Posted originally on Jan 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: I understand that you dispute that cryptocurrency is a store of wealth because it is outside the central banks. Is this your position? Could you explain?
Respectfully submitted
Josh
ANSWER: Whoever made up this BS is most likely from the Deep State trying to control capital flows and economically imprison everyone. There is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING that is a store of wealth. Looking, Investopedia defines this term:
“What Is a Store Of Value?
A store of value is an asset, commodity, or currency that maintains its value without depreciating. “
It does not matter what money might be. There has been a boom and bust in every economy regardless of what they have used for money. This is an entirely Marxist Utopian idea. Why? Because to be some store of value means it CANNOT FLUCTUATE!!!!! This has stemmed from people who (1) do not understand that there are business cycles and (2) think, like Keynes and Marx, that the government can eliminate the business cycle and smooth out the economy. I had a conversation with Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Paul admitted that the business cycle always won and that the “new economics” (Keynesian Economists) failed back in the 1970s (see his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle).
Arthur Burns, Fed Chairman, came up with the same conclusion when Bretton Woods collapsed: that the business cycle always wins. Everything rises and falls based on supply and demand. Anyone telling you that Bitcoin is a “store of wealth” is either outright lying to you or they are ignorant of what they are talking about. Nothing ever is a store of wealth because everything rises and falls.
This is why the central banks cannot control inflation, no less money supply. I you sell an office building for $1 million to another person in your country, the money supply is not impacted. However, if you are in Britain as back in 1985, when the pound fell to $1,03, Americans were buying up everything like it was on sale at Harrods. The Brits thought the Yanks were crazy buying at the top of the property market and they were wrong for everything boomed thereafter. Why?
If I bought an office building in London at that time, I would have to bring in the cash from America, convert it to pounds, and buy the building. Thus, I increased the domestic money supply with important cash, and the central bank had nothing to do with that. NOTHING is a store of wealth EVER, no matter what it is, because everything will rise based on demand and crash when you can’t give it away.
This is why empires rise and fall. Nothing has ever remained a flat line in terms of value.
Posted originally on Dec 30, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Regarding CBDC, will they convert all the savings/cash in your bank account, will they convert everything in your brokerage accounts (all stocks etc.) will they go after gold and silver you have in storage (Brinks, for example)?
KS
ANSWER: Everything will be converted to the new CBDC. The money in your bank account is already just an electronic book entry. This is why banks are closing branches everywhere in the USA as well as Europe. They are preparing for CBDCs, which means without physical paper money, bank branches are no longer needed. You can deposit a check on your phone. The only thing left for a branch is safe deposit boxes, and the government assumes you are hiding cash there anyway. So kiss your local branch goodbye. The local bank I used because it was the closest has closed, and it is now a 30-minute ride to the closest one still open.
The monetary system will still function as normal. The exchange will probably be one-for-one. The main purpose of this is to destroy the underground economy to be able to tax everything – even the 16-year-old girl next door you hire to babysit while you go out to dinner and that $100 bill you found in the parking lot that you cheated the government out of their 50% gift tax. We are all looked down upon as scum. They presume we are all guilty and the whole debt crisis is never their fault – it is you – we the people.
This is the natural progression of direct taxation – the complete loss of all liberty. This is why the Founding Fathers prohibited direct taxation. But the socialists seized the government and followed Marx to get the evil rich. It was introduced with the promise that only the rich would have to pay. They lied about that as well, for as soon as the income tax took place, simultaneously in the same bill, there was the payroll tax demanding employers withhold income from their workers.
The federal income tax of 1913 was accompanied by the fact that the law also attempted to withhold the brand-new income tax because the people were never to be trusted. Initial estimates were that the withholding provisions would yield two-thirds of income tax revenue, but in 1916, less than 5% came from withholding. Furthermore, employers’ simple lack of compliance led to a massive groundswell of opposition to the new withholding system.
The people realized that the government lied to get the 16th Amendment passed, and the state politicians voted for it because it allowed them to also allowed them to impose income taxes at the state level. Even cities joined the money grab, imposing city income taxes. Every layer of government now had the right to extort money from the people based on their income, requiring disclosure of their personal lives. You gave your children money, which was circumventing income tax, so they rolled out the gift tax. , which fueled the corruption on a massive scale. The Revenue Act of 1862 included an inheritance tax and gift tax, which applied to transfers of personal assets. In 1864, Congress amended the Revenue Act, added a tax on transfers of real estate, and increased the rates for inheritance taxes. They have always used war to justify raising taxes, but they always remain in place thereafter. The War Revenue Act of 1898 implemented an inheritance tax of .74 % to 15%, which was used to fund the Spanish-American War. This is why the government loves to wage wars.
Posted originally on Dec 30, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
To a large extent, there is still much confusion regarding the creation of MONEY. Some people still think the government actually creates money as if it were in ancient times. When I say MONEY is no longer TANGIBLE, but it is VIRTUAL, many seem to fail to grasp just how much the world has changed. In ancient times, the state minted the coins AFTER 600 BC attempting to certify the weight to facilitate commerce. However, the government quickly learned that there was profit to be made, which is known as the “seigniorage,” referring to the difference between the intrinsic value of the metal and the declared value. In such a world, the state predominantly created money supply, discounting leverage from banking and counterfeiting.
Today that is about as far removed from how the economy functions as the next inhabitable planet. In the example I used that if a foreign investor buys domestic real estate, he is increasing the domestic money supply. The conversion of his local currency to the domestic currency is NOT dictated by some FIXED quantity created by the central bank. It is just electronic. Nobody actually prints anything , and the central bank does NOT even create electronic currency. It is just a book entry. Because the foreign investor is bringing in cash and buys a TANGIBLE object (real estate), the net amount of cash in the domestic supply of money increases the same when the Fed bought US bonds under QE2. Banking also LEVERAGES the economy by creating MONEY. If you have $1,000 on deposit and I borrow $1,000, we both now have accounts reflecting $1,000 each. Again, the state did NOT create that money.
It is once more a book entry. This is how a BANK PANIC will take place. You go to the bank trying to get your $1,000, but the bank actually lent it to me. As long as you do not try to take out that $1,000, everything is fine and dandy. Therefore, MONEY is not TANGIBLE, and it is purely VIRTUAL! The idea that MONEY is supposed to be some TANGIBLE object actually ended in 600 BC once government got involved and began to manufacture a profit from creating money. As long as the economy is free, then you are free to keep your wealth in whatever object you desire, be it gold or real estate. MONEY is NOT a store of value, for it has always fluctuated, rising in purchasing power in recessions (NOW) and declining in booms.
Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The Global Market Watch (GMW) was created for one of the top 10 banks in the world. It allowed them to look at their entire portfolio without reading a thousand reports. This allowed them to hone in on what might need their attention. As they commented, this is like having 1,000 trading assistants. We really are too busy advertising or engaging in marketing campaigns. You can die from having too much business. As is the case with offices worldwide, someone is always awake. This was designed for large institutions to save time and provide an important tool for investing.
The comments are a work in progress since the model still identifies new patterns. Socrates is proving that all the theories from the nonsense of Random Walks, etc., are just excuses for people incapable of comprehending how the world functions. The GMW records a pattern REGARDLESS of the market and assigns a number you see under the comment. That same pattern shows up in every market because the instrument is irrelevant – it is how human nature interacts with that market.
We can create a GMW for your entire portfolio to give you a fast glance at your portfolio. We are currently working on providing the same tools that I have used so you can ask question and it will respond. We are considering creating a terminal so it will access our systems and provide you with an impressive assistant.
Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION #1: Mr. Armstrong, you used to provide your reports rebranded to an institution’s name in Tokyo. Would you consider that for other countries?
GL
ANSWER #1: Yes. We would articulate the turning points rather than include the arrays. That would make it too identifiable, tracing back to us. But certainly, we can do that and attack an institution’s name, such as a reputable bank or brokerage house. We can replace the majority of the cost of research. We have a database of virtually every stock in the world.
QUESTION #2: Can I request that a particular stock be added to Socrates?
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
The International Monetary Fund is willing to provide El Salvador with a $1.3 billion loan, but the nation must meet two demands. First, El Salvador must commit to reducing its budget deficit to 3.5% of GDP over the next three years. The second requirement is for El Salvador to begin backing away from bitcoin.
El Salvador declared bitcoin legal tender in 2021. The nation holds a bitcoin Treasury worth over $600 million as of lately with bitcoin’s recent price spike and has been purchasing about 1 btc per day. President Nayib Bukele recently took to social media to declare the success of his bitcoin adaptation, claiming gains of over 127%. Yet, the public has not largely adopted the new currency. In fact, the Central American University conducted a study in January that revealed 88% of citizens have not used bitcoin in transactions over the previous year.
Under the new IMF requirement, El Salvador must prohibit the legal requirement that states businesses must accept bitcoin as payment. Under this premise, bitcoin could not truly be considered legal tender.
As I have said, global organizations will not permit crypto to operate freely outside their control. I must agree with the IMF that Bitcoin’s volatile pricing presents financial instability and exposes government revenue to greater foreign exchange rate risks. Bitcoin is merely a trading vehicle and not a proper currency. However, the IMF also states that it is concerned about anti-money laundering practices. which simply means they are concerned that they cannot tax it.
Taxation goes hand in hand with lowering the budget deficit, as the nation has been steadily increasing tax revenue. Tax revenues reached 17.64% of GDP in 2017, later advancing to 19.75% in 2022. The government has several measures in place for tax evasion and has improved its digital taxpayer registry to see who has underpaid. There is hope that the recent discovery of gold will offset the hunt for taxation, and the president does seem to be a reasonable man. Perhaps El Salvador will not require a loan if it has truly found trillions worth of gold. It appears that Nayib Bukele will not back away from his stance on bitcoin either way.
Posted originally on Dec 10, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I hope you come to Dubai for a conference next year. After your Syrian forecast that the civil war would end only 13 years from the start in 2011, those of us here are still in shock and awe, as you say there in the States. I know your models have considered the cycles in Syria from Roman times. Is 2027 still the target in the Middle East?
BAF
ANSWER: Syria has a very long history. Antioch was the link to the Silk Road for all the dies and spices from Asia. As you can see, it is sandwiched between Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. Historically, it has also been known as the Levant and a strategic chess piece in the global war of geopolitics. The Seleucid Empire was a Greek state in West Asia during the Hellenistic period. It was founded in 312BC by the Macedonian general Seleucus I Nikator (312-281BC) when the Macedonian Empire founded by Alexander the Great was divided after his death among his generals.
Thus, this became known as the Seleucid dynasty until its annexation by the Roman Republic under Pompey in 63 BC, who conquered the region, transforming Syria into a Roman province. This has lent Syria the opportunity to provide a rich database extending centuries for computer analysis. First, you must acknowledge that laws are always silent during war and civil unrest. They are the decorations of civilization and only apply when there is civil discord – not war and upheaval.
The first Syrian to become a Roman Emperor was Elagabalus (218-222AD). This is always the same pattern of the conquered/slave eventually becoming king. Some pointed that out when Obama became President. This is a mere fact of history. The king is dead – long live the king. Another fact of history is when there is a civil uprising, the king may fall, but the victor quickly assumes the same policies as those he vanquished.
The English Civil War tore down the rule of law, and here you see Oliver Cromwell quickly issued coinage styled as the very king he had beheaded for daring to defend against him in the civil war. He put King Charles on trial, found him guilty for losing the civil war, and then beheaded him.
Civil Wars tend to last 4.3 years (American Civil War), 8.6 years (English Civil War), and even 13 years (Cambodian Civil War, 1967-1975). However, go beyond that 8.6-year period, and it will extend to 13 years.
Countless times when there have been civil wars, you find the head of state when captured, is often executed. This seems to be standard. When they are dead, they will routinely topple their statues as they did throughout Eastern Europe, toppling the statues of Lenin.
Civil Wars always invoke deep hatred, and when leaders are not executed, what you find is often assassinations of the victor. They assassinated Julius Caesar after he won the civil war. These are cyclical patterns that routinely take place. There was an attempted assassination of Zelensky, and he fired his head of security because it was Ukrainians – not Russians. There was a similar attempted assassination of Hitler.
Assad is wise to flee with his family to Russia, for they would have all been executed just as the Russian Revolution executed the entire family of the Czar. People who engaged in civil wars and/or revolutions always responded the same way, no matter what culture or nation was involved. The Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi also fled Iran in 1978 during that revolution. These things may appear to be a shock, but they are standard in the playbook of geopolitics.
I have previously warned that Turkey has the largest army in the Middle East, and Erdogan praised the Hamas attack because he dreams of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire and he sees himself as the leader. They are mortal enemies of Greece and that goes back to the fall of the Byzantine Empire. Turkey has funded these rebels, and that became possible only because Israel destroyed Hezbollah. On the one hand, you have the US cheering Al-Qaeda all because the Neocons have been trying for years to overthrow all three dictators they created in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. Now, they can get the pipeline from Qutar to cut off Russia’s energy sales to Europe. So this is all about Russia, Russia, Russia. Meanwhile, they are so fixated on conquering Russia that they have ignored the real threat in the Middle East of the resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.
I will update the prospects for war in the Middle East and the power vacuum that is unfolding that is hidden behind the headlines. Most people have no idea that it was the West that created all of these arab states. They were never independent nation-states. With World War I, the West finally took down the Ottoman Empire. This was when the Sykes-Picot Agreement was established as a 1916 secret treaty between the United Kingdom and France, with the consent of Russia, Italy, and the United States. They were carving up the Ottoman Empire, which they mutually agreed to establish spheres of influence, thereby partitioning the Ottoman Empire. Syria was created, and the rule of Assad was in the economic interests of the West.
I have been asked why I do not write much about the Israeli war and offer a solution. There is NONE!!!! This is a religious war, and a ceasefire will only be temporary. Israel’s enemies is not limited to Iran. It also includes Turkey as we move forward in time.
We will publish an update on the geopolitical future of the Middle East for the Arab world and Israel. This will be released in January.
Posted originally on Dec 2, 2024 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Dear Martin,
I listened to Joe Rogan’s podcast interview w/Marc Andreessen where Marc reported that the Biden administration has been secretly meeting with AI companies. Their message: “Don’t even bother starting AI companies. There will only be 2-3 approved companies, and we’ll control them completely.”
It made me think of you and your ordeal, so many years ago.
Thank you for being on the right side of history.
Happy belated Thanksgiving ?
warmly, RH
COMMENT #2: Wikipedia is a vile organization that is controlled by the Deep State when it has anything to do with politics, including health. I was there in Amsterdam the night of your film showing when those of us in the financial and banking community were invited. I remember well when the moderator asked you if you got to keep the claimed missing $1 billion, and you turned to the audience and asked if it was possible that $1 billion could be removed from a bank, but nobody knew where it was. The audience burst out in laughter. What these people did to you on not just a false charge but on a charge that was impossible, and organizations like Wikipedia will never report the truth is a warning to us all.
Thank you for your courage. I do not know many who could have survived what they put you through, from torture to attempting to kill you.
GVB
COMMENT #3 What the Biden administration did with dictating to social media over COVID was a clear warning to us all that even Wikipedia is a tool to manipulate society. What they did to you refusing to report that the bank is the one that pleaded guilty and had to repay all your clients demonstrates that Wikipedia is propaganda. We can no longer trust mainstream media; every social media aspect has been corrupted. This is why individual podcasts are becoming popular. If you believe Wikipedia on anything political, you cannot possibly have a functioning brain. They have become the symbol of the decline of our society.
Gerry
REPLY: There is no question that those in power want to control AI and ensure it only puts out their propaganda. OMG, you ask it a question, and it tells the truth? That is just unacceptable. We are no different from the old USSR. That was Lenin’s view – control the press, and you can manipulate society. He has been proven correct time and time again. We are just a herd of sheep being led to the slaughter.
The computer I created and named Socrates has forecast every significant financial crisis and geopolitical event, including war. When the CIA wanted me to build the model for them in 1998 after it forecasted the collapse of Russia, I offered to run any study they wanted, but I was told they had to own it. I understand that was their view from a national security perspective, and nobody else should have that information. At the end of the day, I realize my refusal to turn over the source code has placed a target on my back. So be it. I didn’t realize developing AI would become a risk in a free society.
Not only did I stand up at our World Economic Conference in December 2011, held in Philadelphia, and forecast that war would begin in 2014, but I even put on the blog in 2013 that the place it would begin was Ukraine – the country to watch.
In June 1998, we held our World Economic Conference in London. Little did I know that a journalist from the London Financial Times was there and put our forecast that Russia would collapse on the front page in the weeks ahead. That appeared in the FT on June 27th, 1998. When that happened, the bankers blamed me, claiming I had too much influence, and instructed the CFTC to shut us down.
The computer had forecast Russia’s collapse, manifested in the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis in September 1998. That compelled the Federal Reserve to bail out the bankers and even a hedge fund since they were all on the same trade. They expected a never-ending 30%+ return on Russian debt (GKO) supported by the IMF. Still, the Economic Confidence Model had also projected the very day of the high years in advance for the stock market would be July 20th, 1998. Even the 911 attack took place precisely on the Pi Target during that wave, and the Dow Jones then bottomed precisely in 2002 on the very day of the end of that wave. All of those forecasts came true, and the bankers were just trying for the guaranteed trades, bribing the IMF and people in various governments, never risking a dime from their view.
Let me explain something. To even do the movie on me, The Forecaster, also available on DVD, they had to be insured against slander, etc. Lloyds of London insured the film, and to do so, we had to prove that they wanted the computer code since that was NEVER publicly stated in the case openly. A client offered to rent the Institute to keep the forecasts going. I have been told that the bankers instructed the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to shut down our forecasting because they would always lose. Even in the film, one employee said he did his due diligence on my firm with Goldman Sachs before taking a job. He stated in the film that Goldman Sachs always thought they could crush me, but I usually won.
I was asked to invest $10 billion into Hermitage Capital Management to take over Russia. They blackmailed Yeltsin owner a $7 billion money laundering scam to step down and they were going to install Boris Berezovsky as the new President of Russia. All the gold in Russia would go through the Republic National Bank in New York, and I was told I would get $100 billion back as my return. I refused. I was not into regime change.
That blackmail took place in June 1999, and they ran to the government claiming $1 billion was missing, and they had no idea where it was. The prosecutors were so stupid and never asked how someone gets $1 billion out of a bank with no trace. But why let reality stand in the way of a good prosecution in New York City, as Trump discovered?
Then, they appointed Alan Cohen receiver to run my company, which Goldman Sachs then hired. They ran Princeton Economics from the boardroom of Goldman Sachs. You object to this conflict of interest and are told to shut up. Trump discovered how a prosecutor is then raised to an “acting” judge who gets his case and Bannon. What luck from a random assignment.
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