Senate Passes Debt Ceiling on Schedule

Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Jun 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, the Senate passed the Debt Ceiling. It is amazing how Socrates shows there was no debt crisis. As you wrote “When we look at the Array, we do not see a crisis with the debt ceiling.”  I do not know how it does this, but what you have created is truly a gift to humankind.


REPLY: I never expected that linking everything together would predict wars, civil unrest, or financial crises. There is a lot we can learn from Socrates.

Debt Ceiling & War Crisis

Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds Re-Posted May 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

When we look at our Computer’s timing arrays for the 30-year bond, it did show a target last week with a Directional Change. So far the market has held that low and has been consolidating. When we look at the Array, we do not see a crisis with the debt ceiling. However, the next Fed Meeting is July 25-26 and when we look at our Array, we see that is when there is a Panic Cycle.

There is NOBODY in Washington who is ever interested in actually paying off the debt. Even AOC has come out and said there should be no debt ceiling – just print until the cows come home, but that may be a problem when Bill Gates and the WEF want to kill all the cows.

In that regard, we are only making things chaotic. The government should just print the money and not borrow in the first place for they are competing with the private sector which is the ONLY real creator of worthwhile jobs.

Meanwhile, the Neocons are hoping to start a war with massive air drills in Europe going to even Church, which they do not believe in God, and lighting candles just in case he does exist to please make Russia attack. If not, hell, they will just say Russia attacked as they lied and claimed that Vietnam attacked us and Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. War is on the horizon and that is the MOST inflationary influence of all.

Byron Donalds and Chip Roy Are Furious About McCarthy Debt Ceiling Deal – House Freedom Caucus Says “NO”!

Posted originally on the CTH on May 30, 2023 | Sundance 

As details begin to emerge, many of the House Republicans are furious at Kevin McCarthy for the deal to lift the debt ceiling he has brokered with Joe Biden.

Suddenly, the prior battle and construct of the House Rules Committee is becoming important.   While Kevin McCarthy may have the 218 votes on the floor of the House to pass the deal, he first has to get it out of the House Rules Committee (HRC).  If three Republicans oppose it in the HRC, McCarthy cannot get it to the floor.  Chip Roy and Ralph Norman are on the HRC and oppose the bill.   Thomas Massie is also on the HRC but appears to be supporting Kevin McCarthy (lol, because muh principles).

Byron Donalds also delivered a strong rebuke of the McCarthy deal, as outlined below:

WASHINGTON DC – […] The powerful House Rules Committee will spend Tuesday afternoon debating and — ultimately working to pass — the bipartisan debt deal, requiring a simple majority of at least seven votes on the panel to come to the floor. But some conservatives, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a committee member, have signaled they may use their power on that panel to block the debt plan from receiving a full House vote.

“I’m going to do what’s in the best interest and this bill is not in the best interest of the country. That is why Democrats are voting for it,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), another conservative who sits on the Rules panel and has suggested he will oppose the bill during the panel’s meeting.

[…] Under the panel’s current makeup, Rules Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) can lose two GOP votes — along with all four Democratic votes — and still advance the bill.

Senior Republicans believe that’s exactly what’s going to happen, according to three people familiar with the discussions. Norman and Roy haven’t explicitly said they will oppose, though Massie is expected to vote in support of the measure going to the floor.

GOP Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said that he is “confident” that the bill will hit the floor on Wednesday, noting that Rules would be considering amendments. Members submitted more than 55 amendments to the debt deal, most of them from Republicans but some from Democrats as well. (read more)

Rep Dan Bishop: The bill is bad

Sunday Talks, Kevin McCarthy Makes His Case for the Debt Ceiling Bill

Posted originally on the CTH house in May 28, 2023 | Sundance 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appears on Fox News Sunday to defend his deal with Joe Biden for a debt ceiling increase.

In the past 24 hours many fiscal conservatives have criticized McCarthy for the terms of the agreement. In this interview, McCarthy walks through the details of the terms as he constructed them and pushes back against some of the criticism.  WATCH:

As soon as the bill is in written form, we will be able to make a better determination.  At this moment this is all hearsay based on what people think the legislation says.

The Debt Ceiling = Pi $31.4 Trillion

Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted May 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello Martin,
The debt ceiling is pi!! = 31.4 trillion $
Coincidence? 😜
Best regards from Vienna and thanks for what you are doing.

REPLY:  Yes, very interesting. This is no doubt the major turning point on debt and this is on a global scale. It is not the collapse of the debt just yet nor the dollar.

The GOP’s Debt Ceiling Demands

Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Republicans and Democrats are refusing to agree on the debt ceiling crisis. The government will be unable to pay its bills and the US will default if an agreement is not reached. Yellen has reached out to every media outlet and large corporation in the US to warn of the “catastrophic” consequences. Of course, they’ve always managed to increase the limit in the past as America cannot afford to default on its debt obligations. The Democrats insist on spending with no end in sight, while the Republicans are demanding some sort of budget. Biden and McCarthy met on Monday to discuss, but neither side will budge.

Biden said the GOP is taking an “extreme position,” but what are they demanding? The GOP wants to set discretionary federal spending at $1.47 trillion for the next fiscal year, with an increase of only 1% in future years. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said this would reduce the deficit by $4.8 trillion in the next decade.

The promise Biden made to students must be repealed for the Republicans to accept the ceiling. Biden implemented this policy to buy young votes and had no fiscal plan in place to finance such a lofty goal. The GOP believes student loan payments are being unfairly subsidized by millions of American taxpayers, many who already paid off their own student debt. Biden’s plan also does nothing to address continually rising tuition costs. The CBO believes this cut will save taxpayers about $460 billion over the next decade.

Biden’s IRS Army must also be defunded. The GOP wants to rescind the $71 billion that the Biden Administration used to hire 87,000 new IRS agents. We never had a need for so many agents in the past, and it is unlikely that they will shakedown $71 billion from average American families.

The Republicans also want to take back unobligated COVID relief money. Six separate bills were passed between 2020 and 2022 and the government is still shelling out money for a pandemic that has ended. The CBO stated this would save the US $30 billion in spending over the next 10 years.

The climate change agenda is costly. Republicans are demanding that Biden eliminate some of the tax breaks his administration provides to green-friendly companies. They’re negotiating exactly how to position some of the perks for biofuel. In general, the CBO believes this will save the US $570 billion over the next 10 years.

Increasing America’s ability to become energy dependent is crucial. Biden ripped away America’s ability to function without energy exports on his first day in office. The country needs coal, natural gas, and oil to function and energy inflation remains a serious problem. The energy bill, labeled HR1 as it is of top importance, would also boost production of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other minerals.

The Republicans would also like to limit social programs and government handouts. Able-bodied adults under the age of 50, without dependents, must work a minimum of 20 hours a week or they may lose their SNAP and food stamp benefits. Those who are unemployed but on Medicaid and able-bodied will also be required to work a part-time job. The CBO stated 15 million Medicaid recipients would be required to work part-time, and 1.5 million could risk losing federal funding.

Unsurprising since the neocons are on both sides, no one has asked Biden to end the blank checks to Ukraine. America has sent hundreds of millions to Ukraine and is receiving nothing in return. Our own border is overrun and yet we just pledged another $300 million of American taxpayers’ money to secure Ukraine’s border. The funding for this war will create unprecedented inflation and cripple our economy.

Interview: Martin Armstrong on Why the CBDC Will Fail and a Great Depression is About to Begin

Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Posted May 20, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Rumble link Martin Armstrong on Why the CBDC Will Fail and a Great Depression is About to Begin

April Home Prices Reflect Largest Year-Over-Year Drop in Decade, April Prices Drop 1.7%, Decline 23.2% from Prior Year

Posted originally on the CTH on May 18, 2023 | Sundance 

Homeowner equity is being erased. As higher interest rates continue to put pressure on borrowers, the ability of the average person to afford a mortgage diminishes.  Higher mortgage rates lead to downward pressure on residential home values as fewer borrowers can afford higher payments.  Simultaneously, commercial real estate is dropping in value as vacancies continue increasing.

Put both of these issues together and already tenuous banks holding mortgage bonds as assets can become more unstable.

This dynamic creates the continual tremors in the background of an economy already suffering from high inflation and low consumer purchasing of durable goods.

A perfect storm starts to realize.

(Wall Street Journal) – Sales of previously owned homes fell in April from the prior month and prices declined from a year earlier by the most in more than 11 years.

U.S. existing home sales, which make up most of the housing market, fell 3.4% in April from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. April sales fell 23.2% from a year earlier.

The national median existing-home price fell 1.7% in April from a year earlier to $388,800, the biggest year-over-year price decline since January 2012, NAR said. Median prices, which aren’t seasonally adjusted, were down 6% from a record $413,800 in June. Home prices have fallen the most in the western half of the U.S., while prices continue to rise from a year earlier in many eastern markets. (read more) 

Before looking at today’s graph showing median existing home values, remember me saying this in 2021?:

“I said in June, at a macro level home prices had reached their peak (last two weeks of May, first two weeks of June was apex).  Obviously, there are some geographic home value increases still happening as COVID related regional issues and work opportunities are shifting populations.  There is also a lag and ripple effect that takes time to work through the economy.  The macro-apex will not be visible until next year.”

When I said that in 2021, people said I was wrong.   Well, with hindsight now visible within the data as it is reflected, look at the result:

May and June 2021 was the peak of year-over-year percent of change in median home value increases.

So, what was going on?

As CTH outlined in 2022:  If you look closely at the timing (keep in mind the data reporting lag) what you will notice is that financial institutions began a big surge in purchasing hard assets, specifically real estate, as soon as Joe Biden took office (Jan ’21), and the economic policy became evident.   Intangible financial instruments became an immediate risk as the professional financial control groups recognized energy policy would drive inflation (supply side) and devalued money would fuel it (demand side).

As an offset to predictable inflationary policy (the insiders’ game), institutional money (Blackrock, Vanguard, etc) was moved into hard assets with tangible value.

This shift in asset allocation, institutional sales, helped fuel a false surge in home prices and their valuations.  CTH was writing about this in 2021, and sounding alarms as it took place.  25% of all real estate purchases were being made by institutional investors.

We The People got screwed. 

The dynamic was predictable.  The Biden administration economic policy, energy policy and monetary policy, was going to cause massive inflation.  CTH was shouting about it in early 2021 and warning everyone to prepare for waves of price increases that would naturally surface first on high-turn consumable goods, and then embed into longer-term durable goods.

Despite claims to the contrary, this 2021 inflationary explosion had nothing to do with the pandemic or supply chain shortages.  It was entirely self-created by western governmental policy – the collective ‘Build Back Better’ agenda.  You can see now from the background moves within the financial sectors, they too knew the reality and their money shifts reflected that despite their ‘transitory’ pretending they were mitigating their own exposure.

We the People were yet again going to be victims of specifically intended monetary, regulatory, energy and economic policy.

The investment class rulers of the WEF assembly shifted assets to avoid the pain that we would feel.   We “would own nothing and be happy,” and their shifts would position them to own everything and be in control.

Overall govt spending and regulatory controls drove inflation for these past two years.  The ‘demand side’ was blamed, despite the lack of demand. I will be proven right when history is concluded with this.  Interest rates were raised by central banks in an effort to support the policies that are driving ‘supply side’ inflation – not demand side.

Energy policy was/is crushing the consumer by driving up the cost of all goods and services.  To support the overall goal of changing global energy resource and development (a false and controlled global operation), central banks raised interest rates.  Various western economies, including our own, have been pushed deeper into a state of contraction by central banks crushing consumer demand, and eliminating investment via increased borrowing costs.

In short, the goal was/is to lower energy consumption by shrinking the economic activity.  This, according to the BBB plan, was needed at the same time as energy development was reduced.  These economic outcomes are not organic, they are all being controlled by collective western government agreement.

Within this control dynamic, there was always going to be a point where the reaction of the people to their economic reality means the financial control elements need to shift direction.  They will always maximize profit and minimized risk, while knowing what the larger objective remains.

Just like every other durable good, housing demand contracts as prices and costs become unaffordable.  The loss of equity within your home is damaging to your own value or ability to borrow against it.

From the perspective of an institutional asset, that same equity drop is an investment loss.  However, the investment loss is not materialized until the sale of the lower valued asset is completed.  Retaining declining real estate on investment books creates an artificially high appearance of the investment result; unless and until the real estate is sold at a diminished value.

As mortgage rates rise, just as a consumer would pull back from the housing market, so too will institutional investment groups now control the slow dumping of the asset to remove the equity they pumped into it.  Much of the investment housing will be retained as rental housing, with the monthly rents being part of the returns on the investments.    However, as this dynamic unfolds, further investment purchases of houses stop, because the asset overall is declining in value.  This halt of investment activity also worsens a steeper drop in home values.

The Great De-Dollarization Fraud of a Lifetime

Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $ Re-Posted Apr 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty; I was in a board meeting and I just wanted to let you know one guy who is there simply because his family had a stake in the company with zero worldly experience, started ranting about the end of the dollar he probably read on that biased _____________________. I asked this fool, should we then move all our company funds to Russia or China since Brazil is too small of an economy? Should we stop dealing with Americans? He had no response.

Separating a fool from his money seems to be a never-ending fact about humanity.


You are the only sane one out there these days


REPLY: I know what you mean. The people promoting this BRICS nonsense have no understanding of the real world. Institutions cannot park billions in Brazil, China, or Russia. Especially in the face of war. The reason the Euro has failed as a serious reserve currency is that there is NO NATIONAL EURO DEBT! Institutions have to still jockey between the various risks of each country and all the Euro did was transfer the foreign exchange risk to the bond market. Sorry, I just do not see where the dollar is in some state of collapse.

When they came to me to create the Euro, I warned them that there would be no single interest rate without the consolidation of the debt. But Kohl never allowed the German people to vote on joining the Euro, so he would not allow the consolidation of the debt. I was told then that they just had to get the Euro started and they would worry about consolidating the debts later. Of course, that never came. Hence, the volatility in FX simply moved to the debt market. The bottom line – the US dollar is still the ONLY place for major institutions to park money – PERIOD! They are not buying Brazil, China, or Russia.

World Trade as a percent of total world GDP PEAKED in 2008 at 61%. It has been in a bear market that will not bottom before 31.4 years taking us into 2040. The sanctions on Russia have divided the world economy and killed SWIFT but it has also ended globalization. To think that the BRICS can replace the dollar with ZERO capacity for international capital to park in such markets is the delusion of absolute fools. China will surpass the USA, but only after 2032.

So here we go again. This nonsense is leading unsuspecting people to follow the piper to divest of dollars and move into what exactly? Most of this is propagated by the gold bugs who will NEVER listen. They hate the dollar because they think gold will rise then. What kind of a world will exist if their doom and gloom were a reality? You might not have any place to spend your wealth. I own gold NOT as an investment, but because of its neutrality.

There is such a major fraud going on with digital currencies with people reporting that the latest scam is using social media to tell people to transfer all their cash to a digital wallet, and BTW – here is the link! If you believe that one, perhaps you would like to buy the Brooklyn Bridge. NYC has a deficit and they will sell it for all the money in your savings. Wake up!

These people remind me of the famous drawing of a fool and his cat.

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Ramification of Trillions in U.S. Treasury Bonds No Longer Needed as Global Securities

Posted originally on the CTH on April 5, 2023 Sundance

For his opening monologue and first interview tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson outlined the ramification of non-western nations now trading in alternative currencies to the U.S. dollar.   {Direct Rumble Link Here]  As the dollar diminishes in value, and as an outcome of Biden using U.S. treasury bonds as part of the sanction regime against Russia, various non-western nations now perceive holding dollars as exposing themselves to risk.

Carlson is joined by Luke Gromen who accurately notes the dollar as a global trade currency may continue, but foreign nations holding U.S. treasury bonds as an asset will likely start contracting.  The result of U.S. treasury bonds returning after maturity with no repurchase, would be an inability of the U.S. to borrow against their sale. This could, perhaps likely will, severely diminish the amount of money the U.S. congress can spend.  WATCH:

None of this should come as a surprise to those who have paid attention. Factually, in March of last year, one month after the Russian sanctions were announced, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Deputy Managing Director said the sanctions against Russia are likely to undermine the US dollar’s global dominance as a trade currency.  Everyone could see this coming.

(Inside Paper) – March 2022 – […] “The dollar would remain the major global currency even in that landscape, but fragmentation at a smaller level is certainly quite possible,” Gopinath said in an interview with the Financial Times.  She went on to say that some countries have already begun to renegotiate the currency in which they are paid for trade.

According to Gopinath, the drastic restrictions imposed by Western countries in response to Russia’s military operation in Ukraine may result in the formation of small currency blocs based on trade between individual groups of countries.  Furthermore, the use of currencies other than the dollar or the euro in global trade would result in a further diversification of central banks’ reserve assets. (read more)

The efforts of NATO and the western alliance to crush the Russian currency have failed.  The Russian ruble currency has jumped back from the sanctions and is now even stronger than before the sanctions were put into place.

With China and India supporting ongoing trade with Russia, and with Saudi Arabia responding coldly to the U.S. working on a deal with Iran for nuclear weapons, the geopolitical strategy of NATO, G7 and the proverbial western alliance increasingly looks like it will backfire.

Yellow Team -vs- Gray Team: Remember, China just brokered a deal to lessen hostilities between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The fulcrum of that agreement was economics.

Meanwhile in North America, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador has said he was not willing to join the energy suicide pact pushed by Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau…. A policy break in the trilateral relationship which suddenly, and not coincidentally, aligns with the timing to make Mexico a pariah to the U.S. vis-a-vis a renewed media push on the drug cartel narrative.

BIG PICTURE NOT BEING DISCUSSED – The western politicians followed the climate change instructions of the WEF multinational corporations and banks (Build Back Better) and post-pandemic immediately started reducing energy development. The central bankers then began raising interest rates to shrink the economies of the same western nations to the scale of the now diminished energy production.

The raising of interest rates is now hitting the national and multinational banks impacted by government policy that was following WEF orders. Now the western politicians are stepping in with the government controlled central banks to backstop the national banks and multinationals. Can you see the dynamic?

Team yellow is suffering the consequences of their own ideological policy as enacted. Team grey is not going to help team yellow get out of a crisis team yellow created, which was intended to hurt team grey.

…. And we continue watching.