Martin Armstrong’s “The Solution”


Published on Mar 20, 2017

Martin Armstrong outlines his solution to the madness going on in Washington

Cologne Institute of German Business Warns of Deposit Protection May Not Survive in Europe


The Cologne Institute of German Business sees in the planned European deposit insurance is simply incapable of proving protection against a bank crash in Europe. The EU deposit guarantee is simply not practical under any concept of austerity. The Eurozone still has inherent significant risks in the balance sheets of European financial institutions. This is primarily because where the USA took the bad loans from the banks and stuffed them into Freddie and Fanny, in Europe, the bad loans are still on the books of the banks. Systemically, this has been the leading problem why Europe has been unable to recover and Quantitative Easing merely robber savers of their income and it failed completely to stimulate the economy. Banks were still reluctant to lend and people would not borrow if they did not have confidence in the future.

The proportion of bad loans is so different between the individual banks that a joint deposit guarantee leads to a permanent transfer mechanism. This is a complete disaster and pulls the EU apart. As the worse banks are in Southern Europe, Northern Europe will see this as a bailout for the South. Therein lies the very crisis and why the structure of the Eurozone from the outset has been such a complete disaster. All national debts of member states should have been consolidated and that should have become the European National Debt. Thereafter, member states should have been on their own. But that common sense design was ignored for political purposes. Any consolidation of debt was seen as a bailout for weaker member states. This inherent disparity simply remains intact with no solution in sight.

The recapitalization costs for eliminating non-performing loans (NPLs) just in Cyprus will still consume 2.4% of GDP in that member state. In Greece, any recapitalization will cost 2% of GDP and in Italy 0.8%. The disparity among members smacks of transfer payments which have been a sore subject behind the design of the Euro. A closer look at Italy reveals that more than 10% of the balance sheets of Italian banks constitute bad loans. The cost to bailout Italy is put at €189 billion while Spain comes in around €100 billion and even France will be €85 billion. In Germany, the bad loans amount to about €48 billion

While nobody wants to talk about it, the obvious issue is why has Deutsche Bank not been merged with Commerzbank? The bad loan problem a derivatives problem would simply not be solved even by such a merger.

Is it any wonder why politicians have looked to bail-ins rather than bailouts

The US Two-Tier Monetary System that Ended in 1971


QUESTION: You said the US had a two-tier monetary system under Bretton Woods. Can you explain that one, please?

DHJ

ANSWER: When Roosevelt confiscated gold, he created, in reality, a two-tier monetary system quite frankly as the medieval city of Florence. The Great Financial Panic of 1344 was when the value of silver rose dramatically blowing out the silver/gold ratio. Silver was used locally for the normal people. Their wages were paid in silver. The gold florin was used for international trade and companies had to keep actually two sets of books with accounting in each separate currency.

When Roosevelt confiscated gold, he devalued the dollar from $20.67 per ounce of gold to $35. Gold remained the unit of account for INTERNATIONAL transactions. While the last silver dollar was at first still minted, it was decided to end that production as well. Therefore, the last U.S. silver dollar to be struck was that of 1935. Nonetheless, the government then maintained silver as a backing for the currency domestically and issued Silver Certificates until 1963.

When the price of silver was rising with just about all other commodities during the early 1960s, the pressure was mounting on the financial system. President Kennedy authorized the abandonment of silver as a backing for the currency. He allowed the silver certificates to be redeemed for silver bullion. However, the minimum lot accepted for redemption was 5,000 for this was the size of the silver bars.

Therefore, in 1963 is when we see the beginning of the end in the two-tier monetary system. Between 1964 and 1971, the gold standard remained intact until President Nixon was forced to close the gold window ending the convertibility of dollars to gold internationally.

So, you see, the United States maintained a two-tier monetary system like Florence, silver for domestic use and gold for international trade. The difference was that when the silver/gold ratio broke, people were laid-off and unemployment soared. The people stormed the palaces of the bankers, plundered them, and then set them on fire.

ECB is Charging the Banks for Supervising Them


Eurozone commercial banks will have to pay the European Central Bank 12% higher fees this year. The Eurozone banks must pay €474.8 million in fees for the supervisory services of the ECB. The cost of supervising the banks has risen to over €500 million and the ECB was to be paid. The ECB, on the one hand, claims that Quantitative Easing will stimulate the economy, but it raises its fees and taxes keep going up. The ECB monitors some 118 financial institutions directl

Marxism to be Challenged on the High-Seas by Robot Ships?


A new technology is underway in the construction of the first robot cargo ship. This will be the first unmanned cargo ship to set sail. It is being constructed by Rolls-Royce. There is a catch. The international laws on shipping were set in place because of unions. As is, international shipping law states that ocean-going vessels must be “properly” crewed. What is the definition of that “properly crewed” will be something for the courts to decide. If a robot can construct a car, does that mean it is not a proper car? Therefore, fully autonomous, unmanned ships may currently not be allowed in international waters under the present interpretation, but that is definitely something subject to challenge in a legal proceeding.

As such, the Yara Birkeland, its official name, will operate close to the Norweigan coast at all times for now between three ports in the south of the country. If that goes well, then look for this to become a new challenge to the interpretation of old Marxist union laws.

Trump v Obama Trillion Dollar Deficits


QUESTION: You ignore that Trump will create a deficit of a trillion in one year with his tax cuts for the rich. What do you have to say about that one!

HT

ANSWER: So what? Obviously, you probably are a CNN watcher. They never said anything about Obama who created the first trillion deficit and maintained that throughout his presidency between 2009 to 2012. What does it matter? Nobody ever intends to pay it back. Just in case you just noticed, that is the least of our problems. Try talking about the Pension Fund Crisis that will hit all the people directly. The Trump deficit will put money back into the economy directly whereas the Obama deficits were never something that actually stimulated the people directly. It was like Quantitative Easing – welfare for the bankers, not the people.

Beware of Household Income Interpretation


 

I have warned that one of the clever ways taxes are raised is by changing the definition of the rich. We can see that when FDR came into office, the definition of the rich became $5 million because he was planning to introduce the payroll tax and everyone had to pay. That was a lot of money when a Cadaliac cost $600. After the war, the definition dropped dramatically. Then we see in the ’90s, the definition was raised to $250,000.

However, this is called “household” income. They have already begun to apply this to people with disability. If a parent is disabled and is living with a child, the government wants to reduce the social security benefit because the “household” income is too high, So in a clever way, the government is denying you social security benefits if your combined income with you children exceeds their threshold.

The talk behind the curtain is that since children over 30 are living with their parents, the “household” income should now include all children living with their parents. Of course, they fail to see that they are creating a crisis by forcing children out the door who cannot afford an apartment by sending their parent tax rate higher. They never consider the social impact of taxation.

For the Health Insurance Marketplace, a household usually includes the tax filer, their spouse if they have one, and their tax dependents who are children they claim. Under Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), they have adopted this new definition of household income called Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI). The government is defining households and income for the purposes of determining eligibility for benefits based on everyone in the house.

If you got divorced on December 31st, the tax code will be applied to a single person at a higher rate for the entire year. If you claim Head of Household as an unmarried person for tax purposes, the qualifying person is limited to your son or daughter or eligible foster child – not even your parents.

Beware of applying the definition of “household” income to the income tax. That is clearly another thing on the Democrat’s wish list.

The First Representative Form of Money


Egyptian Monetary System

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I was discussing the history of money with a professor at our university where they have a display of coins. I asked why were there no Egyptian coins. He referred me to your site and said that you are the expert in the world monetary system. I read your piece on the Egyptian deben monetary system. The Egyptians began with a representative money rather than coins. Is this the oldest civilization with pyramids and paper money?

JY

Tutankamun-Coffin

mycaene-Gold-cup-55ANSWER: From a monetary perspective, the Egyptian monetary system is by far the first representative form of money. In other words, they used a derivative of paper money proving that money also need not be tangible as has been the case in modern times. The central element of any monetary system hinges upon whatever the people “believe” has value. In Egypt, gold was seen as the tears of god and was reserved EXCLUSIVELY for royalty. Gold did not serve as any sort of medium of exchange until about 700 BC. Why? For anything to serve as the medium of exchange it must exist in sufficient quantity. As long as gold was rare, it was exclusively the property of kings and represented a luxury with no PRACTICAL value whatsoever.

Egypt’s monetary system began with barter. It was primarily based on agriculture – grain. This evolved into official Graineries and a farmer would then take his crop to the Grainery and receive a receipt. With time, the monetary system evolved where people would then accept these receipts (paper money) in payment.

The huge difference between Egypt and Mesopotamia can be seen through the monetary system. The earliest use of metal appears to be in Mesopotamia cast in the form of silver rings. In ancient Egypt, silver was probably more expensive than gold which was rather common after the exploitation of the Numbian mines. Evidence supporting this idea comes from a New Kingdom Period wall painting depicting a man weighing big gold rings which were discovered in Thebes. This is the Deben Monetary System.

Eventually, gold rings became customary to carry out trade with the outside world. So we tend to find the beginning of a two-tier monetary system using grain receipts for local small transactions and gold rings for international payments of a higher monetary value. We see this type of two-tier monetary system throughout the ancient world right into modern times. Ancient Athenian Decadrachms are traditionally discovered around the Mediterranean seaport rather than in Greece reflecting they were high denominations used in international trade. Bretton Woods used gold dor international payments and paper money for domestic US transactions when gold was illegal for citizens to possess. The two-tier monetary system lasted in modern times up until August 1971.

To make trade between Phoenicia and Mesopotamia easier they created a system that could have been based on the traditional Egyptian measurement known as deben that was equal to about 86 grams, which would exchange for 12 shekels used by Babylon and Phoenicia of about 7.2 grams per unit. Pictured here is a dishekel of the Phoenician city of Tyre, which is believed to be the earliest known coin circa 450-425BC. The date of the first Phoenician coins is uncertain. The earliest date generally accepted by scholars is about 450 BC and initially, the coins were all silver with weights based on variations of the Babylonian shekel of 7.2 grams. The most interesting aspect is that Phoenicia possessed no precious metal mines. The source of their silver came from trade with distant mines in Spain and possibly Sardinia. The motif is that of a dolphin riding the waves and the reverse with the wisdom of the owl.

Now, just to address your comment that Egypt has the oldest pyramids, that is an incorrect statement. Caral has the distinction of being the oldest known city in the Americas and one of the oldest in the world. In fact, the Caral Pyramids were built approximately 5,000 years ago and they are actually OLDER than the Egyptian pyramids by around 100 years. They predate the Inca Pyramids by some 4000 years. Like other pyramids in history, the Caral pyramids are believed to have religious significance. There are six total pyramids.

The Norte Chico civilization flourished between the 4th and 2nd centuries BC. It appears to have been simply a barter civilization, yet there are many mysteries yet to be solved. For instance, there remain some very curious questions unanswered such as why are there no surviving evidence of ceramics? They appear to have used gourds instead of ceramics. Gourds may be good for storage and drinking or eating, but would not function as pots for cooking. There appears to also be missing any evidence of agriculture so it is possible they never eat bread. We do know that they used blue whale vertebrae as stools suggesting that they lived off the sea. It is entirely possible that they eat fish raw like the Japanese.

On some of the gourds, figures have been discovered which may represent a deity. Very few have survived but they may represent some form of a god reflecting a religious belief system that appears to be common to all civilizations. There is also no sign of significant surviving art perhaps because they were made from organic material, which did not survive.

Bernie Proposed Everyone Gets a Job & Free Healthcare


 

You really have to wonder just when will these people stop with the promises of robbing the rich to hand out free everything to everyone else. Bernie Sanders wants to introduce a plan to guarantee everyone a job at $15 an hour. He is clueless that if you raise wages, people spend more and prices rise and will NOT remain the same. You end up back where you started. To begin with, not everyone wants a job. There are plenty of people who have no problem living off of welfare. But he also wants to guarantee healthcare to everyone. That may be a wonderful idea, but you MUST first nationalize all hospitals and then doctors must become government employees. You have to lower the wages of doctors and you have to eliminate the lawsuits or specify how much you will be paid for what injury.

Without a comprehensive structural reform, all these proposals are absolutely worthless and would bankrupt the entire system as is. We simply have to let it burn down to the ground and start from scratch. Healthcare and education will ONLY become affordable when people cannot get insurance and to stay in business, prices will have to drop.

CURIOSITY that is the key to Everything


COMMENT:

Sorry, the question being, how could it or could it be possible for, people first-time buyers, and foreign buyers to all happily own houses while supporting growth and the economy. I hope one day and highly think plausible in thousands of years time u will be looked back on as our generations Socrates , only this time hopefully all your information will be saved a spread for education, and s new renaissance, what with information storage, internet, and common sense must prevail common sense from understanding this education.

All the very best will get to one of those conferences, one day enjoy.

Ps best education comes from grieving I reckon sorry for your loss, she’ll be even prouder, all the very best and to your health sir and dedicated staff.

 

 

REPLY: We are all on a journey through this life to gain knowledge. If you do not assume you know everything, then you keep your mind open and you actually learn at all ages. There was a professor at Princeton University who knew Einstein. He would tell me that I reminded him of Albert. I was totally surprised for I certainly did not put myself in his category. I asked how was that possible? He explained to me that it was not the subject matter, but I was always curious and wanted to understand how things worked and why.

It was that CURIOSITY that drove me to put together the world monetary system from coins. It was the ONLY way to definitively understand HOW empires, nations, and city-states rose and fell. The daunting question was always: HOW did Rome fall? Was it like a gradual decline as a 747 plane coming in a for a landing or was it abrupt appearing like a crash out of nowhere?

When I gathered the coins and mapped out both the money supply by studying the dies and the metal content, then and only then was it possible to answer that question. That was the CURIOSITY that reminded the professor of Einstein. It is the pursuit of knowledge that is our purpose in life. It is all we leave behind to prove we even existed. The greatest obstacles to advancing human society are bias, prejudice, and self-interest.

The key to everything is CURIOSITY. If we do not try to figure out how everything works without ASSUMING we know everything so why bother, we just may learn something. Therein lies the seeds to the advancement of human society. Here is a passage from the Last Lion by William Manchester. It really explains what a true genius is. We wrongly assume that such a person just knows everything like an encyclopedia. The true genius is someone who challenges the prevailing school of thought and asks WHY?

This is what Manchester wrote on the subject about genius and Winston Churchill. It is something that is important and we should keep this in mind with our children.

“Samuel Butler defined genius as “a supreme capacity for getting its possessors into trouble of all kinds,” and it is ironic that geniuses are likeliest to be misunderstood in classrooms. Studies at the University of Chicago and the University of Minnesota have found that teachers smile on children with high IQs and frown upon those with creative minds. Intelligent but uncreative students accept conformity, never rebel, and complete their assignments with dispatch and to perfection. The creative child, on the other hand, is manipulative, imaginative, and intuitive. He is likely to harass the teacher. He is regarded as wild, naughty, silly, undependable, lacking in seriousness or even promise. His behavior is distracting; he doesn’t seem to be trying; he gives unique answers to banal questions, touching off laughter among the other children. E. Paul Tor-rance of Minnesota found that 70 percent of pupils rated high in creativ¬ity were rejected by teachers picking a special class for the intellectually gifted. The Goertzels concluded that a Stanford study of genius, under which teachers selected bright children, would have excluded Churchill, Edison, Picasso, and Mark Twain.”

id/pages 158-159

This is also why A students work for C students, and B students work for the government. Critical thinking is the key to everything and it is CURIOSITY that drives the advancement of society. Sadly, the number of people who question their immediate surroundings takes place in less than 10% of the population. People who often write asking what if everyone followed Socrates, the answer is rather simple – that would never happen. It is like saying what if 100% of the people voted for Democrat/Labor or Republican/Conservative?

It is CURIOSITY that is the key to everything