milan.
So i decided to spend some time in the City center of Milan before leaving from Linate airport.

I bought 3 bus tickets Linate – Milan, enjoyed my stay and on my way back I bought again 3 tickets.
On my way back to the airport the bus way half full, many of them tourists like me on their way to the airport.

Halfway 2 public officers got on the bus and started to check for valid bus tickets.
Although I nicely bought my tickets (6 in total) I did get fined because I did not validated my tickets in a machine that was nowhere in site.

Tickets where completely in Italian language, not even the bus driver pointed out to stamp the tickets.
No excuse was taken seriously. The fine had to be payed.

What stroke me was that only the non local persons on the bus got checked (easily identified by caring luggage).
All locals/native Italian where left alone.

After discussing this with Italian friends at the airport, I understood this was just common practice.
The Italian public officers are worse than mafia.
RVL

REPLY: Italy is becoming notorious for extorting tourists. If you rent a car, after one year they will start sending you traffic tickets and never identify where or when you committed some offense. One friend paid the first ticket, then the second, and stopped paying. When they sent me tickets from Rome, I refused to even pay anything. They then turned it over to a collection agency and I blew them off the phone so aggressively they never called again. They cannot legally turn it over to a collection agency with no validation of anything and they can never put it on your credit report. It’s just one giant fraud. The collection agency cannot prove you owe anything.

Use taxis and make sure they turn on the meter. They like to talk and pretend to be friendly to distract you from noticing they never turned on the meter. They then try to get you to pay twice or three time what the trip would have been.

Ah – the pleasures of tourism in Europe these days. France is no better. You have a red target on your forehead and it says sucker.

May 6 2017

French Elections – A Sell Signal Long-term for the EU Regardless of Who Wins


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted May 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

2017 Election

QUESTION:  Martin, I know your computer has a prediction for the French election and I am sure you have an opinion, I am of the opinion that the French deplorables will come out in mass to vote for LePen. Vive la France!!! What is your opinion. This could be the event that crumbles the EU for good. Thoughts?

ANSWER: This is the craziest election because the computer projected Le Pen would beat both the socialists and the conservatives back in 2015. I gave that forecast back then when it really sounded nuts. It’s my job to say what the computer is forecasting. I have learned over the years that my opinion comes in second-place.

So strangely, the computer is correct even if Macron wins because all mainstream parties were defeated by Le Pen in the first round.

I really hope Le Pen wins because that will force Brussels to look in a mirror just once. If Macron wins, we are looking at a very hard landing for the EU next year. This will probably rise up even violently and places Europe at risk of civil war from the standpoint that Brussels has federalized Europe behind everyone’s back.

The French polls being reported put Macron at 63% and Le Pen at 37%. Her followers will be more passionate about voting and the polls are making a serious mistake as they did in BREXIT. They are trying to manipulate the election. Even Brussels is desperately trying to hand out huge bills to leave. They want €100 billion from Britain and they have threatened Italy and France if they try to leave. How do they enforce their demands? Invade with the federal army they are trying to build? Or will Germany, Netherlands and others lend troops to invade Italy or France? Oh, let’s see. The reason to federalize Europe was to eliminate European War. Hm!

CAC40-M 1998-2017

 

The CAC40 has finally broken the Downtrend Line on the Monthly Chart. This has not been because of bullishness for the French Economy – this is capital fleeing the government sectors and running into private assets. With BREXIT, the bankers support the government ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even HSBC said they would leave Britain if BREXIT passed and move to Paris. Hm. The European banking system is in serious danger of crumbling. A good stiff wind can blow it over. ANY bank that were to be stupid enough to move to the EU is a MAJOR SHORT for the long-term.

May 5 2017

Italy Dependent On ECB “Buyer Of Last Resort” As Foreign Investors Dump Bonds Amid Capital Flight


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 5, 2017 7:51 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Italy is increasingly dependent on the ECB to hold down bond yields as foreign investors dump Italian bonds like mad.

Eurointelligence bills this as “Further Evidence of Capital Flight in Italy“. 

In a column earlier this week, Federico Fubini notes that, according to the Bank of International Settlements, in 2016 international banks reduced their exposure to Italy by 15%, or over $100bn, half of it in the last quarter of the year. The counterpart to this exposure reduction is the increase in the negative Target2 balance of Italy, which the ECB has already attributed to foreign investors selling into its asset purchase programs, and reinvesting the proceeds away from Italy. As a result of all this, Italy’s financial stability is increasingly dependent on the ECB.

The Capital Flight article by Federico Fubini is in Italian. Here is an unmodified snip from the article.

Distrust Widespread

Clearly, therefore, there is a conspiracy, but a widespread distrust of the direction being taken in the third euro area economy. Especially the banking system in Germany seems to have developed a deep-seated distrust. His exposure to the country late last year is worth little more than a quarter of that of the French banks, and now has dropped so much that is 30% below that that German institutions had on Italy at Euro 1999 debut. No other major banking system has implemented a retreat of these proportions, as if the integration of the single currency had never even begun.

The loss of one hundred billion dollars by large foreign banking investors would be a blow, not for purchases of Italian bonds by the European Central Bank. Throughout 2016 we continued at the rate of about ten billion Euros per month, on corporate bonds and especially on sovereign bonds. In fact the release of foreign banks is linked to the ECB intervention, because those have the opportunity to sell at the Institute of Frankfurt good part of their Roma government bonds. It is no coincidence if the public debt held abroad fell by 42 billion in just the first nine months of 2016, according to Bruegel. The irruption of the ECB in the market and the withdrawal of foreign banks are thus two sides of the same coin. The result is that the Italian financial stability is becoming more and more dependent on the support of an international institution, that next year will almost certainly cease.

I spoke about this process before in Target2 and Secret Bailouts: Will Germany be Forced Into a Fiscal Union with Rest of Eurozone.

One person I highly respect is adamant (or at least was) that rising Target2 does not represent capital flight.

But what else do you call it when foreign investors dump Italian bonds to ECB, the buyer of only resort

May 5 2017

The Hunt for Taxes is Global


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Hadrian-TaxRevolt

Trajan-Welfare-YouthTaxes are the root of all evil for this is the confrontation against the people that historically leads to civil unrest and then revolution. The American and French Revolutions were over taxes. Historically, even the Roman Empire was forced from time to time to grant tax amnesty as was the case in 119AD. You even have Roman Emperors such a Trajan (98-117AD) engaging in social legislation known as the Alimenta, which was a welfare program that helped orphans and poor children throughout Italy. The Alimenta provided general funds, food and subsidized education for children. The funding came from the Dacian War booty initially. When that ran out, it was funded by a combination of estate taxes and philanthropy.The state provided loans like Fannie Mae providing mortgages on Italian farms (fundi). The registered landowners in Italy received a lump sum from the imperial treasury. In return, the borrower was expected to pay yearly a given proportion of the loan to the maintenance of an Alimentary Fund – a kickback so to speak. Taxes and social programs have been a very long time.

Today, debts are never reduced. Consequently, governments only raise taxes continually. We see this is some of the richest countries in the world. Now Singapore is passing three amendments expanding the power of the Ministry of Finance (MOF) under the Property Tax Act. This new legislation is one that will hand the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) more enforcement and investigative powers. Singapore government is using the law to force people to pay more in taxes. There will be no privacy. Under this legislation, the tax authorities will be able to summon people to appear personally before them and to provide all information. They will be interrogated orally for investigation be it their own taxes, or another person’s property/properties.

Governments are moving ever more closer to totalitarian states eliminating privacy and human rights. This is a global trend that will come to a head for governments will never reduce their costs and will always demand more and more taxes from the people until the bubble bursts.

May 4 2017

March Trade Deficit Shrinks To Smallest Since October


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 4, 2017 8:49 AM

The US Trade Balance shrank to $43.7 billion in March, from an upward revised $43.8 billion in February, marking the month’s deficit the smallest since October and less than the conesnus estimate of $44.5 billion. Imports declined by $1.7 billion, or 0.7%, to $234.7 billion, while exports dipped fractionally more, or 0.9%, even as the recently weaker dollar did little to boost US exports. Notably, the US trade deficit with China was $31.4 billion, followed by the European Union at $10 billion. The trade deficit excluding petroleum stood at $35.82b in March.

The details: the deficit decreased in March 2017 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit decreased from $43.8 billion in February (revised) to $43.7 billion in March, as imports decreased more than exports. The previously published February deficit was $43.6 billion. The goods deficit increased $0.4 billion in March to $65.5 billion. The services surplus increased $0.4 billion in March to $21.8 billion.

The March decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $0.4 billion to $65.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $21.8 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $9.4 billion, or 7.5 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased $38.0 billion or 7.1 percent. Imports increased $47.5 billion or 7.1 percent

Exports

Exports of goods and services decreased $1.7 billion, or 0.9 percent, in March to $191.0 billion. Exports of goods decreased $2.1 billion and exports of services increased $0.4 billion.

  • The decrease in exports of goods mainly reflected decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.8 billion) and in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9 billion). An increase in capital goods ($0.7 billion) partly offset the decreases.
  • The increase in exports of services mainly reflected increases in financial services ($0.1 billion) and in maintenance and repair services ($0.1 billion).

Imports

Imports of goods and services decreased $1.7 billion, or 0.7 percent, in March to $234.7 billion. Imports of goods decreased $1.7 billion and imports of services decreased less than $0.1 billion.

  • The decrease in imports of goods mostly reflected decreases in capital goods ($0.9 billion) and in industrial supplies and materials ($0.7 billion). An increase in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.1 billion) partly offset the decreases.
  • The decrease in imports of services mainly reflected a decrease in transport ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares.

Broken down geographically, the March figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.9), South and Central America ($2.6), Singapore ($0.5), United Kingdom ($0.5), and Brazil ($0.2). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($31.4), European Union ($10.0), Mexico ($6.5), Japan ($6.5), Germany ($5.0), South Korea ($2.5), Italy ($2.1), Canada ($1.9), India ($1.7), OPEC ($1.6), Taiwan ($1.1), Saudi Arabia ($0.8), and France ($0.1).

  • The deficit with Japan increased $1.6 billion to $6.5 billion in March. Exports decreased $0.2billion to $5.3 billion and imports increased $1.4 billion to $11.8 billion.
  • The deficit with South Korea increased $0.6billion to $2.5 billion in March.Exports increased $0.1billion to $3.9 billion and imports increased $0.8 billion to $6.5 billion.
  • The deficit with France decreased $1.2 billion to $0.1 billion in March.Exports increased $0.6billion to $3.3 billion and imports decreased $0.6 billion to $3.5 billion.

While still a significant hole, the declining deficit trend will likely provide some satisfaction to president Trump; that said the US has a monumental task ahead of it if it wants to shrink the gap to zero.

 

May 4 2017

How Small Events Can Cascade into Contagions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts

Re-Posted May 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

COMMENT: Dear Martin Armstrong,

This very unusual video about dominoes is 2½ minute and shows how a small domino can knock over big ones. I remember you writing about a small Austrian bank, Creditanstalt, that in 1931 was the first sign of the economic depression. Maybe these dominoes can illustrate what happened.

I hope you are fine and thank you for this blog

L

REPLY: This is a great example of how a small event can set off a contagion. This is exactly how it works within the global economy

May 4 2017

Changing Cycle Frequencies Produces Different Effects


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted May 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

1-ElectroMagnetic Wavelength

QUESTION: Marty, I’m glad that you’ve showed a couple of examples in the past few articles, as per how you apply ECM and volatility cycle waves to events. Yet, can you please explain the methodology and criteria which you use in deciding how to apply them?

What is the criteria with which you choose the starting date of any particular event? Why do you sometimes apply ECM 51.6 time-units, or 72 (volatility), or 31.4 (Pi), or at times intervals such as 2×8.6 vs 34.4, and so forth?
I do understand the arithmetic and the individual cycles, yet I want to understand how your mind combines the right frequencies and adopts the correct cyclical pattern for analysis. In few words, what is the methodology.

Thanks in advance for everything you’re doing.

—

SB
Wave-Shape
ANSWER: Cycles are identical to light, which always moves in frequencies. Everything within the universe is fractal. So discovering the key then applies in all frames of reference. It is way too complex to answer in a brief note. I promise, I am trying very hard to complete the Geometry of Time. It will take a lot of pages to explain this complex and deep subject.
Nevertheless, with a light wave, alter the frequency length and you get a different effect. Major turning points are the convergence of many cycle frequencies. Each will depart from that same event producing different effects and events in the future. It is all about understanding each wave and what it will produce like radio waves, microwaves, infrared, visible light, ultraviolet, x-rays, and gamma waves. They are all part of the light wave. Change the frequency and you can watch TV or cook din
May 3 2017

Is There Really More Oil in The Golan Heights than in Saudi Arabia? Who’s Genie Energy?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy

Re-Posted May 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Golan_Heights_Map

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong I live in Israel and today I listened to your podcast with Macrovoices. At some point you mentioned that there is more oil in Golan heights than in Saudi Arabia -and this oil belongs to genie energy. Is it true? How can it be that nobody knew nothing about this in Israel? Are you sure 100 % about this information? I will be happy to know more about this.

best regards

EP

Genie Oil & Gas

ANSWER: Yes. This is one of the best kept secrets. You can imagine that if this went into production, then the disputed Syrian land issue occupied by Israel would come to the forefront. This is why it gets no play but this is one reason Obama was working to overthrow the Syrian government. They would not have political people on the Strategic Advisory Board if they did not need political strings pulled.

Politically, you have the Pipe Line from Qatar being one major issue that was to compete with Russia in selling gas to Europe, which is why Putin is involved. He is not involved in Egypt, Israel, or even Afghanistan. This is the reason why Putin has an interest in Syria and the mainstream media of course championed Obama claiming he was defending children. Then we have Genie Oil and strategic oil reserves within occupied Syria. Just look at the people who are are heavy hitters on the Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil!  Not bad for a company nobody has heard of and the glaring issue is why do you need heavy hitters like this just to pump oil? Location! Location! Location! The mainstream media is not going to report on this issue. They even have Rupert Murdoch on their Strategic Advisory Board. This is hush hush in the mainstream media.

Strategic Advisory Board

The Strategic Advisory Board of Genie Oil and Gas advises management on strategic, financial, operational and public policy matters.

Michael Steinhardt (SAB Chairman)
Noted Wall Street investor and Principal Manager, Steinhardt Management LLC. Founder Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz & Co., and noted philanthropist.

Richard (Dick) Cheney
46th Vice President of the United States. Vice President Cheney also served as President and CEO of Halliburton Company and U.S. Secretary of Defense from 1989 to 1993.

Marry Landrieu
United States Senator from Louisiana from 1996 to 2014. Senator Landrieu served as chair of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In her capacity as chair, she sponsored and passed the U.S.-Israel Energy Cooperation Bill. The bill fosters partnerships focused on developing resources such as natural gas and alternative fuels, on the academic, business and governmental levels.

Rupert Murdoch
Founder and Executive Chairman of News Corporation, one of the world’s largest diversified media companies. News Corporation’s holdings include Fox Entertainment, Dow Jones and Company, the New York Post, HarperCollins and significant media assets on six continents.

Bill Richardson
Governor of New Mexico from 2003 to 2011. Mr. Richardson has served asU.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (1997-1998), Energy Secretary in the Clinton administration (1998-2001), Chairman of the 2004 Democratic National Convention, and as Chairman of the Democratic Governors Association.

Jacob Rothschild, OM, GBE
Chairman of the J. Rothschild group of companies and of RIT Capital Partners plc. Chairman of Five Arrows Limited. Lord Rothschild is a noted philanthropist and Chairman of the Rothschild Foundation.

Dr. Lawrence Summers
Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University. Dr. Summers served as the 71st Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton and as Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama.

R. James Woolsey
Director of Central Intelligence from 1993 to 1995 and as Under Secretary of the Navy from 1977 to 1979. Mr. Woolsey is co-founder of the United States Energy Security Council and is Chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies