QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am curious given your passion has been history you have explored things nobody seems to have. What has impressed me is how you pull history together in such a logical way you make it come alive. My question is the origin of Germany. We were taught here in school that Germany traces its origins back to the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest in the year 9AD. What is your take on this subject if you care to answer.?

PVB

ANSWER: Yes, I am aware that Germany traces its origins back to the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest of 9 AD, but it is really political propaganda. It was not until 1871 when Germany became a nation-state. That is when most of the German states unified into the Prussian-dominated German Empire. Nonetheless, the famous battle in which Germanic tribes annihilated the advancing Roman army has been used for political agendas over the centuries. The battle is actually believed to have taken place near Kalkriese, northeast of Osnabrück, but the battlefield has not been confirmed. The Germans did ambush the Romans in a tight geographic area between a hill and a moor. It is well documented as a disaster even in Roman literature. Some 18,000 Roman troops were slaughtered by the Cheruscan Chieftain Arminius and his allies whose name was changed to Hermann to make him a local hero.

Arminius has been propagandized as Hermann the German and this battle has been interpreted as being the birth of Germany as a nation-state. All of the coins found at the location confirm the time period. The coins discovered at the location to the early years of the first century AD during the time of Emperor Augustus. There were also coins of late Republican time period that were still in circulation. However, we date a site by the latest coins discovered.

The defeat of three Roman legions under the command of Rome’s Germania governor and General Publius Quinctilius Varus by Arminius is a true account. It is also a fact that the Romans never again attempted to establish settlements in Germany following the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest. He was the son of Sextus Quinctilius Varus who was quaestor in 49 BC and defended Corfinium when Julius Caesar (100-44 BC) besieged the city during the civil war against Pompey. Sextus was forced to surrender the town, was pardoned by Caesar, but immediately betrayed him and fled to Africa, where Caesar’s deputy Curio was fighting against Pompey’s allies. Sextus did his best to win over Curio’s soldiers to abandon Caesar’s cause. Despite the fact that Curio was defeated in Africa, Caesar won the civil war. Sextus did not return to Rome since it was not Caesar’s policy to pardon a person twice. It is not known whether he was involved in the plot to assassinate Caesar. We do know that Sextus was involved at the battlefield of Philippi, where the new leaders of the Caesarian party, Marc Antony, and Octavian, defeated the last republicans oligarchs. Sextus then asked one of his freedmen to kill him.

How his son Publius Quinctilius Varus rose to power under Augustus is not known. Clearly, he was not held to account for the sins of his father. He clearly accepted the end of the Roman Republic, in contrast to his father. What is known from that period is that the Civil War did divide families as well. Publius, nonetheless, became a personal friend of Octavian/Augustus and associate of Tiberius. He was given Syria as his province in 7 BC during which time he issued this provincial coin. While serving as the governor of Syria, Varus guarded the borders against the menace of Parthia and violently suppressed revolts in Judaea and Samaria, when it was learned that they had been apportioned to Herod Archelaus in the will of Herod the Great. The military operations in these regions are sometimes known as “Varus’ War.” Varus, however, is best known for his role in events after he returned from Syria and took up a command in Germany in 6 AD. During 9 AD, he led three legions against the German tribes at the Teutoberg Forest. He was killed and the legions annihilated in one of the greatest military disasters of Roman history. There is a surviving gravestone in the Bonn museum which clearly confirms that there was indeed a Varus war supporting the Roman accounts. We do know that the event took place.

The background of the German hero, Arminius (Hermann), is not widely explained in German folklore.  Arminius had actually received a Roman military education and had Roman citizenship. He even commanded an auxiliary German cavalry attached to the Roman army before deserting and switching his allegiance. We do not know why he took this step. Some believe that he merely entered the Roman military to learn the tactics to defeat them. Clearly, Arminius who has been portrayed as the heroic liberator who created the German nation was crafted by Martin Luther to support the liberation from the Roman Catholic Church. The story supported his political cause. During the mid-20th century, the National Socialists in Germany further enhanced this concept during the Third Reich raising Arminius as the .heroic liberator who created Germany. This myth has been used over the centuries whenever it was needed to support the rise of nationalism.

Exactly where the battle took place is not precisely known. The Kalkriese Museum was to begin a three-year excavation project to try and get some answers. This is where numismatic archaeological evidence is playing an important part in the current research. Coins help to date an event, but a battlefield would have more coins than usual. There is no absolute proof where the battle took place at this location. There have been no inscriptions of the 19th or 18th or 17th legions discovered.

The new excavation authorized in 2017 hopes to discover some piece of a helmet with an inscription or a plaque with the name of a unit. There are also stamped artillery bolts that can often be used to also confirm legions and/or events. The Roman would use a slingshot to propel bullets. Typically, these bullets are marked allowing for the identification often of specific legions.

Coins are a very important part of documenting history. There are bronze coins of Augustus that have countermarks “VAR” which has often been attributed to Publius Quinctilius Varus. As pictured above, Varus had the authority to issue local provincial coins in Africa Proconsularis as well as in Syria. His name appears in the legend and in some cases also with his bust. Since he had the authority to issue local coins, he may have had the authority to countermark imperial coins that were worn in the West as well, yet no such local coin exit issued by him in either Gallia or the Rhine border region. Therefore, local coins issued in the name of Roman officials seem to be common in Eastern Provinces under Augustus most likely because of the difference in culture led them to retain their own monetary units.

Nonetheless, there are countermarks known in the Syrian province on local provincial coins when worn that have been attributed to Varus. These are noted in Greek Imperial Countermarks numbers 658 and 659 that show “VAR”,”PVAR” and “QVAR” inscriptions. These appear to coincide with Varus’ term of office as governor of Syria. This has been used to infer that the “VAR” countermarks on bronze coins of Augusts found in the region of Germany are attributed to Varus. It was a common practice to counter-stamp bronze coins that were worn. In some instances, the coins are devalued. Here is actually a barbarous imitation of a Roman sestertius of Claudius (41-54AD) that is severely worn and the coin was a Sestertius with the countermark “DV” meaning it was devalued to a Dupondius – half the original value. Therefore, the “VAR” countermark is most likely certifying the value remained unchanged.

It was also a common practice for the legionaries to burying their money in the ground before a battle. These are hoards not of individuals, but the pay for the army. The dead would have been stripped of their armor and any coins would have been taken and the bodies were left to rot in the forest and provide food for the animals.

In early 2017 a hoard of more than 200 silver Roman coins, all dated prior to 9 C.E., were found in the Kalkriese area where the battle is suspected to have taken place. This was probably not the funds buried by the legion representing their pay. It is unlikely that Varus possessed any authority to actually strike coins as a moving military mint. That has been a common practice mostly of usurpers and during periods of civil war. In such cases, the actual dies have also been discovered. Here is a die of Gordian I (238AD) who survived only 21 days.

During 2016, University of Osnabrück archaeologists discovered eight Roman gold aurei east of Bramsche. This opened up the speculation that perhaps Bramsche might be the sight of the battle. The coins were of the early type struck prior to 9AD depicting Augustus on the obverse, with his grandsons Gaius and Lucius on the reverse. There were some other minor bronze denomination coins also found at this sight. Bramsche has been nicknamed field of gold by the local citizens who have found gold coins in this area before. Back in 1987, there was the discovery of 162 silver coins and three Roman slingshots bullets. None of the coins discovered at this site date after 9AD. However, other than the slingshot bullets, there has been no military objects found at Bramsche. Some argue that the gold coins were lost by officers attempting to flee the massacre.

Germanicus (15 BC – 19 AD)  who was the grandson of Marc Antony and Son of Antonia, he was, therefore, the brother of future Emperor Claudius and the father of future Emperor Caligula, obtained his name for he led the legions to Germany after the defeat of Varus. Germanicus’ troops campaigned against the Germanic tribes for six years during the aftermath of the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest. According to contemporary accounts, Germanicus found the battlefield and buried the human remains which included skulls nailed to trees.

Now, the question is rather simple. Is the reinvention of a former Roman soldier Arminius transformed into Hermann and founder of Germany, which did not become a nation-state until 1871, a unique rewrite of history? The answer is absolutely no way. Here is a gold medallion of Constantine I the Great (305-337AD), the man who declared Christianity the official state relgion of the Roman Empire. Look closely and you will see that Constantine pictures himself with the Roman god Sol. To the pagans, this was a political propaganda piece. Sol Invictus was becoming virtually the supreme god.

Constantine’s propaganda was all about defeating the reforms of Diocletian who established the Tetrarchy whereby emperors would retire and be replaced with their second in command. Therefore, picturing himself with Sol was a political statement suggesting that there should be only ONE emperor. Constantine supported Christianity using the same political agenda that there was one god so there should be only one emperor.

Those who seek power often rewrite history to argue what they are doing is really being heroic like some former person in history. They change names, facts, and even timelines to justify their actions. It has been a practice that prevails throughout history.

California has beaten Illinois for net outmigration from the state. California has become one state that there are more people trying to get out than moving into it. So while California wants to protect illegal aliens and fight with the Federal government over sanctuary cities contrary to the Constitutional Supremacy Clause, according to a November report from the U.S Census Bureau, the Golden State has had 142,932 residents exit the state. This domestic outmigration has been the second largest outflow in the USA behind only New York and New Jersey. The net outmigration from California jumped up 11% compared to 2015

QUESTION:  Hi Marty,

Two questions:

1. When the Canadians said they never look at “those things,” what “things” are they talking about?

2. I always like lowering taxes, if the remaining revenue will be spent wisely. (In our dreams). But as a lawyer in the Austin area, I can assure you that manufacturing by some of my high tech clients has been outsourced to Asia on several occasions, when I gave them the 30 minute presentation on the regulatory crap they would need to grind through before hiring even one worker, or even breaking ground on a facility. “Or”, as I have told them for decades, “You can go through your “Rolodex”, and call somebody you know in [Asia]. In six weeks product will be on the way, and you know it.”

It isn’t just taxing, Marty. We have desirable pollution control laws, worker safety laws, safer roads, safer water and food, cleaner air, more health care, (which may not mean “better health care”,) better housing, more cars, consumer protection, rule of law, sometimes, etc. These things cost money, and since we are stuck with dollars, politicians and industrialists have sold our future overseas, for short-term gains.

It is a familiar issue in Texas, where Mexican and other illegal workers rent cheap houses and hot bunk up to 30 people in a three bedroom modest house, sending most of their pay home, until they can get an anchor baby and go on the free-stuff-for-kids rides our governments have created. Meanwhile, working-class Texans can’t afford a tiny house in a bad neighborhood, in Austin Metro and other areas. Much less health care, insurance etc. They compete, head to head with the aforesaid illegals.

On the macro scale, how does say, Dell, return manufacturing to America, when they are paying 10% of the labor cost, probably 20% of the regulatory cost, almost no legal costs, de minimus pollution abatement costs and no workers’ compensation, by comparison, etc.? I don’t see how tax cuts can stop that imbalance. Yet we have hundreds of millions of fellow citizens who are over a barrel and need more and higher paying jobs. I know a guy with a wife and two kids who were supporting them on one wage and good money management but left the St. Louis area due to social meltdown. Came to a suburb of Austin, got a job at a grocery store, living with parents, and then realized, after saving a grubstake, that his wages cannot rent a crappy 2 bedroom house in a bad neighborhood, with more than $200 a month left over.

Their solution? Move to an even cheaper state – Florida. We’ll see.

ANSWER: The scenarios that people make up as to what central banks make their decisions on are the headlines in the press – inflation & jobs normally. The inflation indexes have been so manipulated that they will NEVER reach the 15-20% level of the 1980s. Back then, they included real estate which was 40%. That was removed because they determined it was an “asset” and not really cost of living so it was replaced with rents and then they more often used urban rents that were controlled. You have to understand that the entire budget and social programs were indexed to the CPI. So, the NUMBER ONE way to reduce deficits was to reduce the CPI index so politicians did not have to vote to cut programs and suffer the arrows launched by the public.

The Federal Reserve is prone to raise interest rates regardless of the economic data because they have been manipulated too low and has set in motion a crisis in pensions. On the other hand, raising rates too fast blows the deficits out since governments are the relentless and biggest borrowing in the economy. It is just not plain-vanilla management as people portray. There are far more serious issues including capital flows which they are all now finally beginning to take notice.

On Part-II, you are absolutely correct. The biggest cost of labor is NOT the actual wage paid to an employee. It is the benefits, taxes, and regulatory costs. As I said before, when I was restructuring major multinational companies to cope with the birth of the Euro, those who needed skilled labor I place in Britain, not Germany. The cost that an employee never sees was 40% less in Britain compared to Germany. I was called in urgently by a major company who had a branch in Germany. I was asked to come to the board meeting the next day and was not even briefed in advance what was the crisis. When I got there, they appoint me advisor to the pension fund and then most of the board resigned. I asked what was going on? They wanted to lay-off 25% of the workforce and the Germany government finally agreed. At the last minute, they instructed the company that they COULD NOT pick and choose who to lay-off. They had to offer 100,000 to give up their job “willing” no less. Everyone who knew they could get another job took the 100k and left. The very people they wanted to get rid of stayed. That was how regulators screwed up companies. I encountered the same stupid policy in Grece.

The higher the tax burden, the lower the standard of living. The tithe was an obligatory offering from the law of Moses requiring 10 percent of an Israelite’s firstfruits. We are so far beyond that it is destroying our civilization. As you can see we take the total consumption of government as a percent of GDP. There is just no end in sight. The USA economy is doing far better than Europe as a whole simply because we are at 37.6% of GDP compared to the insanity of France where Communism began – 56.7%. Among the states in the USA, we are witnessing major migration from New Yor, New Jersey, California, Illinois, and Connecticut just to mention the top contenders. The people are burdened by the taxes and they do not stop if you try to retire. They want income tax and property taxes when you retire and many people simply cannot afford to live in those states anymore. The tax burden never ends and when you die, they want to pick over your bones.

The development of robots is to simply eliminate the benefits and regulatory costs. The worker sees this as just his hourly wage. But the real costs in far too often 50% of the wage or higher from the company’s perspective. Even the Post Office is hiring part-time to avoid pensions and benefits.

As for shipping off programming to foreign lands, it still requires staff here to monitor them and the end product is rarely 100% acceptable. The communication problems also impact that situation and make it less attractive than what it appears on the surface. It just takes a lot more management from afar.

COMMENT: Usury, first the Fed starves we savers for return for 18 years with their zero percent interest rates and gave us two giant stock market crashes in that intervening period.
The lack of return caused us to cannibalize our savings and trillions of savings lost thru the stock market crashes and ditto home equity. Then property taxes explode.
Now even the cost of funds is still at historic lows credit card rates move from 8/9% to 12% in a matter of months.

What are Grandma and Grandpa to do? Knowing what the Feds original charter was is not an answer because they have become the master manipulator for the wealth transfer from the people to their greedy cohorts.

Have followed your public work since well before your legal problems and greatly appreciate your cycle work but the wealth transfer must stop and some jail sentences applied and claw back enacted.

Or is the wealth transfer already accomplished and the taxpayer/consumer left holding the bag?
Martin, thank you for your efforts.

LL

REPLY: I fully agree. This is the battle between Demand v Supply-side Economics. This age of “New Economics” that was ushered in by Marx and Keynes, justified that government had the power to manipulate society to achieve their goals. The idea of raising and lowering interest rates to influence demand has utterly failed. The 800-pound gorilla in the room is the $200 trillion+ of sovereign debt around the world. Demand-Side Economics cannot possibly work when the biggest debtor is government and the raising of interest rates only increases their deficits that come back as tax increases reducing the net wealth of the people and lowering economic growth.

This is why we are headed into a Crash & Burn. There is no other outcome possible. Government is crowding out the private sector so the annual rate of economic growth has steadily declined. The transfer of wealth is not between the RICH v the POOR. It is between Government v the People. They point the finger at the inequality of income is growing. But this is not wages, it is that assets will always rise against the currency in progressive economic declines. They will point to that gap as the problem. But states like Illinois and California have net migrations outward because of the tax burden – not because some CEOs make too much.

It would help to stop blaming the central bankers and let’s look at the problem from both sides.

QUESTION: the ECB is arguing that given the low free float of EU bonds (especially German), bonds not owned by the ECB or other central banks, the impact of an end to APP purchases will be nowhere comparable to the tapering sell-off in the US in 2013. Bank research teams are hanging on to this idea to make positive forecasts in the EUR exchange rate versus the USD. They say an end-date for the APP programme may not result in a higher risk/term premium in the European government bond market.
Could you comment on this, please? Many thanks for all your work,
GM

ANSWER: The ECB knows it has to stop the QE program. They also know that Yellen was correct in lecturing them that interest rates had to be “normalized” so they know there is a real meltdown coming. That is inevitable. Pension funds cannot buy 10-year bonds at 1.5% or even 3% locking in losses for 10 years. I really fail to see that claiming there is such a small float, because the ECB has been the 800-pound gorilla buying everything, that interest rates will not rise. That is just complete fallacy. There is a small float because they have DESTROYED the bond market in Europe.

Draghi has proved something incredibly important – Demand-Side Economics has been a complete and utter failure. After 10 years of manipulating interest rates, that they want to put private bankers in prison for under the Libor Scandal, the ECB has failed completely. In just 7 days, the German bunds dropped from 16415 to 15939 – that was 5.9%. The 2013 decline in US 30-year Treasuries back in 2013 was 16%. So what the Bunds did in 7 days in their decline based upon events in Italy reflect that the ECB is trying to paint a picture that yes – rates will rise and bonds will decline. However, the decline will be less than the USA (in their biased opinion) so you will lose less money buying European debt than American.

A great sales pitch. There are people who just WANT to believe the Euro will defeat the dollar. They, therefore, look at anything to support only that view. Good luck on that one.

COMMENT:  If gravity is the most powerful force in the universe than the logic would collapse ECM to and that is not how reality is as you have discovered in the ECM.

Gravity / Government / the weakest force in the universe, Gravity is opposite Electromagnetic Majority people are opposite government
the more powerful Majority in the Market will always create the trend, not the weaker gravity / government that is the basic tenet of the ECM and the Electric Universe This is also why the Sovereign Debt Crisis will bring Gov. Deb to 0

It is then a Fallacy to Appeal to Authority of Relativity , You Marty have shown
Time is simply the observation of ratios between multiple series of events and is the only Constant, the past can not be changed or manipulated.

I can accurately predict future events, by observing past events, and noting the ratios of events in time 8.6(9) year frequency with the 1.075(1.3) year short leg and the 2.15(2.6) (1.3 +2.6=3.9) year Long leg to volatility wave/ change in trend PI 3.1415(3.2) This allows me to have confidence in where I am in time and to accurately predict future events with consistent success.

Tesla said “pay attention to the 3, 6, and 9 and think frequency, vibration, energy”. He saw the world as it was, rather than how he wanted it to be, he was aware of the principle of the ECM, as the maya and other ancient civilizations.

SA

REPLY: I believe you have expressed it very well from a physics perspective. Well done! I live on the beach and am in awe of the sunsets every day. This is one photo I took on one stunning day. Observing the universe and how everything functions in a choreographed play is amazing. I have often said that my physics teacher said nothing is random. God does not play dice with the universe. My economics professor emphasized that everything was random and therefore the government was needed to manipulate the chaos to smooth every out so we have a better life. I realized right then and there that one of my professors was lying. I followed the path of order; not the one of chaos and randomness

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I was at the Treasury Management Association of Canada (TMAC) conference in Vancouver when you appeared as a speaker as well as Peter Detallis of the Bank of Canada if I remember his name correctly. I was there at the cocktail party when the Finance Minister of Nova Scotia said you diminished the central bankers. They were right there a well and he did not know it. You introduced him to them. He was upset. I laughed at that. My question is why are you the exception to meet with central banks?

HWF

ANSWER: It should come as no surprise that I routinely argue against “demand-side” economics which justifies central banks manipulating demand by raising and lowering interest rates. It has never worked. That said, the Democrats vilified “supply-side” economics when Reagan lowered taxes. They vilified it calling it “trickle-down Economics.” They never actually explain the difference because they want to do as they desire and then expect the central banks to clean-up their mess from the fiscal mismanagement of the economy. That said, the conspiracy theorists blame the central banks for absolutely everything and assign no blame to the politicians for the fiscal side.

That said, it still took me some time to understand why the central banks would talk to me. They clearly knew I understood the real dynamics of the system as a whole with both the fiscal and monetary side in addition to Demand v Supply-side economics. The also knew I lived in the real world community and was one of the few true international advisers. The difference is I really had some $3 trillion under contract which was about 50% of the US National Debt at the time. They knew I spoke with real-life experience – not theory. That was even part of the Congressional record when I testified before the House Ways & Means Committee. When the model called the 1987 Crash that was one thing. But the very day of the low it confirmed that was it and the low would hold and off we would go to new highs. I was called in by the White House that day and asked to confirm this would be it. There are simply times when they just really need to know what is happening and they need to rely on something that is NOT political or just the passing opinion of an analyst. Then the Tokyo Crash took place perfectly with the top of the ECM 1989.95 and again I had two central banks on the phone at the same time. The question was did the computer say they needed to intervene? I said no. It was confined to Japan.

The stock market again peaked on the very day of the ECM July 20th, 1998. That was followed by the collapse of Russia and the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis. That is when the CIA called and wanted the model since it had political implications that became obvious. It has become obvious to those behind the curtain that our model is no joke. There have been WAY TOO may correct forecasts that have picked the turns and highlighted the crisis points.

Over time, I learned that the central bankers are no different from the rest of us. They do NOT know everything and they are NOT in control of the world as the conspiracy people paint it. In Canada, they filed a lawsuit against the Bank of Canada to demand it focus only on Canadians and ignore international bankers and the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) (see Press release: Ban of Canada Suit _CourtCasePressRelease). They do not grasp that we are ALL CONNECTED and central banks realize that they CANNOT manage the domestic economy by ignoring the international capital flows.

There is such a general misconception of central banks it is unbelievable. The first cooperation took place in July 1927. That was a meeting between USA, UK, France, and Germany.  They attempted to manipulate the capital flows by arguing the USA should lower interest rates and in theory, the capital would return to Europe. It failed and they could not prevent the Sovereign Debt Crisis that hit in 1931. It was Roosevelt who usurped all the power of the independent branches of the Federal Reserves and stuffed them all into one size fits all management under Marxist socialistic theory where Washington kept an eye on the Fed.

Yellen pleaded with Drahi to stop his insane negative interest rate policy. He would NOT listen. She hesitated in raising US interest rates back in 2014 hoping that Draghi would see the huge mistake he was making in creating the next crisis – the destruction of the European bond market and the pending Pension Crisis. When the ECM peaked 2015.75 and started to decline, the pressure on the Pension Funds began to escalate. The Fed broke FAITH with the rest of the central banks and began to raise rates during the last quarter 2015 after the ECM turned October 1st, 2015.

Our system is the ONLY mechanism that is tracking the entire world. It picks up everything. This is the chart of the capital flows for the 1987 Crash. How can any central bank ignore the capital flows and the international interconnectivity of the world economy and survive?

We have no conflict of interest and that is critical. We also have a track record from the early 1980s that is unbelievable on economic forecasts. In the middle of a crisis, we all need sometimes to call on someone or something. We try to contribute to society in hopes of one day perhaps AFTER the Crash & Burn, just maybe we can avoid a fall into totalitarianism. My time will be over here. My concern is for my family I will leave behind.

QUESTION:

Hi Marty,

I hope you’re keeping well? More news from the “EU beacon of light” for you. I’ve enclosed an article regarding Irish pension money in Italian bonds. This is very very scary if true and we really are heading for a disaster from which a little country like ours won’t recover if we ever did anyway! In the article Mercer says that “after the financial crisis the ECB put in place a system to limit a contagion”.

Is this just more whistling in the dark? I believe it is.

Kind regards,

E

ANSWER: The very design of the euro promotes contagions. Because there was no national debt, the “reserve” status for banks is the debt of all member states. In the United States, ONLY the national debt federally is acceptable. Therefore, if California or Illinois goes bust they do not create a contagion that brings down the whole. Even the government has come out and warned there may be a contagion will emerge if Italy fails and/or breaks with the EU.

The euro crashed BECAUSE there is no such prevention of a contagion. That is totally FALSE and a made up excuse. Fears of the new Italian government of the five-star movement and the right-wing populist Lega came into the markets and sent the euro crashing. A risk of contagion sparked by Italy infecting the entire Eurozone was “not yet completely off the table,” said ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio. This applies in particular if the sharp rise in Italian government bond yields. At the same time, Constancio came out and said that US Treasuries have the greatest risk because the Fed keeps raising interest rates. There is no such mechanism to prevent contagions – PERIOD! It is all smoke & mirrors.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; There are these people so desperate to argue that cryptocurrency will change the world, I have heard the same pitch behind gold and I suspect most are just goldbugs who gave up and moved to cryptocurrencies. The same arguments of fiat and central banks are at the base of this as well. Do you think that cryptocurrency can somehow emerge as a solution after the Crash and Burn? How can there be thousands of these cryptos? If the dream they pitch is even plausible, then does there not have to be just one cryptocurrency?

Thank you

Hank

ANSWER: We have to ask what is at the core of this trend. In essence, it is the very same trend that put Trump in office. The entire 2007-2009 global financial crisis and bank bailout created an entirely new “skepticism” of government in most countries. This is where the digital assets have come into play. Are they capable of altering or influencing traditional global monetary policy? The answer: absolutely no possible way. To accomplish that we MUST end socialism. I doubt these people really understand the full scope of structural changes that would need to be made to move to any cryptocurrency. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand rules the question. Until it is in the self-interest of those in power to hand back the scepter of power itself, there is just no way to accomplish such a monumental change without the house burning down FIRST. The other possibility is that governments just usurp the crypto world like they confiscated gold and then control it for taxes. They do want to eliminate all paper currency to collect 100% taxes they believe are avoided. They also pitch it would end crime as we know it. The black market would then no doubt emerge as barter once again. To think that cryptocurrency can defeat central banks and governments is really far-fetched.

The political changes are monumental. Politicians can no longer run for office promising benefits by robbing the rich and handing it to the poor. In order for crypto assets to replace money, it would require a profound change in politics. It is not simply central bank money. The entire pitch of cryptocurrency is that it will take the creation of money away from central banks and thus government. Think that through. Career politicians would be completely at a loss. They have no qualifications with respect to management of an economy. The Democrats have been selling the same promise since FDR’s first election. Just look at the chart above and you will see that the Democrats have been in a bear market ever since FDR. They pretend that someone cannot get rich without oppressing the poor. Wealth to them is very Marxist and a zero-sum game. They are stuck in the idea that someone makes a product and the capitalist profits on their labor. They fail to comprehend that someone can invent something like Google, Amazon, Microsoft, or our Socrates Platform that by no means oppressed some poor individual to create it. They are frozen in time and cannot comprehend the Invisible Hand of Adam Smith. This is why I say that socialism is dead and indeed the entire cryptocurrency movement is part of that collapse in the public’s confidence in government.

Additionally, cryptocurrencies are promising to end fiat currencies, and in reality, it is a return to a sort of commodity-based money not so dissimilar from a gold standard. The problem with all of this is the idea that if we somehow returned to a gold standard, then money would be worth “something” as if it would never change in value. That just cannot exist and NEVER has. Whatever you define as money, it will rise and fall against assets. That is fundamental to the economy. It is why communism failed. Here is a chart of Bitcoin. It has risen and crashed. It did not hold on to value permanently at some fixed level. This is why I say it is an “asset class” fluctuating against the currency – the dollar.

Here is a chart of the rise and fall of the inflation index when gold was money. These very swings in the economy are what Kondratieff studied and created his long wave. Gold did NOT prevent the boom and bust cycle. That is part of nature that CANNOT be eliminated. When gold was money and the stock market rose in value, that meant money declined in purchasing power which was gold. It acted economically NO DIFFERENT it money were paper, seashells, or cattle.

So, will cryptocurrencies replace paper currency? The actual amount of transactions today in physical money is less than 5%. So we are already using electronic money every day, such as when you buy something online. So will that emerge eventually as a cryptocurrency? Perhaps. There is nothing to prevent that once we get the crash and burn, and the “burn” is the replacement of the political system.

Will there be only ONE cryptocurrency for the entire world? Unlikely. I would probably bet on each government adopting a cryptocurrency per nation and prohibit the use of “foreign” cryptocurrency domestically. We also must respect that government WANTS to create some sort of cryptocurrency to ensure that everyone pays taxes. Australia already uses the phrase – “Cash is for Criminals.” 

What I disagree with is the notion that somehow cryptocurrency will force political change and government will simply yield and hand back the scepter of power when politely asked. That has NEVER taken place, not even one time throughout history. Governments do NOT voluntarily surrender power. They will use whatever power they have to the bitter end. So, sorry. History is on my side on this one. Dream all you want. Human nature never changes throughout the centuries. Those in power will act in their own self-interest and defend against the loss of that power.

We are headed into a major economic crisis. Cryptocurrency will not save the day. We have to crash and burn. That is the ONLY way such economic imbalances have been resolved throughout history. That is NOT my personal OPINION. It is simply reality