Tag Archives: 22.46 year magnetic cycle

Jan 12 2019

Magnetic Poles Are Moving Rapidly as Never Before – Precursor to a Pole Shift?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature

Re-Posted Jan 12, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

The magnetic poles on the Sun flip about every 11 years. Since nobody lives there, we really have no idea what the effects would be. On Earth, the major pole shifts that are permanent tend to be in the 720,000 years range. So once again, there was nobody around to record what really happens. I have previously warned that the North Magnetic Pole was moving away from Canada and headed in the opposite direction toward Europe.

For most of the 1900s, the physical North Pole was moving westwards around 10 cm each year towards Canada’s Hudson Bay. Then all of a sudden, in 2000, it changed direction moving 75 degrees eastwards and began moving east at a rate of around 17 cm annually. Nobody has ever witnessed such a change. This is completely unprecedented! Now the North Magnetic Pole is moving rapidly and erratically. Today it is now moving at a pace of 55km PER YEAR!!!!! This is creating a real crisis because the entire world GPS system was based upon a fairly stationary locate for the North Pole.

The North Pole was previously in Hudson Bay about 54,000 until 48,000 years ago at 60 N and 83 W. Perhaps it is like lightning and just never strikes twice in the same spot. Now it is instead moving toward the British Isles according to NASA. Magnetic poles are defined in different ways but are commonly understood as positions on the Earth’s surface where the geomagnetic field is vertical. These north and south positions, called dip poles, do not need to be opposite of each other. In 1831, James Clark Ross located the north dip pole position in northern Canada. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) tracked the North Magnetic Pole, which is slowly drifting across the Canadian Arctic, by periodically carrying out magnetic surveys to reestablish the Pole’s location from 1948 to 1994. An international collaboration, led by a French fundraising association, Poly-Arctique, and involving NRCan, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, and Bureau de Recherche Geologique et Miniere, added two locations of the North Magnetic Pole in 2001 and 2007. The most recent survey determined that the Pole is moving approximately north-northwest at 55 km per year.

First of all, there are two types of pole shifts. While the MAJOR pole shifts appear to be 720,000-year cycles, there are also what are known as excursions. The last “excursion” took place around 41,000 years ago and it was also associated with an Ice Age. This excursion was, in fact, a Global Event from all the data and these tend to be just short-term flips that are not permanent. Factoring in that data with the broader more permanent reversals warns that we are potentially in line for such a major event and it may, in fact, line up with the Economic Confidence Model come 2032. This could be an explanation for the extremely cold winters since 2015.

A pole shift can be far more rapid than previously anticipated. I believe that people prefer to assume uniformity rather than a catastrophe. A stalagmite-based paleomagnetic record of the post-Blake excursion reveals details of repeated polarity drifts have occurred during periods of low geomagnetic field intensity at 100 thousand years before present. One surprisingly abrupt centennial reversal transition occurred in 144,000 provides unprecedented evidence that raises fundamental questions about the speed of geomagnetic field shifts. Such rapid polarity changes could severely affect satellites and human society in the future if the current geomagnetic field intensity continues to decrease. This sudden rapid movement of 55km a year may be a warning of such a pending shift becoming imminent.

We know that 120,000 years ago the North Pole was in the territory of Yukon in Canada at 63 N and 135 W; then it went to the Greenland Sea at 72 N and 10 E about 84,000 years ago, moved from 54,000 until 48,000 years ago and settle in the middle of Hudson Bay at 60 N and 83 W; it rested there for 30,000 years, then wandered once again from about 18,000 to about 12,000 years ago when it came to its present location. However, there are actually four poles, which most people are never taught in school. Former NASA engineer Maurice Chatelain (1988) argued that during the Hudson Bay period (48,000 to 18,000 years ago) the equator was in fact 30 degrees further south in South America. It most likely passed through central Chile and Argentina. Antarctica was most likely free of all ice. That could explain the existence of the map of Antartica without ice that has been found.

This rapid movement is striking alarm bells everywhere from a navigational perspective. During the past 150 years, the pole shift has been in the same direction. The most astonishing fact is that since 2000, the magnetic North Pole has shifted nearly half of the total distance of the past 50 years! In other words, the pole shift has apparently picked up speed so much so that they have had to re-calibrate airports and their GPS signals so planes can still find them. This rapid movement of 55km a year can really alter transportation.

But the directional change is even more alarming for Europe. The summer in Europe barely saw many real scorching hot days but the winters are getting colder. In 2012, even the waterways in Venice were icing over. Germany relies upon its canal system to move goods and agriculture. In 2012, the canals froze. The canals in the Netherlands were not freezing during the winter during the global warming period. That changed in 2009. Hamburg was frozen to the bone in 2010.

They are calling 2017 the Year without an Arctic Summer.  The Greenland Ice Sheet gained near-record amounts of ice. Very little melting has occurred this summer. The Canadian Coast Guard reported that the Atlantic Ice in Canada was increasing in the winter of 2018. The extreme cold temperatures and the high winds have been combining to expand the Arctic ice this season. There is a natural cycle to this and they have reported that the seasonal “freeze up” is occurring three to four weeks ahead of normal and above the 30-year average. This winter is once again extremely cold. It has only been in the 60/70s here in Tampa and the same is true in Abu Dhabi. If next year 2019/2020 is colder still, this will be the fourth year and at then we would decline at a bare minimum very steeply into 2021/2022, where our models on markets are predicting a shocking event.

The migration of the magnetic poles could be a major factor in creating these cold winters. If the former NASA engineer Maurice Chatelain is correct that the equator was in fact 30 degrees further south in South America between 48,000 and 13,000 years ago passing through central Chile and Argentina with Antarctica being ice-free, then I guess I was wrong and did not move far enough south.

We do know that the Sahara Desert was once lush, tropical, and full of animals 6,000 years ago. There is debated over the true origin of the Sphinx in Egypt. Many consider that it pre-dates the Egyptian culture dating as far back as 10,000BC when a Lion would have faced the constellation, Leo. If Chatelain is correct, then perhaps the movement in the pole also altered the climate dramatically sending the equator 30 degrees lower. It is not likely that we will all just die because of such a pole shift. There are no mass distinctions that have been discovered less than 50,000 years ago. Perhaps the dinosaurs were the victims of a pole shift that caused a volcanic winter or there was an asteroid that hit the Earth according to abundant geological evidence that was about 10 km (6 miles) in diameter and struck the Earth about 65 million years ago. This probably killed roughly 3/4 of all the species that existed at that time. So barring a strike by an asteroid, a pole shift does not appear to create a mass extinction.

Jan 10 2019

Prof Don Easterbrook Crashes the Global Warming Party


Published on Nov 19, 2017

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Professor Emeritus Don Easterbrook’s eye-opening talk to the Washington State Senate committee on Climate Change 26/3/2013. This is a classic! Don J. Easterbrook Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University crashes the party of the Global Warmists! Patreon https://www.patreon.com/1000Frolly Category Science & Technology License Creative Commons Attribution license
Jan 9 2019

Rigging the Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Jan 9, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I really want to thank you. You have opened the door to show that there is a hidden order that the great unwashed are unable to see. Not only did you say the Dow was not breaking out at the October high, but you even got the day of the low on Dec 26 correct and called for a bounce into early January. Do we have to wait for the turn in the ECM now since the Dow did close below 23360 at year end?

JS

ANSWER: That was a minor signal at year end. It served to put us on notice that the slingshot to the upside will be extended. That is very good news for I was concerned that such a move would have peaked by 2020/2021. It appears we have been granted a huge reprieve in that regard and we will be looking at profound events unfolding ahead. I gave the Bullish Reversals for the bounce on the Private Blog. They are capping the market for just now.

I am preparing the 2019 Outlook Report now. We have to look at all the markets and how they closed to catch a glimmer of the future behind that door. The great unwashed, sadly to say, will wake up. We are beginning to see that with the Yellow Vest movement spreading worldwide. There will always be people you just hate me because they have been wrong. They prefer to blame me than open their eyes and actually see how everything is connected. They are idiots and exactly like the bankers who paid bribes to Russian officials to rig the markets and when they collapsed, they blamed me instead of admitting you cannot rig any market to move in only one direction. That is good when they hate me for forecasting. It demonstrates and proves that there is always two sides to a market so no worries about everyone following just one model – that will NEVER happen.

 

Jan 8 2019

Europe Inundated by Snow Down to Greece & Harvard Study Shows Oceans Are Getting Colder


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 8, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

This winter is once again extremely brutal in Europe. Extremely heavy snow has fallen as far south as Greece in the range of even 3 to 5 feet in various places. This is the third year of extreme cold in Europe which has been fueling more resentment about global warming taxes. Once again, Europe has been thrown into economic chaos for much of the region is not able to cope with snow lacking the historical experience.

Meanwhile, scientists have revealed that the oceans are still getting colder at deeper levels in a slow-moving trend that was set in motion by the last Little Ice Age. The idea that the oceans have been retaining the heat so that is why the planet has not warmed up as forecast 30 years ago flies in the face of those ideas as well.

Categories: Climate
Jan 2 2019

Climate Change & the Blame Game has been going on Since the 1890s


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 2, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I really get annoyed by people who say well it has been warm here so what happens elsewhere is irrelevant. They are idiots and cannot see the whole and just want to blame humans for everything. I can see how our situation is hopeless when it comes to climate change.

All the best

JS

ANSWER: Very true. I got one email saying even though the death toll in Wales is double that of the previous year from extreme cold, it was warmer here in Canada so you are just wrong about everything. Such people are unable to divorce themselves from their bias. We have a serious climate change unfolding that cyclically is on time. Ever since 1895, the media has alternated reporting between global cooling and warming scares and many times they have even been overlapping. Here are accounts from the press reporting both global cooling and warming between 1955 and 1961. From 1895 until the 1930s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950s until the 1970s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.

Then we have the diehard Global Warming crowd who refuse to ever consider that just maybe they may be wrong and are doing exactly the same thing I encountered when doing research on the Great Depression. Back then, the claimed that the DUST BOWL permanently destroyed the “Middle West” and that all the soil blew away so there would NEVER AGAIN be farming in America. ALL the government “expert advice” blamed the catastrophe on mechanized agriculture because tractors had been in use for only a couple of decades. They theorized how the tractors caused the Dust Bowl and this became very popular. The government even put out films calling it the Plow that Broke the Plains. But the old-time farmers remembered the droughts of the 1890s. There had been 10 years of rain in the Midwest and the forecasts at that time saw no change in sight.

The mechanism of plowing increased the yield dramatically and this contributed to the decline in employment in the Agricultural industry from 70% of the Civil Workforce in 1850 to 40% by 1900 and then 3% by 1980. The price of what declined dramatically from World War I into 1932. Severe drought hits the midwestern and southern plains. As the crops die, the ‘black blizzards” began which is more commonly known to history as the Dust Bowl. It lasted for 8.6 years until the rains returned in 1939.

By December 1935, there was a meeting in Pueblo, Colorado, where experts then estimate that 850,000,000 tons of topsoil had blown off the Southern Plains during the course of one year. They forecast that should the drought continue, the total area affected would increase from 4,350,000 acres to 5,350,000 acres in the spring of 1936. They warned that the damage was permanent. To try to intervene, the C.H. Wilson of the Resettlement Administration proposed buying up 2,250,000 acres and retiring it from cultivation.

In February 1936, the mass migration out of the Midwest created what were called hobos without money or a job. The Los Angeles Police Chief James E. Davis sent 125 policemen to patrol the borders of Arizona and Oregon to keep “undesirables” out of California. As a result, the American Civil Liberties Union sued the city. Even the Democrats forcible deported Mexicans during the Dust Bowl. The Mexican Repatriation was a mass deportation of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans from the United States which went into 1936. The estimates of how many were forcibly deported range from 400,000 to 2,000,000. Yet, it was a sort of ethnic cleansing for an estimated 60% of those deported were actually born in the United States.

Climate Change is a natural event because everything has a cycle even weather. It was the 8.6-year drought that created the Dust Bowl, not tractors. Here we are once again blaming soccer moms driving their kids to school for climate change once again.

As always – facts mean nothing. The majority of people lack the ability to be unbiased. They simply believe what they want to believe and will never change.

 

Jan 1 2019

Jet Stream Exaggerations


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Jan 1, 2019 by Martin Armstrong

 

We have to understand that the Jetstream itself is extremely dynamic. It has been dipping very low and as I reported last winter, it even snowed in Tallahassee in northern Florida for the first time since the Blizzard of 1899. This is causing some very diverse outcomes. In Sweden that had one of the hottest summers on record. I was in Bavaria in August and likewise, it was extremely hot. The buildings generally did not have air conditioning because they never needed it.

On the other hand, in Ukraine where it is usually very hot at that time of year, it remained very cool. In North America, it all depends where you are. Some parts of Canada is warm, and others are unusually cold. The Jet Stream is becoming very exaggerated in its dips. This is why last year the crops froze in Spain creating a shortage of vegetables in Europe. Of course, we have the diehard people who claim just because where they live it is warm so it must be global warming and anyone who disagrees with that are just wrong. They refuse to even look around the world that exists beyond their front doo

Dec 30 2018

The Coming Mini Ice Age & Cyclical Movement of the Tropics Belt Itself


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Dec 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

We have the most sophisticated and diverse client base than probably any institution covering more than 100 countries. Our business has been constructed upon one bedrock foundation – unbiased computer analysis. These forecasts are NEVER my personal opinion. There are plenty of people who seek to argue but fail to understand it is NOT ME! Just because someone claims to be a scientist and states for or against Global Warming, really does not add up to a lot for just as when you go visit a doctor, they always tell you to get a second “opinion” because that is all you are getting.

Previously, I have reported that NASA confirmed we are going into a cooling period – not warming. They have put out a forecast of declining sunspot activity. Now NASA has come out confirming what our computer has been forecasting. They have reported that as the sun is experiencing a rapid decline in sunspots, it is also dimming in brightness or energy output. NASA’s Spaceweather station has recorded during 2017, 96 days (27%) of observing the sun have been completely absent of sunspots.

While NASA has now confirmed that the outer atmosphere is getting cooler. In fact, one of the top NASA scientists has broken camp and warned that the surface temperature of the sun has collapsed so much, he fears a new Ice Age is upon us. Meanwhile, this has been the COLDEST Thanksgiving in 150 years! Interestingly, however, is that this sudden sharp decline in the energy output of the sun coincided with the 2015.75 turning point of the Economic Confidence Model.

I have previously warned that if this trend continues during the next winter, then we have exceeded any short-term reactionary trend and the weather appears poised to continue to get colder going into the distant future. Socrates was projecting that the peak on this cycle aligned with the ECM 2015.75. This is a Longitudinal Cycle, not Transverse. That means peak to bottom varies. This short-term wave should be a 13-year decline from 2015 making it 2028 initially. After that, if we see colder winters beyond 2028, then the next low will be with the peak in the ECM 2032. There is a SERIOUS RISK that we are looking at the final low coming in during the period of 2046.

It appears we are plunging now into a deep mini ice age. There is just no way we can reverse this trend no matter how much the government regulates or increases the taxes. For the next 20 years at a minimum it’s going to get colder and colder on average. There is a very HIGH PROBABILITY that we are declining for 31 years from 2015.

What people fail to understand is that the entire weather system of our planet is extremely dynamic. Research has traced the north-south shifts of the northern-most edge of the tropics back 800 years, which was conducted by the University of Arizona-led international team. They have mapped out the fact that the Tropic Belt is also subject to cyclical movement. I have reported that in ancient times, the region we call the Sahara Desert was lush and green and there were cave drawings showing herds of animals in the region. The research has revealed that indeed the Tropic Belt has moved upward and downward over the centuries and the research has documented where it has moved for the last 800 years.

The University of Arizona wrote: “From 1568 to 1634, the tropics expanded to the north, the team found. That time period coincides with severe droughts and other disruptions of human societies, including the collapse of the Ottoman empire in Turkey, the end of the Ming Dynasty in China and near abandonment of the Jamestown Colony in Virginia…”

The Tropic Belt has been gradually moving northward since 1970. There is debate over what is even causing that. The data we hope to also run through our model to see if that also aligns with the future forecasts on climate change our model has been projecting. This too may be yet another confirming link in the outcome we must face.

 

Dec 28 2018

Death Toll from Cold Doubles & Its Not Over Yet


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Dec 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

As the fake academics keep pushing the Global Warming scenarios because that justifies more taxes and they are rewarded with endless grants, I have warned that it is Global Cooling we should be concerned about. Particularly the elderly should really try to relocate to warmer territory. The death rate caused by the extreme cold that has been taking place since 2015 is now officially twice that of the year before. In Britai9n, they call it winter deaths and in Wales, the death toll has DOUBLE during 2017-18 – rising from 1,850 the year before to 3,400 and winter is not finished yet.

I cannot stress enough, if we see next year colder than this year’s winter season, get out before it is too late. This is already the sharpest decline in three years on record. If I did not move, perhaps our computers would have figured out a way to call a mover to come to get them on their own. If you have a source of trees and an ax, and the youth required, then good on y

Dec 28 2018

Comets as Omens & Star of Bethlehem


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion

Re-Posted Dec 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; The ancients seem to have attributed the appearance of a comet to important events like the death of Julius Caesar and the birth of Christ. Did the Romans record comets on their coinage and omens of the future? Was either the famous Haley’s Comet? Some say the Start of Bethlehem was Haley’s Comet.

Thank you and have a Merry Christmas

PD

ANSWER: Yes. The appearance of a comet at the time of Caesar’s death promoted his divinity for political purposes. His nephew Octavian, later to be given the name Augustus by the Senate (27BC-14AD), issued coins with the comet that appeared at the time of Caesar’s death with the legend: DIVVS IVLIVS (Divine Julius). This was self-serving and used as justification of his rule as the first Emperor of Rome beginning the Imperial Era.

Halley’s Comey has been recorded as early as 467BC by the Greeks. The Chinese chroniclers also mention a comet during this year. However, the Chinese astronomer Shiji also recorded its appearance in 240BC. The Babylonians recorded its appearance in of 164BC in two clay tablets in the British Museum. Again, the Babylonians recorded its appearance once more in 87BC. It was this appearance that lasted for about one month was celebrated on the coinage of Tigranes the Great, an Armenian king who is depicted on coins with a crown and a curved tail. It was portrayed as ushering in a New Era of the brilliant King of Kings. Tigranes II the Great issued the earliest coin depicting Haley’s Comet which is represented by the star in his crown.

Haley’s Comet appeared around 12 BC and it was recorded in the Book of Han by Chinese astronomers of the Han Dynasty. They tracked it from August through October during 12BC. According to the Roman historian Cassius Dio, a comet appeared almost suspended over Rome for several days at the time of the death of Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa who was Augustus’ close friend. He issued a coin depicting Agrippa with a comet about his head.

There has been considerable debate about whether Halley’s Comet was also the Star of Bethlehem. The appearance in 12 BC, is not that distant from the conventionally assigned date of the birth of Jesus Christ which has a range of 6AD to 4AD. This is based mostly on the biblical story of Herod the Great. Not long before Herod’s death, which is generally attributed to have occurred in 4BC but even that is in dispute.

Referencing the Haley Comet connection, some theologians and astronomers have also to suggested that this might explain the biblical story of the Star of Bethlehem and provide a more documented confirmation of his birth coinciding with the time of the death of Agrippa. However, there are also records of other comets that appeared closer to the date of Jesus’ birth.  In a 1991 article in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, astronomer Colin Humphreys proposed that the fabled star was actually a slow-moving comet, which Chinese observers recorded in 5 BC.

Then there is a third theory put forth in 2008 by the astronomer Dave Reneke who argued that Jesus was born in the summer. The Star of Bethlehem, Reneke argued that the Star of Bethlehem may actually have been not a comet at all by Venus and Jupiter coming together to form a bright light in the sky. He used computer models to determine that this extremely rare event occurred on June 17, in the year 2 BC and would have appeared as a bright star for that one moment. Others have argued that a very similar conjunction took place between Saturn and Jupiter during October of 7 BC. Then we have others who disagree and say that Jesus must have been born during the spring, based on the biblical narrative that shepherds were watching over their flocks in the fields. That, they argue, takes place during the Spring and not winter.

The Jewish historian Josephus tells us:

“So Herod, having survived the slaughter of his son [Antipater] five days, died, having reigned thirty-four years, since he had caused Antigonus to be slain, and obtained his kingdom; but thirty-seven years since he had been made king by the Romans.” [War of the Jews, 1:33:8 (665); cf. Antiquities of the Jews 17:8:1 (191)]

Therefore, Josephus is providing key target dates for Herod’s death correlating three events:

Five days after the execution of his son Antipater.
Thirty-four years after he “obtained his kingdom” referring to his conquest of Jerusalem
Thirty-seven years after “he had been made king by the Romans.”

Now, for more than 100 years, the question of when Herod the Great died has been dominated by a proposal by the German academic Emil Schurer. It was Schurer who argued that Herod died in 4 BC, and this view has remained the accepted date in scholarly circles. Therefore, if we look at Josephus, it would make more sense that Herod died in 1 BC based on the amount of time he served after being appointed king by the Romans. There was also a lunar eclipse that occurred before Passover in 1BC. We can even focus in more specifically, for Herod the Great would have died between January 10, 1 B.C. (the date of the lunar eclipse) and April 11, 1 B.C. (the date of Passover). If we take Josephus’ clue of the conquest of Jerusalem, then we would arrive at either 2BC or 1 BC based on the amount of time he served after his conquest.  I would not assume it likely that Haley’s Comet appeared for the birth of Christ.

As I have stated, December 25th was the fest of Sol which was transformed into Christmas. What we do know is that the oldest existing record of a Christmas celebration is found in a Roman almanac that tells of a Christ’s Nativity festival led by the church of Rome dating back in 336 AD.

Dec 27 2018

EU Demand a 37.5% Reduction in CO2 Output from Cars by 2030


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

Re-Posted Dec 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The EU has shocked the auto industry and came out based upon this new round of forecasts that humans will be extinct by 2050. Cars must now become considerably more climate-friendly by 2030. The carbon dioxide emissions of new cars must fall by 37.5% compared to 2021. The negotiators of the EU member states and the European Parliament agreed on this compromise on in Brussels last week.

With regard to light commercial vehicles, a CO2 reduction of 31% was agreed upon. For both vehicle classes, however, they also imposed a reduction of 15% must be achieved by 2025 as the first stage. This agreement actually comes as a surprise to many. The requirements are far more drastic than the car industry and the German government originally wanted. Naturally, Germany was not looking for such a reduction and were hoping to cap it at 30%. But all the extinction forecasts led the alarmist to demand 40% so the 37.5% was a compromise that was substantially above the level German expected.