Failure of Abenomics


Abe Prime Minister Shinzo

Abenomics (アベノミクス Abenomikusu ?) in Japan are the economic policies advocated by Shinzō Abe since the December 2012 general election, which elected Abe to his second term as Prime Minister of Japan. Abenomics is based upon “three arrows” of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms. This has been a complete failure as the economy continue to implode. The Bank of Japan hinted possible proposals to take rates even further negative and the likelihood banks passing these levels on to the general public.

IBJYVJ-Y 4-23-2016

The dollar rallied against the yen right on target for 43 months (8.6 / 2), and has declined about 8.6 months from the high in June of 2015. It appears to be on target and the latest suggestion of further negative rates being passed on by the banks will most likely cause a flight from the yen besides admitting Abenomics has failed. This has also contributed to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising and holding last year’s low distinct from the S&P500 and NASDAQ.

What Are Tangible Assets


Assets Tangibile

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

In your April 20 blog post, you stated “You are better off with tangible assets for the transition when it comes.

Please explain what “tangible” assets are, and what “non-tangible” assets are, assuming these also exist.

Thanks for the wonderful education,
M.

ANSWER: Tangible Assets are non debt related – fixed assets in general. This includes commodities, equities, and real estate. The commodities include non-perishable such as gold, silver, platinum, copper, etc.. The agricultural commodities are not really sustainable on a long-term basis. The primary advantage to silver and gold is that they are the same commodity in different nations where as you have even difference between Texas and Brent crude oil. Real estate varies depending upon location. You definitely have two problems. First, there is the risk of tax increases, and Second, there is the geopolitical risk in some areas. Equities (shares in public corporations), serve well and blue chips have never defaulted. Even if a company goes bust, you get something back. When government debt goes bust, you get nothing.

Illinois is Brooke and Cannot Pay the Politicians


Muger Leslie

I have warned that Illinois is on the brink of bankruptcy. Now, Illinois Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger says she will delay monthly paychecks for lawmakers and statewide officials since there isn’t enough money to pay the state’s bills and other services should come first. This is really interesting. What will happen next when the politicians cannot get paid?

Negative Interest Rates Destroying the World Economy


Negative-Rates

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I think I am starting to see the light you have been shining. Negative interest rates really are “completely insane”. I also now see that months after you wrote about central banks were trapped, others are now just starting to entertain the idea. Is this distinct difference in your views that eventually become adopted with time because you were a hedge fund manager?

Just curious;

Bob

Summers-Larry-CareerANSWER: I believe the answer is rather simple. How can anyone pretend to be analysts if they have never traded? It would be like a man writing a book explaining how it feels to give birth. You cannot analyze what you have never done. It is just impossible. Those who cannot teach and those who can just do. Negative interest rates are fueling deflation. People have less income to spend so how is this beneficial? The Fed always needed 2% inflation. The father of negative interest rates is Larry Summers. He teaches or has been in government. He is not a trader and is clueless about how markets function. I warned that this idea of negative interest rates was very dangerous.

Yes, I have warned that the central banks are trapped. Their QE policies have totally failed. There were numerous “analysts” without experience calling for hyperinflation, collapse of the dollar, yelling the Fed is increasing the money supply so buy gold. The inflation never appeared and gold declined. Their reasoning was so far off the mark exactly as people like Larry Summers. These people become trapped in their own logic it becomes irrational gibberish. They only see one side of the coin and ignore the rest.

Central banks have lost all ability to manage the economy even in theory thanks to this failed reasoning. They have bought-in the bonds and are unable to ever resell them again. If they reverse their policy of QE and negative interest rates, government debt explodes with insufficient buyers. If the central banks refuse to reverse this crazy policy of QE and negative interest rates they will see a massive capital flight from government to the private sector once the MAJORITY realize the central banks are incapable of any control.

alarm_clockTime ClockThe central banks have played a very dangerous game and lost. It appears we are facing the collapse of Social Security which began August 14th, 1935 (1935.619) because they stuffed with government debt and robbed the money for other things. Anyone else would go to prison for what politicians have done and prosecutors would never defend the people because they want to become famous politicians. We will probably see the end of this Social Security program by 2021.772 (October 9th, 2021), or about 89 weeks into the next business cycle. These people are completely incompetent to manage the economy and we are delusional to think people with no experience as a trader can run things. If you have never traded, you have no busy trying to “manipulate” society with you half-baked theories. So yes. The central banks are trapped. They have lost ALL power. It becomes just a matter of time as the clock ticks and everyone wakes up and say: OMG!

Roman-Army

We have government addicted to borrowing and if rates rise, then everything will explode in their face. Western Civilization is finished as we know it just as Communism collapsed because we too subscribe to the theory of Marx that government is capable of managing the economy. Just listen to the candidates running for President. They are all preaching Marx. Vote for me and I will force the economy to do this. IMPOSSIBLE! We have debt which is unsustainable the further you move away from the United States which is the core economy such as emerging markets. Unfunded pensions destroyed the Roman Empire. We are collapsing in the very same manner and for the very same reason. We are finishing a very very very important report on the whole pension crisis issue worldwide.

Bundesbank Bank’s Thiele Against Electronic Money


Thiele Carl-Ludwig

The Bundesbank (German Central Bank) has come out opposed to eliminating cash. During the pre-Euro years, the Bundesbank was providing us with inside info on the Euro preparations because they were outright against it. Those who always hate central banks do not realize that they are not always what it seems. The Bundesbank is now clearly positioning itself against the drive to eliminate cash. Carl-Ludwig Thiele said this past week at an event in Berlin that the attempt to abolish and criminalize cash is out of line with freedom. He said that citizens should continue to decide how and in what form they want to use their money.

Thiele’s main arguments were:

  • Every citizen has the right, with his money to proceed as he wants. If action is taken at this point in the right to freedom of the citizen, it must be well-grounded. And so the question arises: How does a cash limit restrict crime in other countries? Thiele said he was not aware of any support where a cash limit, such as Italy or France, prevents crime. Crime should be correspondingly lower than in countries with no upper limit on cash, but that is simply not the case
  • The arguments that are made against cash and cash payments, are unconvincing, Thiele said. He went on to argue that cash protects the privacy of the population. That benefit is not a reason to twist into a benefit for criminal ignoring the majority of honest citizens. The right to informational self-determination and respect for private life is a valuable asset which should not be watered down or abandoned. “Cash is coined liberty” – this modified Dostoevsky quote has not lost any of its validity.

European Court of Justice say Banks Cannot Rely on Secrecy Laws to Deny Taxes


General view of the buildings of the Court of Justice of the European Communities

General view of the buildings of the Court of Justice of the European Communities

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has stated that banking secrecy established in Austria cannot be relied upon by German Bank branches in Austria to defeat tax authorities. Branches of German credit institutions in Austria must therefore provide information on accounts and assets to German tax authorities if a German customer is deceased to allow Germany to get inheritance taxes. The highest German tax court, the Bundesfinanzhof in Munich, had gone to the ECJ after the Sparkasse Allgäu refused to reveal to the tax office disclosing all account balances of their deceased clients. The hunt for money is endless. Whatever may have been the rule of law is pealed away when they are desperate for money.

Meanwhile, the United States also wants inheritance tax on Canadians who simply own property in the United States even if they are Canadian only. This entire turn of events going after inheritance taxes of non-citizens and the ECJ ruling that the laws of one country cannot block inheritance taxes in another continues to reveal the desperate increase in taxation.

The Other Side of a Phase Transition


BoilingCurve

QUESTION:

Dear Marty,

Whether in a Phase-transition or a Slingshot Move in the Dow, you made it very clear that such moves will be driven by capital inflows to the USA due to the alternative flight to quality to the private sector, both internationally and domestically. It is now just so obvious, it is unfolding in front of our eyes.

The question, however, will be whether capital will remain parked there for long time, or else leave abruptly to go elsewhere? For as high as it can go, that market sooner or later will eventually run out of steam, just like any other system. We are now focusing on the flows towards it, but can you please shed a light on what will come next? Will there be a trade to the downside too? Where will all that capital go at that point, simply repatriate, go to Asia? Your knowledge and wisdom on this would be highly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.
SB

ANSWER: What goes up must also come down. A Phase Transition is the culmination of a collapse in public confidence which is now rising before our eyes.. The question really becomes rather blunt. Will we simply readjust? Or will we crash and burn? This appears to be the end result of socialism. Therefore, we are more likely to see at this time a collapse of the world monetary system. A rise in the dollar will break the back of the US economy and that is what is needed to create the next step toward monetary reform.

WorldEconomy

We are most likely going to see a new monetary system where the dollar will no longer be the reserve currency. That will probably become some form of a basket. This is the collapse of the West just as Communism collapsed and altered the course of China and Russia. Therefore, we are looking at the shift of the financial capitol of the world from the West to the East dominated in India/China. As we can see, the financial Capitol of the World always migrates.  After Rome and the fall of Byzantium, the capital moved to India. It then moved to China. When Christopher Columbus set sail, he was trying to get to India because that was where all the money was. You do not set sail to be to a slum in a third world country. Europe was rising, but it had been reduced to a third world status.

Priebus ReinceThe other side of a Phase Transition will be the fall of the West. That is just how things evolve. We are plagued with politicians who are incapable of making any changes to save the country because they are too busy grabbing the free soap in the hotel room. Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus responded to Donald Trump’s recent complaints that the nominating process is rigged against him by saying: “Give us all a break.” Priebus demonstrated by his response that the game is rigged. He said: “Nomination process known for a year + beyond. It’s the responsibility of the campaigns to understand it. Complaints now? Give us all a break.”  Priebus is an American attorney and politician so he is a trained and know how to lie when necessary. Note what he says: “Give me a Break”. He does not deny anything nor does he say Trump is wrong. He simply says they rigged the voting system more than one year ago so why complain now. This is a typical response designed to fool the majority as if Trump is wrong. All he is saying you knew this was the game so it is not fair to complain now after a year has passed. Priebus did not deny anything Trump had to say. He only said you did not complain soon enough. This is like someone who robs you and they justify keep your goods claiming you should have complained before. Yes, Priebus, give us a break from this clever double-talk. Unfortunately, this is the classic example of how dishonest politicians have become. There is no honor nor is there any accountability. They will distort and twist things around right before your eyes and do not care because the media will never analyze what they just said. This is why we just have to crash and burn. We cannot reform with people like this trying to maintain an unfair system.

China’s Coming Gold Fix April 19th, 2016


China Gold Fix.jpg - R

Next week, China will begin its competition with London & New York and attempt to create the equivalent of the London gold fix but in Chinese yuan on April 19th. Of course the gold bugs are misrepresenting this as some dollar killer. Top Chinese banks, alongside Standard Chartered and ANZ, will be among 18 members to join a new yuan-denominated gold benchmark that signals China’s biggest step towards making the yuan convertible. By creating a yuan based gold fix, this is a back-door to floating the yuan itself. It will allow for arbitrage in currency so you can go long or short gold in dollars and the opposite in yuan and you have then created a yuan contract.

For years, these people spinning stories such as how “paper gold” was evil, failed completely to comprehend how the market even functions. OPEC nations who could not earn interest religiously, bought gold and then sold it forward. They were not interested in gold, it was the means to earn interest without calling it interest. This is what gave gold the liquidity that other commodities did not. It was an interest play for decades. Creating a yuan based gold fix is once again not about gold but about a test for floating the yuan. Sophisticated players will use this for the currency and China will monitor the trading as a test case for floating the currency. This is the small step forward. China has to float its currency or it will NEVER make it to the big leagues. Capital has to freely be able to move in and out without applying for permission to enter and leave.

So now these people spinning this story show their ignorance. They say no dollars allowed, as if this is some war that will destroy the dollar. China dollar reserves are over $3 trillion. Why would they try to make those reserves worthless? If they wanted to hurt the dollar, then convert the $3 trillion into something else. But what? Rubles? Gold is not easily transportable for international settlements among nations and are such is such a tiny fraction of world capital flows (less than 1%), that converting it gold would isolate their economy. These claims only reveal their lack of comprehension of how the economy even functions.

Those who are screaming gold will now go to $64,000 an ounce for this is making the yuan a gold backed currency, only demonstrate how ignorant they are when it comes to international finance. It was during the 19th century when the Silver Democrats tried to fix the silver at 16:1 relative to gold seriously over pricing it relative to where it traded in Europe. That resulted in silver being attracted to the USA and gold fleeing the country. This is why the USA entered a 26 year depression and ended up virtually bankrupt when J.P. Morgan had to arrange for a gold loan in 1896 to save the country. Here is the English magazine Puck showing America drowning in silver by their stupid attempt to overvalue silver relative to gold because the miners paid off the Democrats just as the bankers do today.

If China even dared to attempt to make gold some absurd price well above the world price, they would be bankrupted in a matter of weeks. Everyone would sell their gold to China and return with dollars. You could then just wait for the collapse and buy back the gold at the world price. Any attempt by any government to FIX THE PRICE or gold far above the world price is precisely converting gold to FIAT defined as dictating the price disconnected from reality of the free market.

So anyone claiming gold will rise to some absurd number, just ask them will they buy it from you at 10% or 5% of that number now and ask them how much do they want? I could easily deliver any quantity at 10% or 5% of such a price of $30,000, $50,000, $64,000, or $100,000. I will be glad to sell them an option at those prices. As the TV show use to be say: Let’s Make a Deal. The question really is; Do they honestly believe this BS? Or are they paid by people to try to sell dreams like swamp land in Florida?

IRS Helps Illegal Aliens use Stolen Social Securities Numbers


J100

 

One of the reforms we have presented in our Solution is why income taxes have become obsolete and should be eliminated. The only people who pay income taxes are citizens and green card holders. Illegal aliens need not apply. Elizabeth Warren has introduced an idea that would allow U.S. taxpayers to have the government do their taxes for them—for free. Since the government tracks everything, they already get reports from employers and banks and match everything up to check what people claim on their returns. Warren proposes that people should not have to file a return and let the government simply calculate your income tax. The interesting aspect is you really do not have to pay your taxes. They cannot imprison you for that. The prison is the FAILURE TO FILE. You can say look I owe you $2 million but I cannot pay. They will hunt down all accounts, freeze what they can, but they cannot imprison you for an inability to pay. So if she eliminates the need to file, she decriminalizes the income tax.

IRS-buildingYet this difference between a citizen/green card holder and an illegal alien is important. Aliens do not have to pay taxes. Those looking to establish themselves in the USA use real Social Security numbers often of dead people. The IRS has admitted it even encourages illegal aliens to use stolen SS numbers. Forbes has reported on this issue and it is shocking. The IRS wants illegal immigrants to illegally use Social Security numbers and admitted that before Congress. IRS Commissioner John Koskinen shocked everyone responding to a question from Sen. Dan Coats (R-Indiana) at a Senate Finance Committee meeting. The question asked was effectively if the IRS was collaborating with taxpayers who file tax returns using fraudulent information? The IRS admitted that it processes tax returns even with false W-2 information and issue refunds as if they were routine tax returns. The IRS actually ignores any notification from the Social Security Administration that a name does not match a Social Security number. The IRS justifies its policy saying that as long as the information is being used only to fraudulently obtain jobs, the IRS was perfectly fine with that. The Commissioner even went further stating that the IRS actually had an interest in helping the illegal immigrants to pay taxes. So much for terrorism. Just show me the money should be their slogan.

The SEC & NYC Going Crazy on Contempt of Court; Stay Out of NYC they are out for ALL your money!


walker

Judge John Walker, Jr

Just-usThe Second Circuit back in March refused to reverse a contempt order imposed on an allegedly recidivist stock fraudster. What is amazing is Judge John Walker, Jr, Bush’s cousin,  grabbed his appeal and really abused his power. This guy should be driven from the court with tar & feathers like in the old days. Edward A. Durante, was sued by the SEC over a purported stock manipulation scheme involving Internet technology company Wamex Holdings Inc. Durante’s challenged the contempt order stating the contempt is not supported by clear and convincing evidence. No contempt in New York city ever complies with the constitution in federal court that I have ever seen.

ContemptDurante plead guilty to criminal charges based on the same conduct and was imprisoned from 2002 to 2009. He had paid over $35 million in assets handing them to his former attorneys in 2002 for restitution in the criminal case. He argued that the SEC has failed to show he had not been compliant with the government. The SEC contended that Durante was still on the hook for over $25 million to them. Durante argued that the default judgment was ambiguous, since it purported to be a disgorgement order yet also required Durante to turn over assets already seized by and relinquished to the government. Durante claimed he had already marshaled his assets for the government before his sentencing in 2003, and said SEC lawyers affirmatively represented to him in 2004 that the judgment was satisfied.

Nevertheless, Judge Walker found that because the default judgment instructed Durante to pay the funds to the “clerk of court”, any disgorgement by assignment or transfer of assets to a third party was irrelevant. So in other words, every agency can go after you for the same amount of money because Walker effectively held that if you paid even in full to one agency, it does not matter and cannot be credited toward another. There is absolutely no foundation in law for Judge Walker’s abusive pro-government decision.

Now this week, another contempt was imposed in New York City federal court confirming anyone who has any account tied to a New York entity should get the hell out of town and fast.  New York U.S. District Judge Paul A. Engelmayer on Tuesday said the founder of defunct hedge fund ThinkStrategy Capital Management LLC, who owes the SEC and others nearly $30 million, is still in contempt of court and must remain incarcerated indefinitely. Engelmayer said he was troubled by the lack of effort on the part of Chetan Kapur to show that he doesn’t have access to significant assets or to help his attorneys gain access to an email account which may shed light on whether or not he has funds in overseas bank accounts. In other words, he is in prison and will not be released until he PROVES he has no money overseas. The SEC has flipped the law so you are now guilty until you prove yourself innocent.

Now Kapur’s lawyers are considering taking legal action in D.C. federal court to compel the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) to release the information from the Panama Papers on Kapur so they can prove this negative. So the ICIJ have all these documents which they are REFUSING to release probably because it impacts people they support like Hillary, and the public really does not know the full truth. This case may be very interesting since the only way for Kapur to now get out of prison is to prove he does not have funds overseas. Contempt is supposed to be “coercive” so this requires you to do something that the court “knows” you can do. To imprison someone indefinitely because he “might” have funds overseas you do not know about is exactly opposite of the law and violates human rights. You cannot prove a negative and there is no possible way any federal judge in New York would ever believe a citizen over the government. It will NEVER happen. There have been a few exceptions of an honest judge. But they are rare indeed.

No one should have any account in New York City simply because they can do whatever they want and you have no chance of going to court and getting a fair heading against any of the New York bankers. Just stay the hell out of that town. MY STRONGEST ADVICE – DO NOT HAVE ANY ACCOUNT WITH ANY INSTITUTION DOMICILED WITH ITS HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK CITY. The Southern District of New York will protect the banks 120% against any customer. Deal ONLY with institutions domiciled in other states (NOT A BRANCH OF A NEW YORK BANK OR BROKER). It is impossible to obtain a fair trial in NYC and Judge Walker will deny you a trial under the pretense that a judge’s personal desire for power supersedes the constitution and still has the powers to act as they did under King George III. In other words, the American Revolution did not change any powers of a judge. Congress passed a limited to civil contempt of 18 months imprisonment maximum, 28 USC 1826. Judge Walker has ruled judges have “inherent” power that Congress cannot override and due process of law has no restraining impact.