Central Banks Are Trapped – Higher Interest Rates the Only Answer?


Reserve Bank Australia Glenn Stevens

COMMENT: Marty, well it looks like you have done it. The central banks are going to start raising interest rates right in line with your model. It is interesting how your computer puts the entire world before you to see. Keep up the good work. They obviously are starting to follow you.

SS

REPLY: I do not think that the central banks are simply beginning to follow us. Yes, they all probably read us no doubt. But make no mistake about it, they are going to raise rates not because of our model, but because they have no choice. Low interest rates have wiped out pension funds and destroyed the living standards of the elderly. These people are clueless and should never have followed Larry Summers down this path of absolute hell. The comments of Glenn Stevens, the meeting between Yellen and Obama, and the criticism starting to surface against Draghi at the ECB is the realization that interest rates must be “normalized” (raised) but they have created a nightmare for governments are addicted to low interest rates and their budget will explode and we will see a sharp rising in taxes from 2017 onward.

We will be putting out a very important special report. What is going on behind the curtain right now is state pensions are lobbying Congress to make it MANDATORY that everyone (not just government employees) contribute to state pension systems. They want to takeover your 401K and manage everything robbing your saving to pay for unfunded liabilities to state workers. This is how they are looking to bail themselves out. This is the dark side post-2017. This is going on right now and it is still all hush hush.

CBDUSA-Y 2015

All the markets from metals to equities and oil, have pushed right to the limits. Almost all markets are approaching their key target resistance and reversals. Even silver has rallied to the Weekly Bullish at 1719 followed by 1775 just below last year’s high of 1850.5 causing the silver/gold ratio to bounce from resistance. The Dow has done almost the exact same type of move reaching the Bullish Reversals just beneath last year’s high. Gold has done the same thing stopping just 30 cents from the Weekly Bullish Reversal at 1287.50 shy of last year’s high of 1307.80. Of course oil has not come close to last year’s high of 62.58.

The point is, when we extract the emotion and opinion which is incompatible with forecasting, the entire purpose of our model is to provide a very black and white perspective without the hype and emotion that causes losses. We know when to get excited and when to hold back. Nearly 90% of people investing lose money because they are victims of their own emotion. Let the markets show you the trend. They are never wrong, only people. Over the years I have personally noticed that when it is the MOST difficult even for me to stand firm and I begin to question will it break through, that is precisely when it does not. So if the markets can move to such an extreme that even I get that feeling inside OMG, is this correct, that is when it is right in spades. This is an emotional game and people trade emotionally to their own demise.

So step back, we have the time and numbers. Just let the markets do what they do best. Never ANTICIPATE for that is how you buy the high or sell the low.

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