GM Chevy Cruze, built at Lordstown, OH: (Sales -27% through September 2018). GM Chevy Impala, built at Oshawa, Canada and Hamtramck Michigan: (sales -13%). GM Buick LaCrosse (-14%); and Cadillac CT6 (sales -11%) both built at Hamtramck Michigan.

Following major drops in the sedan sector of the U.S. automotive market, General Motors CEO Mary Barra announced plans to halt production next year at three assembly plants: Lordstown, Ohio; Hamtramck, Michigan; and Oshawa, Ontario. GM will fully stop production on several models assembled at those plants: Chevrolet Cruze, Cadillac CT6 and the Buick LaCrosse.

These cuts could lead to approximately 6,000 to 8,000 lost jobs.

DETROIT/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – General Motors Co said on Monday it will cut production of slow-selling models and slash its North American workforce in the face of a declining market for traditional gas-powered sedans, shifting more investment to electric and autonomous vehicles.

[…] GM’s North American salaried workforce, including engineers and executives, will shrink by 15 percent, or about 8,000 jobs. The company said it will cut executive ranks by 25 per cent to “streamline decision making.”

Even as GM is moving to lay off salaried staff, the company is hiring. At GM’s Detroit headquarters on Monday, there were signs directing people to a “new hire orientation” meeting.

Unlike Japanese automakers Nissan Motor Co Ltd, Honda Motor Co Ltd and Toyota Motor Corp, which rely on a more flexible system where they make multiple vehicles at a single plant, GM has too many factories that make just a single model.

With U.S. car sales lagging, that means several GM car plants have fallen to just one shift, including its Hamtramck and Lordstown assembly plants.

[…] Unlike its plants making passenger cars, many of GM’s plants producing its higher-margin trucks and SUVs are running on three shifts, with some running six and sometimes seven days a week to keep up with demand.  (read more)

The GM, old school, single-line production issue process is part of the problem.  There is a built in risk of functional obsolescence within the business model if a product is no longer selling or favorable to the market.  Hence, Barra’s decision is a market driven outcome.

However, the counter argument from UAW and the White House would be to retool the facilities for products that are consumer-centric with higher demand.  Example: GM is currently building Buick SUV’s in China that could easily be built in the U.S.  Hence, Mrs. Barra has been requested to meet with Economic Council Chairman Larry Kudlow.

Within this type of issue, a new political dynamic emerges where President Trump’s policy, perspective and political views are more in line with traditional democrats than corporate republicans.

Businessman Donald Trump is not adverse to labor unions and has a long history of getting along well with union heads and membership on his projects. As President, Mr Trump understands the blue-collar economic dynamic and favors all larger policies that benefit the U.S. worker; not necessarily the corporation.  Within this dynamic the MAGA coalition is an assembly of middle-class democrats and middle-class republicans.

It will be interesting to see where GM goes with this.  No doubt President Trump will not be happy at the possibility of any job losses and will work to find a win/win that keeps those jobs; even if it means pressuring GM with the threat of tariffs on their Chinese products…

Actions have consequences.  Mexico says they will deport those who attempted to illegally cross the U.S-Mexico border earlier today.

Nice to see a new Mexican government perspective stepping up here to punish unlawful behavior at the border…. though I’m certain the thought of the President Trump closing the border was likely the factor at play.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico will deport migrants from a group of 500 who on Sunday tried to “violently” and “illegally” cross the U.S. border, the Mexican Interior Ministry said in a statement.

The statement added that Mexican authorities had contained the protest at the crossing between Tijuana and San Diego and that, despite heightened tensions there, Mexico would not send military forces to control 7,417 migrants from a caravan currently amassed at the U.S.-Mexico border. (link)

(Link to Tweets)

Canadian media are reporting that General Motors plans to shut down operation in Oshawa, Canada.   This is quite possibly an outcome that portends the sign of things to come…

CANADA – Numerous sources have told CTV Toronto that General Motors is planning to close all operations in Oshawa, Ont., affecting thousands of high-paying jobs.

The announcement is expected to be made on Monday, in the city of about 159,000 people located roughly 60 kilometres east of Toronto.  Sources said they believe the Oshawa closures are part of a global restructuring. (read more)

GM holds considerable risk exposure within the current state of international trade and economics as it relates to the auto industry.  As a result of the ongoing U.S-China trade confrontation, GM holds risk as a result of heavy investment in China.  Add to that exposure the very significant financial impacts about to start for heavy manufacturing operations inside countries aligned with the Paris Climate Treaty, and the risk increases.

Specifically for auto-manufacturers the regulatory costs are unique.  If a manufacturer is depended on the U.S. market as a destination for their products, and the company has existing manufacturing within the U.S, the cost differential means they will likely have to absorb any climate change (regulatory/tax) cost in addition to the looming Trump tariffs.

The best financial play is to drop some of the risk and focus on execution of a business model within the market that is of primary value; that’s the USA.  I would surmise those cost analytics are part of the dynamic at work.

Additionally, last week there was a quiet report of the White House inviting the major EU (mostly German) auto companies for a meeting. [SEE HERE] The German auto companies cannot negotiate trade terms on behalf of the EU; however, their unrecoverable investments in Mexico are surely leverage Trump will use to push their influence over Angela Merkel.

(Reuters) […]  The White House has extended an invitation to German carmakers through the U.S. Embassy in Berlin for a meeting with Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow and Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, said one of the sources.

It was not immediately clear if the U.S. ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, or President Donald Trump would take part.

U.S. officials have grown impatient with the lack of progress on trade issues after a meeting between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in July. (read more)

In Germany, whoever and whatever the auto-sector supports – that’s where the political alignment goes.

So there is a three-way economic strategy at play.  First, on policy – the Paris treaty means all heavy manufacturers within aligned countries will drive up costs.  Secondly, on economics – access to the U.S. market is being leveraged by President Trump via Steel/Aluminum and auto tariffs.  And less obviously, thirdly – a very real possibility of economic/financial punishment underpinning Trump policy as a result of political antagonism via NAFTA (Canada) and Brexit (EU).

I cannot emphasize enough how strategic President Trump is toward the subtle impacts of his MAGAnomic ‘America-First’ policies.

President Donald Trump is stunningly unique. MAGAnomic policy influences behavior through the application of leverage.  However, rather than focus on an attempt to forcibly shift the market through politics, Trump attains his desired balance objective by focusing MAGA policy in a stunningly unique way, he focuses on shifting the landscape underneath the decision.

To help explain the dynamic, I’ve created this graphic:

Traditional politicians have always directed their policy efforts at the political side of the economy. [ie. make, enforce or eliminate a regulation to change the decision-making of those who are in control of the market.]  However, within that approach the cause and effect takes time.

President Trump, works with a sense of urgency in all things.  He doesn’t like to wait for policies to take effect; instead he goes deeper into the dynamic and focuses on the root of the issue – in this economic example, trade is the economic fulcrum.

MAGAnomics is all about moving the fulcrum to achieve the desired result.  In the goal of gaining manufacturing investment, Trump’s sense of urgency, creates policies that in turn create a similar immediacy.  [ie. capital expenditures can only be written off if the capital expense is invested within a short window].  As a consequence there is a larger benefit to the investor if the action is taken quickly.  [See FoxConn Wisconsin etc.]

Investment is fast, rapid and generates ancillary benefits at greater speed.  Hence, manufacturing employment accelerating faster than any time over the past 30 years.  In the current example, what do you think will happen in GM’s USA operations with the withdrawal from Canada? More speed in U.S. manufacturing base hiring. That urgency means rapidly higher wages (longer shifts and overtime), in short, more pay.

President Trump doesn’t try to guide the mouse through the maze to the intended destination.  Instead he just moves the location of the cheese and the mouse travel changes accordingly.  This approach dramatically shifts the speed of goal attainment.

This approach is partly what defines the unique speed of Trump.