Nothing Can be Reduced to a Single Cause & Effect be it Markets or Nature


QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

Thanks for the Socrates forecast.

Just a question. What will possibly happen to existing Tropic Belt countries like my region South East Asia when the world is turning into global cooling? Any forecast?

Regards,

SS

ANSWER: I am awaiting their data to run it through and see what comes out. This is what I mean about opinion. How can anyone forecast something without the data? What we do know is also that the Jet Stream moves up and down, so it would make sense that the Tropic Belt would also do the same. The Jet Stream has been dipping as well and creating a very diverse curve pattern. So this produced the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record last year. This is also why you have people who want to claim it is irrelevant if people die of cold in Wales. They argue that since it is warm where they are in Canada, it must prove that Global Warming is real. They are not the brightest bulb in the box.

Then we have the Pacific Jet Stream. These people who always try to reduce any effect to a single cause should be barred from any research EVER!!! If you want to understand how interconnected our planet is then you also need to look at and study El Niño. The interconnectivity is similar to all the world financial markets, which create a level of complexity beyond most human’s ability to rationalize. Both the weather system and the financial system function on an extremely high level of complexity. The patterns and events in one place can affect life on the other side of the planet in both systems.

Hence, one person will argue it is Global Warming because they happen to be in a hot spot and others are dying in blizzard conditions. I moved to the Tampa area where hopefully the Jet Stream does not bring ice on my windshield. Nevertheless, it has been unseasonably cold here as well and it has even dipped into the 30s at night as far south as Miami.

Then we have the real simple minded people who actually believe we would drown if all the ice melted in the Arctic. They have completely forgotten about EVAPORATION. If the ice melted, that water would mix with the Atlantic and Pacific, causing them to become colder. But then the Arctic would be able to evaporate. This is how Ice Ages take place for a very long time because the water returns as snow and that is how the glaciers build.

There have been at least five major ice ages in the Earth’s history (the Huronian, Cryogenian, Andean-Saharan, Karoo Ice Age, and the current Quaternary Ice Age). Aside from these ages, the Earth seems to have been ice-free even in high latitudes. This is a historical fact that the Global Warming people ignore. Based upon the data we have gathered, there appears to be a cycle of 430 million years. This agrees with the 8.6-year frequency. The last Ice Age was the Quaternary glaciation, which was actually a series of glacial events separated by interglacial events. This began 2.58 million years ago, so at least according to our models, we have plenty of spare time left in this cycle. However, the ice caps today that the Global Warming people are screaming about are the remnants of that period. There is a bottom to the Arctic ice cap. The Antarctic ice sheet actually began to form earlier (about 34 million years ago) in the mid-Cenozoic to late Cenozoic Ice Age period. That means there have been periods that existed without ANY ice caps. We cannot blame even Egyptians for climate change since civilization did not exist back in those days.

This is my problem with the whole Global Warming nonsense being attributed to humans. I would agree if they could show me evidence that such a condition NEVER existed previously before the Industrial Revolution. To me, this is just a cycle and we should respect that the planet if a far more complex system than these idiots put out. NOTHING can ever be reduced to a single cause and effect.

 

Climate Change & Commodities


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When there is a food shortage, they will be the first to advocate taking food from those who did prepare. Did wheat rise in value during the Dust Bowl because of the decline in supply? They don’t have wheat charts that go back that far on ____ system.

WP

ANSWER: You cannot forecast the future of anything in isolation. I only look at the cycles. The computer correlates absolutely everything including the weather. The correlation models show that we are heading into a colder period. This is when crops fail and the ground freezes as far down as two feet, which makes winter crops impossible. We are also heading into a solar minimum and that is when there are far more volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. All I can say is that it appears that when the ECM turns, the next wave will be back to an inflationary run and we should also see a rise in commodity prices. We have two major trends behind that: 1) weather, and 2) fiscal mismanagement resulting in currency value changes.

The Dust Bowl Rally in wheat was about 245% advance 420 to 1452. What also came into play, interestingly enough, was the devaluation of the dollar in 1934 from $20.67 for one ounce of gold to $35. That was effectively a near 70% devaluation of the dollar. We are approaching our Monetary Crisis Cycle, which will again mark the decline in purchasing power of world currencies. Just maybe we will see a very similar convergence of trends that took place during the Dust Bowl era.

When will Niagara Falls Completely Freeze?


It has been a bitterly cold season. Niagara Falls became a winter wonderland as frigid temperatures cause the falls to turn to ice. This is not so rare as people claim. In this 1911 photo of the Great Freeze, you can still see water flowing, but minimal and nowhere near the normal volume flow (hundreds of thousands of gallons per second) that we see in summer. Niagara Falls was a famous tourist spot. I remember as a child my parents traveling there to see the splendor. It use to be a big honeymooners’ destination before air travel. Historically, Niagara Falls does “freeze” but it is extremely rare to “completely” freeze.

The Falls have a lot of ice on them today during this bitterly cold winter. But they have not reach the historic cold period at the beginning of the 20th century. Still, cyclically speaking, it is right on time. The cold we have witnessed so far is ideally going to peak probably around 2023. Perhaps at that point in time we will see the falls also almost freeze completely. The only recorded incident of the Niagara Falls completely freezing so NO WATER flowed appeared to be 1848. That was the only documented incident on record when Niagara Falls was frozen completely during March of 1848. It was the Buffalo Express Newspaper that reported the shocking complete freeze was caused by ice damming at the mouth of Lake Erie. Our model indicates that if we see colder temperature BEYOND2023, then cyclically the peak will unfold in 2037.

 

The Clash Between Normal People & The Global Warming Crowd – Green Extremist Overlords


There is an undertone lurking behind the rise of Donald Trump in the US, the Brexiteers in the UK, Marine Le Pen in France, political re-alignments in Denmark, and the election of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. Additionally, there is the change in governments in Mexico, Malaysia, and the civil unrest in Romania. They are all joined by the sudden rise of the “Yellow Vests” in Paris, who are spreading internationally. The combination of these events show that an increasing number of people are fed up with who many call the “Green Overlords.” They have been out to reduce population and the living standard of the average person. There is a general rise in civil unrest, which is driven by decades of raising taxes on the tax payers and destroying the retirement of people who worked their entire lives. The middle class has been battered by the Green movements who are sheltered, enjoying the air conditioned and heated offices of the UN and Greenpeace.

These Green elites have become known as the “Green Overlords” and have been supported by people like Al Gore, the Clintons, Obamas, corporate media pretending to be the free press, and of course Hollywood. In Europe, they have imposed taxes per head on cows and a 2020 deadline to move to electric cars. Their European champions have been Merkel in Germany; Prince Charles, former PM David Cameron, the BBC in Britain, and Macron in France. In Canada, Trudeau imposed a $1,000 global warming tax per home/apartment. Many have seen being Green as a justification for more tax revenue.

This group of Green Overlords has created a powerful global network to wage an endless war on the on the combustion engine as well as coal and nuclear power. They are reversing the basic, cheap, reliable electricity that the entire world has relied upon. They have attacked farmers and fishermen in a real effort to reduce the food supply in hopes of reducing population growth. They take their theory from mice who are known to have fewer offspring when the food supply declines. They have waged a war to tax the diesel vehicles. All of this has reduced jobs, and then politicians believe that allowing the importation of “refugees” will increase the tax rolls. They have waged a war and conquered schools and universities to instill their propaganda in the minds of the younger generation. They even created environmental degrees for jobs that do not exist. Their global warming dogma has taken over the government, the media, and education to push their agenda. The rise of the Yellow Vests is clearly a direct confrontation against this Green agenda.

Life Threatening Winter Storms


Parts of Canada could become the coldest spot on the planet with a winter storm coming with crazy frigid temperatures with wind chill factors in the -40oC level for some. This going to be really dangerous. Quite frankly, the human body was NOT designed to handle conditions like that. This is really very dangerous cold and not hype. Your eyes can actually freeze. Anyone who has ever been in real cold will notice that in cold weather notes your eyes will tear up, which is your body’s natural defense trying to reduce the freezing point. You better start regularly blinking your eyes to prevent them from freezing and going blind.

While your eyes can’t freeze solid, your extremities can. That includes feet, fingers, and toes. They can actually freeze to the point that the can even fall off your body, or else needing to be amputated. The human body is designed to maintain a core temperature of 98.6oF (37oC) exactly! Any deviation from that causes serious problems. When the body temperature begins to drop, that’s when hypothermia sets in. The statistics in Canada show that more than 80 people die from extreme cold, according to Environment Canada. 

People who have died from hypothermia seem to lose brain function and become completely confused. They begin taking off their clothes in their final death throes apparently assuming they are hot rather than cold.

If the migration of the North Pole is contributing to this extremely cold weather nobody really knows. We are definitely moving into Solar Minimum. Our greatest risk at this stage in the game is major volcanic eruptions that throw such much debris into the atmosphere we end up with a volcanic winter

Global Warming is All About PRESSURE


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Isn’t Venus much hotter because its atmosphere is almost 100% CO2?

GH

ANSWER: No. The atmosphere of Venus is extremely dense. At the surface it is over 800 degrees, this is true. However, the pressure at the surface is the same as if you were 3000 feet under water. It is the density of the atmosphere that creates the heat, not even the fact that it is closer to the sun. Additionally, the nights are about the same temperature as the days because there is almost no tilt to the planet as we have, which creates the seasons. Venus is actually hotter than Mercury which is the closest planet to the sun. Mercury varies between  -279 Fahrenheit (-173 Celsius) at night to 801 Fahrenheit during the day. Mercury lacks the atmosphere that helps to cloak a planet, keeping heat from leaking into space. Without an atmosphere, Mercury loses a great deal of heat into space, rather than sharing with its night side. This is why its temperature varies more than any other planet in our system.

A simple example of pressure is the difference between a diesel and a gas engine. The diesel engine functions by compressing the gas so it ignites without the need for a spark plug that is necessary for a gasoline engine. It is PRESSURE that creates the heat. That is basic physics. Take plastic bubble wrap. To burst a bubble you apply PRESSURE. The bubble wrap will pop regardless of the gas inside be it oxygen or CO2. The greater the pressure, the hotter it will be at the surface.

Magnetic Poles Are Moving Rapidly as Never Before – Precursor to a Pole Shift?


The magnetic poles on the Sun flip about every 11 years. Since nobody lives there, we really have no idea what the effects would be. On Earth, the major pole shifts that are permanent tend to be in the 720,000 years range. So once again, there was nobody around to record what really happens. I have previously warned that the North Magnetic Pole was moving away from Canada and headed in the opposite direction toward Europe.

For most of the 1900s, the physical North Pole was moving westwards around 10 cm each year towards Canada’s Hudson Bay. Then all of a sudden, in 2000, it changed direction moving 75 degrees eastwards and began moving east at a rate of around 17 cm annually. Nobody has ever witnessed such a change. This is completely unprecedented! Now the North Magnetic Pole is moving rapidly and erratically. Today it is now moving at a pace of 55km PER YEAR!!!!! This is creating a real crisis because the entire world GPS system was based upon a fairly stationary locate for the North Pole.

The North Pole was previously in Hudson Bay about 54,000 until 48,000 years ago at 60 N and 83 W. Perhaps it is like lightning and just never strikes twice in the same spot. Now it is instead moving toward the British Isles according to NASA. Magnetic poles are defined in different ways but are commonly understood as positions on the Earth’s surface where the geomagnetic field is vertical. These north and south positions, called dip poles, do not need to be opposite of each other. In 1831, James Clark Ross located the north dip pole position in northern Canada. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) tracked the North Magnetic Pole, which is slowly drifting across the Canadian Arctic, by periodically carrying out magnetic surveys to reestablish the Pole’s location from 1948 to 1994. An international collaboration, led by a French fundraising association, Poly-Arctique, and involving NRCan, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, and Bureau de Recherche Geologique et Miniere, added two locations of the North Magnetic Pole in 2001 and 2007. The most recent survey determined that the Pole is moving approximately north-northwest at 55 km per year.

First of all, there are two types of pole shifts. While the MAJOR pole shifts appear to be 720,000-year cycles, there are also what are known as excursions. The last “excursion” took place around 41,000 years ago and it was also associated with an Ice Age. This excursion was, in fact, a Global Event from all the data and these tend to be just short-term flips that are not permanent. Factoring in that data with the broader more permanent reversals warns that we are potentially in line for such a major event and it may, in fact, line up with the Economic Confidence Model come 2032. This could be an explanation for the extremely cold winters since 2015.

A pole shift can be far more rapid than previously anticipated. I believe that people prefer to assume uniformity rather than a catastrophe. A stalagmite-based paleomagnetic record of the post-Blake excursion reveals details of repeated polarity drifts have occurred during periods of low geomagnetic field intensity at 100 thousand years before present. One surprisingly abrupt centennial reversal transition occurred in 144,000 provides unprecedented evidence that raises fundamental questions about the speed of geomagnetic field shifts. Such rapid polarity changes could severely affect satellites and human society in the future if the current geomagnetic field intensity continues to decrease. This sudden rapid movement of 55km a year may be a warning of such a pending shift becoming imminent.

We know that 120,000 years ago the North Pole was in the territory of Yukon in Canada at 63 N and 135 W; then it went to the Greenland Sea at 72 N and 10 E about 84,000 years ago, moved from 54,000 until 48,000 years ago and settle in the middle of Hudson Bay at 60 N and 83 W; it rested there for 30,000 years, then wandered once again from about 18,000 to about 12,000 years ago when it came to its present location. However, there are actually four poles, which most people are never taught in school. Former NASA engineer Maurice Chatelain (1988) argued that during the Hudson Bay period (48,000 to 18,000 years ago) the equator was in fact 30 degrees further south in South America. It most likely passed through central Chile and Argentina. Antarctica was most likely free of all ice. That could explain the existence of the map of Antartica without ice that has been found.

This rapid movement is striking alarm bells everywhere from a navigational perspective. During the past 150 years, the pole shift has been in the same direction. The most astonishing fact is that since 2000, the magnetic North Pole has shifted nearly half of the total distance of the past 50 years! In other words, the pole shift has apparently picked up speed so much so that they have had to re-calibrate airports and their GPS signals so planes can still find them. This rapid movement of 55km a year can really alter transportation.

But the directional change is even more alarming for Europe. The summer in Europe barely saw many real scorching hot days but the winters are getting colder. In 2012, even the waterways in Venice were icing over. Germany relies upon its canal system to move goods and agriculture. In 2012, the canals froze. The canals in the Netherlands were not freezing during the winter during the global warming period. That changed in 2009. Hamburg was frozen to the bone in 2010.

They are calling 2017 the Year without an Arctic Summer.  The Greenland Ice Sheet gained near-record amounts of ice. Very little melting has occurred this summer. The Canadian Coast Guard reported that the Atlantic Ice in Canada was increasing in the winter of 2018. The extreme cold temperatures and the high winds have been combining to expand the Arctic ice this season. There is a natural cycle to this and they have reported that the seasonal “freeze up” is occurring three to four weeks ahead of normal and above the 30-year average. This winter is once again extremely cold. It has only been in the 60/70s here in Tampa and the same is true in Abu Dhabi. If next year 2019/2020 is colder still, this will be the fourth year and at then we would decline at a bare minimum very steeply into 2021/2022, where our models on markets are predicting a shocking event.

The migration of the magnetic poles could be a major factor in creating these cold winters. If the former NASA engineer Maurice Chatelain is correct that the equator was in fact 30 degrees further south in South America between 48,000 and 13,000 years ago passing through central Chile and Argentina with Antarctica being ice-free, then I guess I was wrong and did not move far enough south.

We do know that the Sahara Desert was once lush, tropical, and full of animals 6,000 years ago. There is debated over the true origin of the Sphinx in Egypt. Many consider that it pre-dates the Egyptian culture dating as far back as 10,000BC when a Lion would have faced the constellation, Leo. If Chatelain is correct, then perhaps the movement in the pole also altered the climate dramatically sending the equator 30 degrees lower. It is not likely that we will all just die because of such a pole shift. There are no mass distinctions that have been discovered less than 50,000 years ago. Perhaps the dinosaurs were the victims of a pole shift that caused a volcanic winter or there was an asteroid that hit the Earth according to abundant geological evidence that was about 10 km (6 miles) in diameter and struck the Earth about 65 million years ago. This probably killed roughly 3/4 of all the species that existed at that time. So barring a strike by an asteroid, a pole shift does not appear to create a mass extinction.

Comets as Omens & Star of Bethlehem


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; The ancients seem to have attributed the appearance of a comet to important events like the death of Julius Caesar and the birth of Christ. Did the Romans record comets on their coinage and omens of the future? Was either the famous Haley’s Comet? Some say the Start of Bethlehem was Haley’s Comet.

Thank you and have a Merry Christmas

PD

ANSWER: Yes. The appearance of a comet at the time of Caesar’s death promoted his divinity for political purposes. His nephew Octavian, later to be given the name Augustus by the Senate (27BC-14AD), issued coins with the comet that appeared at the time of Caesar’s death with the legend: DIVVS IVLIVS (Divine Julius). This was self-serving and used as justification of his rule as the first Emperor of Rome beginning the Imperial Era.

Halley’s Comey has been recorded as early as 467BC by the Greeks. The Chinese chroniclers also mention a comet during this year. However, the Chinese astronomer Shiji also recorded its appearance in 240BC. The Babylonians recorded its appearance in of 164BC in two clay tablets in the British Museum. Again, the Babylonians recorded its appearance once more in 87BC. It was this appearance that lasted for about one month was celebrated on the coinage of Tigranes the Great, an Armenian king who is depicted on coins with a crown and a curved tail. It was portrayed as ushering in a New Era of the brilliant King of Kings. Tigranes II the Great issued the earliest coin depicting Haley’s Comet which is represented by the star in his crown.

Haley’s Comet appeared around 12 BC and it was recorded in the Book of Han by Chinese astronomers of the Han Dynasty. They tracked it from August through October during 12BC. According to the Roman historian Cassius Dio, a comet appeared almost suspended over Rome for several days at the time of the death of Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa who was Augustus’ close friend. He issued a coin depicting Agrippa with a comet about his head.

There has been considerable debate about whether Halley’s Comet was also the Star of Bethlehem. The appearance in 12 BC, is not that distant from the conventionally assigned date of the birth of Jesus Christ which has a range of 6AD to 4AD. This is based mostly on the biblical story of Herod the Great. Not long before Herod’s death, which is generally attributed to have occurred in 4BC but even that is in dispute.

Referencing the Haley Comet connection, some theologians and astronomers have also to suggested that this might explain the biblical story of the Star of Bethlehem and provide a more documented confirmation of his birth coinciding with the time of the death of Agrippa. However, there are also records of other comets that appeared closer to the date of Jesus’ birth.  In a 1991 article in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, astronomer Colin Humphreys proposed that the fabled star was actually a slow-moving comet, which Chinese observers recorded in 5 BC.

Then there is a third theory put forth in 2008 by the astronomer Dave Reneke who argued that Jesus was born in the summer. The Star of Bethlehem, Reneke argued that the Star of Bethlehem may actually have been not a comet at all by Venus and Jupiter coming together to form a bright light in the sky. He used computer models to determine that this extremely rare event occurred on June 17, in the year 2 BC and would have appeared as a bright star for that one moment. Others have argued that a very similar conjunction took place between Saturn and Jupiter during October of 7 BC. Then we have others who disagree and say that Jesus must have been born during the spring, based on the biblical narrative that shepherds were watching over their flocks in the fields. That, they argue, takes place during the Spring and not winter.

The Jewish historian Josephus tells us:

“So Herod, having survived the slaughter of his son [Antipater] five days, died, having reigned thirty-four years, since he had caused Antigonus to be slain, and obtained his kingdom; but thirty-seven years since he had been made king by the Romans.” [War of the Jews, 1:33:8 (665); cf. Antiquities of the Jews 17:8:1 (191)]

Therefore, Josephus is providing key target dates for Herod’s death correlating three events:

Five days after the execution of his son Antipater.
Thirty-four years after he “obtained his kingdom” referring to his conquest of Jerusalem
Thirty-seven years after “he had been made king by the Romans.”

Now, for more than 100 years, the question of when Herod the Great died has been dominated by a proposal by the German academic Emil Schurer. It was Schurer who argued that Herod died in 4 BC, and this view has remained the accepted date in scholarly circles. Therefore, if we look at Josephus, it would make more sense that Herod died in 1 BC based on the amount of time he served after being appointed king by the Romans. There was also a lunar eclipse that occurred before Passover in 1BC. We can even focus in more specifically, for Herod the Great would have died between January 10, 1 B.C. (the date of the lunar eclipse) and April 11, 1 B.C. (the date of Passover). If we take Josephus’ clue of the conquest of Jerusalem, then we would arrive at either 2BC or 1 BC based on the amount of time he served after his conquest.  I would not assume it likely that Haley’s Comet appeared for the birth of Christ.

As I have stated, December 25th was the fest of Sol which was transformed into Christmas. What we do know is that the oldest existing record of a Christmas celebration is found in a Roman almanac that tells of a Christ’s Nativity festival led by the church of Rome dating back in 336 AD.

Child of Krakatau kills Hundreds in Indonesia


Anak Krakatau volcano (Child of Krakatau) erupted on Saturday causing a landslide which set off a tsunami that left at least 222 people dead. The search continues. Not much can withstand a tsunami. The activity in this region is what changed the climate and caused the year without a summer in 1816. Once again, volcanic activity increases with solar minimum on a simple correlation grid. The way you do research is to follow the breadcrumbs. You never start with a theory and they try to prove that is correct. You will never discover the answer in that fashion.

Naples & the Supervolcano


There are a number of Supervolcanoes around the world and perhaps the most recent one to erupt was in Italy. The term Supervolcano has been popularized by the BBC and the Discovery Channel story on Yellowstone back in 2005. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a supervolcano is any volcanic center that has explosively erupted at least 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of fresh volcanic material in a sudden, violent manner – in a so-called supereruption – often producing a huge depression crater named a caldera. Currently, Italy’s Campi Flegrei volcano has been showing signs for the first time in nearly 400 years that it is still alive and well and capable of making a lot of people experience a very bad day.

Aside from Yellowstone, the largest volcanic eruption in the Northern hemisphere in the past 100,000 years, has been attributed to a Supervolcano which erupted some 39,400 years ago in what is known as the Phlegraean Fields by Naples, Italy. This has been documented from several sources. The ashes from this eruption were distributed over the entire eastern Mediterranean and up to central Russia. This was a huge event that clearly also produced a Volcanic Winter, and that is what is the worst thing for the rest of the world who resides at a safe distance from the actual Supervolcano.

We are beginning to witness a rise in volcanic activity as we enter solar minimum. Hopefully, we are not facing a catastrophic volcanic winter period. But it also does raise some concern about a pole shift can be far more rapid than previously anticipated. I believe that people prefer to assume uniformity rather than a catastrophe. A stalagmite-based paleomagnetic record of the post-Blake excursion reveals details of repeated polarity drifts have occurred during periods of low geomagnetic field intensity at 100 thousand years before present around the time of this Naples eruption. One surprisingly abrupt centennial reversal transition occurred in 144,000 provides unprecedented evidence that raises fundamental questions about the speed of geomagnetic field shifts. Such rapid polarity changes could severely affect satellites and human society in the future if the current geomagnetic field intensity continues to decrease.

We have a pole shift, climate change, and volcanic eruptions seem to be interlinked on a correlated basis. Our correlation models have warned that this is something that needs to be investigated. For the first time, laying out this record produces what appears to be a single geological archive creating a precise chronological order. These types of events can take place in the space of even just a single decade.

The recent events at the Campi Flegrei volcano have, for the first time in nearly 400 years, provided a warning sign. The ground at the center of the caldera has bulged up by 4 meters warning that lava is collecting once again. This uplifting curiously began in 1985 with this ECM wave. Keep in mind that the eruptions at the Supervolcanic level took place around 315,000, 205,000, 157,000 and 18,000 years ago. A minor event is still at the level of Vesuvius. So while we no doubt face a major Supervolcanic event, that level may still be off several thousands years into the future. What is emerging now is more likely to be an important event, but not at the Supervolcanic level.