Tag Archives: Islamic Republic

Apr 20 2016

Central Banks Are Trapped – Higher Interest Rates the Only Answer?


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Apr 20, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Reserve Bank Australia Glenn Stevens

COMMENT: Marty, well it looks like you have done it. The central banks are going to start raising interest rates right in line with your model. It is interesting how your computer puts the entire world before you to see. Keep up the good work. They obviously are starting to follow you.

SS

REPLY: I do not think that the central banks are simply beginning to follow us. Yes, they all probably read us no doubt. But make no mistake about it, they are going to raise rates not because of our model, but because they have no choice. Low interest rates have wiped out pension funds and destroyed the living standards of the elderly. These people are clueless and should never have followed Larry Summers down this path of absolute hell. The comments of Glenn Stevens, the meeting between Yellen and Obama, and the criticism starting to surface against Draghi at the ECB is the realization that interest rates must be “normalized” (raised) but they have created a nightmare for governments are addicted to low interest rates and their budget will explode and we will see a sharp rising in taxes from 2017 onward.

We will be putting out a very important special report. What is going on behind the curtain right now is state pensions are lobbying Congress to make it MANDATORY that everyone (not just government employees) contribute to state pension systems. They want to takeover your 401K and manage everything robbing your saving to pay for unfunded liabilities to state workers. This is how they are looking to bail themselves out. This is the dark side post-2017. This is going on right now and it is still all hush hush.

CBDUSA-Y 2015

All the markets from metals to equities and oil, have pushed right to the limits. Almost all markets are approaching their key target resistance and reversals. Even silver has rallied to the Weekly Bullish at 1719 followed by 1775 just below last year’s high of 1850.5 causing the silver/gold ratio to bounce from resistance. The Dow has done almost the exact same type of move reaching the Bullish Reversals just beneath last year’s high. Gold has done the same thing stopping just 30 cents from the Weekly Bullish Reversal at 1287.50 shy of last year’s high of 1307.80. Of course oil has not come close to last year’s high of 62.58.

The point is, when we extract the emotion and opinion which is incompatible with forecasting, the entire purpose of our model is to provide a very black and white perspective without the hype and emotion that causes losses. We know when to get excited and when to hold back. Nearly 90% of people investing lose money because they are victims of their own emotion. Let the markets show you the trend. They are never wrong, only people. Over the years I have personally noticed that when it is the MOST difficult even for me to stand firm and I begin to question will it break through, that is precisely when it does not. So if the markets can move to such an extreme that even I get that feeling inside OMG, is this correct, that is when it is right in spades. This is an emotional game and people trade emotionally to their own demise.

So step back, we have the time and numbers. Just let the markets do what they do best. Never ANTICIPATE for that is how you buy the high or sell the low.

Apr 20 2016

Surviving the Coming Transition


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Apr 20, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Business Cycle

QUESTION:  Dear Martin and co-workers,
Firstly, I want to express my appreciation for the writings at the blog (it opened my eyes! and I am very much awake now) and I read a daily. I am a stay-at-home-mother, artist, and I had never before gained knowledge about economics , it’s corruptive nature, and leading role in society. However Just a few months ago I saw the movie The forecaster. Martin you are truly an amazing guy!!! and I wish you the best!
My question:Do you have an advice or suggestion for people like myself. No traders, (middle income) families, living in Europe or the US, kids who would like to study. How can we accomplish that with just a little savings in order to the potential fall of the euro and collapse of the system?
P.S. I clearly understand that you don’t want to be a so called guru.
Sincerely, conny

hope

ANSWER: It is very difficult to see forward in such a manner. Tangible assets will make the transition to the next world of finance. There will be a new base of currency and it will most likely be electronic. The reason for this is political. The USA peaked as did Britain. The financial power will move to Asia, and Europe along with the USA will crash and burn because they are caught in this fictional world created by Marx. Russia and China collapsed under Marxism. It is just our time.

I would support some practical basket of currencies since Russia and China dislike having the dollar as the reserve currency. Likewise, with the dollar being the only practical currency standing, the USA is realizing that it may lose control of its domestic economy because of international considerations. Clearly, there have already been discussions of removing the reserve status of the dollar, but this cannot be accomplished unilaterally. Under no circumstance would I support placing the IMF in charge of this instrument. That organization is way too corrupt and my advice to China and Russia (where we also have this blog in their respective languages) is to reject any such attempt to hand this power to the IMF. We need a clean house to start such a project and the IMF has way too much baggage.

Education

Formal education is the way we perpetuate our mistakes forward. When I hire, I do not look at fake degrees. I look at the person and their thinking process. Samuel Butler (1835–1902) the iconoclastic Victorian-era English author, defined genius as “a supreme capacity for getting its possessors into trouble of all kinds.” If your child does not do well in school because they are bored rather than incapable of understanding such subjects, then they may be what people call a genius. Geniuses are often misunderstood in classrooms and are typically poor students whom teachers dislike because they are non-conformists. Studies at the University of Chicago and the University of Minnesota have found that teachers smile at children with high IQs and frown upon those with creative minds. When we had young people coming into the company who had to take their Series 7 exam, they would ask me questions. I quickly responded, “Do not ask me anything for if you do as I say you will flunk. Just memorize the answers, put them down, and then forget them and we will begin your REAL education in markets.”

The intelligent yet uncreative students accept conformity, never rebel, and complete their assignments quickly and perfectly. The creative child questions everything and accepts nothing. They are much more manipulative, imaginative, and intuitive growing up. They will often play one parent against another. In school, teachers dislike them because they will harass the teacher with questions that expose the illogical dogma they teach.

These genius children are often viewed as wild, naughty, silly, undependable, and lacking in seriousness or even promise. They even said that of Albert Einstein. Their behavior is typically distracting and they will often appear lazy, bored, and lacking any effort to try to advance, but in truth, they are absorbing everything around them. Such children will also give unique answers to banal questions because they are connecting the dots around them. Other children who are linear thinkers will typically reject these children which can cause them to be loners.

Ellis Paul Torrance (1915-2003) was an American psychologist who studied this subject and found that 70% of pupils rated high in creativity were actually rejected by teachers when picking a special class for the intellectually gifted. In a Stanford study, M.G. Goertzel, V. Goertzel, and T.G. Goertzel concluded that teachers would have excluded virtually everyone we consider to be a genius from Einstein and Edison to Picasso and Mark Twain. There is even a book on this called “The Price of Greatness: Resolving the Creativity and Madness Controversy” by Arnold M. Ludwig (1995) which explores the lives and achievements of over 1,000 extraordinary men and women. This book sought to answer the age-old questions about the relationship between mental illness and greatness. It also goes into factors that predict creative achievement in people. You will find a long list of very colorful stories about some of the most eminent artists, scientists, social activists, politicians, soldiers, and business people of our time.

Formal education is terrible. More than 60% of graduates cannot find employment in their field of study. Degrees are only useful to get jobs in brain-dead institutions that lack creativity themselves. Encourage your children to see the world dynamically and look for the connection between the dots. In ancient times, the key education was apprenticeship where you learned the field from the people actually doing the work rather than by those who lack experience. As they say, there are those who do and those who teach. I have been asked to teach at three of the leading universities. The problem is that I have no time. Those of us who really do things would find it boring and unfulfilling to simply stand up and teach a small class of kids. I might as well be a rock star singing the same song for 40 years (which is why rock stars need drugs to constantly do the same thing until they die).

If you understand what is coming, common sense will lead you to the answer. You are better off with tangible assets for the transition when it comes. From a European perspective, you are better off in dollars for now. The euro only gets interesting above 116. So you always have to define where you are right and wrong. Some people are keeping money in PayPal where they are not charged negative interest rates to simply have money there and they do not have bad loans on their books.

Apr 20 2016

Who is the Bigger Manipulator of All Time?


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Apr 20, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Manipulation-3

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have stood up against the bankers for their manipulations when nobody else would do so and paid the price that these people who hate you never acknowledge. They even made a movie about you for standing up to these bankers yet these goldbugs do hate you for exposing their rantings. If they were not wrong, they would not be against you since you have even shown how you project $5,000 gold in the years ahead using real analysis not guessing. It is always kill the messenger. To me this reflects their lack of honesty. My question is simple. Who is the bigger manipulator, the banks or government? Since Hillary’s lack of trust is at 57% and Trump is around 60%, I suspect it is government. But I will defer to you.

Thank you for looking after us

JD

ANSWER: In my “opinion”, there is no question that government is the master manipulator. This is what Marxism and Keynesianism is all about — how to manipulate society to maintain political power. This is also coming to an end. The central banks have manipulated themselves into an impossible position from which there is no escape. This is what will make the metals and stocks rally. This has nothing to do with bank manipulations, hyperinflation or fiat; this has to do with the collapse in confidence within government.

Apr 18 2016

Saudi Threat to Sell U.S. Assets is No Big Deal


Armstrong Economics Blog

Ew-Posted Apr 17, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Adel_Al_jubeer

Saudi Arabia has threatened the Obama administration and congressional leaders that it will sell billions of dollars in U.S. financial assets if Congress passes a bill to make the Saudi government legally responsible for any role in the 9/11 attacks. That bill would allow claims to freeze their assets in the USA by a judge pending the litigation. Obama has tried to stop Congress from passing the legislation, but this is a bipartisan Senate bill. Obviously, Saudi Arabia is worried that there are viable claims that are not frivolous. The typical dollar haters are championing this as a death knell, but Saudi Arabia’s assets of $750 billion are not exclusively government bonds. Saudi Arabia does not even make the top 10 list of holders of U.S. Treasury notes. Most of their “investments” are other assets which would be crazy for them to try to sell for the price would crash.

As far as Treasury notes, the Saudi holdings would be soaked up in minutes. Sorry, no big deal. I have warned that the whole Syria mess has involved a pipeline to deliver gas to Europe. They did threaten Putin that terrorism would hit Russia for the Olympics if they did not yield to Saudi Arabia. Then there are those pointing to the connection of terrorism in Brussels linked to Brussels’ largest mosque that is bankrolled by Saudi Arabia, a Salafist regime, which has tried to separate itself from the terror attacks. However, some say they are not revealing everything. There are more and more people pointing at Saudi Arabia so they are obviously trying to stop any lawsuits that might embarrass them even more. If people could file suits, either they just hand them default judgments or they defend, and to defend they have to provide a discovery of many things they do not wish to reveal.

2015-2016

Welcome to the other side of 2015.75 – the decline and fall of governments. This is a worldwide trend for their attempt to manipulate society is coming to an end. OPEC has been unable to control the price of oil. Governments have been unable to manage the economy. This is all coming to a shocking end. They will kick and scream all the way, but will not change the course of destiny.

Apr 17 2016

Sunday Question: “Why Do You Support Donald Trump”?


I Like trump for two reasons number one is he has correctly identified the key problems facing our country; where are out of control spending, shipping job to China, open borders and bringing Muslims into America. There are others, of course, but those four are at the top of the list. Since i have been seriously studying these issues for 20 years it was refreshing to see one person hit them all.
The second reason is that he is not an attorney nor a politician since both are trained to lie and cheat. I got seriously into politics after 9/11 and when Obama ran the first time I worked very hard to stop him as he was exactly what we didn’t need. Between 2008 and 2014 the tea party group i belong too had many politicians come to us for recommendations and we had from them promises which i can state that few if any were ever kept. Since this was a personal observation of both local and national Republicans it was easy to see that the party itself was corrupt. By the way I’m in Cleveland Ohio.

Obviously I knew who Trump was but so I knew he was a very successful businessman which meant he knew how to get things done not pontificate about them. So when he announced he was running and talked about the wall and said he would get Mexico to pay for it he had we because I knew he could do it. And i have been writing and posting on my blog ever since about him albeit not as well as Sundance.

Apr 16 2016

Modern Liberalism and the Death of Civilization


Prof. Paul Eidelberg

The Nihilism (involving moral relativism) that contaminated higher education in America begins with the early 20th century flood of European philosophy in American academia.  Most influential was Germany’s (or Hegel’s) historical relativism, which contradicts the biblical narrative, as did England’s (or Hume’s) atheistic empiricism. Both dominate higher education to this day, even in the “Jewish” state of Israel.

As Leo Strauss has shown, the father of modern liberalism is none other than Spinoza. Spinoza is also the father of biblical criticism. This made Spinoza the darling of Germany, of the nineteenth-century German school of Bible Critics.

Spinoza must therefore have encouraged the European-educated John Stuart Mill, whose mid-nineteenth essay On Liberty made him the world’s leading exponent of unfettered freedom of speech, hence of the free speech Liberalism that continues to predominate the mentality of American law schools and judicial institutions.

Paradoxically, however, free speech Liberalism is now eviscerating academic freedom in the United States. American colleges and universities have succumbed to the virtual totalitarianism underlying the prohibition of what is called “hate speech,” speech that offends the sentiments, above all the religious beliefs of Muslims, The ban on “hate speech” means the end of the liberal dogma of unfettered freedom of speech. The ban on “hate speech” may readily be construed as indistinguishable from speech involving, however remotely the character of other human beings.

What irony! The unrestrained permissiveness of Liberalism regarded obscenity as a protected form of speech by the American Supreme Court. This ruling at least denied the existence of truth and of evil, hence of that which denies the existence of a rational God, as well as the distinction between the human and the subhuman.

That denial can readily undermine the distinction between the polite speech appropriate in the company of woman and the obscene speech typical among vile men. This involves a degradation of language. The foulness of language violates the language of Holy Writ, which utterly avoids obscenity and employs only euphemisms to avoid any degradation of the human body, the creation of God.

This lofty attitude toward speech or language was overruled by Israel’s ultra-Liberal Supreme Court president, Judge Aharon Barak, who nullified a law permitting the Film Censorship Board to ban pornographic movies by ruling that nothing can actually be declared pornography, “as one man’s pornography is another man’s art” (Station Film Company v. Film Censorship Board, 1997).

As a free speech Liberal, Barak seems to have been very much influenced by the academic doctrine of moral-cum-cultural relativism. Moral-cum-cultural relativism was, and effectively still is, the ruling dogma of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

The most famous and influential intellectual founder of this university was the German-educated Martin Buber. Buber, who renounced Judaism to the extent of marrying a Gentile, propagated the anti-Jewish Hegelian doctrine of Historical Relativism (or moral pluralism). Buber’s book, Two Kinds of Faith, happens to provide a philosophical basis of the “two-state solution” to the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

Buber wrote Two Kinds of Faith to justify by his marriage to a Gentile, a convenient academic justification for a Jew-turned cultural relativist!

 

Epilogue

The free speech Liberalism underlying American as well as Israeli law has sanctified public obscenity and even pornography, which are rooted in atheism. The denial of God, evident in contemporary Liberal education, engenders the denial of all moral distinctions. An important set of moral distinctions is related to men and women. The ascendency of free speech Liberalism, of unfettered freedom of speech, diminishes the differences in the language used in speaking to and about men and women.

This unrestrained Liberalism encourages not only homosexuality and the legalization of same-sex marriage. By its denial of truth it generates nihilism which in turn undermines any normative understanding of Islamic terrorism, as is evident in President Barak Obama’s attitude toward that savagery.

Same sex marriage, like Islamic terrorism, is a rejection of Western Civilization. Women (hence children) will be the first victims of this Liberalism, beginning, as mentioned, with our attitude toward Language. Since language distinguishes the human from the subhuman, its degradation in obscenity cannot but degrade human life. This is also the consequence of Islamic terrorism which, consistent with Islamic theology, substitutes the primacy of force over the primacy of reason.

Summing up: free speech Liberalism – with its denial of truth – is actually a negation of rational speech, hence of God’s gift to man. Unfettered freedom of speech, the tendency of modern Liberalism, and implicit in the above-mentioned decision of Judge Aharon Barak, signals the death of rational speech, hence of civilization.

With Barak-type Liberals laying down the law concerning what was traditionally known as distinctively human, and therefore hence of what is decent and indecent, the word “terrorism” will become as meaningless as the term “marriage.” Small wonder that neither Israelis nor Americans know where they are going, although there are signs that their ultimate destination is the grave.◙

Apr 15 2016

Influence – Does it Matter?


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Apr 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Crash & BurnQUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; A lot of people claim to have contacts in high places, but they seem to delude themselves and others. I have been in Washington and saw you at lunch meetings with chiefs or staff of several politicians in ————- one of the most exclusive spots as only for members of Congress. I have been in Brussels and seen you there running around to meetings. Friends in Beijing say the same that you are not blocked and held in very high regard. You have more “influence” than you admit. Do you think you can help prevent the coming crisis?

—

Facing Sun -1

ANSWER: Yes, I do not deny that I know a lot of people in many governments. It is true I suppose that you could say I have some “influence” but that is among the minority. There are people in government who see this mess coming. However, they are powerless to prevent the collapse. I do not possess enough “influence” as you put it to prevent anything. The majority will grind the system into collapse. Nobody can stop that. All I hope to accomplish is when that moment comes, perhaps I can shine a light on the path to freedom rather than suppression. We will see. I get to leave this earth. My life is over from a rational perspective. I am glad I am not 18 today. If I can leave something behind to my posterity, then it is worth the effort. But neither I nor anyone else possesses enough “influence” to prevent the crash and burn. The best I can do is to hope that they can stand there with their arms wide open facing the sun and see the alternative being freedom.

Apr 15 2016

Europeans – Get Out While you Can?


Armstrong Economics Blog

RE- Posted Apr 14, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Draghai Euro Crisis

QUESTION: Hey Martin.
I’ve been a reader of your for years now. Thank you for everything you are doing. I live in Europe in Finland and I can feel this continent collapsing. Do I understand you correctly. You suggest that we Europeans open a bank account somewhere else, hold our savings in dollars and when gold bottoms we buy gold with our dollars. Is that correct?
Please answer Martin because I’m afraid to hold my savings in Euros in my bank.

 

ANSWER: Yes. So far, the USA is actually a tax haven for non-Americans. You can open a bank account in the USA which Americans cannot do the same overseas. You would want to do that before it is too late. If Britain does vote to exit, it will set off a contagion that will cripple the EU.

1900$X-M 1931 Sovereign Debt

PlazaAccordGold should NOT be your only investment. You should consider US equities – blue chips. The dollar will rise and with it this will break the monetary system. It is unlikely that would unfold before 2018. Nevertheless, this could come in 2020. We get major monetary reform ONLY when the dollar rises. A declining dollar will will see US corporate profits rise. Only a rising dollar will break the system. US banks are far safer than European. Those preaching the dollar will be destroyed so buy gold now do not even understand finance nor do they comprehend history. It was the rise in the dollar in 1933 because of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in 1931 that sent the dollar to record highs resulting in its devaluation and confiscation of gold. In 1985, the dollar rose to all time highs sending the British pound to $1.03, which then resulted in the creation of the G5 (now G20) at the plaza accord. It is the high dollar which export deflation, with result in defaults of emerging market debt, and break the remaining pegs to the dollar by various countries. No such chaos will take place if the dollar declines.

Failing to understand the dollar and its role within this decline of the Western economies will cost you a fortune. Our forecast has always been a retest of support in the dollar for 2016 and then off and running. The dollar is still well within its long-term uptrend channel. Gold will rise but it is not yet ready for prime time. Be patient. The 2016 Gold Report will cover the timing when to buy. These people who constant cheer every rally as the launch of gold and the demise of the dollar live in a dream world. Nothing takes place in isolation. Everything is connected.

Apr 13 2016

The World Economy is Closing In Thanks to Merkel


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re-Posted Apr 12, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Mother-Merkel

Merkel-Welcome

Sometimes the brain-dead decision of one person can set off a contagion that sweeps the world. Merkel’s open invitation to the Muslim, pretend refugees has been tearing Europe apart. The majority are not even from Syria. European states will raise their borders and require a passport because so many of these Muslim “refugees” are unaccounted for, especially after the Brussels attack.

Ted Cruz had to respond to the rising support for Trump over this immigration issue, as it is also becoming the main focus in Britain. Cruz said Trump cannot block Muslims, so he proposed the politically correct version: all Europeans must get a visa to enter the USA. Now Europe is responding as nations always do and the European Union (EU) is currently considering requiring U.S. citizens and Canadians to apply for visas before visiting the country of their choice, even if it’s for a short vacation. Currently, visitors to the U.S. from Poland, Croatia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania all need a visa. Romanians and Bulgarians also need visas for Canada. The European Commission claims it is trying to achieve a full visa waiver for all member states, but in reality, this is a standard response to Cruz’s statement that he would introduce legislation to impose a visa requirement on all Europeans. The fear is that the Muslims who are interested in terrorism can get into the USA easily via Europe because of what Merkel has done. So we face the problem of closing borders within the EU because the refugees will spread, and that, unfortunately, becomes only logical. It does not appear to be reversible.

Apr 11 2016

New Bill to Collect Taxes Outlawing Encryption


Armstrong Economics Blog

Re Posted Apr 11, 2016 by Martin Armstrong

Encryprion Bill

Those in power are simply liars. Why we elect such people is beyond me. We simply cannot afford career politicians because they will ALWAYS divide between themselves and the people. NO REPUBLIC has ever resisted converting into an oligarchy. It just does not work. I reported that Obama slipped and actually said the truth by mistake. In the case against Apple, he said if they government could not break into a phone then EVERY American had a Swiss Bank Account in their phone. This is not about terrorism. It is the hunt for money and their mismanagement of the economy.

Here is the proposed bill to outlaw encryption (encryption-bill-discussion-draft). While this is still in draft version, it demonstrates that it is them against us. Passage of this bill will DESTROY the world economy because of their greed. Outlawing encryption will end the ability to pay online. Whatever the government can gain access to, so will hackers.