This coming week is what we would call in horse racing a trifecta with former FBI director James Comey’s testimony, the U.K. election, and the ECB monetary-policy meeting. Then our capital flow models seem to be picking up European buying of both US shares and bonds taking advantage of a rally in the Euro. The big money seems to have no faith in the Euro and is looking at rallies as an opportunity to divest more out of Europe.

On Friday, the government bonds remained in rally mode, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield to a seven-month low as American pundits on Wall Street keep rubbing their eyes to make sure they are really awake. Stocks up and bonds up is a very strange thing for them to experience. The simultaneous run-up in stocks along with government paper has many just scratching their head. Does this mean the Fed will not raise rate? They are hard pressed for explanations when they only look domestically.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell from -2.17% to 2.15%, which is its lowest level since mid November. Even the Dow is starting to make new all-time highs at the same time.  Some have watched the unemployment number drop to a 16-year low at 4.3%. Some just think that equity and bond investors are not talking to each other and have been looking at different data. The bond pundits are watching the jobs numbers. Wall Street is pricing in two additional increases to benchmark interest rates in 2017. Others fear that Trump is in trouble and this puts at risk his whole agenda of deregulation, tax cuts and an increase to infrastructure spending, had tempered policy expectations.

The uninformed analysts actually think that weaker numbers will cause Congress to get behind Trump and push his agenda forward. That seems to be the least likely outcome. The likelihood of Republicans getting their act together when the smell blood in the White House is highly unlikely. Politics and posturing always come before the people.

The bottom line? Simply, we show capital inflows were running rather strong with Europeans looking to buy the bargains and china attacked the shorts in the yuan because of too much capital outflows. It may be a Comey testimony where he can say whatever he wants and the press will take it and run. But in Europe, the risk of the ECB collapsing is rising and this is why the sudden move to create a consolidated bond for Europe to find buyers to sell off what the ECB has bought and for European states to find funding when the ECB stops buying.

COMMENT: Well Mr. Armstrong, perhaps you are wrong at last. It looks like your meetings in Brussels that quite a few people noted you shuffling around town did have an impact. Looks like your constant warning about the structure of the euro’s failure is being corrected. Looks like you did make a difference. So congratulations on being wrong I suppose.

WH

ANSWER: Perhaps. But it has taken 20 years to make this point. Granted, the recent proposal to create a debt for the Eurozone is a compromise, but it is still not a consolidation of the national debts of Europe. This new compromise proposal from the EU Commission shows that they are listening at last but not for the reason I have been warning about. However, I would not say I am wrong. What I have always said is only when the collapse becomes eminent do we see the political change. My point is no change comes without the pain and typically only with the crash and burn. People who want to pretend they are advisors to government are usually bullshit artists. Government will NEVER listen to anyone if you try to get them to act without pain. Now this maneuver is not what it appears. It’s a bailout for the ECB.

The EU Commission intends to issue securities that “bundle” the entire Eurozone debt. So in other words, these will be the CDO instruments for Europe. Instead of bundling mortgages and assuming that the collective process will somehow be worth more than the individual parts, that is the compromise here. The securities are to be launched on the market as a “European Safe Asset” in order to attract the euro government bonds to investors. This is not quite what I had proposed from the outset. My proposal was they should have consolidated all the debt at the beginning, thereafter each member state would issue its own state debt as in the USA. But they were trying to sell the idea that a single currency would produce a single interest rate for all. That is what I warned them would NEVER HAPPEN.

This comprise proposal is ​​consolidating government bonds into asset backed securities (ABS). This is intended to pack the national government bonds into securities in order to ensure the financing of the states even after the end of the ECB’s buying-up program. Draghi has created a huge problem buying 40% of the government bonds. Who will buy when the ECB stops?

This is the crash and burn. The EU officials hope and pray that this scheme will increase the demand for governments’ debts of the weaker economies within the Eurozone. They also hope that this will secure the reserves of the European banks where right now a good stiff wind will blow them over. This, they hope and pray, will better diversify bank risks by diversifying their portfolios and ignoring political problems emerging in the south.

This is still a half-hearted measure to move toward federalization of Europe without consolidating the debts, which they fear will still be rejected by the North v the South. Wolfgang Schäuble had said that he no longer opposes a transferunion in principle and this ABS market has dropped sharply post-2007 because it was a subprime crisis. So here the same idea behind the mortgage crisis is being applied to the European debt. What is dangerous here is that the opposite of the original idea behind a single currency will unfold. Originally, they pitched that a single currency would create a single interest rate look at the United States. I warned that was only federally and you had to pick up the rug to see that the 50 states were subject to their own credit rating. Under this scheme, the idea of creating an ABS instead of consolidating the debt runs the risk that countries like Germany will find themselves (1) no longer the target for a capital flight among Eurozone states, and (2) that the overall interest rate will rise because of the lower quality being included. Therefore, you will not achieve the lowest rate for all as initially proposed back in the ’90s, but rates will rise to reflect the risks in Southern Europe.

While this EU initiative is designed to prepare for the time when the ECB stops its Quantitative Easing that has trapped the ECB and Draghi is pleading for help Behind the Curtain. They are hoping and praying that this is the solution to defuse the ECB risk of its absurd policies. Like the worst trader who buys and never defines where he is wrong, Draghi has made that same mistake. There is a major risk that the ECB itself can collapse.

The EU officials are still shaking in their boots with regard to Italy and the Movementso Cinque Stelli (Five Star Movement). If Italy pulls out of the Euro, the ECB can collapse. The EU feels comfortable about Merkel winning the Bundestag election in Germany. They are still concerned about Italy, Greece, and a split in Spain. One goes, and then all will go.

This compromise proposal to create an ABS  is being put forth because of the German resistance to Eurobonds. The crisis is coming to a head for when the ECB quantitative easing ends, the interest rates will be substantially higher and the budgets of member states will explode beyond set limits. They are beginning to see that the ECB will soon face difficulties for as rates rise, the value of their bond holdings will drop like a stone. I have warned that the ECB is the one central bank that can collapse thanks to Draghi.

The EU Commission is also working on a proposal to establish a joint budget for the Eurozone, which is the end game of federalization. The aim was to cement the monetary union in place and thereby prevent any more BREXIT nonsense from their view. This has risen to the top of considerations with the French presidential election and the victory of Macron. But France is in trouble. There is no money to fund what Macron promised. This becomes another patch to try to keep a failed system together.

This is why I am holding the July 22nd, 2017 seminar just on the Eurozone at the end of July. The details and tickets will go up for sale this week. This will be reasonable for it is only a half-day. The price of a seat will be $350

QUESTION: First question: Disappointed I have not heard an opinion concerning OPEC’s continuation of reducing oil out put. Can the US shale drillers fill the void and or can the Canadian and Mexican producers ramp up any shortfall into the US

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have read where some people are claiming this “Shari’ah Standard on Gold” will become the new “reserve currency” and this seems really just nuts. I understand there are 2 billion Muslims in the world, but they seem to forget that this is once again wild speculation. Any thoughts?

OP

ANSWER: No. This is really rather absurd. First of all, not even the Euro could displace the dollar nor the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and yet some meager 2 million average citizens will do so? I really hate to burst these people’s bubble in La-La-Land, but I have been in meeting and there are people in Washington who are trying to figure out how to get the dollar to be replaced somehow. The last failed attempt was the Plaza Accord in 1985 intended to push the dollar down and the Euro was born there and then. This is when James Baker encouraged Europe to create a single currency to “PLEASE” compete with the dollar. Every Administration has wanted a lower dollar to increase exports. Trump is no different. Sorry – they ALL HAVE FAILED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Secondly, this is really nuts and the very same hype I recall from 1975 when Americans were for the first time legally going to be able to buy gold starting January 1st and that is when gold futures began as well in New York. What happened? The hype drove the price of gold up to nearly $200 and on January 1st, 1975, it began a crash by almost 50% into 1976 for 21 months. They said the same thing about China and how the Chinese demand would make gold soar. Then they said the same thing about India and now its the Muslims. They keep switching groups to sell people gold like some used car salesman. In any other field it’s called consumer fraud.

Gold will rally ONLY when people begin to see that governments are failing. I am not talking about my readers. We all see what is coming. I am talking about the AVERAGE person on the street. Then you will see the gold breakout. We are getting closing. Patience is required when it comes to gold

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

ANSWER: The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio known as CAPE,  is a particular PE ratio invented by Robert Shiller of Yale University. Unlike his index on real estate, this one tracking the period of 1870 to date is not very good. True, on will arrive at one of two conclusions that either the CAPE today is near the same level as in 1929, or it is higher today than it was just before the Panic of 2008. Does this really mean anything? Absolutely not!

When we filter this purely domestic view through the currency and capital flows, these two events are exactly opposite of each other. In 1929, the capital inflows were pouring into the USA whereas in 2008 then were exiting. The 2000 Dot.COM Bubble took place with a capital inflow.

The important difference is always the currency. Great bubbles unfold only when foreign capital is pouring into a domestic market. This is when the Japanese Nikkei Bubble took place in 1989. The capital left the USA as the Plaza Accord was pronouncing they wanted the dollar down by 40% to help trade. The swing in capital back to Japan looks like the brain wave of a real crazy person.

There is a risk of correction in the US Share Market after May. But this has nothing to do with the PE Ratio. We are looking at capital flows and that is the real key. The attempt by the Washington Post and New York Times to stir up a coup to oust Donald Trump will have far greater impact on the dollar and US assets than the PE Ratio, which is a very myopic domestic view.