Raab Resigns from BREXIT negotiations – May is tottering on Losing the PM Post


The British pound has dropped 1% today and is trading in the mid 127 level. The rumor running around the City (the financial sector in London) is that Prime Minister May has called an emergency press conference and she will resign handing power to Michael Grove. However, it may be more likely that  Grove has been offered the job of Brexit secretary in the wake of Dominic Raab’s resignation. Theresa May clearly does not know how to negotiate. Perhaps she should ask Donald Trump to represent Britain in BREXIT negotiations. Thacertainlyin would liven things up and it certainly would end up with a much better deal for Britain.

The pro-BREXIT supporters are demanding a shift in the government’s negotiating strategy first.

BREXIT Nothing Like What the People Voted For


 

The draft deal of Prime Minister May smells really bad. It is clear that politicians are clueless about trade and the U.K. remaining within the (EU) customs union forever is really going to economically tie Britain to the EU without a right to even vote. What they do not get is that trade in the EU is not negotiated with a single government. Every member gets to veto a trade deal which prevents the entire 28 member states from acting in their own self-interest. So Britain cannot cut a trade deal with the USA or China without EU approval. Then the speculation goes that they will have to pay dues with no vote.

If Britain does approve the deal precisely on November 21st, 2018, then out long-term projections for the British pound are most likely going to be right on point. So let’s just hold our breath. Why should this not be absolutely just crazy? That is what we elect politicians with no experience in trading or economics to make major decisions in areas they are unfamiliar with

Perfect – Trump Tells Macron: “They were starting to learn German in Paris before the U.S. came along”…


This is what I call representing the red-blooded patriotic American.  Plain-speak, direct truth; what every middle-American would say to in the same or similar circumstance. And ironically, this is also (almost verbatim) one of the reasons Donald Trump earned my support in 2015:

(link)

The blood of Americans, provided the current freedom of France. Period.

Our inherent American DNA strain is liberty and freedom.  Within that core we achieve, drive, and transfer our united national essence into everything we do.  Even the wealth and economics of our nation are dependent on this cornerstone; it drives our entrepreneurial existence.  We know how to do things, create things, and think completely outside the box on new and innovative ideas for things.

Yes, we are exceptional like that.

Reminder:

  • Florida Power and Light won the prestigious International Edward Demming award for excellence in multi-platform engineering and efficiency superiority. They didn’t blow every global PhD business intellectual out of the water with slide rules, CAD programs and engineering acumen. They did it with hard hats and dirty fingernails.

Because they lost the award, the Japanese spent 6 months studying FP&L and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FP&L “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY….

  • When every single Kuwaiti oil field was blown up by Saddam Hussein, they said it would take 5 years to cap them all off and restart their oil pumping industry. The Kuwaiti’s and Saudi’s called Texans, who had them all capped and back in working order in 6 to 10 months.

We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.

  • When the Northern Chile mine workers were trapped two miles underground, they said no-one could save them. Who did they call for help? A bunch of hick miners from USA coal country who went down there, worked on the fly, engineered the rescue equipment on site, and saved everyone of them….

That’s our America.

  • When a half-breed Islamic whack job, armed with an AK-47 and a goal to meet his virgins, began opening fire on a train in France – the Americans on board didn’t run to the nearest safe room and hide themselves amid baguettes and brie. They said “let’s go”, and beat the stuffing out of that little Islamic nut with a death wish.

Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us.  That’s just how we roll.

Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre.  Yet for the better part of the past decade a group of intellectual something-or-others have been teaching an insufferable story-line that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other.

Enough.

When I hear Donald Trump say “Let’s Make America Great Again”, I also hear the familiar echo “cowboy up” people.

It’s high time we stop being embarrassed about our exceptional nature, and start being proud of it again.   Because when it matters most, when it really counts, when it’s really needed, there’s a whole bunch of people all around this world of ours that are mighty happy when swagger walks in to solve their problems.

Yeah, “let’s make America great again”.

Swagger on !

Donald J. Trump

Donald J. Trump

The Rise of Nationalism


Part of the War Cycle we have been warning about since it turned upward in 2014, is not merely international tensions between nation-states.  This particular uptick is the convergence of two cycle – (1) the international tension, and (2) the civil unrest. I previous warned that because the civil unrest would turn up, this should be the most dominant trend. This is always why Trump won the election in 2016. People are really turning against immigration because the economy has been turning down.

Armstrong Economics 2017 Cycles of War Report

We published detailed reports on this cycle with all the backup so it is not resting on just my personal opinion. Doing such research always means we CANNOT begin with an assumption and just allow the evidence to form the conclusion. Anything else is not really worth much. Some people will just simply say they do not believe in cycles. That is fine. We always need someone to trade against. Plus, the cycle is driven by people who say things precisely that. This is why it is also hopeless to try to prevent such events – our curse is really to just what the cycle and others that make it function and history to repeat.

Austria 26%
Bulgaria 9%
Czech Republic 11%
Denmark 21%
Finland 18%
France 13%
Germany 12.6%
Greeve 7%
Hungary 19%
Italy 17.4%
Netherlands 13%
Slovakia 8%
Sweden 17.6%
Switzerland 29%

 

Above is a list of Nationalist Parties and the percentage of the vote they have in Europe (see BBC). This is the trend and we should expect it to now pick up speed after 2018 going into particular 2020. Even in the United States, there is a rise of nationalism that the left keep calling “racist” but it is a natural trend when people fear they will be losing jobs and benefits to those migrating in. I have shown before that during the Depression of the 1840s, there were gun battles on the street of Philadelphia concerning the Irish Immigrants taking jobs. They could not call that racism, but it was part of the old English Civil War that never really healed – the Protestant v Catholics. They were burning down Catholic churches in Philadelphia as they have started to do with Mosques in Europe.

History repeat! It is really nothing new

Italy Refuses to Yield to Brussels – Is Another Exit in the Works?


Italy is arguing that it will retain its budget and refers to how both France and Germany exceeded their budgets and the Commission disregard the Maastricht treaty rules in the case of both countries. In the budget dispute, the Italian government was not deterred by the threat of penalties from the European Commission. Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said last week that Italy would commit “economic suicide” to stick to the plans of the previous government to reduce the deficit. Once again, anyone who really reviews the EU structure in an unbiased manner will see that the crisis stems from the plain fact that the FAILURE to consolidate the debts from the outset means that the EU Commission sticks its nose into every budget of each member.

In the USA the result of a federal budget and debt means that each state is on its own. Their budget is of no interest to Washington. In the case of the EU, each member state prints its own Euros – not the ECB. That means the EU Commission acts like a dictator applying the same rules to everyone regardless of the local social needs. This is why the Euro will fail. It is NOT a structure remotely similar to the USA despite they pretended it would reap the same benefit by just a single currency.

Eventually, Ital will be forced to choose between its people and the dictatorship of Brussels. That will be another whole level of political chaos next year.

SPD Puts forth Its Manifesto to Federalize Europe


In Germany, the SPD is now pushing for a revolution in Europe for all member states to surrender their sovereignty to Brussels. They are arguing to federalize Europe and thereby create an integrated Europe of one government. It was the SPD that really won in the German 1918 Revolution. Under Weimar, the SPD was able to put its ideas of social justice into practice by influencing a number of progressive social changes while both in and out of government. The SPD re-introduced and overhauled the Bismarckian welfare state, providing protection for the disadvantaged, the unemployed, the aged, and the young.  The SPD is a full-blown Socialist State advocate following the ideas of Karl Marx.

At theaters across Europe, the SPD organized a symbolic proclamation to create a “European Republic” which was announced from the balcony of the Hamburg Thalia Theater, as actors released the new the manifesto written by Ulrike Guérot and Robert Menasse on Saturday. The aim of the project is to sensitize the public to the idea of a pan-European democracy and statehood. The occasion is the 100th anniversary of the end of the First World War and the almost simultaneous proclamation of republics in various European countries.

The SPD manifesto calls for a Europe without nations and borders, thus to surrender sovereignty to prevent the resurgence of nationalism. EU Council President Donald Tusk has warned against the emergence of populist and anti-integration forces in Europe and the US. He has thus supported the federalization of Europe pointing out the isolationist tendencies in the USA and in Britain. The former head of the SPD Martin Schultz (19 March 2017 – 13 February 2018) also called for the federalization of Europe. They see no problem with suppressing 70% of the people who are not supporters of SPD

France – Macron’s Popularity in a Free-Fall


In France, things are not much better. Emmanuel Macron, the current president of the French Republic, has collapsed in popularity from 57% to just starting to break the 30% level. Macron has collapsed in popularity faster than Nicolas Sarkozy did, who was a one-term president. Macron said he wanted to turn France into the “Start-up nation” but really promised the same old traditional political agenda. Many are becoming concerned in France also about the massive immigration. Many French are calling it a Trojan Horse, for now, one-third of all births in France are from non-European.

The problem with all the immigration has been that they dropped all requirements for some sort of skill. This is why many on the legal immigrants in Britain voted for BREXIT for they had had to have the work skill to get in like a doctor or nurse. Trump carried Florida and the Mexican vote for the same reason. So many had to prove they had a skill and go through the Green Card process for years to get in. Nobody is considering the sacrifices others made to migrate. Even the great 19th-century migration from Europe to America, there were no free handouts. They came for the opportunity to work – not a free meal

May 2019 European Parliament Election Looking for Major Upset


The French Revolution is still alive and well. In France, French President Emmanuel Macron’s abysmal approval ratings have simply continued to collapse. He has suffered as the French have reviewed his elitist lifestyle mixed with his attempts to reform union and then throw in his controversial immigration policies. Many now believe he will collapse to under an approval rating of 10% perhaps matching his predecessor the socialist Francois Hollande, who was so unpopular, he didn’t even bother to attempt a second term.

Now, the National Rally (formerly National Front) party’s candidates for the May European Parliament election are beating Macron in the polls. This is the first time the far-right party has overtaken Macron’s centrist movement in the polls which is a mirror of events in Germany with the rise of the AfD. The May elections coming in 2019 appear to be headed to another major political blow for the EU. Macron’s “En Marche” ticket is failing as is the case for Merkel in Germany.

Europe Unemployment at 8.1% – The Economic Death Spiral of the EU


 

The latest data from Euro Stat for September 2018 demonstrates the complete failure of the ECB and its Quantitative Easing. The Euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate came in at 8.1% in September 2018, which was down slightly from the year/year perspective of about 8.9%. This above all proves that the entire theory of the Quantity of Money is bogus. It also demonstrates that the Austerity Policy of Europe has caused unbelievable social damage resulting in what is being called the Lost Generation with unemployment among the youth reach 60% in Southern Europe.

Without a COMPLETE rejection of Austerity and a COMPLETE overhaul of the European Union structure, there is absolutely NO HOPE what so ever of Europe coming out of the death spiral. This will only get worse as politicians, with ZERO experience in trading markets, will debate and refuse to accept responsibility for their actions. Then you opened the doors to refugees when unemployment is at a serious high? And you wonder why there will be civil unrest and backlash against migrants?

As Einstein pointed out, you cannot possibly solve our problems with the very same thinking process that was used to create them

The Fate of Germany v Euro – The Export Economic Model Risks


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I watched the new documentary on your solution. I really want to thank you for everything you do and for free. It is so nice to see someone who actually gives back and has no personal agenda to enrich themselves. My question is this. You mentioned the reason why the United States economy was the envy of the world and differentiated it from Germany which has an export model economy that is why they supported the euro, to begin with. What do you see for Germany ahead?

Thank you

CB

ANSWER: Germany has an export-dependent economy which has directly benefited from the continent-wide trade liberalization and the creation of the Euro which eliminated foreign exchange fluctuations for German manufacturers in Europe at least. However, that simply means that Germany also has the most to lose from a worsening Euro crisis and a resulting wave of Euroscepticism. The political freedoms lost with the creation of the Euro will tear Europe apart. The refusal to consolidate the debt within Europe was profound. The Italy Crisis demonstrates what I have been warning about. BECAUSE there is no central debt, Brussels sticks its nose into every budget of every member state. The economic conditions within Europe are different between each member. Germany is an export economy and Greece is a tourist economy. There are great differences between each member so one policy does not fit all.

They are trying to PRETEND they are creating the United States of Europe but that is a joke. The refusal to have consolidated the debts created an unsustainable political union. The USA has a federal debt and budget. Washington does not stick its nose into the budgets of all 50 states. They issue their own debt which is NOT ACCEPTABLE for reserves of any bank. They are also all on their own paying different rates of interest according to their credit rating. In the EU, they are trying to manage the budgets of every member which will only lead to political differences. The structure is absurd and then the banks have to be politically correct and hold the debt of all member states. Thus, the risk becomes if one member is in a crisis, they bring down the entire system. In the USA, if Illinois goes bankrupt, it has no impact on the dollar, the national debt, or politics in Washington.

The greatest risk to Germany is the collapse of the Euro means that the single currency relieved their manufacturers of having to manage currency risk. Suddenly, the currency risk returns, the export model fails, and the lack of a domestic consumer market means that the economic conditions in Germany decline rapidly because of their dependence upon everyone else doing well.