Oil & Pegs


QUESTION: First question: Disappointed I have not heard an opinion concerning OPEC’s continuation of reducing oil out put. Can the US shale drillers fill the void and or can the Canadian and Mexican producers ramp up any shortfall into the US

Second Question: What is your opinion on the Chinese Yuan being pegged to the US dollar. In the past you have always stated that “pegs can’t survive” i.e Swiss Franc to the Euro.

ANSWER: Supply really has little to do with the price. The real issue is demand. Electric cars are coming rapidly. I have a BMW hybrid I8 sports car and it is fantastic. It is the fastest sports car I have ever owned off the line. It has two engines a gas and electric and this technology is being expanded to all models. My neighbor has a Tesla and that is fine for local use. Tesla vehicles are currently the only battery electric cars you can buy in the that have an official range of more than 200 miles per charge. When I went to Amsterdam, the taxis are Teslas. Europe is moving toward electric cars faster than the States.

Most major automakers, including GM and Volkswagen, have vowed to roll out more than one fully electric car by 2020. In Europe, the average emissions level of a new car  2015 was 130 g of CO2 per kilometre (g CO2/km) and those sold in 2016 was down to 118.1 grams. By 2021, this has to be down to 95 grams of CO2 per kilometre.

Sales of electric cars totaled over 315,000 units in 2014, up 48% from 2013 reaching 565,00 units in 2015. In the U.S. alone, 542,000 electric cars have been sold to date. Granted, that is still small in comparison to the overall number estimated to be 263.6 million cars registered in the United States in 2015. Nevertheless, the trend is in motion. Does it by itself kill oil? Not yet! This is why oil did not elect any yearly long-term bearish signals on our model.

Keep in mind there are a lot of new discoveries also in gas. Cars make up 51.4% of oil consumption and jet fuel is 12.3%. Historically, demand drops with the economy as people drive and travel less. That is clearly the trend we see ahead.

With regard to pegs, none will stand and that includes China, Hong Kong and Middle East. What will break the peg is the dollar rally for that will import deflation to those nations with dollar pegs.

 

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