Tag Archives: Qatar – Turkey Pipeline

Jun 5 2017

Taxes & Disasters – Always Repeat


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate

RE-Posted Jun 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You wrote that the 1906 San Francisco earthquake resulted in the Panic of 1907 and laid the foundation for creating the Federal Reserve. I was also told that the Kobe earthquake in Japan is what resulted in the Barclay’s loss. Is this why you also input natural disasters into your model? Has this been a pattern throughout history?

Thanks

PD

ANSWER: Absolutely. It is certain that when the eruption of Vesuvius started on the morning of August 24th, AD 79, it caught the local population utterly unprepared. The Emperor Titus has just taken the throne following his father’s death on June 24th, 79. Like Presidents will visit some disaster like Katrina, Titus visited the Pompeii area, announced a state of emergency and set up a relief fund. He then created a fund for the victims by collecting all property of those who died with no heirs. He convert this into a join fund. He then provided for assistance in rehousing survivors. The Christians attributed this to God’s retribution for the destruction of the Great Temple in Jerusalem in 70AD.

The while Titus was viewing the Pompeii disaster, a fire ravaged Rome for three days. Once more the emperor provided generous relief to the victims. And then a third disaster struck – plague. This was one of the worst epidemics of plague on record that hit Rome. Titus tried his best to combat the disease with medical support, and also staging extensive daily sacrifices to the gods. The economy went into a financial panic. As the Empire State Building had begun construction before the 1929 Crash, here too the Colosseum had been begun under his father. In both cases, the Empire State Building and the Colosseum were opening in an economic depression in hopes of raising spirits.

It was a tsunami that wiped out Tokyo in 1923. Then there have been huge earthquakes that sank Alexandria, Egypt, which spawned a huge tremendous tsunami that devastated Sicily and Greece on July 21st, 365AD. Edward Gibbon wrote in his Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:

“In the second year of the reign of Valentinian and Valens, on the morning of the twenty-first day of July, the greatest part of the Roman world was shaken by a violent and destructive earthquake. The impression was communicated to the waters; the shores of the Mediterranean were left dry, by the sudden retreat of the sea; great quantities of fish were caught with the hand; large vessels were stranded on the mud; and a curious spectator ^1 amused his eye, or rather his fancy, by contemplating the various appearance of valleys and mountains, which had never, since the formation of the globe, been exposed to the sun. But the tide soon returned, with the weight of an immense and irresistible deluge, which was severely felt on the coasts of Sicily, of Dalmatia, of Greece, and of Egypt: large boats were transported, and lodged on the roofs of houses, or at the distance of two miles from the shore; the people, with their habitations, were swept away by the waters; and the city of Alexandria annually commemorated the fatal day, on which fifty thousand persons had lost their lives in the inundation. This calamity, the report of which was magnified from one province to another, astonished and terrified the subjects of Rome; and their affrighted imagination enlarged the real extent of a momentary evil. They recollected the preceding earthquakes, which had subverted the cities of Palestine and Bithynia: they considered these alarming strokes as the prelude only of still more dreadful calamities, and their fearful vanity was disposed to confound the symptoms of a declining empire and a sinking world.”

That event sent the empire into crisis and necessitated the biggest tax increase in Roman history up to that point in history. To pay for the disaster and the rising costs of the military efforts required during his time in reconstruction and defense, Valentinian saw himself forced to introduce the highest, and most oppressive Roman taxes in history. He was keenly aware how bad this was and raised the taxes reluctantly. He then made a interesting sincere effort to protect the poor. In an attempt to share the financial burdens more justly he made great efforts to ensure that the privileged few would no longer avoid paying their taxes. He also created the office of ‘Defender of the People’, the role of which was to assist the poor. In every town such a Defender was appointed, empowered to protect the interests of the poor from infringements by the privileged classes and to ensure they were not bankrupted by the taxes.

Here we have a weight (exaqium) for measuring gold solidi for taxes. Because of the large number of under-weight and false solidi in circulation, financial reforms were instituted by Valentinian i and Valens whereby gold collected in taxation was to be melted into ingots and tested before acceptance. Coins ceased to be legal tender (acceptable for taxation). The few gold ingots that have survived from antiquity are found with official counterstamps and the present example illustrated here bears the inscription “melted by Proculus”.

So you see, history repeats because the passions of man never change. Emperors created relief funds and visited disaster sites in ancient times and they do today. It is just standard operational procedure.

Jun 4 2017

Macron – False Hope for Europe


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Jun 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Those who think that the election of Emmanuel Macron to the Presidency of France is the savior of the Euro probably believe that politicians are really there for the people rather than themselves. Macron’s idea of federalizing Europe some call the “transfer-union” is politically never going to happen. The EU is being torn apart at the seams for centralized government dictating to an economy and regulating everything just does not work. Ask Russia and China.

Socialism is the same as Communism, with the minor distinction that you formally own your property, but are regulated and taxed so you are still not “free” to do as you like. To a large degree socialism is worse for you have to fill out forms and pretend that your vote will actually change something – when they do not listen anyway.

The federalization of Europe dictated from Brussels cannot work. The people of Europe will NOT be happy to send 20% or so of GDP through Brussels. Unemployment is at the very best double that on the United States on average and in the South you have a 60% level of unemployment among the youth.

The “transfer-union” idea of Macron is really trying to solve France’s problems by spreading the losses to everyone else. He was the bureaucrat under Hollande and his “investment banking” experience in Paris is a joke. He understands no more about international markets than a teller at a drive up window.

This is just not going to happen! You cannot solve the problems of Europe with the very same thinking process that created it! The EU is creating the risk of a European War fueling the tensions rising from old wounds. The idea that a single government would end European War was a dream theory. The problem has been the EU mismanagement and now it’s all about forcing states to prop-up Brussels.

Jun 4 2017

Bonds & Stocks Rally – What’s Going On?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Jun 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

This coming week is what we would call in horse racing a trifecta with former FBI director James Comey’s testimony, the U.K. election, and the ECB monetary-policy meeting. Then our capital flow models seem to be picking up European buying of both US shares and bonds taking advantage of a rally in the Euro. The big money seems to have no faith in the Euro and is looking at rallies as an opportunity to divest more out of Europe.

On Friday, the government bonds remained in rally mode, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield to a seven-month low as American pundits on Wall Street keep rubbing their eyes to make sure they are really awake. Stocks up and bonds up is a very strange thing for them to experience. The simultaneous run-up in stocks along with government paper has many just scratching their head. Does this mean the Fed will not raise rate? They are hard pressed for explanations when they only look domestically.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell from -2.17% to 2.15%, which is its lowest level since mid November. Even the Dow is starting to make new all-time highs at the same time.  Some have watched the unemployment number drop to a 16-year low at 4.3%. Some just think that equity and bond investors are not talking to each other and have been looking at different data. The bond pundits are watching the jobs numbers. Wall Street is pricing in two additional increases to benchmark interest rates in 2017. Others fear that Trump is in trouble and this puts at risk his whole agenda of deregulation, tax cuts and an increase to infrastructure spending, had tempered policy expectations.

The uninformed analysts actually think that weaker numbers will cause Congress to get behind Trump and push his agenda forward. That seems to be the least likely outcome. The likelihood of Republicans getting their act together when the smell blood in the White House is highly unlikely. Politics and posturing always come before the people.

The bottom line? Simply, we show capital inflows were running rather strong with Europeans looking to buy the bargains and china attacked the shorts in the yuan because of too much capital outflows. It may be a Comey testimony where he can say whatever he wants and the press will take it and run. But in Europe, the risk of the ECB collapsing is rising and this is why the sudden move to create a consolidated bond for Europe to find buyers to sell off what the ECB has bought and for European states to find funding when the ECB stops buying.

Jun 1 2017

The Proposed Euro Bond Issue to Bailout ECB


Arstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

RE-Posted Jun 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Well Mr. Armstrong, perhaps you are wrong at last. It looks like your meetings in Brussels that quite a few people noted you shuffling around town did have an impact. Looks like your constant warning about the structure of the euro’s failure is being corrected. Looks like you did make a difference. So congratulations on being wrong I suppose.

WH

ANSWER: Perhaps. But it has taken 20 years to make this point. Granted, the recent proposal to create a debt for the Eurozone is a compromise, but it is still not a consolidation of the national debts of Europe. This new compromise proposal from the EU Commission shows that they are listening at last but not for the reason I have been warning about. However, I would not say I am wrong. What I have always said is only when the collapse becomes eminent do we see the political change. My point is no change comes without the pain and typically only with the crash and burn. People who want to pretend they are advisors to government are usually bullshit artists. Government will NEVER listen to anyone if you try to get them to act without pain. Now this maneuver is not what it appears. It’s a bailout for the ECB.

The EU Commission intends to issue securities that “bundle” the entire Eurozone debt. So in other words, these will be the CDO instruments for Europe. Instead of bundling mortgages and assuming that the collective process will somehow be worth more than the individual parts, that is the compromise here. The securities are to be launched on the market as a “European Safe Asset” in order to attract the euro government bonds to investors. This is not quite what I had proposed from the outset. My proposal was they should have consolidated all the debt at the beginning, thereafter each member state would issue its own state debt as in the USA. But they were trying to sell the idea that a single currency would produce a single interest rate for all. That is what I warned them would NEVER HAPPEN.

This comprise proposal is ​​consolidating government bonds into asset backed securities (ABS). This is intended to pack the national government bonds into securities in order to ensure the financing of the states even after the end of the ECB’s buying-up program. Draghi has created a huge problem buying 40% of the government bonds. Who will buy when the ECB stops?

This is the crash and burn. The EU officials hope and pray that this scheme will increase the demand for governments’ debts of the weaker economies within the Eurozone. They also hope that this will secure the reserves of the European banks where right now a good stiff wind will blow them over. This, they hope and pray, will better diversify bank risks by diversifying their portfolios and ignoring political problems emerging in the south.

This is still a half-hearted measure to move toward federalization of Europe without consolidating the debts, which they fear will still be rejected by the North v the South. Wolfgang Schäuble had said that he no longer opposes a transferunion in principle and this ABS market has dropped sharply post-2007 because it was a subprime crisis. So here the same idea behind the mortgage crisis is being applied to the European debt. What is dangerous here is that the opposite of the original idea behind a single currency will unfold. Originally, they pitched that a single currency would create a single interest rate look at the United States. I warned that was only federally and you had to pick up the rug to see that the 50 states were subject to their own credit rating. Under this scheme, the idea of creating an ABS instead of consolidating the debt runs the risk that countries like Germany will find themselves (1) no longer the target for a capital flight among Eurozone states, and (2) that the overall interest rate will rise because of the lower quality being included. Therefore, you will not achieve the lowest rate for all as initially proposed back in the ’90s, but rates will rise to reflect the risks in Southern Europe.

While this EU initiative is designed to prepare for the time when the ECB stops its Quantitative Easing that has trapped the ECB and Draghi is pleading for help Behind the Curtain. They are hoping and praying that this is the solution to defuse the ECB risk of its absurd policies. Like the worst trader who buys and never defines where he is wrong, Draghi has made that same mistake. There is a major risk that the ECB itself can collapse.

The EU officials are still shaking in their boots with regard to Italy and the Movementso Cinque Stelli (Five Star Movement). If Italy pulls out of the Euro, the ECB can collapse. The EU feels comfortable about Merkel winning the Bundestag election in Germany. They are still concerned about Italy, Greece, and a split in Spain. One goes, and then all will go.

This compromise proposal to create an ABS  is being put forth because of the German resistance to Eurobonds. The crisis is coming to a head for when the ECB quantitative easing ends, the interest rates will be substantially higher and the budgets of member states will explode beyond set limits. They are beginning to see that the ECB will soon face difficulties for as rates rise, the value of their bond holdings will drop like a stone. I have warned that the ECB is the one central bank that can collapse thanks to Draghi.

The EU Commission is also working on a proposal to establish a joint budget for the Eurozone, which is the end game of federalization. The aim was to cement the monetary union in place and thereby prevent any more BREXIT nonsense from their view. This has risen to the top of considerations with the French presidential election and the victory of Macron. But France is in trouble. There is no money to fund what Macron promised. This becomes another patch to try to keep a failed system together.

This is why I am holding the July 22nd, 2017 seminar just on the Eurozone at the end of July. The details and tickets will go up for sale this week. This will be reasonable for it is only a half-day. The price of a seat will be $350

Jun 1 2017

People’s Bank of China Moves Against Shorts


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

RE-Posted Jun 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

It was only last week that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) was rumoured to be competing in the currency market, which was coincidentally followed by a Moody’s downgrade. The action demonstrated signs that positions have been cut at a loss for anyone who attempted to short the Yuan. The O/N (overnight) and T/N (Tom-next) rates ballooned today which makes running currency short positions extremely expensive to finance. The currency traded from 6.85 down to below 6.77 (off-shore) as dealers scrambled to cover short positions as everyone chased for financing. The rates market moved from around 5.25% to over 21% to cover short-term (o/n and t/n) positions.
This is a popular move often undertaken by central banks if they fear the market is challenging them. The Bank of England when the GBP was forced out of the ERM raised rates to over 15% from then 11%. However, it is interesting that the options markets has (so far) seen this as a temporary move and has priced longer dated trades with only minimal impact. Many are speculating, given the new fixed approach China has taken against the USD, whether this is a friendly move to help a new President address his concerns over currency manipulation and assist a weaker USD
May 31 2017

When Does Buying Gov’t Bonds Support Corrupt Governments?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

RE-Posted May 31, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The president of Venezuela’s opposition-run Congress led by Julio Borges came out and accused Goldman Sachs of “aiding and abetting the country’s dictatorial regime” after a report that Goldman had bought $2.8 billion in bonds from the cash-strapped country at 31 cents on the dollar. They paid $865 million.

There have been two months of opposition protests against President Nicolas Maduro in which almost 60 people have been killed. The collapse of the country’s socialist economy has left millions of people struggling to even eat. This is the problem with “socialism” that it is incapable of managing the economy from any centralized government. They hate people who make money, but government is just incompetent to manage anything. It takes an individual on the front lines to manage any operation.

I personally experienced this in my own company. When I first began to open offices overseas, it was a disaster. It was impossible to manage the offices from the United States. I had to switch to partnerships where people had to put up money and run offices in different countries. When their own capital was on the line, then they managed their local operation efficiently. Even the same centralized planning does not work in corporations. This is why big corporations die. They become inefficient and too bureaucratic just like governments and die.

Julio Borges wrote a letter to Goldman Goldman Sachs President Lloyd Blankfein:

“Goldman Sachs’ financial lifeline to the regime will serve to strengthen the brutal repression unleashed against the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans peacefully protesting for political change in the country.”

“Given the unconstitutional nature of Nicolas Maduro’s administration, its unwillingness to hold democratic elections and its systematic violation of human rights, I am dismayed that Goldman Sachs decided to enter this transaction.”

Julio Borges is absolutely correct. But this is not unique to Goldman Sachs. Everyone who buys government debt is helping to sustain the socialistic agendas of the major Western countries and will pay dearly for this support since historically they are the people/firms who are wiped out in the end.

Goldman may think it is getting a great deal at 31 cents on the dollar. They assume if there is a revolution they will still get paid. They are dead wrong. You can buy plenty of government bonds that were defaulted on. They make great reminders that government debt is UNSECURED and becomes worthless.

Venezuela has been a country that historically has been a serial defaulter. Defaults have taken place in 1826, 1848, 1860, 1865, 1892, 1898, 1982, 1990, 1995–1997, 1998, and 2004. The likelihood of another default is EXTREMELY HIGH.

Goldman assumes they will have access to the White House to freeze Venezuelan assets in the USA to get paid. If there is a revolution and the the army finally switches sides because they see their own future is doomed, then everything will change. Dictators need money to pay troops to maintain control. When the money runs out, so will their support

May 30 2017

Beware the Muni Bond Bubble


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

Municipal Bonds are in trouble in Europe as well as the United States. The local level cannot print money, nor are they ever capable of managing their economies. The general view is when short, just raise taxes. Everything comes to an end and we are looking at the end of a Muni-Bond Bubble. The strongest possible recommendation is get out before it is too late. Sure, not every municipality or state/province is in trouble – YET! Once the muni bond bubble bursts, there will be a contagion so even the ones that are not yet insolvent will tip over.

In the States, sell California and New England. The higher the tax rate, the deeper their debt will fall. Connecticut, for example, is hopeless as is New Jersey, New York, and just about all New England States. I was flying home from Hong Kong and upon landing in Newark, the next leg was back to Florida. I sat next to a woman from Connecticut who was going to visit her brother. She had a 1950s house 1600 square feet with taxes over $8,000 and could no longer afford to stay there for retirement. She was leaving as most people these days in what I call the Great Migration.

Connecticut’s general-obligation bonds are in deep trouble. The state’s tax collections are collapsing as people are getting out of town. Their debt is being downgraded and a $2.3 billion budget deficit is beyond hope. Tax receipts for the current fiscal year ending in June will be about $451 million short of estimates. Here too, it is the government employee pensions that are blowing everything apart at the seams. Public employees at least agreed to accept a 3-year wage freeze and to contribute more for their pension and health-care benefits under a tentative deal that would save more than $1.5 billion over the next two years. But that is just not enough.

The taxation has never been ending. Hedge fund managers are permanently relocating to Florida have been leaving New Jersey and Connecticut. When you count on taxing the rich, then one man can move out of and put the entire state budget at risk. Taxing the rich has its limits.

The motto of make the rich pay doesn’t work when the rich pick up and leave. You do not want to be the one still sitting. This game works opposite of the musical chairs game as a kid. This time, the one still sitting will have to pay the taxes for everyone who left. Then they will be unable to sell their house and leave because nobody wants to buy it because of the taxes.

May 30 2017

Oil & Pegs


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy

Re-Posted May 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: First question: Disappointed I have not heard an opinion concerning OPEC’s continuation of reducing oil out put. Can the US shale drillers fill the void and or can the Canadian and Mexican producers ramp up any shortfall into the US

Second Question: What is your opinion on the Chinese Yuan being pegged to the US dollar. In the past you have always stated that “pegs can’t survive” i.e Swiss Franc to the Euro.

ANSWER: Supply really has little to do with the price. The real issue is demand. Electric cars are coming rapidly. I have a BMW hybrid I8 sports car and it is fantastic. It is the fastest sports car I have ever owned off the line. It has two engines a gas and electric and this technology is being expanded to all models. My neighbor has a Tesla and that is fine for local use. Tesla vehicles are currently the only battery electric cars you can buy in the that have an official range of more than 200 miles per charge. When I went to Amsterdam, the taxis are Teslas. Europe is moving toward electric cars faster than the States.

Most major automakers, including GM and Volkswagen, have vowed to roll out more than one fully electric car by 2020. In Europe, the average emissions level of a new car  2015 was 130 g of CO2 per kilometre (g CO2/km) and those sold in 2016 was down to 118.1 grams. By 2021, this has to be down to 95 grams of CO2 per kilometre.

Sales of electric cars totaled over 315,000 units in 2014, up 48% from 2013 reaching 565,00 units in 2015. In the U.S. alone, 542,000 electric cars have been sold to date. Granted, that is still small in comparison to the overall number estimated to be 263.6 million cars registered in the United States in 2015. Nevertheless, the trend is in motion. Does it by itself kill oil? Not yet! This is why oil did not elect any yearly long-term bearish signals on our model.

Keep in mind there are a lot of new discoveries also in gas. Cars make up 51.4% of oil consumption and jet fuel is 12.3%. Historically, demand drops with the economy as people drive and travel less. That is clearly the trend we see ahead.

With regard to pegs, none will stand and that includes China, Hong Kong and Middle East. What will break the peg is the dollar rally for that will import deflation to those nations with dollar pegs.

 

May 29 2017

Shari’ah Standard on Gold to Replace the Dollar? Really?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted May 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have read where some people are claiming this “Shari’ah Standard on Gold” will become the new “reserve currency” and this seems really just nuts. I understand there are 2 billion Muslims in the world, but they seem to forget that this is once again wild speculation. Any thoughts?

OP

ANSWER: No. This is really rather absurd. First of all, not even the Euro could displace the dollar nor the Japanese yen, Chinese yuan and yet some meager 2 million average citizens will do so? I really hate to burst these people’s bubble in La-La-Land, but I have been in meeting and there are people in Washington who are trying to figure out how to get the dollar to be replaced somehow. The last failed attempt was the Plaza Accord in 1985 intended to push the dollar down and the Euro was born there and then. This is when James Baker encouraged Europe to create a single currency to “PLEASE” compete with the dollar. Every Administration has wanted a lower dollar to increase exports. Trump is no different. Sorry – they ALL HAVE FAILED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Secondly, this is really nuts and the very same hype I recall from 1975 when Americans were for the first time legally going to be able to buy gold starting January 1st and that is when gold futures began as well in New York. What happened? The hype drove the price of gold up to nearly $200 and on January 1st, 1975, it began a crash by almost 50% into 1976 for 21 months. They said the same thing about China and how the Chinese demand would make gold soar. Then they said the same thing about India and now its the Muslims. They keep switching groups to sell people gold like some used car salesman. In any other field it’s called consumer fraud.

Gold will rally ONLY when people begin to see that governments are failing. I am not talking about my readers. We all see what is coming. I am talking about the AVERAGE person on the street. Then you will see the gold breakout. We are getting closing. Patience is required when it comes to gold

May 28 2017

US to Sell Off its Strategic Emergency Oil Reserves


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy

RE-Posted May 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The US government plans to sell half of the Strategic Emergency Oil Reserves and gasoline. The days of OPEC embargoes of the 1970s are now long past. The government plans to increase its budget for the financial year by $500 million. Therefore, over the next decade, the government wants to increase financial leeway by as much as $16.6 billion. With the US at a net exporter level and the shift toward electric cars, it becomes questionable if we need the Strategic Emergency Oil Reserves any more.

We still see support at the $32 level on a yearly closing basis. To stabilize, we need Crude to close above the 2016 high of $54.51. Both the oscillators as well as our Energy models imply that the high is in place for the near-term in real value. As long as Crude hold above the $32 level on an annual closing basis, then moving forward in time, new highs in nominal terms becomes possible but not in real value terms.