Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany Re-Posted May 30, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
My friends in Germany are asking when will American rebel?
German RAP Song against COVID showing the Youth is also not buying this COVID scam.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 25, 2021 | Sundance | 137 Comments
Senator Rand Paul appears on Maria Bartiromo to discuss the ongoing ramification from current leftist policy as being produced on Capitol Hill. The interview begins with Senator Paul discussing the leftist definitions of ‘infrastructure’ and how left-wing groups are beneficiaries of trillions of taxpayer funds.
On the economic ramifications Senator Paul notes the impact of massive capital gains increases and how increasing corporate income taxes only provides incentives for national companies to establish themselves overseas to avoid tax liability. The multinational corps, those already positioned overseas, do not have the same risk exposure to corporate tax increases, thus they do not oppose legislation that hurts national business and small U.S. corporations.
Overall the points made by Rand Paul are all valid; however, those in DC still hold back from pointing out the intent of the JoeBama group – that’s frustrating. This game where incompetence is claimed under the guise of ‘benefit of doubt’ is a severe weakness within the GOP. The refusal to aggressively confront Obama 3.0 is beyond frustrating.
Anyone who believes Democrats own exclusive opposition to the America First principles are completely ignoring the deliberate construct of the republican party. There are just as many -if not more- natural enemies within the Republican apparatus as there are within the Democrat group. “America-First” is antithetical to the UniParty.
The frustration amid the MAGA community is valid. Everything about it is righteous. The mechanisms that run the system in DC must be deconstructed if we are to win the battles and the war against this massive enemy. We have the largest coalition of American patriots on our side; however, there are only a handful of representatives willing to confront with the needed ferocity.
Multinationals want control; some call that corporatism…. but the names are moot. Multinationals want control, and capitalism does not allow them control; that is why multinationals do not want capitalism. Multinationals use lobbyists to generate regulations that stall competition.
Multinationals do not want competition; they are, by nature of their interest, anti-capitalists.
This misunderstanding is everywhere.
Most people think when they vote for a federal politician -a House or Senate representative- they are voting for a person who will go to Washington DC and write or enact legislation. This is the old-fashioned “schoolhouse rock” perspective based on decades past.
There is not a single person in congress writing legislation or laws. In modern politics not a single member of the House of Representatives or Senator writes a law, or puts pen to paper to write out a legislative construct. This simply doesn’t happen.
Over the past several decades a system of constructing legislation has taken over Washington DC that more resembles a business operation than a legislative body.
The for-profit groups (mostly multinational corporations) have a purpose in Washington DC to shape policy, legislation and laws favorable to their interests. They have fully staffed offices just like any business would – only their ‘business‘ is getting legislation for their unique interests.
These groups are filled with highly-paid lawyers who represent the interests of the entity and actually write laws and legislation briefs.
In the modern era this is actually the origination of the laws that we eventually see passed by congress. Within the walls of these buildings within Washington DC is where the ‘sausage’ is actually made. Again, no elected official is usually part of this law origination process.
Almost all legislation created is not ‘high profile’, they are obscure changes to current laws, regulations or policies that no-one pays attention to. The passage of the general bills within legislation is not covered in media. Ninety-nine percent of legislative activity happens without anyone outside the system even paying any attention to it.
Once the corporation (multinational) or representative organizational entity has written the law they want to see passed – they hand it off to the lobbyists.
The lobbyists are people who have deep contacts within the political bodies of the legislative branch, usually former House/Senate staff or former House/Senate politicians themselves.
The lobbyist takes the written brief, the legislative construct, and it’s their job to go to congress and sell it. “Selling it” means finding politicians who will accept the brief, sponsor their bill and eventually get it to a vote and passage.
Corporations (special interest group) write the legislation. Lobbyists take the law and go find politician(s) to support it. Politicians get support from their peers using tenure and status etc. Eventually, if things go according to norm, the legislation gets a vote.
Within every step of the process there are expense account lunches, dinners, trips, venue tickets and a host of other customary financial way-points to generate/leverage a successful outcome. The amount of money spent is proportional to the benefit derived from the outcome.
The important part to remember is that the origination of the entire process is EXTERNAL to congress.
Congress does not write laws or legislation, special interest groups do. Lobbyists are paid, some very well paid, to get politicians to go along with the need of the legislative group. When a House or Senate member becomes educated on the intent of the legislation, they have attended the sales pitch; and when they find out the likelihood of support for that legislation; they can then position their own (or their families) financial interests to benefit from the consequence of passage. It is a process similar to insider trading on Wall Street, except the trading is based on knowing who will benefit from a legislative passage.
When we understand the business of DC, we understand the difference between legislation with a traditional purpose and modern legislation with a financial and political agenda.
If you know a better solution to this mess than repeal of the 17th amendment, I am all ears.
If, as the constitution outlined, the Senate were still a place where all legislation required a 2/3 majority for passage; and if, as the constitution outlined, the Senate were a body filled with representatives selected by State Houses instead of popular election – then perhaps Senators could not be purchased by multinational interests. Alas it is not.
Passage of the 17th amendment took away the very intentional roadblock of the Republican framework that Jefferson spoke of when he called it a saucer to cool the hot emotional tea of short-sighted legislation. The constitution outlined consent as “two-thirds” (66), which was progressively watered down to become “three-fifths” (60) as the majority rule; and substantively, as it now stands according to democrats objectives, one-half plus one (51).
We are on the precipice and the GOP operate as if the constitution burning can be restored if they just reach across the aisle more.
Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Feb 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong
The Ox is the second of all zodiac animals. According to one myth, the Jade Emperor said the order would be decided by the order in which they arrived to his party. The Ox was about to be the first to arrive, but Rat tricked Ox into giving him a ride. Then, just as they arrived, Rat jumped down and landed ahead of Ox. Thus, Ox became the second animal.
From a cyclical perspective, these are years that do correspond to important shifts in trends. The year 1913 was the year of the Ox when both the income tax and the Federal Reserve were created. (125 was the year the bull market really began to take off and real estate was the first to peak 2 years later. Of court 1949 was the first currency devaluation under Bretton Woods. Even 1961 was Kennedy election, 1973 OPEC, 1985 peak in dollar birth of G5, 1997 Asia Currency Crisis, 2009 bottom in the 2007 Financial Crisis, and now 2021 looks to be shaping up as a disaster and Biden takes control. The next will be 2033 one year after our model peaks in 2032.
Any attempt by the ICC to enforce a warrant against any U.S. citizens must be fought by all means necessary
The UN readout portrayed the meeting as a kumbaya moment. “The Secretary-General expressed appreciation for the continued engagement of the United States in the United Nation,” the UN statement said. It ticked off as topics of discussion “a range of situations around the world, including Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, the Sahel and the questions related to the implementation of the host country agreement.” The reference to the host country agreement implementation may have alluded to a dispute over the denial or delay of visas issued by the U.S. to UN diplomats from certain countries, principally Russia and Iran, seeking to attend UN meetings in New York. However, the statement completely sidestepped the substance of the issue. Nothing was even hinted regarding any other differences between the United States and the United Nations.
The State Department readout did not hold back, however. Half of the readout was devoted to the UN’s highly biased pro-Palestinian decision to release its blacklist of companies doing business with Israeli firms operating in disputed areas of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, which includes several U.S. companies. It said that Secretary Pompeo “reiterated his outrage at the decision by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet to publish a database of companies operating in Israeli-controlled territories.” The U.S. statement added that Secretary Pompeo “made clear that the United States will continue to engage UN officials and member states on this matter, will not tolerate the reckless mistreatment of U.S. companies, and will respond to actions harmful to our business community.”
As usual, the UN Secretary General tried to paper over significant objections to the UN’s moral failures with diplomatic niceties. Secretary Pompeo, representing the UN’s biggest financial contributor by far, was not willing to be a part of such play-acting. What Bachelet did, with the Secretary General’s evident concurrence, blatantly undermines real human rights. The UN blacklist promotes the agenda of the anti-Semitic Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement, which discriminatorily singles out the Jewish State for economic punishment because of its “settlements” activities. Turkey, which illegally occupied Northern Cyprus in 1974, has since sent thousands of Turkish settlers and occupation troops to Northern Cyprus, without a whimper of objection by UN officials. Ironically, the livelihoods of Palestinians and their families will be jeopardized if Palestinians working for the affected businesses lose their jobs as a result of the boycott encouraged by the UN’s blacklist.
The true agenda of the BDS, with which the UN is complicit, is the total destruction of the Jewish State of Israel and its full takeover by Palestinian militants. “No Palestinian, rational Palestinian, not a sell-out Palestinian, will ever accept a Jewish state in Palestine,” said Omar Barghouti, BDS’s co-founder. The truth is that the BDS movement and its offshoot at the United Nations are a throwback to the Nazi boycott of Jewish businesses.
Thus, the Trump administration correctly objects to the use of the American taxpayer-funded UN bureaucracy to promulgate a blacklist intended to intimidate U.S. businesses and others into complying with the BDS boycott. Secretary General Guterres should heed the message that Secretary Pompeo delivered to him during their face-to-face meeting on Friday or face the financial consequences from further cuts in U.S. contributions to the UN’s bloated budget.
We do not know for sure what was said during the meeting regarding implementation of the Agreement between the United Nations and the United States of America regarding the Headquarters of the United Nations – the so-called host country agreement. However, Secretary General Guterres has expressed concerns in the past over failures or delays by the Trump administration in issuing visas to foreign government officials seeking entry to the United States to attend UN meetings as well as the imposition of travel restrictions.
Hopefully, Secretary of State Pompeo made it clear to Secretary General Guterres that the International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda and her investigatory staff will not be welcome to the United States as long as they pursue their vendetta against American officials, soldiers, and intelligence agents for perfectly lawful actions taken against terrorists in Afghanistan.
A panel of judges from the ICC’s Appeals Chamber has just reversed an earlier ruling by an ICC panel of judges, which had blocked a probe into possible war crimes and crimes against humanity in Afghanistan. The Appeals Chamber judges decided unanimously on Thursday to allow the ICC prosecutor to investigate possible crimes on Afghan territory since May 2003 and other alleged crimes linked to the situation there since July 2002. The United States is not a party to the ICC Rome Statute and, moreover, has its own robust system of justice that the ICC has no valid jurisdiction to supplant or override.
The U.S. has already revoked ICC Prosecutor Bensouda’s entry visa to the United States
The ICC prosecutor called the decision “an important day for the cause of justice in the situation of Afghanistan, for the Court, and for international criminal justice more broadly.” To the contrary, the decision was, in Secretary Pompeo’s words, a “breathtaking action by an unaccountable political institution, masquerading as a legal body.” He added, “It is all the more reckless for this ruling to come just days after the United States signed a historic peace deal on Afghanistan, which is the best chance for peace in a generation. We’re going to take all the appropriate actions to ensure that American citizens are not hauled before this political body to settle political vendettas.”
The Trump administration can start by following through on Secretary Pompeo’s warning last year that the U.S. would deny or revoke visas for International Criminal Court staff. The U.S. has already revoked ICC Prosecutor Bensouda’s entry visa to the United States. She should continue to be barred entry, along with her investigators. They also must be barred from interviewing any past or present U.S. officials, soldiers or other government personnel anywhere in the world. Any attempt by the ICC to enforce a warrant against any U.S. citizens must be fought by all means necessary.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates
Re-Posted Dec 4, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty; A friend of mine is an analyst at one of the major banks in New York. He said they are not allowed to forecast some things as you said. He used to work for a European bank and did say it was much worse. He said everyone who is anyone reads you. He also said that none of the mainstream media will ever report on Socrates because you will put all analysis out of business. Is this why you intend to go public?
Thanks so much for your insight in creating Socrates.
ANSWER: Mainstream press in the USA has never been interested in really covering our analysis. They are not interested in reporting that a computer can actually write reports and forecast the entire world. You have to understand, we remain the best-kept secret. Even when Nigel Farage was our guest speaker in Rome, he said he had to come after we forecast BREXIT. Now, not a single British newspaper ever reported our forecast before or after. Nonetheless, those in power and in strategic institutions and corporations, all know what our forecasts were. So it is an interesting paradox. We are the best-read, but the most under-reported.
Nobody wants to report there is a computer that forecasts the world for it at the same time exposes the true trend of the economy and all the interconnections, including climate change. In the summer when the Inverted Yield Curve was taking place, all the newspapers were forecasting Trump would lose because the economy was headed into a recession. That was their typical biased war against Trump. Our model showed there would be a moderate decline in the expansion into the ECM for January, but that we did not see a major correction or a major recession.
These types of forecasts are not luck nor are they based upon what “I think” for we are all human and thus we are subject to making mistakes. We need a dispassionate analysis of a computer to provide an objective outlook. People keep trying to compete with me personally which is often quite funny to me.
Socrates will only be recognized when (1) we go public, and (2) after my death. That is just how things work. Even in the Bible, Jesus said that a prophet has no honor or is recognized in his own country’ (John 4:44). That is the way it has ALWAYS been in every field. Not exactly sure why it is that way. It just is! I have always been covered more by the press outside the USA than inside.
Italy is one of the key economies within the EU. In the past several years, driven by both economic challenges and unfettered immigration challenges, the populist revolt has gained ground. Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, a nationalist-minded politician, has won the hearts of Italian voters. Matteo Salvini is a proud Italian populist.
Several months ago Matteo Salvini challenged current Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to hold a snap election; and followed-up with continued pressure on the Italian government by advancing populist positions of economic patriotism, sovereignty and tougher immigration rules.
Amid a revolt against globalism writ large, it was not accidental that Nancy Pelosi traveled to Italy recently with a coalition of U.S. leftist politicians to organize a strategy to fend-off Salvini and assist Prime Minister Conte. Pelosi is an opportunist. Part of the plan for Conte to hold power was a shift within his party (Five Star Movement or 5sM) to form an alliance with the Italian left-wing Democratic Party (Pelosi’s ideological allies).
To pull off their plan, Conte and the Democratic Party would align; Conte would then resign and hold the snap election where 5sM and the far-left Democratic party would re-elect him. This approach would strategically counter the 36 percent of support currently held by Matteo Salvini (the League). Today Giuseppe Conte resigned.
(Wall Street Journal) […] Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation in a speech to the Senate on Tuesday, blaming far-right Interior Minister Matteo Salvini for causing a political crisis as Italy looks to draw up a challenging budget to keep its parlous finances on track.
[…] Leaders of 5 Star are exploring the only plausible alternative to snap elections the League would likely win: a new coalition government with their longstanding foes, the mainstream center-left Democratic Party. Talks in coming days could show whether such a coalition is possible or early elections are needed.
Italy’s power struggle is a symptom of Europe’s continuing political upheaval after a decade of crises including the economic depression in the periphery of the eurozone and the pressures of rising immigration from poor and war-torn parts of Africa and the Middle East.
[…] The political upheaval has gone further in Italy than in most other EU countries. In March 2018 elections, Italy’s mainstream parties suffered a heavy defeat. In a country tired of economic stagnation and ineffectual political incumbents, one in three Italians backed 5 Star, while the League won 17% of the vote. Since then, however, 5 Star has struggled in government and its support has halved, while Mr. Salvini’s tough stance on immigration has helped double support for the League.
If Italy holds early elections, Mr. Salvini could become the first leader of a major EU nation who comes from a self-described populist party to the right of Europe’s mainstream conservatives. Mr. Salvini, an avowed admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has challenged the EU’s rules on fiscal discipline, accusing Germany and France of hypocritically breaking the rules while imposing austerity on Italy. Some League officials have advocated Italy’s exit from the euro, although Mr. Salvini says it isn’t on his agenda. (read more)
In the background of all of this we have: (1) Italy’s involvement in “spygate” and the U.S. intelligence operations in/around Joseph Mifsud (Malta). (2) The pending Brexit at the end of October, a threat to Pelosi’s ideological group. (3) The possible defeat of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, another threat to Pelosi’s ideological group; and (4) the economics of Trump’s trade strategy, more threats to Pelosi’s scheme team.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is traveling the world in an attempt to block rising nationalism, and the consequences of economic trade deals therein, wherever possible. Her domestic political interests in the 2020 election are predicated on stopping the deglobalization process underway by President Trump.
Armstrong Economics Blog/China
Re-Posted Aug 19, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The War Cycle is by far on schedule. We have tensions rising almost everywhere. In Asia, we have the Kashmir Crisis as hundreds of people took the streets in Srinagar, the main Indian city, to protest New Delhi’s decision to lift the special status of the territory.
In Hong Kong, there are fears that China will send in troops and take military action, which would trigger an international crisis as fear in Asia as a whole will rise sharply over the future of economic stability. This could send the yuan crashing and even force the break of the Hong Kong peg. The Hong Kong share market peaked in January 2018. It has not made new highs in 2019 and remains at risk of breaking the 2018 low of 24540.43. That gives way and capital is showing its concern for the future of Hong Kong.
In South Korea, the high in the share market remains that of November 2017. We are trading below the 2017 low. A closing at year-end below that warns of lower lows into 2020. Here, the concern is the economic pressure on North Korea. North Korea holds a Tree Planting Day every March. The question is whether it could help regreen a largely deforested nation whose people face food shortages, deadly natural disasters, and bitterly cold winters. These economic pressures will eventually push the Supreme Leader into perhaps an attack on South Korea or face an overthrow himself.
We have a serious crisis building in Asia on three fronts. Then there is the chaos of Europe. The Democrats are complete idiots for claiming if Britain exits the EU, they will block any trade deal to punish Britain in support of Brussels. Instead of helping to solve the crisis, they are encouraging the EU not to renegotiate. The Democrats are basically saying — screw the Irish.
Right now, I am working from Asia in the middle of a real crisis with a front-row seat.
Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania
Re-Posted May 20, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Australia’s center-right government won a surprise victory over the left. Voters backed the center-right government in a slowing economy for another three years and rejecting the opposition’s progressive agenda which has been really pretty out there at times. Despite trailing in most opinion polls for years, Scott Morrison’s Liberal-National coalition won attacking Labor’s pledge to take tougher action on climate change and strip tax perks from wealthy Australians. Many are calling Labour’s loss for its leader Bill Shorten, the shock of all time up there with the loss of Hillary Clinton because the polls just got it wrong again.
The Australian election was held today; voting is compulsory as everyone over the age 18 is required to vote; turnout was greater than 95%… and all the media and pollsters are stunned, shocked, jaws-agape, as the conservative coalition has received a stunning, unexpected, unanticipated victory.
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has won the election. Yes Alice, 2019 media in Australia look identical to media in the U.S. circa November 2016.
The economy, immigration and push-back against the insufferable climate-change nonsense appear to be the top issues that led to Morrison’s surprising win. None of the pollsters or media saw it coming. The BBC are stunned:
BBC – […] The final result of the election may not be known for some hours, but with more than 70% of votes counted the [Conservative] Coalition has won, or is ahead in, 74 seats in its quest for a 76-seat majority, with Labor on just 66 seats.
[…] Try finding someone who says they saw this result coming.
For well over two years, the coalition has trailed behind Labor in the opinion polls, and the assumption had been it would be Labor’s turn to govern.
But somehow Scott Morrison managed to turn things around at the 11th hour – and he did it largely on his own.
With some of his cabinet colleagues considered too toxic to appear in public on the campaign trail, ScoMo made this election about him, and his ability to be the trustworthy, daggy-dad Australia needed. (read more)
Labor leader Bill Shorten , who has led Labor since it lost office in 2013, conceded defeat and congratulated Morrison. Shorten’s losing moonbat platform was centered on creating a “fairer society”, similar to the social justice movement in the far-left U.S. Democrat party.
The labor movement planned to increase taxes on the wealthy and bring social justice demands to central government. Their agenda was counting on strong support from college-aged students and climate change activists. However, the majority of Australians saw the predictable economic damage that was certain from the proposals to raise taxes and institute the Australian version of the Green New Deal.
Australian left-wing media is going bananas….
The progressive movement is crying in the streets.