Tag Archives: Illinois credit now “Junk”

Oct 14 2017

It’s Always About the Money


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

RE-Posted Oct 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

In Sweden, the government has realized that if fossil-fuel cars were to disappear, the government would lose around SEK 50 billion a year in tax revenues. Just like cigarettes, the government realized that stopping smoking is costly for them. So what did they do? They imposed taxes of e-cigarettes. And if everyone stopped e-cigarettes, they will probably have to tax air.

Sweden used the Global Warming issue to tax people driving cars to help the environment. But as soon as a tax is imposed, government becomes addicted to the revenue just like a drug addict. The purpose of the kilometer tax is to overcome the so-called Pajala / Stockholm syndrome. It will, therefore, be more expensive to drive a dirty car in the city’s congestion compared to a clean car in a rural area.

Europe is moving faster than North America towards an increasingly electrified fleet of cars. However, when fossil fuel-driven car traffic is decreasing supplanted by electric cars, the government starts to lose money. Sweden has authorized a new project that will last for two years. The goal is to develop a method for calculating a distance-based tax system so they can tax electric cars to compensate for their loss in revenue of the fossil-fuel cars.

It’s always about the money, wrapped in in some sort of noble pretense, to disguise the greedy intentions.

Oct 13 2017

The Political Turf War in Europe and why Britain is Considering Joining NAFTA


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

RE-Posted Oct 13, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; There is talk that Britain will join NAFTA rather than the EU. Does that make sense? What do you think?

ANSWER: The EU is in a death spiral. Every law they pass is to preserve their own power – not for the good of the people or Europe. Once again, the government solution always runs counter-trend to the Free Markets setting the stage for the next crisis. The EU banking rules allow them to just seize everything and shareholders get zero. This is what they did when Spain’s Banco Santander bought rival Banco Popular for €1. The bank which was valued in the collapse at €1.6 billion yet it was sold for €1. Now, banks are finding it extremely hard to raise new share capital. That will only result in more bank seizures. Hello! It would be nice to have someone in government with common sense.

Britain should run away from the EU and slam the door shut and then nailed it to be sure. The British should abandon the EU altogether and undeniably join the NAFTA trade agreement. If they do not, Britain will find itself being dragged down with the sinking ship.

A free trade agreement with the USA would be a slap in the face for the EU and even that will never cause the EU to look in the mirror. Like Hillary, they will blame everyone other than themselves.

The government data on British GDP clearly demonstrates that Britain has NOT benefited from joining the EU because of the secret agenda to federalize Europe to eliminate European War. This theory of one government in Europe, The United States of Europe, will end a possible war is just absurd.

This narrative that the entire purpose of the federalization of the EU is to stop any war was stated bluntly by Hollande in the European Parliament. You cannot get more one-world government than this theory. But this spills over into economic power and the surrender of all sovereignty to Brussels.

Margaret Thatchers Burges Speech was spot on about the European Project. It was clear behind the curtain back on September 21, 1988, that this was all about the federalization of Europe and the surrender of national identity. The Guardian ran the story: Thatcher sets face against united Europe. Let me make this very clear. Maggie was thrown out of office by a coup orchestrated by her own cabinet. They were eager to surrender sovereignty to Europe and bought into the whole idea of the United States of Europe.

The new government headed by John Major took the Pound into the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) the same month that German unification began. The monetary policies of Germany were starkly different from Britain. I was called when the attack on the Pound unfolded and was asked what our model said about the Pound because they knew I was a friend of Thatcher. I relayed its analysis that the Pound had to be devalued. I was told that was impossible that John Major had said even the week before the Pound would be maintained in the ERM. I then said that the Pound must be suspended if not officially devalued. The pressure was intense. I explained that a fixed rate is a GUARANTEED trade. I can bet billions and if wrong, nothing happens and I get my money back. That finally made the point.

Black Wednesday, September 16th, 1992, was when the UK Conservative government that had thrown Thatcher out of power to take the Pound into the coming Euro was forced to withdraw from the ERM. While everyone blamed George Soros for making over US$1 billion from this GUARANTEED trade, the truth of the matter this is the only thing that SAVED Britain. Britain was headed into the Euro and the elite Conservatives would not listen to Margaret Thatcher.

Now that BREXIT is in play, the British should be on their hands and knees and be kissing their ground that they are not connected to continental Europe. There are many national and regional sensitivities that must be taken into account when it comes to trade. The British want to conclude agreements with India, Turkey, and China, that are not on the same page with the EU.

The government in London is targeting a free trade agreement following the BREXIT to limit disadvantages that people think exist for the domestic economy after the EU exit 2019. The EU is more interested in punishing Britain as an example of other member states that they better not leave the EU or else. This is all about punishment – not economics.

The British government is under pressure, as the EU will only negotiate the free trade agreement in London if the BREXIT divorce talks have made sufficient progress. Donald Tusk has been playing hard-ball to punish Britain and actually said the EU was negotiating in good faith without any evidence whatsoever to prove that statement. He said in turn: “We hear from London that the UK government is preparing a ‘no deal’ scenario. I would like to say very clearly that the EU is not working on such a scenario. “

There has been little tangible results in trying to negotiate with the EU. British Prime Minister Theresa May is expecting the conclusion of the BREXIT talks only before the departure from the EU in March 2019. Clearly, the British government is also preparing for a situation where no agreement is reached with the EU on exit and contingency plans are being put into place for this likelihood. Keep in mind that the EU will NOT make easy for they fear other states will take the same option.

This is a matter of pride for the EU. A hard BREXIT would hit especially the German economy. The representatives of the German economy are already nervous because of the slow negotiations. The German Federation of German Industries (BDI) has already warned the government that German companies had to “take precautionary measures for a very hard departure.” The Association of German Machinery and Plant Engineering (VDMA) said: “A tough Brexit is a conceivable but not acceptable scenario for the economy.”

Why is German industry getting nervous with its politicians seeking revenge? Britain is the world’s fourth-largest international market with an export volume of €7.4 billion euros last year for German products. Conversely, the Britain delivered 2016 machinery construction products worth €2.4 billion to Germany.

The problem is purely political and has become a turf war and pressure builds against the dreams of the centralized federalization of Europe.

 

Oct 12 2017

Capital Flow Movements


Armstrong Economics Blog/Capital Flow

Re-Posted Oct 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

You said that people and institutions from Europe send their cash to the US to get a higher yield. This makes a lot of sense. At the same time, the dollar has been falling. You have also stated that US institutional investors are sending money to developing markets to get a higher yield. Is more money leaving the US to emerging markets then flowing in from Europe?

Thank you for your thoughts and wisdom.

ANSWER: Yes. Here is our capital flow map, which is proprietary. Even central banks are using this. We are collecting the raw data globally and will be providing a breakdown in the future of volume and sector analysis we pick up in the flows. Nonetheless, there are diverse trends combining at all times. It is never everyone doing one thing for a single reason. The broader categories are three separate motives.

(1) the flow of capital from Europe to the USA is primarily institutional from (a) banks parking funds at the Fed rather than the ECB, and (b) playing the US equities which have been a boom since September in terms of Euros.

(2) You have US institutions who think the US sharemarket is overbought so then have shifted in any case up to 50% to overseas markets assuming they are not a frothy as the USA

(3) You then have American pension funds who have been buying high-yield third world debt to try to make up for the losses domestically with too low-interest rates.

Therefore, the net trend for the dollar has been down since February when the capital flows shifted. We will see this now beginning to shift reversing back into the dollar especially next year.

Oct 12 2017

Over 5 Million Government Employees Strike Against Fall of Socialism


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

In France, tens of thousands of people went to the streets for the first time in ten years in protest against Macron. All 5.4 million public employees went on strike. The protests are directed against the planned elimination of 120,000 official posts and the end of the welfare state as many see it. In addition, Parliament has authorized President Emanuel Macron to implement the disputed labor market reforms by means of regulations.

Macron’s battle against high unemployment does realistically look to relax the rigid labor law that is one-sided for the worker against companies under the theory of Marxism. Macron realizes that more flexibility must be provided to employers or they will not hire people – plain and simple. He wants to implement his controversial reform through ordinances, or what we would call executive orders in the States and is, therefore, faster than the usual parliamentary legislative process. The parliament had to grant him the right to revise regulations but by law. The law now allows Macron to revise regulations and at the same time fixes the outline of the reforms.Macron promises “more freedom” for companies and at the same time “more security” for workers.

Criticism of the reform comes from trade unions and left parties who cannot see the opposite side of the table. They say Macron has taken an entrepreneur-friendly policy and is dismantling the welfare state. This is what the strikes are all about. Once again, we are looking at the demise of socialism. Do not forget, Communism began in France and it was sold to Marx as a great idea. The idea of the commune emerged in the late 18th century.

Oct 12 2017

Taxes the Lynch-Pin of Civilization


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong: I find it disheartening the more I try to advance my family to build a better future for them, the more I realize that the harder I work we do not really get ahead. I agree that taxes just keep moving higher and I am now looking for a job in my field to leave California. A friend of mine from school left Illinois and moved to Texas. He said he feels much better and is gaining ground instead of losing it. Has taxes been the driving force to create migration in advanced civilization?

 

ANSWER: Absolutely. I have written how Rome fell and just mapping the population of Rome you can see the fate of Illinois – people sell and just leave. It is different this time because, under socialism, the government has become abusive. When it came to integration, they sought to implement it by sheer force.

You simply can’t legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity. Jobs are created by the wealthy who become wealthy because of their innovation as a vision – i.e. Henry Ford, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and so on. Hemry Ford’s vision created the auto industry. Bill Gates in bringing DOS to life, created the personal computer industry as did Steve Jobs. How much employment did just those three men create? Far more than government.

Government creates nothing to advance society or to increase GDP in any positive manner. It is a natural human response not to pay taxes and this is why taxes have been the number one reason for civil war and revolution. It is always resentful to pay taxes whereas to give money to help someone is rewarding. Taxes tend to support politicians and their pensions which they exempt themselves from everything from Inside Trading to Obamacare. If they must sell some asset to take a government job, it is tax-free.

The great welfare state has produced a large segment of fraud and kept many people down since they would rather be taken care of than working to take care of themselves. Even in prison, many people are sentenced to 10 or 20 years and the first thing they do is commit a crime to get back in where they do not have to pay taxes and they are taken care of. You destroy people’s lives for such a long-period for non-violent crimes and then expect them to have a fulfilling life thereafter?

Clearly, New Zealand once had a program where if a woman was pregnant and she had no idea who the father was, the government provided everything right down to a free home. They ended up with the highest percentage of women who had no idea who the father of their child was. Naturally, they did and he would jump out the back window when the social worker visited. They got everything for free then.

Any of these types of programs divide and conquer. The government cannot give to anybody anything that the government doesn’t first take from somebody else.  When you reach a state where 50% of the people depend upon the other 50% to pay their bills, you end up with class warfare and bitterness. The is the cycle where civilization rises, peaks, and then crashes when government becomes the enemy of the people.

Oct 12 2017

Schäuble Warns of Coming Economic Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 12, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

In his farewell interview for the Financial Times, Federal Minister of Finance Wolfgang Schäuble warned of a new global financial crisis predicated upon the Quantity of Money theory that the central banks had pumped trillions of dollars into the financial system that is creating a risk of “new bubbles”.  Indeed, many just do not comprehend what is going on and are blaming the new highs in share markets on concerns about the increased risks from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt.

The IMF CEO Christine Lagarde has also gone on record warning of a new debt crisis. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has also joined the crowd who see the Quantitative Easing as increasing the risk of asset bubbles. Schäuble has made it clear that he sees the risk is greater in the Eurozone because of the excessive amount of bad loans held by banks.

This is the view that has driven Schäuble calling for the continuation of austerity policy in southern Europe. Schäuble is to be elected president of the new Bundestag at the end of October. The problem with austerity is that this has been directed at the people – not government. The QE policies have brought in government debt, so the added liquidity has FAILED to stimulate the economy and capital has been driven into assets by negative interest rates. Austerity will only further punish the private sector while the public sector continues to spend and then raises taxes maintaining deflation and the negative interest rates rob people of any income from their savings

Oct 11 2017

Germany Moves Ahead with Nord Stream II


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy

Re-Posted Oct 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

EU lawyers have sided with Germany and effectively told the European Commission their bid to regulate a new Russia-Germany gas pipeline known as- Nord Stream 2 (NS2) is seriously flawed. The now former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder  is working with the Russians to push this project forward. This clearly demonstrates that Germany has the upper-hand in Brussels.

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Oct 10 2017

Democrats Collapsing with Socialism?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Oct 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty; I just read Time Magazine that said the Democrats are in the worse shape since 1929. I understand you take no personal credit for all of these amazing forecast you provide on so many topics. You have clearly shown that the world is connected and the global trend is identifiable. Can your computer also forecast that you will make a difference when it comes to push v shove?

ND

ANSWER: Political change is driven by economics. That is fundamental. Time Magazine correctly wrote: “On the surface, the Democratic Party has been united … [b]ut dig an inch deeper and it’s clear the party is divided…” I have warned that the seeds of discontent were rising inside the Democratic Party back in February. In September 2016, I warned that: “By 2018, we just may see a completely different party forged out of the collapse of both the Democrats and Republicans we have come to know.” Trump has recast the Republican Party even though the elites are still in denial and fighting back. Trump beat all their candidates. So even the Republican think this is a fluke.

The people now handling Trump, are doing their best to steer him clear of the Deep State to protect the inner-workings. Trump is finding it very difficult to Drain the Swamp because the Press is defending the Swamp to their last gasp of air like CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post. CNN fell below all the other news programs because of their extreme bias.

 

The numbers are the numbers. The computer has no personal bias. If we simply step back and look at this chart objectively, it is not hard to see why the computer has been forecasting the demise of the Democratic Party which has maintained the mantra that business is evil as are the rich.

That view dominated the union movements of the 20th century and they succeeded in driving quality down and their jobs to leave by boat, train, and plane. New York use to be the biggest port in the United States. Today only a few Cruise lines sail from NYC at Pier 88/90/92 by 55th street. Here is a postcard from 1909 showing all the activity. The unions drove the shipping industry out of New York with this anti-business attitude inspired by the Democrats and Karl Marx.

Socialism is dying and taking the Democratic Party with it. Time Magazine quotes Democrat Tim Ryan is an 8 term Congressman who was even considered as a potential VP with Hillary. He is frustrated with his own party and finds the message with “its fixation on divisive issues and its ‘demonization’ of business owners” is not a message people want to hear any more.

The Democrats are living in the past and their message is not embracing anyone except those Democrats who cannot think for themselves and simply vote because they are Democrat.

This is BY NO MEANS my personal opinion. This is simply based upon the trend in motion. The left is losing around the globe for it has been a hateful agenda that always blames the rich, yet constantly reduces the standard of living for everyone the same a s Communism did while making politicians rich and the elite. This is how empires, nations, and city states collapse into the dust of history.

The Democrats with their hardcore supporters, are simply in a state of denial. The Republican elite are likewise in a state of denial and think Trump was just as passing fad. Both sides will learn the hard way – this is about them. It is time for political change.

I am not sure of the outcome for myself. I can say that the demand for access to our systems is growing unbelievably. Hopefully, if someone will just look at the global trend in motion and realize we need a change, then my job is finished.

Oct 10 2017

Why would anyone buy European bank stocks?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Oct 10, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The European banking crisis is still brewing. The biggest problem rises from the rules that if a bank is in trouble, they just seize the bank and sell it for €1 and all the shareholders lose everything. This is having serious impact upon the European Banking System as a whole as I previously warned. The Italian bank Carige has had difficulty in trying to raise capital to meet requirements. If any bank cannot raise enough capital to meet the requirements, the European supervisory authorities can seize the bank in accordance with the new rules.

Once again, the government solution is to make up rules that totally disregard the private reality. Why would anyone buy bank stocks in Europe today if the government can seize everything and shareholders get zero? Spain’s Banco Santander bought rival Banco Popular for €1. This is Brussels’s new system to rescue failing banks without burdening taxpayers or stressing markets. This was cheered around the world because the shareholders lost absolutely everything. The bank which was valued in the collapse at €1.6 billion was bought for €1.

Hello! Why would anyone buy European bank stocks? I cannot recommend buying any in Europe. It’s just too risky. An Industrial corporation goes into bankruptcy and its assets are sold. The shareholders get something back. Banks are becoming more like government bonds. The normal rules just do not apply.

Oct 9 2017

The Epidemic of Fake Analysis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 9, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I want to thank you for your work on Europe. We hear nothing from European analysts but up-up-and away and it makes one wonder if that is not fake analysis just like the news. Nobody seems to be talking about how retail sales are declining in Europe and even my mother, who is 90, said it is because they tax us too much.

Keep up the analysis. We need someone to tell the truth who is not told what to report here in Europe.

PF

REPLY: Yes, that has always been the NUMBER ONE problem in analysis. A famous bank has analysts but they cannot speak truthfully for the ECB will pick up the phone and they are silenced or fired. BTW, your mother is spot on. They keep raising taxes and hunting money and then wonder why there is deflation. Ah! The illogical thoughts of those in power.

The retailers in the Eurozone had posted the second monthly decline in sales falling 5% in August. This was the sharpest drop in one month since October 2015 when the ECM turned. It does not speak well as we head into 2020. The official news reported was that European Economists came out and forecast in response that sales will increase of 3% next year.

During the holiday season in August, which is traditionally the best month of gasoline sales, reported a stunning fuel sales decline by 9%. This is reflecting the growing concern about terrorism as people are showing a distinct decline in travel.

Our problem is that we have career politicians. This infects everything. They are only concerned about their reelection so they manipulate the analysis to deny that there are problems. All we hear is constant complaints about the quality of analysis. The shocking trend is now central banks want to just subscribe to Socrates because even they are fed up with what you call “fake analysis” that is getting really bad.