Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Dear Sir,
Hello from Europe and a hopeful new year.
In WW2 in Athens, people were exchanging their apartments for a few liters of olive oil, hence real estate went really down.
The short question that you can answer even with a yes or no:
If this year’s aggressivity in terms of war actions will rise, what happens? Will real estate fall on the first stage and then – due to governmental actions – will rise again?
It is a bit confusing while I am trying to understand the mechanism… economy is not simple at all.
ANSWER: The real truth about real estate and war, declines the closer you get to the action. When we look at our models for European real estate, it clearly shows 2023 as a directional change and it appears to be heading into a Panic Cycle for 2027. Our leaders project like we should all go charge into Russia and defeat it in a matter of weeks or just days. Besides the fact that they never discuss that civilian deaths are twice as high as military, they also never talk about how the net worth of everyone in Europe will decline. Your house will decline in value for (1) people are not interested in buying a new home in times of uncertainty, and (2) interest rates will rise sharply due to inflation which is also part of the war cycle.
Lydia, in modern Turkey where coins were invented, shows the impact of war. It was Lydia v Person (Cyrus the Great) and we see the very first debasement in recorded history which accompanies war. The coinage was debased showing roughly a 25% devaluation in the purchasing power during the 6th century BC.
The Peloponnesian War in Greece saw the Athenian Owl reduced from silver to bronze and just silver plated. We find the same trend in Rome. There is NEVER any exception to this rule.
Beware, as the West insists upon expanding this war, you are sacrificing all your life savings in real estate for the political nonsense of our leaders in Europe as a whole. They are true war criminals. They could settle this in a day. Just honor the Minsk Agreement.
Armstrong economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
It turns out that North Korea-backed hackers stole a record $1.7bn of cryptocurrency in 2022, according to blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis. It also appears that they had a hand in the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX where the auditors have reported that around $415m of cryptocurrency has been stolen by hackers. This is becoming a very interesting story with several facets from funding North Korea to laundering money for Zelensky to pay off the Democrats for the Midterm elections.
There is no way they will let this case go to trial. They will have to cut a deal or they are going to need to have some pumped-up loser kill him when on bail, or Judge Lewis Kaplan will have to revoke his bail and put him in MCC where they can kill him easily and blame another inmate and the guards fell asleep once again and, of course, the camera didn’t work.
At the end of the day, North Korea has been making a lot of money hacking into cryptocurrencies. Your crypto is going to a good cause – World War III to achieve Bill Gate’s dream – population reduction since the vaccines did not kill enough people off – yet.
Amstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The European Central Bank has just announced its monetary policy statement that the “will stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term target.”
Besides inflation, the other problem that governments are having is that there is a lack of a bid on the long end. That is why Yellen proposed swamping in long-term for the short-term. Furthermore, it is becoming obvious that Western governments are pushing for war with Russia and China. Institutions have been frantically calling us about restructuring their portfolios because war is coming, they see the debt expanding and rates rising further so why buy the long-term only to lose money?
Then we have Klaus Schwab and George Soros who are pushing for world war perhaps because they are so old and do not expect to be here anyway – so why not take a bunch of us with them? Like an Egyptian Pharoah who has all his servants killed upon his death to travel with him to the next world to serve him.
So we have inflation, war, and the ultimate end game of defaulting on the debt as they did after World War II and creating a new Bretton Woods with cryptocurrency so they can track everything we do. Welcome to the wonderland of Klaus Schwab where you own nothing, and will be a mindless ant in a clever Lenistic world of perfect order and absolute control.
Posted originally on Rumble on February 1, 2023
Biden controlled by China
Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Feb 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Hi AE…so gov’t “money” (fiat currency) will become just some abstract floating measurement of value, an electronic entry in an electronic account in the cybersphere. As these various so-called gov’ts become less reliable, even between themselves, do you see the possibility of them simply skipping their phony currencies, & trading directly in gold. Russia could ship a specific quantity of crude to China, for a specific amount of gold bars. Your argument about the impracticality of a gold-backed currency makes sense, but what about large transactions being settled in gold?
ANSWER: The entire problem that people do not grasp with regard to any return to a gold standard is that if the money supply is FIXED in any way, that necessitates the collapse of SOCIALISM. The two are directly linked. Politicians only know how to run with deficits. Vote for me and I will give you this or that!
The Bretton Woods gold standard collapsed because they FIXED the price of gold at $35, but they continued to print money far beyond the supply of gold at that fixed price. In addition, you have a business cycle. There will be times when no matter what the money might be, there will be boom times when the value of money declines and the asset values rise.
This argument over gold v fiat is absolutely just nonsense. The wealth of any nation is the productive capacity of its people. For centuries, the business cycle has existed and that is the entire cause for the “inflation” in assets when money declines in value, and then the “deflation” in assets with the value of money rises. Arguing over what we use for money will NEVER stop the business cycle.
The cycle is also in part driven by all governments. It becomes a drug of power that is abused. It would not matter what we use for money right now, they want to create World War III so they can default, and escape from the abuse of this Marxism that they have turned into a system of borrowing every year with no intention of paying anything back. But we have reached the confrontation between Keynesianism where central banks are expected to prevent inflation by rising interest rates, but that has no impact on the government which has become the biggest borrower in the system.
We are going BUST not because of the money we use, but because of the abuse of power in government which has always existed since ancient times.
Trust me. Forget gold standards. They will never work because all governments act only in their own self-interest. You should have learned that with COVID. They will never admit any mistake EVER! It is far better to keep gold on our side of the table and we can then use it as a hedge against governments. They are seeking to move to digital currencies ONLY so they can track when you hired the 16-year-old girl next door to babysit for you so they can go after her for the government’s 50% share.
Even Bitcoin is fiat. There is no backing. People have dived headfirst into cryptocurrency on the entire proposition that they are limited. All they have done is proven my point. Money, historically, has been everything from seashells and cattle to bronze, silver, and gold. Of all the various forms of money, only bronze and cattle had any real commodity value based on utility.
The Egyptians really invented paper money for the farmers would deposit their grain and receive a receipt which was a bearer instrument used in trade. They also used raw metal, not coins, and traded based on weight, as it stated in the Bible. Here is a piece of pottery from Egypt recording a complaint about taxes written in Greek. It stated the sum amounted to a total of 90 talents of silver with 15 talents of tax on the transfer of land – 16.6%.
For thousands of years, Egypt had no coins until it was conquered by Alexander the Great, and upon his death, his general Ptolemy I (305/304 – 282 BC) took the throne and it was his Greek line from which Cleopatra VIII came – not Egyptian.
Our system is starting to implode. Never in the history of human civilization have governments demanded taxes on income requiring reporting every year. This was the gift of Karl Marx. Just as this Egyptian tax on the transfer of land, we see that property taxes and a form of sales tax were the norms.
The American Constitution was intended to give thenational government greater power to raise revenue because the previous Articles of Confederation had been a fiscal disaster. Nevertheless, most people remained fearful of taxation by governments. Indirect taxes were to be the way to secure our liberty from tyrannical governments. It was generally understood that indirect taxes meant taxes on consumption like a retail sales tax and/or excise taxes on imports. It was believed that indirect taxes did not lend themselves to abuse by tyrannical governments. Consequently, the general belief was that “direct taxes” has to be taken off the table. Incomes taxes, throwing out the window of all the wisdom of the ages, were imposed by the new age of Marxism in 1913.
Our computer warns that 2025 will be the turning point in Marxism.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Feb 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The Federal Reserve raised the benchmark by 25 bps, as expected. The Fed fully understands that the manipulation of the CPI is a necessary aspect both for containing government benefits and understating inflation also results in high tax revenues. The market loves hope, and as a result, they focused on the warning that we’ll be in restrictive territory for just a bit longer. Most still believe that there will be a slowdown in inflation just ahead.
The Fed’s cautionary commentary saying that the “disinflation process” has started triggered shares to jump ending up 1%. This shows how insane the analysis had become that they cheer a recession and think that lower interest rates are bullish for the stock market. Obviously, they just listen to the talking heads on TV and have never bothered to look at reality. When interest rates decline, so has the stock market. Interest rates rose for the entire Trump Rally, and they crashed during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. For the life of me, I just shake my head when the talking heads cheer lower rates and spread doom and gloom with higher rates.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Gallup has just confirmed what our computer has been forecasting especially since 2011. The majority of Americans now say that a lack of leadership from President Biden and Congress is the country’s biggest problem and that means the entire world. Perhaps aliens should have a right to vote for the decisions of the Biden Administration are destroying lives around the world.
The Gallup Poll shows that it is the collapse of confidence in a government that is now viewed as the greatest threat even more so than inflation, the immigration crisis, and the state of the economy. Despite Americans suffering economically with higher taxes and inflation reducing the standard of living, they have cited that “the government/poor leadership” is now in the No. 1 spot taking that place from inflation over the past year. Gallup has reported that 21% of Americans name our incompetent government as the “most important problem facing this country today” compared to the 15% who said so last year, a Gallup Poll found.
Inflation and the economy came in last year as the top two issues — tied at 16% each — followed by the government (15%), immigration (8%), and unifying the country (6%). However, over the past year, Americans’ concerns with the economy fell 6% to 10%, with inflation falling one point to 15%, and immigration rose 3 points to 11%.
Just wait until they realize that the Biden Administration is so incompetent, it has allowed the Neocons to wage World War III on two fronts – China and Russia. These people will destroy Western Civilization and that is what 2032 is all about.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Fox Business is reporting that economic conditions are much worse than you are being told. Unfortunately, this is the conclusion when you have ZERO understanding of the historical trends and economic conditions. It is true that the shortages of COVID have caused prices to rise faster than economic growth and most incomes. Therefore, they conclude that our standard of living has been rapidly declining. The number reveals that more than one-third of all U.S. young adults are being supported in part by their parents. Thanks to COVID, this disrupted society far greater than anyone is reporting. In addition to the shortages because of the lockdowns, by the end of 2020, more than half of young adults in America were living with one or both parents. That statistic actually exceeded the record high of the Great Depression.
Here is the worst part of this analysis. Many are jumping on the bandwagon claiming that the decline in real disposable income has been the largest since 1932 and therefore, this is a warning sign of a Great Depression is coming. They seem to be focused on the fact that the GDP report showed a significant decline in real disposable income, which fell over $1 trillion in 2022. Now let’s look closer!
First of all, the entire reason why unemployment rise to 25% during the latter part of the Great Depression was the Dust Bowl. Why? At that time, about 40% of the civil workforce was still agrarian. The Dust Bowl meant job loss. If you could not even plant crops, there was no need for people to pick crops.
Service during the Great Depression accounted for 17% of the workforce compared to 44%+ today. Government, federal, state, and local, was 22% of the civil workforce during the Great Depression compared to 33% by 1980. Things have continued to evolve and by 2019, services represent 79.41%. Agriculture is now a tiny fraction of what it once was – 1.41%.
In the USA, at the state level, their share of the civil workforce varies greatly. Florida is at about 11.3% compared to New Mexico which is 22.5% – a government employee’s paradise. The lowest is Michigan at 10.1%.
During the Great Depression, the entire reason for the collapse in disposable income was the collapse in agriculture which created a collapse in income due to massive unemployment. That is totally different from the crisis we have today.
Here we have rising prices due to shortages and then central banks raising interest rates in a fool’s quest to stop inflation when it is not based on speculation. Moreover, the biggest borrower is the government, and rising interest rates will only increase their exposure to keep rolling over the debt. Therefore, governments have been borrowing year after year. What happens when the public no longer buys their debt? Real disposable income has been collapsing for completely different reasons since 1932. Here we have the costs of everything rising and then these people want war with Russia and China. Every war since the start of recorded history has resulted in inflation. Add to this, the total insanity of trying to end climate change by outlawing fossil fuels at a time when the climate is prone to getting colder.
We are already witnessing riots around the world BECAUSE of inflation. During the Great Depression, people were suffering from DEFLATION. So comparing just that statistic of a decline in personal income and projecting we now face a Great Depression, does not even qualify to be classified as analysis. That is no different from someone warning that carrots must be lethal because everyone who has ever eaten a carrot has obviously died.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
The people who are pushing for World War III attack anyone who tells the truth about Ukraine is suddenly a “Putin Supporter” when in fact they are the new merchants of death who have no regard for human civilization or history. I have dealt with every country surrounding Ukraine including Ukraine. ALL OF THERE NEIGHBORS say the same thing – beware of Ukrainians.
Austria and Hungary have come out and refused to send weapons to Ukraine. Hopefully, when this turns really ugly, their countries may be spared. Ukraine is filled with Nazis and their hatred for Russians knows no limit. NATO troops are already there without a formal declaration of war. If they die in battle, Ukrainians are choppy off their heads and hands so they cannot be identified which would expose NATO’s involvement.
I have warned that the West is the aggressor and have once again lied to the people. Zelensky stood up on February 23rd, and stated to the world that Ukraine would arm itself with nuclear weapons. Putin made a speech to the Russian people that night and launched the invasion the next day. VP Harris at the Munich Security Counsel bluntly told Ukraine to join NATO. Then Merkel admitted that the Minsk Agreement which was to allow the Donbas to vote on their own independence was a sham only to buy time for Ukraine to build an army to start World War III.
I reported that Ukraine had lost nearly 50% of its army. That was classified information from the Ukrainian side. I got emails saying, of course, that was Russian propaganda. The head of the EU stated that same figure at first and then had to take it out because Zelensky did not want his people to know the death toll.
Zelensky stood before Congress and bragged that his propaganda machine defeated Russia and had won the minds of the West, which only proved this is really a war to destroy Russia. Zelensky was an actor with no experience in anything else. He was put in place for this role. He has been doing everything to create World War III – that’s his real job.
Any world leader who gives 10 cents to Ukraine should be thrown out of office forthwith!