Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles
Re-Posted May 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I find it interesting that you say the majority must always be wrong. I read Kenneth Rogoff’s comment on Davos and how the predictions there are always wrong. Do you think this can ever change or is it just how it works?
ANSWER: Yes, I reported on that comment by Rogoff. The MAJORITY must always be wrong for they are the fuel that moves markets as well as politics. I have been stating persistently that the Dow cannot “C R A S H” when the majority are bearish and retail participation is at historic lows. The question you pose is a very interesting one indeed.
I would have to say NO. I do not believe that can ever change. Human nature is such that it never changes throughout the centuries. The issues may change with technology, but human responses will always be the same. A mother still cries for her son lost in war today as she did in ancient times.
What I do believe is we each have our own cycle. We progress through this journey of life hopefully learning from our mistakes. We buy the high and sell the low when we begin following the crowd. As we learn and progress with age, we end up being the person who sells the high to the novice just entering the cycle.
The best we can do is learn and survive ourselves. I do not believe we can change human nature. That is the same reason why Communism failed. It is also why politicians become corrupt. It’s too tempting for them, which is why they cannot stand Trump. He cannot be bought. No amount of money will change his life style of that of his family. It’s now all about accomplishment and being remembered.