Germany to Separate North v South by 2030


QUESTION:

Martin,

Following the recent State elections in Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia which reflected voter disillusionment and discontent with the CDU and SPD how do you view the German political scene to the 2021 Federal election?

JR

REPLY: Bavaria came into existence in 1806 when Napoleon abolished the Holy Roman Empire. It was at this time that Bavaria’s land area was greatly expanded. Our cyclical model on Bavaria suggests that it will separate from northern Germany by 2030. This will be inspired by the austerity policies that have devastated the local economy. However, this will only be augmented by the difference in religion between Protestant v Catholic. That was also a factor in why Bavaria joined with Austria, which was also Catholic, in the Austro-Prussian War that resulted in Bavaria’s defeat in 1866. Bavaria had to cede several Lower Franconian districts to Prussia.

The Bavarian conservative party, the CSU, lost its absolute majority once the Economic Confidence Model turned in 2017 during the subsequent election in 2018. Meanwhile, the Greens emerged as the second-largest political force in southern Germany. Additionally, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis is impacting the municipal level and the austerity policies imposed by the north continue to brew civil discontent. The loss of the CSU in Germany undermined the survivability of Merkel which instigated her demise.

The civil unrest will turn upward sharply when this current wave concludes 2021.32. The eventual separation of Germany will most likely unfold by 2030 at the earliest.

The Coming British Elections


QUESTION: I know you were rather close to Sir Alan and Prime Minister Thatcher. I also know you are close to a number of politicians here in Britain. I was at your Edinburgh conference where they introduced you as a seventh-generation Edinburgh Scotsman I found very interesting rather than an American. You are famous here in political circles for many forecasts with the latest being the BREXIT victory. Do you have any insight into the December election? It is getting crazy here with two former Labour MPs declaring that they planned to vote for the Conservative Party because they said Labour’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was unfit to be prime minister. Then Tom Watson quit because of Corbyn’s policies over Brexit and his anti-Semitism. But the Conservatives seem to be less reliable as well. I think Nigel Farage may surprise a lot of people in this election. What does Socrates say?

GB

ANSWER: That is an interesting question. It is hard to map because of such a diverse breakdown in the “other” category. There is no question that Nigel’s party came out on top in the EU general elections. As we can see from the chart at the top, both Labour and the Conservatives are declining and there is a rise in both the Liberal Dems and “other” against the establishment so to speak. This is part of the global trend many outside the USA call the Trump Revolution. They are not referring to something that Trump did himself. Instead, this is a global trend against established political parties everywhere.

My advice to Johnson would be to cut a deal with Nigel’s Brexit Party. There is a trend underway that is bigger than most suspect. I know Nigel has no designs on being Prime Minister. However, fate will determine the roll of the dice. Nigel may end up in a position he did not wish to be in.

We will try to refine the models to do a proper forecast. Keep in mind that the “other” category is due for a strong showing and this will most likely be Nigel’s party. Also keep in mind that his Brexit Party does not hold any seats in Parliament at this time. That will change.

Bolivia’s Ex-President Flees to Mexico


Our model has been accurately forecasting the rise in civil unrest against governmental corruption on a worldwide basis. In Bolivia, ex-President Morales has fled to exile in Mexico. Previously, he was overthrown by the military under the pretext of electoral fraud. The country is drifting into political chaos. Bolivia happens to be home to the state-owned lithium industry, which is critical to driving electrical power by the global warming crowd. Bolivia has had a history of revolutions since 1781. The previous was 1949.

British Labour Party – The Greatest Threat to Britain


There is absolutely no question that Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party poses a greatest threat to Britain than Brexit. Corbyn said, “Nurses, teachers, shop workers, builders, just about everyone is finding it harder to get by, while Morgan Stanley’s CEO paid himself £21.5m last year and UK banks paid out £15bn in bonuses.” What he fails to consider is that the solution is not to raise taxes on CEOs, the solution is to reduce government. Even if they seized 100% of CEO salaries, it would not pay the expenses for a single day. But they love to point to some individual rich person and make it sound like all will be well if they just seize his money.

Socialism is dead. Before income taxes pre-World War II, the wife could stay home and raise the children. Today, that is not a possibility for most people. It takes two salaries to pay for the very same living standard pre-World War II. The more government pretends to do something, the greater the cost of government becomes. Every time they introduce some new tax, they hire more people and create more regulations for that specific tax. It is simply an endless process where now about 40% of the civil workforce is dependent upon government, which means they do not produce anything that contributes to the GDP of a nation.

Corbyn has boasted that the Labour Party is a threat to the rich. All he will do is send a massive migration from Britain. We have already been getting questions about moving companies and their domicile to the USA, as has been taking place even with major public companies in Canada

Nine American Women and Children Massacred by Mexican Drug Cartel, President Trump Offers U.S. Military Assistance to Mexican Government….


Last month the Mexican government backed-down from a drug cartel in Culiacan, releasing the two sons of drug lord El Chappo after the cartel overwhelmed the Mexican military during an attempted arrest.  The cartel defeated the Mexican military.

Today, three American mothers and six children (4 boys, 2 girls) were brutally murdered in northern Mexico by drug cartels prompting President Trump to offer military assistance to Mexican President Lopez-Obrador in the ongoing struggle against cartel violence.

.

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Gunmen killed nine women and children in the bloodiest attack on Americans in Mexico for years, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to offer to help the neighboring country wipe out drug cartels believed to be behind the ambush.

All nine people killed in Monday’s daytime attack at the border of Chihuahua and Sonora belonged to the Mexican-American LeBaron family, members of a breakaway Mormon community that settled in northern Mexico’s hills and plains decades ago.

A video posted on social media showed the charred and smoking remains of a vehicle riddled with bullet holes that was apparently carrying the victims on a dirt road when the attack occurred.

[…] A relative, Julian LeBaron, called the incident a massacre and said some family members were burned alive.

In a text message to Reuters he wrote that four boys, two girls and three women were killed. Several children who fled the attack were lost for hours in the countryside before being found, he said. He said it was unclear who carried out the attack.

[…] Trump tweeted that he would await a call from Lopez Obrador, urging him to accept U.S. assistance.

Lopez Obrador said he would call Trump on Tuesday about ways to cooperate on security but rejected what he called any foreign government intervention.

“I’ll speak with President Trump to thank him for his support, and to see if in cooperation agreements there’s the possibility of getting help,” he told a news conference. “I don’t think we need the intervention of a foreign government to deal with these cases,” he added.

[…] “War is irrational. We believe in peace,” said Lopez Obrador, a leftist who took office last December. (read more)

It’s starting to look like President Lopez-Obrador is a cartel manager.

Build the wall.

BREXIT – Live Decline & Fall of Western Society


Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologized on Sunday to Conservatives for failing to take the U.K. out of the European Union by Oct. 31st. Nigel Farage said he won’t personally run for a seat in Parliament. The plan to leave by Oct. 31st was blocked by the Remain crowd who refuse to accept any democratic process because they lost the vote. This is what is behind the decline and fall of western civilization. The losing crowd to any election is unwilling to ever accept a loss and move on. We have entered the second half of the Economic Confidence Model wave where governments simply lose all-purpose. The Remain crowd prevented a BREXIT without a divorce deal. They required Johnson to seek a BREXIT extension. The EU has granted a three-month Brexit extension until Jan. 31st, 2020.

Johnson has pushed for an early national election on Dec. 12th in which he hopes to get a more BREXIT-friendly Parliament. Nigel Farage has, in turn, pushed for his BREXIT Party to team up in a coalition with Johnson’s Conservatives for the December election. However, Johnson has so far refused the offer. That seems to be a wrong decision on Johnson’s part. This has resulted in Farage vowing that his party will contest every seat in England, Scotland and Wales against the Conservatives unless Johnson drops his BREXIT agreement, which Farage and his party believe is far worse than a no-deal BREXIT. Nigel told the BBC he will travel within Britain to support some 600 BREXIT Party candidates rather than by seeking a seat for himself. It is ironic that probably the best-qualified person to lead BREXIT is Farage, but he told the BBC: “I don’t want to be in politics for the rest of my life.”

Nigel Farage Interviews Donald Trump


The International Politics is Impacting Where People Can Travel


COMMENT: Marty; I don’t think you realize that when Nigel Farage said your events are the alternative to Davos, there is no other event that has such attendance. I have been to other trading conferences. They are lucky to have half your attendance and you have more institutions than even Davos. I know you keep trying to limit the size of these events, but we get to meet so many people from all over the globe. Your staff said you had attendees from over 50 countries this year. Please don’t reduce the size.

Thanks for the great conference. It was spectacular and provided detail that is really not available anywhere.

Cheers

Keep up the good work

EK

REPLY: I appreciate your perspective. We have over 1,000 attendees at these events each year and the demand keeps growing. This year, politics was playing in the background. The biggest institutions from China could not attend because of the trade dispute. They did not want to apply for a visa. So we will have to hold one in Shanghai in the Spring. Politics will only get worse. I do not know if we will be able to hold any in Europe starting 2021 due to the changes in the law for visas there. It is getting worse by the year. Our own staff in India were denied visas to attend the conference this year.

Many do not want to travel to the States and we have to accommodate our international clients. Each year it is getting more difficult.

BREXIT The Collapse of Democracy


QUESTION: Marty; You are more connected to BREXIT than any of these analysts. What is your view of this mess?

PH, London

 

ANSWER: What we are witnessing is the collapse of Democracy. The people voted for BREXIT and the losers do whatever they can to remain. Unfortunately, many of those in Parliament are in the REMAIN camp and have absolutely no rational evidence whatsoever why Britain is better in the EU than out. It is just political propaganda that remaining in the EU is somehow better than leaving. The Euro is a sinking ship and the REMAIN camp is honestly too stupid to even understand or objective enough to look at the trend.

Welcome to BREXIT, where the REMAIN camp has worked very hard to paralyze Westminster to crush the democratic process. Boris Johnson calls this the “zombie” parliament for it has accomplished nothing in three and a half years. Theresa May was in favor of the REMAIN Camp and this is what you get as a result.

The Britons will go on December 12th to a general election that will be dominated by the BREXIT issue and whether the country will go ahead and join the world economy of the sinking Eurozone. Less than 50% of Britain’s trade is with the Eurozone. Britain CANNOT cut a trade deal outside the EU because any of the members can veto any deal. Europe is pretending to be one nation, but it is a complete joke. Can you imagine if the president in the USA had to get the approval of all 50 states before he signed any trade deal? Nothing would ever get done. That is the structure of Europe.

The BREXIT Party of Nigel Farage is hoping to secure its first MPs in this December election. However, there is a split emerging between those who want to run in all 650 seats and others who would prefer to focus on a smaller, targeted list. The concern is that the BREXIT party could in some places hand a victory to a REMAIN candidate by splitting the vote. This is the concern about running in some areas. The fascinating aspect is that the computer pinpointed the week of December 9th as a Panic Cycle before the election was even announced. The question I have is the subtle movements of the markets apparently were indicating that there would be an election and they even targeted the week. This is just why Socrates is so much better than personal opinions that always begin with “I think” in some version or another. There is just so much more to how markets move than most people would ever imagine.

 

Migrants Rioting in Malta


The migrants trying to get into Europe for free welfare rioted on Monday in Malta setting cars on fire and attacking staff. Malta had agreed to house them temporarily in a detention center waiting for other EU countries to accept them for settlement. This illustrates the fears of many in Europe about all of these migrants who have been allowed to enter without skills in language or fields that would be suitable for employment. Despite the violence, European politicians simply cannot admit that this has been a huge mistake.