The Better Investment — ETFs or Mutual Funds?


Posted originally on Jul 7, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

ETF Tax

The primary difference between mutual funds and ETFs (exchange-traded funds) is that while an open-end mutual fund is priced once based on the market closing, ETFs, as well as closed-end mutual funds, trade all day. This actually goes back to the Panic of 1966 when mutual funds were open-ended but traded on the exchange and were bid up and down based on emotion rather than net asset value. The crash took place because mutual funds were, at times, selling well above net asset value.

If we look at the reforms post-1966, investors in mutual funds buy or sell them directly from the mutual fund companies themselves. That creates a different tax structure than an ETF in which purchases go to the market and the ETF is simply created by purchasing the underlying basket.

Mutual funds and most ETFs are governed by the Investment Company Act of 1940. Therefore, this legislation treats them like a pass-through company. When a mutual-fund investor wants to sell, the fund sells shares of appreciated stock to generate cash, which creates a taxable capital gain. Since most funds operate as simple pass-through vehicles, those tax liabilities from the gains accrue to all investors in the fund, including those who have not sold any holdings.

ETFs actually do avoid that type of tax issue. ETFs are not direct buyers or sellers of shares as a mutual fund. The ETF is created by a market maker with a special contract with the ETF provider. The investor has the newly created ETF share, which is created by purchasing all of the holdings in the underlying ETF. This basket of shares is given to the ETF issuer, thereby creating the ETF shares.

Because an ETF is not a direct buyer of the underlying shares as in a mutual fund, the ETF itself is not a buyer or seller. The basket of shares is swapped and is therefore an in-kind transaction; thus, there is no pass-through capital-gains tax bill. This is the tax advantage of an ETF over a mutual fund.

Quantum Cthulu or Magic Chandelier? Joe Allen interviews André König at World Summit AI @joebotxyz


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What Comes After the AI Hype Bubble? Joe Allen interviews Gary Marcus at World Summit AI


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WarRoom Battleground EP 794: Future Shock: Massive Data Breach, OpenAI Surveillance, and the Quantum Apocalypse


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The Singularity as Spirituality — Joe Allen interviews Ben Goertzel at World Summit AI


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Joe Allen on Future Shock: Massive Data Breach, OpenAI Surveillance, and the Quantum Apocalypse


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Joe Allen Reports From World Summit AI: “They Say the Singularity is Near”


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Beware of Fake AI Startups


Posted originally on Jun 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

AI Artifical Intelligence

A billion-dollar company went bankrupt nearly overnight when it was revealed that their AI software was simply a group of 700 Indians in a data center providing users with responses. Builder.ai was valued at $1.5 billion and attracted major investors such as Microsoft.

The company engaged in what is known as “round-tripping” with VerSe Innovation, an Indian social media firm, where each company billed the other for similar amounts in order to inflate sales. Investors were misled, as they believed the company was performing well.

Builder.ai declared their 2024 revenue to be $220 million, which was later revised to $55 million. In 2023, they initially claimed to gross $180 in sales, but later revised this to $45 million. The company’s AI service “Natasha” was said to be a revolutionary development in AI. It turns out that Natasha was barely functional, and 700 Indian engineers performed most of the coding.

The company is facing insolvency hearings in jurisdictions across India, the US, and the UK. The company now has significant outstanding debts for unpaid cloud services, owing Microsoft $30 million and Amazon $85 million.

We are amid an AI start-up boom where countless companies are claiming to offer real AI services. This is a cautionary tale, as not all startups are operating on real AI platforms. Builder.ai was able to deceive even Microsoft. Proceed with caution.

Japanese’s Sovereign Debt Crisis


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Japan_Debt_Crisis_2025 6 5 25
Japan_Debt_Crisis_2025 INDEX 6 5 25

This is the first installment for our Institutional Clients concerning the two countries at the greatest risk of DEFAULT – Japan and Germany. We have provided the forecast for Japan’s default and explained in detail the internal battle between the Government, the Bank of Japan, and the Private Sector. This report exposes the truth about who holds what and the threat to instability as Japan also tries to cozy up close to NATO as a diversion for its fiscal mismanagement.

Investors have long fretted about the sustainability of Japan’s government debt as other nations, including Germany, are facing unsustainable fiscal mismanagement across the developed world. Japan has garnered the most attention due to its highest debt load relative to economic output and the heaviest debt-service burden. At the same time, the excuse has been that they are mostly self-funded, and as such, appearances are deceptive. Still, all Western nations are on a collision course with a sovereign debt crisis that will bring them all crashing down when the line at the door stops buying the new debt to roll over the old.

Japan’s fiscal mismanagement is not significantly worse than that of others. The pandemic, climate change, sluggish growth, and financial crises, accompanied by a lack of confidence, have led to an increase in government debt for many wealthy countries. At more than 250% of GDP, Japan’s gross debt stands out. Combined with sluggish growth and a shrinking population, many financiers and economists see it as an existential risk. The real question this report addresses is the real story behind the curtain, and when does this come to a head?