Stirring the Pot For War

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Many people have written in and asked why have I been unable to convince governments to avoid war. Quite frankly, they think they can win and more importantly, they need this because the entire socialistic system is collapsing. They rely on people buying their bonds year after year with no intention of paying anything back. This is just our time to collapse the same as communism collapsed in 1989 in China and Russia. We have run our course and the clock is running out of time. This is the 34th year since 1989. Socialism will collapse. It has no other choice here in 2023.

I have received videos from Ukrainian soldiers who are threatening to go after Zelensky. I was not given permission to post them so I do not want to get anyone in trouble. They are dying in far greater numbers than the rigged press is reporting and they are freezing.

Strategically, the US is attempting to create the Asian version of NATO aligning with Japan and the Philippines to rely on their soldiers to fight China. Meanwhile, in China, there is absolutely no question that they are preparing to take Taiwan and I believe this was accelerated by the Biden Administration (1) abandoning the one-China policy maintained since Nixon and allowing Pelosi to fly to Taiwan just ahead of the elections in China which was an absolute brain dead stunt. Consequently, China is gearing up for military action to take control of Taiwan because the Biden Administration has actually called their bluff. President Xi Jinping secured a historic third term last year and has made it clear he plans to retake Taiwan. Pay attention in May.

Meanwhile, with respect to North Korea, we would have to take into account their 1.2 million-man Korean People’s Army, which is organized into nineteen corps-sized units, including nine infantry corps, four mechanized corps, one armored corps, one artillery corps, the Pyongyang Defense Command, Missile Guidance Bureau and Light Infantry Instruction Guidance Bureau. More than half of these forces, particularly the mechanized, armor, and artillery forces are located near the DMZ, making an early cross-border assault unattractive. Kim and Putin have come to an agreement and will support each other. On the 72-year anniversary of the Koren War when they prevailed against the United States, Kim condemned “aggression moves” by Washington and Seoul, vowing to take revenge at a time of rising tension on the Korean Peninsula. Here too, it appears that Kim is preparing for war against at least the South and possibly expanding into Japan – a hated enemy.

The Middle East is heating up with Iran preparing for war against Saudi Arabia. This has prompted even Israel and Saudi Arabia to consider a joint defense agreement. Meanwhile, Iran and Russia have come together to also form an alliance. We may also expect that Syria will join on the side of Russia in the Middle East.

Looking at Iran just from the 1979 confrontation taking American hostages, the turning points for the last three waves, which are always the most intense, lined up with the 2014 turn on the Global War Model. The next wave was November 3rd, 2022 and here we see widespread civil unrest. In fact, the United Nations called it a critical situation on November 22nd, 2022.

The world is dumbfounded as to why in the hell we have world leader cheering war on every continent. I put forth a solution, some did not like it, but there is no other way out of this other than Schwab’s “Great Reset” which is really all about defaulting on all the national debts, the end of socialism, and the push for a one world government to end democracy so government retains power. Under my solution, the government would relinquish power. They did not like that. Schwab’s way leaves it necessary to create World War III, reduce the population escapes the pension liabilities, and start over with a new Bretton Woods II.

In 2008, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown joined French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in calling for better regulation of global financial markets.

“We urgently need what you might call the ‘new Bretton Woods,’ so that we can restore confidence in the system while dealing with the areas that have been exposed in recent weeks.”

I posted this video 5 years ago. It has only gotten worse.

Right v Wrong

Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, I have been following you now for a few years. You seem to be never wrong. You always say it is not your opinion. Is there some secret to how you do this? Nobody else seems to even compare. Or is it all just the computer?


ANSWER: We all are human and as such we make mistakes. I understand that the big picture with war and events seems to be never wrong. That is Socrates – not me. I have been wrong in regard to my interpretation at times, but the cycles are always correct like the ECM.

I was one of the first International Hedge Fund Managers. I had even warned Congress back in 1985 that they should merge the CFTC and SEC because complying with one meant you went to prison with the other. They forced funds management offshore. We are all connected. You cannot have gold rise to $10,000 and the dollar turns to dust and nothing else happens. The world economy is like a set of dominoes. If you get the first one right, all the rest will follow.

These people who try to forecast one market can NEVER be correct for the wildcard always comes externally. Right now, the Ukraine war is impacting the global economy and markets. You could not asses the impact by simply watching the Fed. If it were not for (1) the stupid lockdowns of COVID disrupting the supply chain, then (2) this proxy war against Russia and imposing the absurd sanctions on them when they are a key supplier around the world in many areas, then inflation would not have risen and the Fed would not be raising interest rates. Those in power simply only look in front of their nose. Every action has a ripple effect that impacts long-term events. We cannot escape that. I have designed Socrates to survive me. It is not my opinion and when I do express my opinion I state the difference. Even my interpretation of an array can be wrong, not the array.

Everything is connected. We cannot escape that. Without Socrates monitoring everything around the world and writing its own reports on over 1,000 instruments globally, there is nobody who can possibly compete with a personal opinion. The world is far too complex for an individual to see everything from a personal gut feeling.

Because I had focused on currencies from the collapse of Bretton Woods and was called into the first bank failure in 1973 because of a 7% move in currencies,  my company attracted clients from around the world. I had to see the world through everyone’s eyes – not just the dollar. In July 1985, I took the back cover of the Economist for 3 weeks announcing the end of deflation/peak in the dollar, and the reemergence of inflation, which led to the Japanese Bubble in 1989. Interest Rates peaked the very day at 1981.35. The end of that wave was 1985.65 the month of July. It was the beginning of a Private Wave which will end 2037.25.

We published charts back in Barron’s during the early 1980s showing gold in dollars compared to a basket of currencies. We ended up with the largest institutions in the world because our reports went out on telex and the communication costs per market were $225 per day. Only the biggest institutions could afford our services. Then came fax, and then email which has expanded our reach to everyone these days. But make no mistake about this. People may criticize me and others are desperate to try to prevent people from using us. It is either because they cannot compete and pretend this is my opinion rather than a computer, or they want to manipulate the markets and we just get in their way.

The War Against Nitrogen Fertilizer is More Than You Realize

Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Dec 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: As an ex-soldier, whilst reading your posts regarding the Right to bear arms, Nitrogen fertilizer, and Diesel fuel I suddenly got a brain warp to the past. In Rhodesia with sanctions on us, we developed a bomb using Nitrogen fertilizer, blue soap, and diesaline. It was similar to napalm. When the change came to Zimbabwe all our weapons were taken away from us and locked up. We also had to reapply for licenses for any private weapons. This shows that when you have an informed and prepared public the government is at a disadvantage. The current attack on fertilizer, auto fuels, and guns shows just how scared the WEF and their one world order are desperate to control these three commodities. WHY?

REPLY: I think you bring up a very good point that is often overlooked. Nitrogen fertilizer can be used to make bombs. They are doing their best to try to outlaw all guns. It seems they want more crazy people shooting up schools and then they demand the end to guns every time. There is no question that those in power KNOW the monetary system is collapsing. They have put forth Guaranteed Basic Income (GBI), NOT because they care about the people, they ONLY care about retaining power over the people. The EU has wiped out most pension funds with negative interest rates since 2014 and decrees that they must have government bonds between 70% and 90%. Scandinavia is outside of the EU.

The GBI is to prevent millions of people from storming the Parliament with pitchforks when they wake up and their pensions are gone. Eliminating guns and even Nitrogen fertilizers are part of the effort to disarm the people. What is taking place in the Netherlands and this insane demand to end Nitrogen fertilizers under the pretense of Climate Change is more suited for a B-Rated SciFi movie with green lizard aliens coming to eat all humanity. They are using Climate Change for Political Change.

The Only Question About Ray Epps That Matters | The Answer Will Bring Down The Machine w/ Darren Beattie

Benny Johnson Published originally on Rumble on July 30, 2022

I sat down with Darren Beattie to talk about Ray Epps after the NY Times did a puff piece on him.


Awaken With JP Published originally on Rumble on July 28, 2022

The Largest Humanitarian Crisis That No One Discusses

Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Mar 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yemen has been at war for the past seven years. A once great land of ancient trade, Yemen has become one of the poorest nations in the Arab world. Their GDP for 2021 was expected to reach only 26.9 billion USD. The World Bank estimated that over half of Yemen’s population lived in poverty prior to the pandemic, and that figure has now reached 71% to 78%.

The United Nations recently declared that 19 million people will go hungry in the coming months. Yemen is completely reliant on exports for basic necessities and 90% of its food supply is imported. One-third of imported wheat comes from Ukraine and Russia. The World Food Programme (WFP) said five million people are at “immediate risk” of slipping into famine-like conditions, and that their program needs $887.9 million to feed 13 million people over the next six months. Over 20.5 million people are without safe water as well.

Around 75% of the $14 billion donated to the nation came from the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, and the European Commission. The World Bank expects inflation to reach 45% in Yemen this year but the rial is already worthless and the nation has yet to adopt a safe reserve currency.

I have yet to see a Yemeni flag or virtue signaling for the people living in this particular war-torn country as it is not part of the agenda. The media rarely reports on Yemen and most journalists likely would not be able to recognize Yemen’s flag. People are not driving around with “We Stand With Yemen” bumper stickers, and schools are not requiring children to make sense of this war. The public does not discuss or shed tears for the people of Yemen who live in unfathomable conditions because they are not a piece of the larger agenda and no one can profit off of their suffering at this time.

If U.S. Intelligence Will Lie So Easily About Anything, Why Would We Believe Them About Ukraine?

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 19, 2022 | Sundance

Why would we believe anything from them about Ukraine?

(New York Post) […] “There have been no consequences. Twitter and Facebook still censor information based on political bias, and Congress takes no action. Many of the letter signers continue to be used as “experts” by the media.” (read more)

When we wrote about the media effort in 2018 {Go Deep}, specifically the collusion between the intelligence and national security agencies of the United States government, I asked the question, “Do we really think such a catastrophic level of corrupted journalism could reconstitute into genuine reporting of fact-based information?”  The answer then, as now, is the same, NO.  Indeed, it has only gotten worse in the past four years.

For the past several days, I have been highlighting a simple question on social media about something missing in the Ukraine story.

Where are the social media posts, from Ukraine citizens, that would support the narrative, as it is being told by Western media, about events happening in Ukraine?

Seemingly, Ukraine is the only conflict in modern human history where a pop culture society of more than 40 million technologically connected people decided not to document every moment of it on social media.

Considering the scale and scope of the conflict, and considering the Ukraine population of more than 40 million is far larger than Canada, and considering that population is located in a country the size of Texas, and considering they are a western technologically connected society with tens of millions of cell phones, we should be seeing a great deal of footage, pictures and images from ordinary Ukrainian citizens.  However, we don’t. Why?

I’m not talking about the professional war social media accounts, and/or military-centric accounts, which, to be fair do have lots of images and footage of Russian and Ukrainian conflicts.  I’m talking about the ordinary man/woman in the major population centers, who under normal circumstances would be generating tens-of-thousands of social media posts to Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Telegram, YouTube, etc.

Western media are telling us that Russia is randomly shelling, bombing and targeting all of these civilian targets in urban areas.  Yet, there’s nothing visible.  Almost everything you see is from Eastern Ukraine where a civil war has been ongoing for over a decade.

Whatever is happening in the rest of Ukraine is the least documented conflict in modern social media.  It just seems odd.  It’s as if there is a massive disconnect between the portrayal of western media, in comparison to the actual reality inside Ukraine.

(CNN Portugal) – [TRANSLATED] – Ukraine has opened the barracks to foreign fighters, who join an army that has to adapt those who have not been trained there. Some are Portuguese, “fighters in quotation marks”, as the government of the government Portuguese. Among these Portuguese there are former commandos, ex-paratroopers – and a 29-year-old mechanic, who spent 15 days at the Yavoriv military base, was bombed and left for not giving him weapons. I’ve never taken one before. It is the first account of a Portuguese about how the fighting lived at the military base and why he gave up fighting.

We call it n.s. The 29-year-old Portuguese mechanic had never taken a weapon of war in his life, but it was in the first waves of foreigners joining the Ukrainian military in the so-called international legion. He entered the Yavoriv military base on March 1. He left two weeks later – after the heavy Russian bombardments on this city of Ukraine, which caught him with the Ukrainians but unarmed.

N.S.’s account serves to realize an ongoing history in the war in Ukraine, which opened the borders, doors, barracks and arms to foreign fighters. Many continue to arrive, “knock on the door” at the border and say they want to fight. The first ones entered soon, now there are those who have signed up and are in hotels waiting to be called.

The international legion is seen with reservations by many experts and even governments – such as Portuguese – because there is everything: professionals and amateurs, mercenaries and volunteers, ex-military and people with no experience, who receive quick formations and weapons to hand.

They are “fighters in quotes”, so called them two days ago the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, without hiding their reservations. Portugal “does not agree with these procedures” of people, he stressed. “We understand that this is not the most effective way to support Ukrainians in their right to self-defense and is not part of the tradition or way of being of the Portuguese, nor is it the way Portugal contributes to international security,” explained the head of Portuguese diplomacy. Santos Silva commented on the news that at least seven Portuguese were in Ukraine with military objectives. Some of them were at the Yavoriv military base when it was attacked on Sunday by Russian troops

One of them was N.S.

From the couch to the war – What made N.S. take the car and go from southern France, where he has lived since 2014, to poland’s border with Ukraine to say he wanted to fight? One impulse: “I didn’t think it made sense to sit around and watch a country, civilians, including children, being killed. In addition, there is a risk that one day the Russians will attack the rest of Europe.” He made the decision and left overnight, leaving his wife and four-year-old son at home. “I left a letter explaining. It was a shock to her. It’s all right now.”

“When I got to the Ukrainian border I told him what I was going to. They then called some men who took me to the advanced command post. I was the subject of an interrogation. In the end, they took me to the military base, which was already active.” When he arrived, he signed an uncertain term contract “until the war was over” – that’s how he said it – and they gave him the uniform.

At first, he says, platoons with foreigners were not yet well organized and constituted. The volunteers walked around the base – a large structure, with several buildings and dressing rooms. He soon met Portuguese, a former paratrooper who, meanwhile, was placed on special forces teams that are on missions through Ukraine, to “clean up the cities attacked by the Russians”.

He spent 15 days at the base in training. He’d wake up at 6:30 a.m. and join the military parade in the courtyard to listen to the commander. At 7:00 a.m. they exercised and an hour later they had breakfast. The morning was then devoted to training. “They gave us lectures of various kinds. Some to know the Russian weapons and the weak points of the opponent, others about first-hand.” They had lunch and were still in training. In the second week he lived at the base began to have intensive training of combat tactics, offensive, lines of defense, among many other topics. “I learned the art of war,” says N.S., who at a young age tried to join the Marines but broke an arm, which prevented him from following his career.

N.S. was one of the Portuguese volunteers who were at the Yavoriv military base on Sunday when Russia bombed the land in that area, just 25 kilometres from the NATO border. A few hours later, at least 35 people were killed and 134 wounded in the attack on the base near Lviv.

Because he had no military experience, he did not have weapons assigned that day. Unlike other colleagues, I had never left the base on a mission. “It was planned that that day – when the bombing took place – my platoon would finally receive the weapons.”

It was a night of terror, he reports. “I was in bed when I was 4 in the morning I noticed from the noise that we were going to be attacked.” At the first explosion he jumped out of bed. Since he always slept dressed in his uniform, he just had to stick his boots on his feet – he didn’t even tie them – pick up his phone and get out of the dressing room.

Unarmed, he even made a first attempt to go to the area where the special forces were installed, to see if there were weapons, “but at that time everything was still locked.” He was in the middle of the explosions.

“I watched live two explosions and two buildings falling. About 100 meters away, a missile went straight into a barracks where people were, was destroyed, burned. The same thing happened in front of me in a building by the canteen.” I could feel the missiles going over him. “I’m not quite sure of the time, I think there were many for 30 minutes.”

Without weapons, he recalls, he went into hiding in the nearby forest, as the security protocol that was transmitted to them. He stood there, in the middle of the trees, where other colleagues were, until everything calmed down. “When the missiles were over, we returned to the base and were regrouped to see if there were dead, missing or injured. It took four hours to regroup and put together the defense plan.”

At the base there would be about 2000 in several companies, he estimates. These, based on the strategic plan defined, were spread over several points of defense of the base, that of N.S. was on the runway of helicopters. They were ordered to stay in line with the defense, “to defend the basis of the Russian attack that everyone believed was going to happen.” In the area where it was placed there would be about 200 volunteers, mostly unarmed. That’s when his distress and that of some other military personnel began. “We made ‘pools’ trying to get supplies and weapons.”

It was after he decided to abandon the Ukrainian army, leave the base and return home. “After the bombing, everyone in the army thought there was going to be a russian ground attack. And that’s why they told us to stay in lines of defense. I stood there, no gun, no vest, no helmet. I realized that I could not continue like this”, tells CNN Portugal the volunteer who prefers to keep discretion in his identification for fear of being confused with a mercenary, which he guarantees not to be. “My goal was to fight, and if I died, it would be a gun in my hand. So we were just cannon meat.” (read more)

Col Douglas Macgregor Discusses Outlook for Ceasefire in Ukraine

Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 18, 2022 | Sundance 

During a segment last night, Colonel Douglas Macgregor discussed the perspective for a ceasefire and peaceful resolution to the Ukraine conflict.

The resolution issue is a very critical point, because the U.S. State Dept (CIA) and the DC political machine are standing firm in their collective desire for a long-term insurgency campaign against Russia using Ukraine as a proxy war.  Macgregor notes the geopolitical and global economic outcomes from a protracted interventionist NATO/western approach at using Ukraine for conflict against Russia.  WATCH:

Additionally, Michael Tracey (via Substack) has some background information on the Russian cruise missile attack against the military training facility located outside Lviv, near the border with Poland.  This is well worth reading, because it connects to the larger effort of the U.S. to conduct an insurgency campaign regardless of what Ukraine President Zelenskyy might desire.

(Tracey) – […] The city of Rzeszow, Poland, about 60 miles from the Ukraine border, is currently crawling with all manner of spooks, freelance war adventurers, sketchy profiteers, and assorted others. I just overheard a top official at a Washington-based NGO, which I won’t name at the moment, bragging that their “security” operations on the front lines in Ukraine are being manned by a “former Special Ops guy” — meaning a veteran of the US Military who formerly worked in “Special Operations.”

Of course, to what extent these guys can truly be characterized as “former” military, especially if they’re doing active logistics in a combat zone, is an open question. 

I also heard a translator working for a notable US journalist state that he/she personally helped facilitate the entry of American “veterans” into Ukraine through Poland, en route to do God knows what exactly. Putin has said that incoming supplies of “aid,” as well as inflows of “foreign mercenaries,” will be considered legitimate military targets — and Russia’s strike Sunday on a military facility just 15 miles from Poland was said to be an example of him following through on the threat.

This raises the very distinct possibility of US combat fatalities in the near future, even if the US individuals in question are not technically on active duty — or at least publicly acknowledged as such. What do you think the public response will be, if Russian missiles successfully strike a group of “American veteran volunteers” who have shown up to fight in Ukraine? Especially given the mounting predictions about the alleged imminence of chemical and/or biological attacks? (read more)

There were reported 200+ mercenaries killed in the cruise missile attack against the facility near Lviv.  The Daily Mail reported over 1,000 foreign fighters were housed in the facility at the time. […] A Ukrainian officer said there were around 1,000 foreigners at the camp – officially known as the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security – at the time. (read more)

After a few initial media reports about the cruise missile strikes at the training facility, the story essentially disappeared.  The question remains if any U.S. nationals, mercenaries or contractors, were at the compound and whether any were killed or injured.

An American foreign fighter, who would identify himself only as “Zander,” said he was injured March 13 in a Russian airstrike on the “International Center for Peacekeeping and Security” in Yavoriv, located in far Western Ukraine. The strike drew much notice because it was the most westward attack yet committed by Russia, just around 15 miles from the Polish border. (more)