Tag Archives: FED

Jul 13 2017

City of Seattle Runs Out of Things to Tax – Now Wants to Impose Income Tax


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Jul 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Seattle City Council has run out of things to tax so they have unanimously voted to impose an income tax upon the “rich”, and of course we all know that will eventually move to include everyone. The city claims it will raise $140 million and it will cost $10-13 million to set up, and you can bet that does not include pensions for the new employees. The slogan is “Time for the rich to pay their fair share.” Of course, what is fair? If someone does not use any public services, then paying incomes tax is still fair? Americans have to pay income taxes if they live overseas and use nothing. Fairness is never judges upon what someone uses from the government, but when other people want to rob those who have more then it is suddenly fair. To a homeless person, someone earning just $25,000 a year is rich. It is always relative.

Jul 11 2017

Gold


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

We have not yet broken gold for all the people writing in. So far we have elected three Weekly Bearish Reversals from the July 2016 high in gold and three Monthly Bearish Reversals. We have elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals from the high in June and fallen into the target week of July 10th and last week was the Panic Cycle. We now look to the week of July 24th for the next turning point.

We are getting ready to relaunch Socrates. This is what it wrote for the Detailed Analysis today:

“Focusing on a trading perspective, the market has declined after making its high back in July 2016 at 137750. We did elect 3 Monthly Bearish Reversals warning that we have a more serious bearish shift in trend in play. Subsequently, we have formed a low at 112430 during December 2016 from which we have seen a bounce for the past 6 months. We have also elected 2 Monthly Bullish Reversals from the reaction low of December 2016 and we have now dropped back penetrating last month’s low implying we will retest support. A month-end closing below last month’s low of 123650 will be a technical warning of weakness ahead. Any long position should use a protective sell stop on a monthly closing basis at 121420. Keep in mind this is just a trading suggestion given it is merely a trading observation rule. Buy or sell signals take place on Reversals and Cycles. “

Categories: Gold
Jul 11 2017

The Pension Crisis – & – The Crash & Burn


Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Jul 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: 

Hi Marty –

Question:

You have blogged about the pension crisis

and how Illinois and California on the brink of bamkruptcy.

Does this mean that other states which you don’t
mention, like Florida, Texas, and New York, are financially
sound and are going to be able to pay out pensions to their
retirees for the next 20 -30 years?

Thanks for being the main source of “real” information.

Sincerely….Paul

ANSWER: By no means are other states safe. The problem has been that government pretends that socialism is to take care of the poor when in fact they have their hand in the cookie jar before anyone else. The crisis stems from the fact that they have been giving themselves pensions with outrageous benefits like healthcare for life in many states which often includes their family.

The way states have operated (internationally) is that they simply assumed that there was a never-ending bucket of taxpayers to squeeze for money. The problem is that the population growth has declined, the pensions systems have been a Ponzi schemes from day-one, and they are running out of other people’s money.

All the studies show that the Baby Boomers counted upon government and do not have enough saved for retirement. The average person has just $300,000 tucked away. The low interest rates have killed their profits and most have not yet returned to the stock market after losses from 2007-2009. Everything has been destroyed by low interest rates to save banks at the expense of pension funds and private investment. The public has been brainwashed to think that government debt is “safe” when it is the most risky in the field. They have not invested wisely because most remain ignorant of how markets even function. Nothing can be sustained going forward under this model. Even Draghi in Europe now realizez that there is a pension crisis and he is really to blame for 10 years of low to zero interest rates that have utterly failed to save the economy.

This is the Sovereign Debt Crisis. It is inevitable and irreversible. The Solution I have put forth is really the only way out to prevent complete civil meltdown.  But it is unlikely that any such Solution will be adopted until we actually experience the Crash and Burn. That seems to be starting in 2018.

The Best advice is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Under no circumstances ASSUME that any government pension will actually be paid

Jul 10 2017

Germany Pensions System Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Jul 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The pension system in Germany has serious shortcomings. (Photo: dpa)

The German publication DWN has come out and warned that the German Pensions system is collapsing. They wrote:

The core problem of the German economy and society is miserable demography. A positive development, namely the increasing longevity of the population, is an extremely negative groundbreaking, namely a small number of children. This is reflected in one of the lowest birth rates in the world – and this has been the case for decades. The record-breaking birth rate is by no means rooted in a biological, but in deeper social causes and inadequate policies at different stages. One consequence is a pension system that is not sustainably financed , because the ratio of contributors and receivers will drastically deteriorate. 

The very design of pensions has been universal. They assumed that population would always increase and thus pensions would be funded by taxing the current generation to pay for the previous. The declining birthrate and the increase in longevity has blown out the pensions systems on a global scale. In the case of Germany, this is a primary reason behind accepting refugees with hopes of making up the decline in the birth rate. The problem has been the lack of a desire to assimilate when we are looking at 70% of refugees are males and are really just economic migrants lacking skills and language.

Jul 10 2017

Merkel’s Failed G20 Summit


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Jul 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Merkel chaired the G20 summit and she completely and utterly failed to lead G20 to a successful conclusion. Well of course, Merkel lost control of the streets of Hamburg, which looked more like a civil war challenging even her authority. However, Merkel thought she could score a major diplomatic triumph be getting everyone together to gang-up on Trump over the climate accord. Her own industries are yelling she will cost a tremendous amount of jobs pushing her climate agenda forward. What took place was that not merely was she unable to intimidate Trump, but China also insisted on being able to expand its carbon energy use agreeing with Trump.

Merkel has been unable to win an election ever reaching a majority of the popular vote. She has been Chancellor only by forming a coalition government with the agreement pf the SPD. The upcoming election shows that Merkel will once again fail to win a majority vote.

Merkel’s primary policy of promoting an attack upon Global Warming is to eliminate carbon fuels altogether. Meanwhile, Europe is unable to achieve a trade deal with the USA while Trump is on fast track to cut a trade deal with the UK. All thinks considered, Merkel’s G20 has been a complete failure on every level.

Jul 10 2017

German Secretary Economics Warns Low Interest Rates Have Failed


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Jul 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The German Secretary General of the Economic Council of the CDU, Wolfgang Steiger,  has highlighted the growing economic crisis in Europe. The negative interest rates of Draghi and the ECB have totally failed. He has pointed out that despite various EU stress tests for banks, time and again they continue to fail. He has stress himself that this does not strengthen the confidence in the rules or Europe. He has come out and bluntly states that ONLY reforms will work, not low interest rates.

We are looking at a very serious crisis unfolding in 2018. So get ready to rock-and-roll. We will be addressing this upcoming crisis in the EU at the July 22nd, 2017 German Seminar.

Jul 7 2017

Country Risk & How it is Critical to Investment Flows


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law

Re-Posted Jul 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Martin:
How does this affect cash flow to and within the USA? (China Bond market)
Rich
ANSWER: It does not alter anything just yet. Most of the capital outflow from China has been its own people trying to get cash out. They were using BitCoin to accomplish that.
This is a first step in the process. It will take time to develop and the next step will be to maintain a stable and important rule of law. In order to attract capital, there must be a stable and honest rule of law. Once the rule of law crumbles into bias and corruption as we see today, this is part of the risk of investment. Edward Gibbon wrote in his classic, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:

“…the intolerable weight of taxes, rendered still more oppressive by the intricate or arbitrary modes of collection; the obscurity of numerous and contradictory laws; the tedious and expensive forms of judicial proceedings; the partial administration of justice; and the universal corruption, which increased the influence of the rich, and aggravated the misfortunes of the poor. “

Book III, Chapter 34

Country Risk is a critical part of international investment. In assisting international companies with decisions where to locate plants or open up operations, the first criteria is always “Country Risk” which is all about the stability of the Rule of Law. How can you invest in any country if there is no reliable legal system to secure contracts or property?

Contract Law began in Babylon. Hammurabi’s legal code required all agreements to be written down. This put an end to false claims. When we talk about investing in Europe, we do not even consider “Country Risk” because it is assumed the Rule of Law is stable.

Consequently, China will surpass the United States and the West because our Rule of Law is collapsing. Courts rule in favor of government routinely and once that happens, no property is secure any more. They are just confiscating cash presuming it is criminal in some way be it taxes or otherwise and they do not have to prove anything. This is demonstrating that the West will not be able to survive long-term without a security of property. Hence, you can see it coming. If China respects property rights, then capital will migrate to Asia and leave the West due to the lack of a Rule of Law

Jul 6 2017

Illinois – Poster Child for the Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

Re-Posted Jul 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Illinois House had voted 72-45 to pass a 32% income tax hike as government refuses to address the real issue of a never-ending need for more and more tax revenue to keep state employees rolling in their pensions. The governor vetoed the tax increase and he was overridden.

There is absolutely no hope for Illinois. Just sell its debt for there is no long-term fix for this state or any state for that matter. We are facing a major Sovereign Debt Crisis at the state and municipal level that will eventually bring down governments on a wholesale basis.

The policies of just tax’em til they die and they tax their heirs is coming to an end. Governments will collapse and the only solution is to limit government by a new constitution that it may not consume greater than 15% of GDP on a federal, state, and local level combined. Employment should primarily be outsourced and private entities should bid to run various departments. That will eliminate government pensions, which is the monumental source of the real crisis.

We can do this, but we have to crash and burn first. Government will NEVER simply surrender power without a fight.

 

Jul 5 2017

Arrogance of California Knows No Bounds Governor Brown Still Committing Treason against the Constitution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Jul 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

The Governor of California is just insane and out of control. Besides the boasting that California is its own country free to enter into treaties with Europe against the Constitution, now Governor Brown is restricting the freedom of movement of its citizens creating a list of States within the USA that California is imposing a travel ban. Here we have Governor Brown banning travel for which he had the audacity to criticize President Trump. Brown either belongs in a prison for Treason or an insane asylum. The jury should decide. This man is unqualified to be governor and is dangerous.

In January, California Attorney General Xavier Becerra announced the state would no longer fund employee travel to four states – Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina and Tennessee. Now, with Alabama, Kentucky, South Dakota and Texas added to the list after each passed laws California officials described as discriminatory towards the LGBT community. So in other words, any state that disagrees with California should be put on the their Travel Ban.

Freedom of movement under United States Constitution is governed by the Privileges and Immunities Clause which states, “The Citizens of each State shall be entitled to all Privileges and Immunities of Citizens in the several States.” This issue was decided back in 1823 in an appellate decision Corfield v. Coryell, 6 Fed. Cas. 546 (1823). The freedom of movement for American citizens has been judicially recognized as a fundamental Constitutional right.

Additionally, the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, empowers Congress “to regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several States” not Governor Brown. Once again, he is usurping federal powers and overruling the Constitution. He is simply out of control.

Let’s put this in perspective. He yells that Russia deprived him of Hillary because they were trying to “influence” the election. Well, imposing sanctions on other states who disagree with California is trying to also “influence” the people of those states to kneel before the altar of Governor Brown who seems to want to dictate to the world how they should live. Governor Brown is imposing sanctions on other states for disagreeing with the will of California which is the same policy of the West imposing never ending sanctions on Russia for taking back the Crimea, which was their’s to begin with? California has no right whatsoever to impose any sanction upon another state within the USA nor restrict the movement of any citizen to travel among the states. He cannot impose any sanction against another state for disagreeing with his flavor of laws. His view that other states are anti-Lesbian/Gay infringes upon their freedom of religion when they do not outright discriminate against the LGBT community.

Governor Brown seems to have lost it. His arrogance is off the charts and this is just unacceptable. He is lucky I am not president. I would cut off all federal funding for California until they comply with the constitution.

What’s next? Governor Brown imposes requirements upon cars to be electric and bans all citizens from driving to California with a car that does not meet California standards in accord with Paris? Just secede, invite Hillary to be the President of California, and be done with it. Those who disagree with Brown’s politics, the West Coast of Florida  still has the sunsets, no income tax, and far less regulation.

Jul 5 2017

Just Give the Government Your Money & Shut-Up


Armstrong economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Jul 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Marty

I’m doing business w companies in Holland.

So I go there with a colleague to visit one of the factories outside Amsterdam. We rent a car and drive there. Everything is fine and all. No problems with traffic, finding our way or so …

After leaving Amsterdam back home it takes about 4-5 months we get a speeding ticket? We ask for proof us speeding, like a photo or so, but they do not even answer. It goes so far they send it to a collector agency here in Sweden and we call them asking for proof of some sort us speeding when driving in Holland. But they cannot help us. They say they only collect and if we will not pay they will register us in Sweden for this. So we pay. We do not want our business to get soiled.

After this it takes 6 months and we then get – from Holland – a speeding ticket for going the other way when driving to our business meeting???!

Obviously this is a scam!!! We did not pay and have no intention paying either.

So what do you think happens then? When going for a new business trip and we have a short stop at Schiphol airport – my colleague gets stopped in customs switching planes? (He was the one driving when we got the tickets) They arrested him for not paying the speeding ticket …. But luckily they let him go but said if he visited Holland again they would arrest him for sure and there would be a trial. So no business with Holland anymore. And no visits either.

Too bad ….

 

 

/C

 

ANSWER: Yes, the same process is happening in Italy, France, and Germany. It is indicative of governments going broke. They cannot see that they are destroying civilization because of their mismanagement.

These European governments are sending tickets with no explanation or proof and demanding fines of else. They are exploiting tourists and destroying their own vital business. Why travel on vacation to someplace you will be harassed? They turned over a ticket I got in Rome to a collection agency and I too told them no way. This is the biggest scam going on in Europe became they have speeding cameras and no police ever pull you over for anything. There is no explanation. No photo. No evidence. NOTHING! Just send us money or else they just threaten you with jail time and absolutely no proof of anything. They are far worse than the Mafia.

This is why I no longer recommend renting any car in Europe. It is just cheaper to hire a driver for a trip or use taxi/Uber. Then they are harassing Americans pulling you over looking for cash. In the late 1970s, I went through Checkpoint Charlie in Berlin. They forced you to buy East German marks at 1:1 with West German. Then you got into town and nobody you taken them. Even the government run hotel demanded West German marks.

I left with the same amount of East German marks I was forced to buy. I was just going to keep them as a reminder. Then trying to get back through Checkpoint Charlie, the last station of several they went through how much money you had on you. The woman pulled a rope and bell went off and two guards came and grabbed me by the arms and took me to a shed at the beginning. They took all my money and told me to sit. Waiting for over an hour, I got up and asked can I go. He then handed me a slip and said they only confiscate and I had to take that to the central bank the next day to get my money back. I then remarked – “And you say you are not capitalist?” I then had to start over and go through all the stages to get out. They kept the money.

Welcome to the new world we are emerging into. They are all the same. Just give them the money and shut-up.