Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, I have been following you now for a few years. You seem to be never wrong. You always say it is not your opinion. Is there some secret to how you do this? Nobody else seems to even compare. Or is it all just the computer?
ANSWER: We all are human and as such we make mistakes. I understand that the big picture with war and events seems to be never wrong. That is Socrates – not me. I have been wrong in regard to my interpretation at times, but the cycles are always correct like the ECM.
I was one of the first International Hedge Fund Managers. I had even warned Congress back in 1985 that they should merge the CFTC and SEC because complying with one meant you went to prison with the other. They forced funds management offshore. We are all connected. You cannot have gold rise to $10,000 and the dollar turns to dust and nothing else happens. The world economy is like a set of dominoes. If you get the first one right, all the rest will follow.
These people who try to forecast one market can NEVER be correct for the wildcard always comes externally. Right now, the Ukraine war is impacting the global economy and markets. You could not asses the impact by simply watching the Fed. If it were not for (1) the stupid lockdowns of COVID disrupting the supply chain, then (2) this proxy war against Russia and imposing the absurd sanctions on them when they are a key supplier around the world in many areas, then inflation would not have risen and the Fed would not be raising interest rates. Those in power simply only look in front of their nose. Every action has a ripple effect that impacts long-term events. We cannot escape that. I have designed Socrates to survive me. It is not my opinion and when I do express my opinion I state the difference. Even my interpretation of an array can be wrong, not the array.
Everything is connected. We cannot escape that. Without Socrates monitoring everything around the world and writing its own reports on over 1,000 instruments globally, there is nobody who can possibly compete with a personal opinion. The world is far too complex for an individual to see everything from a personal gut feeling.
Because I had focused on currencies from the collapse of Bretton Woods and was called into the first bank failure in 1973 because of a 7% move in currencies, my company attracted clients from around the world. I had to see the world through everyone’s eyes – not just the dollar. In July 1985, I took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks announcing the end of deflation/peak in the dollar, and the reemergence of inflation, which led to the Japanese Bubble in 1989. Interest Rates peaked the very day at 1981.35. The end of that wave was 1985.65 the month of July. It was the beginning of a Private Wave which will end 2037.25.
We published charts back in Barron’s during the early 1980s showing gold in dollars compared to a basket of currencies. We ended up with the largest institutions in the world because our reports went out on telex and the communication costs per market were $225 per day. Only the biggest institutions could afford our services. Then came fax, and then email which has expanded our reach to everyone these days. But make no mistake about this. People may criticize me and others are desperate to try to prevent people from using us. It is either because they cannot compete and pretend this is my opinion rather than a computer, or they want to manipulate the markets and we just get in their way.