The American Dream Goes Bust, KB Home Wrecked, Other Homebuilders Follow


KB Home, one of the largest homebuilders, reported earnings on Tuesday. It was all hunky-dory. Shares rose 3.6% in premarket trading. But then, at 11:30 AM ET came the conference call. And what these folks said about the housing market wrecked KBH. The carnage spread to other homebuilders and torpedoed a big-fat rally in the broader market.

So what the heck is going on in this glorious housing market of ours?

Since the implosion of the housing bubble, we the people bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We had home-buyer tax credits from state and federal governments. We got HAMP, HARP, mortgage write-downs, and banks that were delaying foreclosures to pump up prices. We got the Fed’s ZIRP, QE-1, QE-2, “Operation Twist,” and QE-3, during which the Fed purchased mortgage-backed securities, in addition to Treasuries,  to repress long-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, to goose home prices. We got multi-billion dollar fines and settlements from TBTF banks who never admitted any wrongdoing. We got private equity funds pouring the Fed’s free money into the housing market, buying up hundreds of thousands of single-family homes to rent them out and drive up their prices.

After all these trillions and taxpayer guarantees and no-cost capital for Wall Street, you’d think the housing market would be in great shape with first-time buyers, the bedrock of a sound housing market, flooding the scene to buy homes at affordable prices, borrow like mad to equip them with furniture and appliances, and push the economy to the next level.

Instead, home prices have jumped – in some hot areas, such as San Francisco, far above the crazy levels of the prior housing bubble. Homes have become unaffordable for many people. Sales are languishing. And everything is off kilter.

But one thing these heroic efforts did accomplish: they managed to decouple the relationship between homeownership rates and home prices. Ever since the post-war boom, there had been one constant: higher homeownership rates led to higher prices. The principle held during the Financial Crisis when homeownership rates and prices fell in sync. Then, as the heroic efforts to heal the housing market kicked in, home prices began to soar, and homeownership? It dropped relentlessly.

“The first national housing boom in the postwar era that has not been supported by an increased demand for owner-occupied housing,” that’s what a report by the St. Louis Fed called it.

In this chart from the report, homeownership rate (blue line) peaked in 2005 at 69%, “accompanied by a steep increase in home prices,” namely the housing bubble, as depicted by the CaseShiller home price index (orange line).

US-homeownership-v-home-price_StLouisFed

The biggest decline in homeownership was among households headed by individuals age 35 and under, hence “first-time buyers,” the report explained, concluding that it’s now “possible to have housing booms driven entirely by investors.” And the chart depicts how America has changed from a nation of homeowners chasing the “American Dream” to a nation where Wall Street is the biggest landlord.

This is the environment homebuilders are facing.

So KB Home reported that revenues for the fourth quarter, ended November 30, increased 29% from a year ago to $796 million, due to two factors: deliveries increased 9%; and the average selling price soared 17% to $351,500. Orders and backlog were up as well. Net profit jumped to $852.8 million, a feat accomplished via a tax benefit of $824.2 million. Without the tax benefit, the profit was $28.6 million, up a smidgen from a year ago. Those numbers lit a fire under the shares, and they rallied premarket and in early trading before they lost steam.

At 11:30 AM came the conference call.

CEO Jeff Mezger said that during the prior earnings call, he’d still expected “a slow yet steady recovery” of the housing market, and that gross profit margins would improve sequentially going forward. But the opposite happened. There was a “softening in demand” and “increased pricing pressure” while costs of labor and materials were rising (transcript, Seeking Alpha).

CFO Jeff Kaminski added that the average selling price had increased 18 quarters in a row on a year-over-year basis, but for Q1 he projected it to drop 7.5% to $325,000.

This is the toxic mix that hit them: They delivered fewer homes than “previously expected.” Given “tighter market conditions,” they had to cut prices and throw in more sales incentives. And “cost pressures” were building up in labor and materials.

So adjusted gross margin edged down to 18.7%. It would continue to be lower “for some time,” Mezger said. Year-over-year, Q1 gross margin will “drop significantly,” before ticking up during the rest of the year, but it won’t reach the “goal of 20% in 2015 as we have hoped.”

There was one more thing: California.

The company booked inventory impairment charges of $34 million. Of that, $23 million was for some land in the Coachella Valley area, near Palm Springs in Southern California. The remaining $11 million were for other areas in inland California and also in Arizona. While coastal California is booming, with the Bay Area being “as good as it’s ever been,” the inland areas – the Inland Empire in Southern California and the Central Valley – were “quite a bit softer than they have been.” And so they had to pile on sales incentives and slash prices in “the magnitude of 8% or 10%,” he said. “It hit pretty hard out there.”

And it’s “possible” that there would be “additional impairments in the future,” he said.

Then there’s Orange County, a wealthy enclave. It “softened a little,” he said. He blamed the “Chinese buyer.” Real estate agents were steering them to resale homes because they were a better deal, after new home prices had ballooned so much. And as Chinese demand wanes, “it ripples inland, and the further inland you go the more the ripple is felt….”

KBH had traded in the green for part of the morning, while the Dow was up over 200 points. But word of what was in the script must have leaked out, and KBH soon turned red. The conference call started at 11:30 AM ET. At 11:36 AM, as Mezger was reading off the script, KBH began to plunge in a nearly straight line then zigzagged down further to lose 16% for the day, and 44% for the last eight months.

Other homebuilders, after rallying, got hammered too. DR Horton dropped 4.8%, Lennar 1.7%, PulteGroup 2.5%, and the iShares US Home Construction 2.5%. The Dow began losing its grip at about 10 AM and dove over 400 points peak-to-trough, then bounced off and settled 27 points in the hole.

Broader home sales have been terrible. The bitter irony of the Fed’s handiwork. Read… Last Time Inflated Home Prices Strangled Sales Like This, the Housing Market Crashed 

George Soros Funded Ferguson and related Demonstrations


CALLED IT: Billionaire George Soros Funded the Highly Organized Ferguson Protests to the Tune of $33 Million

by Melissa Melton The Daily Sheeple January 16th, 2015

fergusonsoros

Remember back after the Michael Brown shooting and in the lead up to the Darren Wilson grand jury decision when I reported on the fact that “direct action trainings” for protesters were being held across the country, and highly organized protests were scheduled in some 83 cities (including one in Canada!) complete with a fancy social media campaign designed by skilled graphic artists?

At that point, they weren’t even being called “protests” anymore, but “planned responses” organized through something called the “Ferguson National Response Network”.

fergusonnationalresponsenetwork

I wrote:

“This is not your average civil disobedience. Martha Stewart has thrown less organized birthday parties than this. There are White House functions with less planning and training involved. Anyone else get the sense that this whole thing has been co-opted?”

Then a little further down —

A little over a week ago, The Washington Post ran an article titled, “Ferguson protest organizers: ‘I sleep, eat and breathe this.’”

Really?

Here’s an excerpt:

But a common thread runs through some of the most influential organizers. They are black, relatively new to civil rights activism and technologically savvy, masters of social media. Using Twitter, Vine and Instagram, they mobilize their peers, document every twist and turn, and annotate history in real time.

New to activism, huh? And yet, wow, they just so happen to be influential, savvy tech masters of social media who know how to mobilize everyone? No, that doesn’t stink of George Soros-funded phony color revolution stuff at all… (That was sarcasm, of course.)

It was just way too over-the-top to be believed. “There is a highly organized, scripted, funded, targeted agenda playing out in Ferguson, and people are basically falling for it,” I concluded.

Well…

This week, Washington Times investigative journalist Kelly Riddell is reporting that billionaire George Soros funded groups behind the organization of the Ferguson protesters to the tune of $33 million in just one year through his Open Society Foundation.

Here are a few excerpts from her exposé:

Soros-sponsored organizations helped mobilize protests in Ferguson, building grass-roots coalitions on the ground backed by a nationwide online and social media campaign.

Other Soros-funded groups made it their job to remotely monitor and exploit anything related to the incident that they could portray as a conservative misstep, and to develop academic research and editorials to disseminate to the news media to keep the story alive.

The plethora of organizations involved not only shared Mr. Soros‘ funding, but they also fed off each other, using content and buzzwords developed by one organization on another’s website, referencing each other’s news columns and by creating a social media echo chamber of Facebook “likes” and Twitter hashtags that dominated the mainstream media and personal online newsfeeds.

So Soros paid for everything Ferguson unrest, from the artsy social media campaigns, to the organization on the ground, to the exploitation and propaganda in the press.

“The financial tether from Mr. Soros to the activist groups gave rise to a combustible protest movement that transformed a one-day criminal event in Missouri into a 24-hour-a-day national cause celebre,” Riddell wrote.

Surprise, surprise. Never let a good crisis go to waste, right?

It’s no wonder Obama left his vacation early to meet with Attorney General Eric Holder on the Michael Brown shooting. He had orders from his boss.

Some community organizer. Just goes to show that some people use their exorbitant wealth to at least superficially pretend they are helping humanity, while others spend it openly and blatantly drumming up mass civil unrest on racial lines in an overblown police state to further bring down a nation.

For more on how Soros likes to tear countries apart as if the real world is simply an elite billionaire’s game of Risk, see Ukraine, Egypt, Tunisia, Serbia, Georgia, and Turkey — and that’s just for starters.

The top rated comments (the first receiving nearly 1300 ^ votes) at the bottom of the WA Times’ story at least shows that people are waking up to what’s going on here:

soroscomments

disqus_QQmo5i3vVTT: So Obama’s friend is funding the civil unrest. He needs to be in jail.

jackson d: He’s funding Obama, he bought Obama’s way into the White House. He needs to be in something worse than jail.

guest: Both are pure evil, in my opinion. Commie raised, anti-American anarchists. I wish both would go to a country that better suits them, and leave us alone. Take Sharpton with them, too.

freddysrevng2: Obama is a pot smoking puppet being led by the billionaire puppeteer. Don’t give him too much credit….he is bought and paid for to harm our society.

garyw631: The chain of command in the United States is, and has been since January 2009, Soros to Podesta, Podesta to Jarrett, Jarrett to teleprompter, teleprompter to Obozo. There you have it.

Rocky: Race/class division is text and verse from the Communist Manifesto and reinforced by Alinsky’s “Rules for Radicals. Social unrest is a key strategy toward economy socialization. Naturally Obama’s main man will support it.

Delivered by The Daily Sheeple

Melissa Melton is a writer, researcher, and analyst for The Daily Sheeple and a co-creator of Truthstream Media with Aaron Dykes, a site that offers teleprompter-free, unscripted analysis of The Matrix we find ourselves living in. Melissa also co-founded Nutritional Anarchy with Daisy Luther of The Organic Prepper, a site focused on resistance through food self-sufficiency. Wake the flock up!

Liberal Foreign Policy Guru Leslie Gelb Sounds Alarm: ‘Our Very Survival’ Imperiled


The sad thing is that what Leslie H. Gelb wants to save (America) is the very thing that Obama wants to destroy! He is not going to listen to any of this advise and has all ready declared war on the republicans, daring them to defy his wishes. He now believes he is a Monarch and has no need for Congress.

Capitalism – Socialism – Communism


Armstrong Economics
Posted on January 10, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

CAPITALISM

The business cycle is critical to understand. The difference between Capitalism and Socialism is simple. Capitalism is where you are free to decide what you do with your money, and Socialism is where government orders you what to do with their money, which you earn. The difference between Communism and Socialism is clever. The former “owns” everything and the latter you own it but they tax it and if you cannot pay the tax they take it.

Socialism/Communists try desperately to paint capitalism as the benefit of the greedy rich. People see the bankers as manipulating government but this is not inherent in capitalism, that is the corruption that infects all republics. A republic ALWAYS devolves into an oligarchy, which is not freedom and is not capitalism. Russia moved from communism to oligarchy and that is why it did not really boom as did China, which moved to capitalism.

For capitalism to work historically, it must embrace freedom and that can ONLY be accomplished by a true democratic system. Once you have career politicians who are elected perpetually, that opens the door to oligarchy. If China has a political class of professional politicians who do not need money to get reelected, then this defeats the oligarchy evolution for they do not require money to maintain power.

The elections of 53BC in the Roman Republic saw interest rates double because corrupt politicians had borrowed so much money for bribing votes. This is the oligarchy tendency that destroyed the Roman Republic.

ISIS DECLARES ALL GUNS ILLEGAL IN IRAQ


Guns are the last line of defense — A person needs to be able defend themselves as not being able to is the worst possible infraction a government can do. And the only governments that ban guns are the worst ones!

TRAITOR


I agree it is time!

Disturbing Allegation About Obama Made by Egyptian Liberal News


Well most of the informed citizens already know Obama is a Muslim; it matters not what ones says , its only the deeds that one does that count. Everything that Obama has done either hurts the US or promotes Islam; which is what the Muslim brotherhood wants.

This Map Shows 22 Confirmed Terrorist Training Camps Inside the US… Obama Is Ignoring Them


These are going to be bad areas to be in, in the near future.

1dragon's avatarSocialism is not the Answer

Conservative Tribune

Homegrown terrorism may be even closer than we feared.

A new report indicates that the FBI is aware of 22 Islamic “communes” inside the United States. These are allegedly run by a Pakistani group known as Jamaat al-Fuqra, through a more friendly sounding organization called “Muslims of the Americas” (MOA).

The locations are described by federal law enforcement as “communal living sites.” However, documents show that these sites provide paramilitary training and indoctrination to Islamic recruits — and they may be preparing for jihad.

“The documented propensity for violence by this organization supports the belief the leadership of the MOA extols members to pursue a policy of jihad or holy war against individuals or groups it considers enemies of Islam, which includes the U.S. Government,” stated a document that the Clarion Project said it obtained from the FBI.

View original post 219 more words

How Multiculturalism Caused the Paris Terror Attacks


This is an excellent presentation on what multiculturalism is and how it is impossible to work. I agree 100% and since it has never worked in any location at any time its not some crazy theory! The worst current example of that could happen to a country was Yugoslavia which disintegration into waring factions and lead to so much human slaughter during the Clinton administration. That could be our future if we don’t stop doing what we are doing!

Convincing PROOF That Diversity is A Disaster


Montesquieu in his “The spirit of the laws” talks about this problem and his view was that to change a government you first needed to change the sentiments of the people. The people the government is bringing in have one thing in common a lack of understanding of personal freedom. They have no problem with a big powerful central government that takes care of them. Knowing this the progressives bring these people in to cause trouble which will then allow them to change our form of government.