Tag Archives: Illinois credit now “Junk”

Oct 3 2017

The 2017 Year End Report Coming December 1st


Armstrong Economics Blog/Products and Services

Re-Posted Oct 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The 2017 Year End Report is going to really be important as we enter the beginning phase of the Monetary Crisis Cycle in 2018 combined with the Pension Crisis, which is the next domino to start the process of the Sovereign Debt Defaults to come. Keep in mind that a system collapses from from the core, but from the peripheral economies inward.

If you simply read Herbert Hoover’s memoirs for 1931, you will see how the Great Depression began as a contagion in Austria and the spread like the flu infecting all the economies until it led to a worldwide Great Depression. It was just two years later in 1933 that the economic contagion produce widespread political change. It was 1933 when Adolf Hitler came to power, Mao in China, and Roosevelt in the USA. It is never a particular political philosophy that wins, it has historically been a shift to whatever is the opposite of the current system.

This year’s 2017 Report will be very important. This will provide the signals on a global scale that will allow us to see the trend globally and the contagion that is preparing to infect the world economy unbeknownst to the political elite.

This Year’s Report will be included for the Orlando attendees of the WEC.

This Year’s Report will be $300

It will be Available December 1st, 2017

Oct 3 2017

Will China take over US as the top Superpower


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Oct 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I read a credible theory recently about China taking over US as the top superpower via economic pressures. Namely by replacing the US dollar with the Yuan as the standard currency for international trade. This shift is (supposedly) being enacted through 1) increased control over Developing countries through international lending from the New Development Bank, 2) increasing control over global oil via financial ties to Saudi Aramco and Russia’s Rosneft, 3) trying to denominate global oil transactions in Yuan through the Shanghai oil futures market & backing up the Yuan value with the massive gold reserves China has been accumulating.

My question is whether you see this strategy unfolding as a credible threat to usurping United States’ global domination by China and if so – what might the investment world look like during such a massive upheaval?
Thanks – love your blogs & insights!!

WM

ANSWER: China is on the rise and it will become the financial capital of the world after 2032. However, it has a long way to go. China can price every commodity in yuan and demand all trade deals are in yuan. That still will not displace the dollar. The center core issue behind the dollar ironically in the US National Debt. For now, this is the place institutions can park their money. You can trade in any currency, but where do you park you profits?

China will displace the USA as the financial capital of the world when (1) people begin to trust China as a place to park money. Bitcoin exploded because the Chinese were using it to get money out of China, which had reach 98% of trading. China has been steeping in against BitCoin to stop the capital outflow.

It’s the capital flows that are the key – not trade. The daily trading volume in FOREX alone has exceeded $5 trillion. Most investors are familiar with the stock market, yet they are unaware how small in volume share trading is compared to foreign exchange. The Forex market dwarfs the trading in equities and futures markets.

FOREX trade and investment capital flows DWARF trade flows. Absolutely nothing compares to the Foreign Exchange Markets.

Anyone can write a contract in dollars. You cannot do that in Japanese yen. If you issue a bond in yen you have to apply for permission back in Tokyo. All these argument are made up by the dollar-haters who are so desperate to find an excuse that the dollar will crash. It’s time will come. Just not yet.

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Oct 3 2017

Italy’s Experience With Pre-Pay VAT Was Devastating


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

Re-Posted Oct 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Re:  Germany To Tax VAT Just Billing People Before they Pay

Please note in Italy we had the same = pay VAT to the government before collecting it from client for decades, until a couple of years ago (approx), when Italian government changed the rules (first you collect VAT from clients, then you send VAT to the Government).
They changed rules because Italian companies had a collapse (in sales, payments, orders,… nearly almost 50% were bankrupt) and nonetheless they have to pay the VAT to the Government  before to collect it from customers, and they were using cash or credit resources or even open bank loans to pay VAT (not yet cashed from customers). The largest and the smallest companies were in serious trouble; a lot of them forced to close or to go bankrupt.
Then this change in law just to give some …relief …to the remaining economic structure…
Thanks for your attention and for sharing with us your knowledge.
All the best
D

REPLY: Yes I am aware of the change in Italy. You are correct. This will stop companies from contracting installment payments and it will complete alter how you enter into employment contracts. Politicians are just incapable of understanding how the real world works which is self-evident from how they pass laws like this.

This will seriously hurt the German economy and further add to the deflation and economic decline ahead.

Oct 2 2017

Diversification – Smart or Dumb?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Oct 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

WorldIntRates-2012

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Do you believe in portfolio diversification?

ANSWER: No not really. I see no point in putting money in something you know will be a loss. Diversification within a sector is one thing. But buying government bonds when rates are at a 5,000 year low and governments are in trouble around the world, I just see as really stupid.

Once you understand how our global model works, you can see the trend unfolding in a numerous instruments that therefore confirms the trading direction. For example, we warned that gold had made an important high and would crash from 2011 for at least 3 years minimum. At the same time, we warned that the Dow would breakout to new highs. Barrons reported that forecast and did not believe that we would be correct. Both the high in gold and the breakout in the Dow were connected. Each confirmed the other among a host of other relationships.

What is impossible is trying to forecast just gold or the Dow in isolation relying upon fundamentals, which always prove to be worthless. Take the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis of 1998. The problem began in Russia and investments there collapsed but you could not get out at any price. They began selling assets everywhere else in the USA to Japan. This became a liquidity crisis that spread into a contagion. You could look at all of the fundamentals that said nothing should be happening in Japan. That led to massive losses in Japan that were contrary to fundamental analysis.

Everything is interconnected. Diversification is for people who cannot forecast so they just hope to stay ahead of the game. Asset Allocation has to be done smartly. You need some cash and those who will want some bonds v equities simply need to stay short-term and away from issues that will be a problem.

Oct 2 2017

Cryptocurrencies


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong Economics 101

Re-Posted Oct 2, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, do you think any crypto currency will survive?

ANSWER: No. We are looking at central banks and even the Chinese government is moving to create a Cryptocurrencies. There is no question that we will be looking at this is the next evolutionary step forward.

However, what I have been warning about is the public v private issue. Governments are hunting money everywhere. There is just NO POSSIBLE WAY they will allow private Cryptocurrencies  to circumvent their control and taxation.

Oct 1 2017

Taxing Income Before Your Earn It


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

RE-Posted Oct 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello Martin;

I trust you and the state of Florida are healthy, hurricane or not.

As to the German VAT pre-pay system, Ontario, Canada tax laws shocked me nearly 30 years ago with income tax on accounts receivable, whether collected or not.

I was 22 years old when the accountant came to review my 1st year as a proprietor. He stated that even though one of my customers had not paid his account I was to pay income tax on that amount. But the amount owing to me was nearly 20% of my annual sales! He told me if I did not receive the customers payment I could write that off next year. I said if that guy doesn’t pay there won’t be a next year.

So of course I changed my gross sales. The bastards force people to break the law.

Get used to it Germany, the gopher-ment just keep digging.

Thank you sir, this is the best education for $14.99/month. ($18.56 CAD);

RH

REPLY: Yes. This is exactly as Adam Smith wrote. Government is always the crazy spendthrift and spend money before they get it so they try to treat the people the same way. In the USA, if you make $100,000 trading and pay the tax and then lose the $100,000 the following year, you cannot write off the whole loss. Government and taxes are just unrealistic because of their greed.

Sep 30 2017

2015.75 was Just the Beginning


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Sep 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong

I have not forgotten when I saw the reportage about you on TV when you announced that in October 2015 will start the big economic collapse. do you think that that date was bit early or really there is some thing happened?

Thank you very much Mr Martin.

I’m one of your fans.
Have a nice day.
I hope to read you soon.

ANSWER: No, October 2015 was spot on. What you have to understand is this is really a complete process. That is the day Russia invaded Syria and that I said would mean that Syria would become a key focal point. Ever since we have the Refugee Crisis that has turned Europe decisively lower and changed politics – i.e. BREXIT, Barcelona, Poland, Hungary, Sweden, Netherlands all the way to Merkel and the immediate election where she has been significantly weakened.

Trump Sworn In

Then do not forget we had Trump elected, which our computer also forecast. That turning point also marked the change in trend in interest rates. The Fed raised rates for the first time after that target in 2015.

We are looking at an economic crash – not a market crash. As government implodes with the Pension Crisis, capital shifts from public assets to private. This is a process that is not instantaneous, it is an ongoing event that will worsen now into 2020 and it will not end until this Private Wave peaks in 2032.

Sep 29 2017

Britain to be Subordinate to European High Court Even After 2019


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Sep 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Prime Minister Teresa May has walked into a hornet’s nest. By trying to drag out BREXIT into 2021 or beyond, the European Parliament has responded that it is set to demand that Britain will have to still be subject to all EU regulations and be subordinate to the European Court. That means trading in London will be seriously harmed by the anti-short selling policies of the EU and the ban on selling government bonds short.

Sep 29 2017

BREXIT – Trump – Now Barcelona


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Sep 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am the who did not believe you when you came to Barcelona and said that there would be a separatist movement. The polls at that time showed only a 15% support. I still read and followed you I suppose to see if you would be wrong. I must say, your computer has shown us that the world is predictable even in politics. It got Brexit, Trump and Barcelona all correct. I suppose we will see the break up of the EU and as you said eventually the USA. Is your computer proving that the future can be determined because humans respond to the same economic conditions?

PQ

ANSWER: Yes. I find it interesting that there were a number of people who doubted that Catalonia would rise up. Everyone I did an interview with was also skeptical. The issue has been that governments are always the same. They will pursue their own self-interest no matter what. The saying POWER CORRUPTS but ABSOLUTE POWER CORRUPTS ABSOLUTELY is proven every day that passes into history. I agree with Thrasymachus, political governments are always the same in the end.

Keep in mind that there is a huge separation between those who work in departments of governments such a central banks and sovereign wealth funds. They are typically on the opposite side of the table from the politicians. When I talk about government and its self-interest, I am referring to the political side and that far too often includes the prosecution and court systems. It has been the political side that constantly changes laws to try to manipulate society and the central banks.

Sep 28 2017

The Pension Crisis Coming to a Boil


Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Sep 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The BBC has come out and reported that three million savers in Britain in what is known as final-salary pension schemes only have a 50/50 chance of receiving the payouts they were promised, a study has concluded. We issued a special report on the rising Pension Crisis and it has been unfolding on schedule. The odds of those in government receiving what they were promised is probably less than 50/50 worldwide with few exceptions.

This year’s WEC we will look at how to survive this crisis now that the Year from Political Hell is coming to an eventful end as Spain sends in 16,500 troops to invade Barcelona and subjugate Catalonia proving that it is still a fascist state. The last on the list will be the Italian election and the way Germany has gone, expect more of the same.

We will address this issue in a special report for many people asking how to survive this crisis when what you thought your future would be comes crashing down. This is the crisis we face in Democracy. Government will become more Draconian as we see in Spain to retain power. To hell with human rights or even what is moral. Government will only act in its own self-interest.

Categories: Pension Crisis