Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Dec 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You have said you have backtested your ECM into ancient times. Have these cycles been consistent? Have you arrived at a conclusion as to why?
Thank you. It was a great WEC. I for one always lean a lot.
ANSWER: Yes, I have reconstructed the monetary system of the world using the coinage so it is possible to actually backtest to see how these cycles have prevailed for millennia. The debasement of the silver coinage. The reforms of Diocletian and how the bronze follis declined once more.
No matter where you look, you see the steady unfolding of a decline and fall of the monetary system. These people who think a return to the gold standard will somehow prevent corruption or inflation are just living in a dream world. When money was just a coin, inflation still existed. You cannot escape this – EVER!
My next book is to get this out ASAP. Here, I have backtested the model and I believe that this incorporates everything from climate, war, and human nature that is behind the rise and fall of civilizations throughout history. Naturally, academics will be against it because they do not want to accept that there is any regularity to the business cycle for that means that government does NOT have the power to manipulate society as Marx and Keynes told them.
We are clearly flirting with the end times insofar as the decline & fall of Western Culture. I have traced this back to ancient times and its regularity has been impressive.
Even the collapse of the Bronze Age Civilization was two times the 31.4-year intervals of the 51.6-year wave. You can feel it. We are tearing everything that held society together apart at the seams. Civilizations rise when everyone benefits. They fall when one group begins to exploit another. That is what is taking place right now.