Posted originally on Mar 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
According to the Treasury Department, America’s deficit surpassed the $1 trillion mark this February. The deficit reached $307 billion for the month, marking a 2.5X increase on a monthly basis and 3.7% higher on an annual basis.
The deficit for the first five months of FY25 hit $1.15 trillion, a $318 billion increase (+38%) from the same period last year. America is paying $74 billion simply to finance this debt, with interest payments over the FY rising to $396 billion.
The deficit under the last three years of Biden-Harris grew from $1.38 trillion to $1.83 trillion as the public sector and government spending multiplied. Trump is attempting to make a dent in government spending through DOGE, but he is hitting America’s revenue with these tariffs. Both measures have only just begun and have not made a major impact on the economy yet.
Deficits no longer create economic growth; instead, they now consume it. Each additional dollar of debt generates diminishing returns, meaning the cost of servicing this debt will soon exceed the nation’s ability to function without radical restructuring.
Investors and global capital are beginning to take notice. Foreign demand for US debt has waned, with China and Japan significantly reducing their Treasury holdings. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is trapped. If it raises rates to combat inflation, it exacerbates the debt crisis. If it lowers rates, it risks unleashing another speculative bubble, but central banks tend to lower rates when they see a recession looming. There is no way out without structural reform.
Centinel2012 