Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles
Re-Posted Sep 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, I have followed your Global Market Watch and it is really amazing. I notice on IPE gas it came up and warned it was about to breakout to the upside. You said this is purely a pattern recognition system. Are there patterns that precede events and this is what your model is picking up on?
ANSWER: In many fields there are these sudden Phase Transitions which are extreme events. I have explained that sailors always told of rogue waves that rise up from calm waters and sink ships. The rogue wave appears out of nowhere in the eternal sea of global economics just as it does the oceans of the world. They are caused by the synchronization of many trends suddenly coming together to produce a giant wave.
There is an instability inside a gas turbine that suddenly appears, or a sudden extinction of a previous ecosystems – mass extinctions of which there have been five so far with another one due probably at the end of the next 309.6 year cycle in the 2300-2400 time period.
These extreme Phase Transitions or extreme events occur without warning to the untrained eye. It’s often impossible to predict when such bursts of instability will strike in markets where there are a huge amount of variables from news to players from a human perspective. The GMW identifies key patterns that precede an extreme event. The framework is being applied to all markets and economies and allows us to see things through complexity that the human eye will never see.