Tag Archives: June 28 2027

Dec 19 2022

Panic Cycle & the Deep State


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Once more I am asking:
In practical terms, when a Panic Cycle appears, which are the factors that will help us to determine if the movement will be up or down please?
Thank you for answering.
SM

QUESTION #2: Your Panic Cycle is remarkable and your forecast on Ukraine before 2014 warrants putting you on the front page of every newspaper. Do you think the fact that ________ goes out of its way to find people who will say what your model has and never refer to you as being part of the whole disinformation game? I tend to trust them less and less for never crediting your computer even once as part of the whole cancel culture. What is your view on this silence?

ANSWER: A Panic Cycle, more often than not, can be an outside reversal meaning it can penetrate the previous low, turn around, and penetrate the previous high. It can also be a huge move in one direction. They tend to be events that are a surprise typically engulfed in some news. It is hard to come up with the fundamentals well in advance. But the computer was picking up the 2008 crash as far back as 1999. I took this array from our old site off of the Wayback machine.

We published the computer forecast in 2013 that had pinpointed Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. That was one year before the 2014 revolution. The ONLY people to call for an interview on that forecast was RT from Russia. That says a lot. No one social media site nor even one mainstream news outlet ever bothered to can to ask how could this computer do that.

It should be obvious as we move into a Panic Cycle. If a market is rising, be on guard and turn to the Weekly and Monthly levels to see if there will be a big crash or an abrupt breakout. Trying to explain that 2007-2009 would be a major crash was rather simple as you got closer.  The very day of the high in the ECM was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index.  The Panic Cycle Target of 2010.29 was the precise day that Greece applied for emergency loans from the IMF. It should have been obvious going into that from 2002 that it would have been a crash.

Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle can be an OUTSIDE REVERSAL meaning it can make a new low and high during the same timing interval. Here is Weekly gold. There the Panic Cycle for the week of 04/18/22 was a high as well as a big move in one direction. Note that the top Composite or aggregate was a turning point. This helped to define that it would be a high since the market was rallying into it. Take note that the Directional Change target for the Week of 05/16 produced the low also because it coincided with the target for a turning point on the top line. Note that the next Directional Change was 06/06/22 and that was the highest closing with the next week being an outside reversal to the downside.

Insofar as to why other sites refuse to report the success of Socrates or the mainstream press, a lot of people write in asking if the same site ignores our forecasts and will go out of their way to tout someone else are really part of the undercover proxy war of the government against the free press. I cannot confirm or deny that view, but indeed a lot of people write in question if they are the same thing that is now being exposed with the corruption at Twitter and the government-controlled Wikipedia. Some emails have pointed out that they jump on claiming this breakthrough in cold fusion, but refuse to report on how our computer has projected so many things years ahead of time and could save the world if you got rid of the corrupt politicians and deep state.

As I have explained, the Constitution is a NEGATIVE restraint upon exclusive government. This is how the government has been using social media and mainstream media to cancel people, and ignore others, doing what would be unconstitutional if the Deep State did it directly. So you may be right. If they go out of their way to find someone else, perhaps they too are getting their orders from Washington DC. Guess we need Musk to buy them out too.

The computer had targeted 2014 for the start of the war. This is me outlining that 3 years in advance at the 2011 World Economic Conference. Some people judge various sites and newspapers that constantly ignore reporting on any of these forecasts as really just part of the Deep State no matter what they pretend to be. After what Musk has exposed, you have to question any of them these days.

Dec 19 2022

They Never Teach the Truth


Armstrong Economics Blog/History Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I recently graduated ________________ with a degree in history. I just wanted to let you know that nowhere was there ever a discussion that FDR deliberately allowed Pearl Harbor to take place to force the Americans into a world war. I verified independently what you said about FDR. To my total shock, you are 100% correct. That leaves me wondering if what is being taught is indeed just propaganda..

Thank you for all you do. You are an amazing source.

CM

ANSWER: Let me explain something. To write the Greatest Bull Market in History back in 1986, I published my sources with newspaper clippings and researched everything because history is indeed written by the victor. When I was in school, I had to read The Great Crash by John Kenneth Galbraith (1908-2006). Nowhere in there did he EVER criticize the government because he was a left-wing socialist in love with Marx as most academics seem to be.

I was in London and would often rummage around the antique bookstores near the British Museum. I found a copy of Herbert Hoover’s memoirs. It changed my life. It was there that I read about the sovereign debt defaults of 1931. Hoover made a serious mistake. Many blamed him for the Great Depression so he did not want to appear to be making money from it. So his deal was that nobody could make money from the book. They published, I believe, only 500 copies. It was extremely rare. I would discuss what he wrote at institutional seminars I used to do exclusively below 1985. That led to an onslaught of calls to the Hoover Foundation asking for the book. I spoke to them and they said – Oh you’re the guy. I said yes. I was trying to get them to republish the work. Today, you can buy republished editions.

I learned the hard way – never trust what they teach in school. All the research I have done has been on my own. That’s why when I wrote the Great Bull Market in History, I tried to create a “feel” for how I did my research reading all the daily newspapers trying to recreate the experience as if you were there back then. Understanding the truth is critical.

Roosevelt was inflicting embargos on the Japanese, freezing their money, and cutting them off from all energy, and when they turned to buy fuel from other nations, Roosevelt threatened to blockade their ships. Is it any wonder why the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor to eliminate the US fleet after the treats of an embargo?

What we are doing to Russia is the exactly same way Roosevelt treated the Japanese. There will be only one resolution – World War III. I do not believe that those in Washington and Brussels are this stupid. This is DELIBERATE and they are trying to provoke Russia to attack as did the Japanese and they claim we wear the white hats.

Even the official senate investigation into Pearl Harbor became necessary because of “Rumors even circulated that President Franklin Roosevelt, determined to draw the nation into war, baited Japan with an unguarded harbor.” 

Just like the weapons of mass destruction that never existed in Iraq, or Vietnam that never attacked us, or the sinking of the Lusitania because we were secretly sending arms to Britain after swearing we were neutral when it comes to war – the people are NEVER told the truth.

Sep 24 2022

TIR Introduction 1988 London


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Jul 28 2022

The Drought Cycle & Climate Change


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Jul 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello Martin and Team,

My question is related to a gentleman I watched on Greg Hunters Watchdog News that Martin goes on with from time to time. Greg interviewed —- —–. The discussion was around chemtrails and the gov’t messing with the rain patterns, also lake Mead and the Las Vegas drain plug which I do know is real. The main question is there a real likely hood of the S.W. United States to experience very serious drought in short order? I live in Phoenix and this interview was scary and I would be curious to know (along with millions of others) if Dane’s information is credible and if folks living in the S.W. US should really consider trying to move to another part of the country. I wondered if Socrates would be able to give us any insight into what was discussed in the interview.

Thank you so much for your efforts, I have been following Martin since 2008 and I have yet to see Socrates be wrong. We need your efforts more than ever with the complete disaster of the world we are living in.

Regards. DGB

ANSWER: I have no data on the chemtrail issue. My opinion would neither add nor detract from the subject. I prefer not to comment on things I have no experience in or information I cannot confirm. What I can say, rooted entirely in our database on weather, is that like stock markets or economies, there are cycles to droughts and will tend to last for 37 months. Curiously, this is also fractal being 8.6 x 4.3. Even during the 1930s drought episode that produced the Dust Bowl, the average longest stretch was also 37 months, peaking in March 1935.

There was a cycle inversion that took place during the 1950s, which caused a 19-year extension bringing the average drought to the longest stretch of 56 months, peaking in February 1957. While that drought was longer, it was not as intense as that of the 1930s Dust Bowl. The typical short-term events are reactions, and they are typically maxed out at three months.

That said, I can only look at the data. I do not see any alternation to the cycles insofar as altering their length. If the proposition of the chemtrail argument is valid, then I would assume from the data that, at the very best, it could possibly impact the “volatility” as we experience in a market that changes the intensity.

However, as of June 19, 2022, 51.87% of the lower 48 states are in a drought. We have not yet exceeded the high of 1159 AD. So much for fossil fuels creating global warming.

Jul 8 2022

Gold Discovery in Uganda Rocks the World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jul 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: OK. How did Socrates know that they would find 31 million tonnes of gold in Uganda to create a bear market? I really want to hear this one.

Thanks

DH

ANSWER: I believe that the answer lies in the very same reason I found it has been able to forecast war. Someone has information BEFORE it becomes public. That then impacts the capital flows and market movements. The computer is monitoring everything and it is picking up the very subtle trends that are every so insignificant to the eye. You are too caught up in the fundamental nonsense. The movie, The Forecaster, showed that the government wanted the source code. To produce such a film, they have to have liability insurance. Llyods of London insured the film and EVERY allegation had to be documented to them in order to even do that film.

This is why some people trolling for the “establishment” or for “government” are so desperate to prevent t people from looking at Socrates. They want you to buy the BS and the lies to keep you blind to reality. They are like pretend fact-checkers like SNOPES who swore that there was no validity to COVID being produced in a lab – it was a natural evolution. Every one of the so-called fact-checkers are funded by the very people they claim to be fact-checking.

Socrates is monitoring everything. Here is the Silver to gold ratio. Notice it is NOT a straight line. This is because, throughout history, the gold and silver discoveries have not taken place at the same time. Hence, the ratio fluctuates wildly since 1792.

Jul 6 2022

The Future – Post 2032 – A New Beginning?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jul 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Will you explain what Socrates foresees for after 2032 at this year’s WEC in November? I’m more concerned about my grandkids. A lot of people seem to be plagiarizing you these days. But all they have to offer is an opinion and we all have opinions. Socrates has been the only thing that has ever been consistently correct.

TH

ANSWER: I have warned that the Economic Confidence Model and how markets even trade themselves is always fractal. We are completing the end of the BIG ONE. I think a lot of people are starting to see this too. The End of the World is by no means the END. It is just the point in history where it all begins again. We can see that Biden is probably the instrument of death, or should I say those who write his executive orders and cheat sheets. They are obsessed with climate change and are deliberately trying to destroy our capacity to produce and use fossil fuels. 

The hatred and division in our society is just insane. We have celebrities canceling the 4th of July over abortion. The very law that the Supreme Court ruled on limited abortion to 15 weeks. They seem to think they have the right to kill a child up to birth. Bette Midler started a controversy on Twitter by posting: “They don’t call us ‘women’ anymore; they call us ‘birthing people’ or ‘menstruators,’ and even ‘people with vaginas!’ Don’t let them erase you! Every human on earth owes you.” The world has gone insane, and all these labels only divide society, creating one group against another. This is the total destruction of society and these people are so stupid, that they cannot see what they are doing because of their own deranged views.

There is an ebb and flow to civilization. We all come together because it benefits all of us, and then it falls apart when one group begins to exploit another. This is the basic rhythm of civilization. As taxes are low and the economy booms in the city, the youth are attracted to the city and leave their parents on the farms or suburbs and head off to make their fortune in the world. Rome became the largest city in history, reaching a population in excess of 1 million by its peak in 180 AD. It had crossed that 1 million mark in 133 AD during the reign of Hadrian (117-138AD).

With the death of Marcus Aurelius (161-180 AD) in 180 AD, the decline and fall began just 51.6 years after it exceeded one million people. The crazy emperor Commodus (177-192 AD) followed his father. Like the Democrats today who attack anyone who supported Trump and are still running against Trump in 2022, Commodus did the same, and anyone who had supported his father he attacked. Today, Liz Cheney, who is as evil as her father in my opinion, is today’s Commodus. She is the destroyer of civilization, for her personal hatred of Trump is dividing the nation and will ensure that people like her will end the United States as we have known it. Cheney will unleash civil war if she really thinks that she can prevent Trump from running imprisoning over 300 people already for entering the Capitol on January 6. Not even their hated Putin even did that to protesters. This will lead to civil war.

Edward Gibbon wrote in his “Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” about the son of Marcus Aurelius and how he set in motion the collapse of Rome. He wrote of Commodus (177-192AD):

“distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”

(Book 1, Chapter 4).

We see the same hatred spewing from Cheney’s mouth and with the Democrats. Nobody seems to understand what makes civilization work. They are dividing civilization for personal hatred and gain and in the process fulfilling the cycle that will end civilization as we know it.

Rome was the largest city in ancient times. It eventually collapsed to a population of just 15,000 during the middle ages. The city of London, England, was the first city to reach a population again of one million and it took nearly 6 waves of 309.6 years. London reached the 1 million mark in 1810 during the reign of George III (1760-1820) and in comparison, New York City finally reached that level in 1875 thanks to all the people fleeing Europe. We once again are approaching the peak in civilization and what will come after 2032 will be once more the disintegration of civilization.

Rome fell and broke up into small enclaves that ushered in the feudal system. People became serfs for the common protection of a landlord and his castle. We still retain the word “landlord” to this very day. We will see a new world where countries will no longer exist as we know them and they will all divide and separate into localized jurisdictions lacking the strength of central power.

There will be battles over separation. About 86 years from the peak of Rome, it was divided into three segments. Then there were battles to reunite the empire. Then Constantine divided the empire by moving the capital to Constantinople, which is today Istanbul. Even when Russia fell, it divided regions along the lines of the original countries that were conquered.

Globalization will come to an end and we’re already witnessing this with the Biden sanctions on Russia that have caused inflation and divided the world economy in two. We will witness a return to make the manufacture of various goods locally for each division as well as growing their own food. Energy may revert back to wood and oil for there will be no major power grids as they become localized.

Our population models suggest up to a 50% reduction perhaps as soon as 2040. The population is already shrinking and aging in all the major industrialized nations. Just as in ancient Rome, the first Emperor Augustus issued Family Laws because as an economy expands, the birthrate declines. We see many young girls professing they do not want children. This too is part of the cycle, but they will die alone for children historically were the foundation of civilization as they were charged with taking care of their parents. This is what socialism has done — destroyed the family unit.

I often am asked, how can we prevent the trend. Unfortunately, we cannot. It is far greater than anyone can correct. People like Jessica Chastain are all about them. Without children, her luxurious lifestyle will crumble and she will face the stark reality of how civilization has survived with children taking care of their parents. Even in China, the one-child rule significantly altered its future. While that has now been repealed, the damage long-term is profound.

This will be a NEW BEGINNING for civilization. We will get to rewrite the form of government of the future. This will be a 309.6-year Private Wave, which will be volatile, but our current form of Republics that pretend they are democracies are coming to an end. These are the most corrupt forms of government known in history. They will no longer exist. We will see an admixture of dictatorships/monarchies and democracies.

May 4 2022

Sweden – Manipulation or Enhancing a Move?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted May 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty, Socrates correctly projected the claimed Citibank manipulation of Monday in Sweden. It wrote: “The strongest target in the Daily array is Mon. 2nd for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. There are 4 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 2nd to Fri. 6th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Days. I”

How did Socrates project this and then showed it would bounce with another Directional Change? Was it really a manipulation? Citigroup did confirm that it played a role in yesterday’s flash crash. They released a statement: “This morning one of our traders made an error when inputting a transaction. Within minutes, we identified the error and corrected it.” The exchange refused to cancel the trades. This is confusing for it was not beyond the parameters that Socrates laid out including the technical analysis.

Any clarification would be interesting.

All the best

JM

ANSWER: I understand that the common definition of manipulation is simply a big move. To me, this was NOT a manipulation. My definition is moving a market COUNTER-TREND which this was not. Yes, Socrates projected that Monday the 2nd would be a low and that the Directional Changes back to back suggested it would be more of a knee-jerk reaction rather than a change in trend. The array showed the biggest target would be Monday, May 2nd.

There had been low volume. Thus, if it was a mistake, a smaller amount of selling could have a greater impact. However, it still did not move beyond the parameters of the trend as pre-defined by Socrates. Even the technical analysis that the computer does itself showed that this was NOT outside the norm. I appreciate that everyone will jump on this as a “manipulation” but that is just not the case. Manipulation is something that MUST simply be COUNTER-TREND. Making a market move in the direction of the trend in a spike manner is NOT a manipulation. At best, this is ENHANCING a move within its trend. But it is not a manipulation.

Mar 26 2022

An Interview with Martin Armstrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Forecaster Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Mar 14 2022

Trying to Figure Out Why the World is So Precise


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Marty;
Long-time reader, pro member. First of all, thank you for confirming suspicions from my youth that there are cycles everywhere and for expanding the ideas enabling me to see that everything is connected.
I agree w/ you that the financial center of the world is headed back to China. My question, however, is this. China is currently undergoing its own economic problems in banking and real estate putting pressure on the populace and hence, upon the CCP. What does Socrates say China will look like come 2032+? How will the Chinese society change and how will this change influence the world at large post-2032?

VT

QUESTION #2: Marty, I am flabbergasted that you said in 2013 that Ukraine was the place this all begins. Your long-range forecasts are beyond what anyone has ever done. I find it appalling that these sites like ______  post everyone but you because they are closet gold bugs. This is about helping society understand how the world works for which you should get the Noble Prize. These sites ignore you because they too are no different than the people they claim to oppose. They only preach their own theories.

My question is, have you made any progress in understanding how your model makes these forecasts nobody else can do?

HF

ANSWER: I believe the world is so COMPLEX that there is no possibility of humans analyzing and forecasting the future from a personal gut feeling on a consistent basis. Yes, there are people who hate me because they do not like a forecast. They are just fools and you cannot ever win an argument with a fool. Life is all about keeping an open mind and learning everything we can. Perhaps that is what people call an old soul.

It is true that you see advertisements of some guy who claims he called some crash. One forecast can be nothing but dumb luck the same as a broken clock is still correct twice each day. I have been pursuing this phenomenon of trying to understand how the world REALLY works for decades. I too have found it fascinating how the model can make so many forecasts to the very day – not just one and it is all mathematical which cannot be fudged. I believe this simply reveals that there is a hidden order to everything. It reminds me of the conflict I saw in school between Physics class and Economics. The first said there is nothing random and the latter said everything was random so we can eliminate the business cycle and prevent depressions and recession. Physics was correct – economics was wrong.

Yes, on December 3rd, 2013, I posted: “Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch.” I wrote:

“The War Cycle turns up next year. Because Kiev was the first capital of Russia, this is really important. Ukraine is between Russia and Europe and is being torn apart. Russia’s pride is on the chopping block and this is the real center of the struggle for Russia.”

If you watch Ukraine of Fire, it will help you better understand this critical crossroads that will bring the world to WWIII. Perhaps you will understand that there is a lot more to Ukraine than the fake news presents. We face a crisis where there are people who once again think they know better than everyone else and that they alone have the answer as to how the world should work. They are the typical academic economists who think that the business cycle is nonsense and that they can temper, control, and manipulate society into a perfect state of harmony.

What 2032 represents is the complete collapse in government precisely as we saw with the American Revolution which brought the downfall of the monarchy. This was the birth of republics once again and we will move back to a new form of government that may be hard to visualize. The current system of socialism is collapsing. Politicians only know how to bribe people for votes rather than present themselves as efficient managers of the state. Socialism has allowed the invasion of all of our rights. They can put in a billionaire’s tax and everyone will cheer. You then must file revealing your wealth to prove you are not a billionaire. Every regulative imposition on one group necessitates the same control on everyone else.

I hope that when the system falls like a tree being sawed off at its base, it will fall in the direction of democracy rather than a republic. But all forms of government will be confronted with a new wave of change.

Oct 27 2021

The Cycle of Everything


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Oct 26, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do you think only the left is evil?

FG

ANSWER: Of course not. If you understand cycles, markets go up, and then they go down. It is NEVER a one-way street. Politics is the same. Sometimes the Democrats are in power, and then it flips to Republicans (Conservative v Labour). If you go to the extreme far-right, you end up at the same place as the extreme far left; the only difference is their reasoning. Both will oppose their opponents.

This is what cycles are about. I would no more support the extreme right as I would the extreme left. Civilization works ONLY when LIBERTY prevails. Once one side demands their opponent must conform to their ideas, the very purpose of civilization no longer exists. If we are not respectful of one another’s rights, then we must also surrender all our rights.

If you understand cycles, we buy in bull markets and sell in bear markets. You will lose everything if you take only one side and ignore the trends. Politics is the same. During the 19th century, the Democrats were the slave owners. Agendas and principles always change with the cycles.