More signs the U.S. economy is very strong show up today as several key economic indicators defy prior economist predictions.   Staring with a significant upward revision by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for the third quarter GDP growth from 1.9% to 2.1%:

The revision to GDP reflected upward revisions to inventory investment, business investment, and consumer spending.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods (notably recreational goods and vehicles as well as food and beverages) and in services (led by housing and utilities as well as food services). (link)

Additionally, the commerce department released data showing U.S. core capital goods orders increased 1.2% in November, the largest gain since January; and more data on home sales shows a whopping 31.6% increase year-over-year. 

U.S. consumers and home buyers are benefiting from low inflation and significant blue collar wage gains that are an outcome of a growing economy and a very strong jobs market.  The most significant wage growth is in non-supervisory positions.   The economic strength is broad-based and the U.S. middle-class is confident.

Well, well, well….  FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo announced this morning that her sources are saying a USMCA vote is possible next week.   This DC source reporting would align with our CTH spidey senses from the visible DC trade twitches.

Something is shaping up in the political background around the USMCA.

Yesterday Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez-Obrador (AMLO) sent a second letterto House Speaker Nancy Pelosi urging USMCA ratification.  Team Trump and Team AMLO are working together against Team Pelosi & AFL-CIO Richard Trumka.

Essentially AMLO has been saying the labor provisions within the USMCA trade pact are already being put in place by Mexico, and Pelosi should quit trying to hide behind labor concerns to avoid ratification.

Tomorrow, on the eve of Thanksgiving at the request of the Trump administration, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Mexican Foreign Minister Jesus Seade and Canadian Deputy Minister Chrystia Freeland are holding a meeting to discuss the  AFL-CIO/Pelosi issues within the USMCA labor provisions.

FM Chrystia Freeland is irrelevant to the meeting; she’s a potted-plant rubber stamp for whatever scheme Pelosi is cooking. It is House Speaker Pelosi who is using her pressure over labor unions to hide behind AFL-CIO Richard Trumka and claim U.S. labor unions have issues with the USMCA labor provisions. It ain’t about labor; it is all political cover.

However, it is interesting that USTR Lighthizer, a man with the patience of Job, called Jesus Seade and Freeland to DC:

WASHINGTON – The three trade ministers from the United States, Canada and Mexico are set to meet in Washington on Wednesday to discuss the deal to replace NAFTA, seven people familiar with the plans told POLITICO.

The meeting involving U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Deputy Canadian Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Undersecretary for North America Jesús Seade comes as the Trump administration is nearing a compromise with House Democrats to make changes to the USMCA.

Lighthizer has been negotiating with a group of nine House Democrats to address four main concerns involving the pact’s labor, environmental, enforcement and drug pricing provisions.

Any changes to the text would have to be approved by Canada and Mexico before the Trump administration can finalize the agreement and send it to Congress for a vote. Canada is expected to accept changes to the text without issue. (more)

In her effort to stall the growth of the North American economy, Speaker Pelosi has been trying to block the USMCA by demanding [falsely and with cover by Trumka (AFL-CIO)] that Mexico start a national Social Security program for all Mexican workers.

There’s a bucket load of political obfuscation on the issue, but that’s generally Pelosi’s intentional poison pill.  Meanwhile Mexican President Lopez-Obrador has told Lighthizer that Pelosi can go drink a bucket of spit if she thinks the U.S. is going to dictate domestic economic policy to a sovereign country.

Now remember, the USMCA is an agreement between Lighthizer and Seade that Canada joined. The architecture of the agreement was exclusively the U.S. (Team Trump) working with Mexico (Team AMLO) when the deal was constructed in 2018.  Canada joined after everything was already assembled; the deal hardly changed at all… you’ll see why.

My hunch is that Robert Lighthizer (Trump) has informed Jesus Seade (AMLO) that Pelosi is just trying to kill any USMCA compact simply because she is attempting to derail the U.S. economy for maximum 2020 political benefit (which she is).

This meeting is going to be Lighthizer and Seade extending some deal framework that will functionally stop Nancy Pelosi and Richard Trumka from making ridiculous claims.

Something akin to modified provisions within the agreement where Mexico agrees to a border enforcement mechanism if a labor dispute panel arbitrates a U.S. labor union challenge within the deal. A mini three nation binding arbitration trade panel of sorts (example: 2 from Canada, 2 from Mexico and 3 from U.S.). This panel would create faster  labor/trade dispute resolution than going through an extensive multi-year court case.

There’s going to be paper here…. not talk… an actual papered outline.  Trump wouldn’t be having Lighthizer call for Seade if he and AMLO had not already worked the paper.

This is a little weedy, and my hunch is that Lighthizer (Trump) is telling Seade (AMLO) the U.S. panel would be stacked in favor of Mexico [nudge-nudge, wink-wink, say-no-more, say-no-more]. An effort to cut-off Pelosi’s scheme to derail the agreement.

The multinationals are lined up and ready to go all-in, BIGLY, on North American investment that will benefit Mexico. There are tens-of-billions of private sector dollars ready to go, they just need to clear the insufferable Pelosi blockage.

This $44bn investment package is why AMLO has been willing to assist the Trump administration on border security etc. President Trump has leveraged major economic benefit to Mexico because in the larger picture the USMCA, in combination with prior ASEAN agreements, is the economic breech that drains China. However, to receive the benefits, Mexico has to be a stable partner on geopolitical issues including immigration, border security, internal corruption and dealing with drug cartels.

If all goes according to the Trump/AMLO plan Wall Street’s U.S. investment in China will have an alternative in Mexico, and that’s the cornerstone that allows President Trump to begin a more consequential decoupling with Beijing.  [Insert India watching here]

Phase-One of the U.S-China deal, if cemented, will be the only phase; and that phase objective is simply constructed to fill the purchase void for the U.S. Agriculture Sector. China opens the financial sector and makes Ag purchases, in exchange POTUS stalls further tariffs on designated sectors that touch upon Phase-one agreements.

If the landscape ends were the compass is heading, there isn’t going to be a multi-sector (manufacturing, IP, big-tech, etc.) phase-two or phase-three deal in the U.S-China future. Instead there will be a decoupling of the U.S-China relationship in direct proportion to the opportunity opened within the U.S-Mexico alliance.  [Insert Stock Market Stability Here]

This is the incentive for AMLO, via Jesus Seade, to work with Trump, via Lighthizer, to get Pelosi out of the picture. Once she’s out of the way, the big picture starts moving forward.

Chrystia Freeland and Justin Trudeau are irrelevant, Canada has already destroyed its manufacturing base and cannot enjoy the benefits of massive North American investment. Canada has consigned itself to be a service-driven economy living in the shadow of the U.S. and Mexico.  If Canadian politics and social outlooks change later on, well… !

Happy Thanksgiving!

Now go make your millions.

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President Trump travels to Sunrise, Florida today for a massive Keep America Great Rally at the BB&T Center.  A bit of Trump trivia: during the early 2016 GOP primaries the 2016 MAGA rally at the BB&T Center, home of the NHL Florida Panthers, was one of the largest rallies of the campaign.  The sold-out venue seats 20,000 and thousands more on floor.

The President is expected to deliver remarks at 7:00pm ET.

RSBN Livestream link – Donald J Trump Livestream Link – Fox10 Livestream Link

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President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump participate in the annual Thanksgiving Day celebration at the White House where Bread and Butter received their official Thanksgiving pardon. [Video Below, Transcript Added]

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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much. Please. And it’s always nice to begin by saying: The stock market is up again. We just set another record, so we should say that. Very substantially up. (Applause.) And I think that’s 132 times that we’ve set a record from the time we got elected on that very great day. But it’s — it’s good to know. A lot of people are very happy.

We’re doing well. Our country is doing very well. And the First Lady and I are delighted to welcome you all to the White House on this magnificent autumn day. On behalf of the entire Trump family, I wish each and every one of you a very happy Thanksgiving. It’s going to be a great Thanksgiving.

We’re glad to be joined today by Representatives David Rouzer and Jason Smith and a man who has done an — and, I have to say, they are warriors. They have all been great warriors. Mark Meadows, thank you very much. The three of you, please stand up. They are warriors — (applause) — and great people. And Deb, thank you very much for being here. Thank you.

Thanks also to the President of the National Turkey Federation, Joel Brandenberger; and its Chairman, Kerry Doughty, who is here with his family and his wife, Jan. Where is Ker- — Jan, thank you very much. Please, stand up for what you do. He’s also the head of Butterball — the Chairman of Butterball. (Applause.) That’s the biggest there is. Great job. And we appreciate your involvement. Thank you very much.

As we gather this week with loved ones across our beautiful land, we give thanks to God for the many gifts that he has bestowed upon us. Today, we also come together to honor the beautiful, feathered friend — the noble turkey. Now, that’s a beauty.

It’s said that Abraham Lincoln was the first President to spare a Thanksgiving turkey, at the request of his son. In 1947, President Harry Truman accepted the first annual National Thanksgiving Turkey. In the decades that followed, Presidents, from Kennedy to Reagan, would show mercy —

(The turkey gobbles.)

See? (Laughter.) Wow. That’s a strong bird.

— to their birds, but it was George H.W. Bush who first issued an official pardon.

In keeping with that tradition, today I will issue a pardon to a pair of very handsome birds: Butter and his alternate, Bread. (Laughter.)

AUDIENCE MEMBER: (Inaudible.)

THE PRESIDENT: That’s true. Look at you.

Their names were chosen by the students of Harrells Christian Academy in North Carolina. Great state.

Bread and Butter were raised in Tar Heel State by farmer Wellie Jackson, who’s here with us with his wife Tara and their lovely family. And I want to thank you very much. Great job. Great job. Thank you very much. (Applause.)

Thankfully, Bread and Butter have been specially raised by the Jacksons to remain calm under any condition, which will be very important because they’ve already received subpoenas to appear in Adam Schiff’s basement on Thursday. (Laughter and applause.) It’s true. Hundreds of people have. It seems the Democrats are accusing me of being too soft on turkey. (Laughter.)

But, Bread and Butter, I should note that. unlike previous witnesses, you and I have actually met. (Laughter.) It’s very unusual. (Applause.) Very unusual.

In any event, I expect this pardon will be a very popular one with the media. After all, turkeys are closely related to vultures. I don’t know if I like that line, but there is a little truth to it.

But today, after, the birds will retire to “Gobbler’s Rest” at Virginia Tech — great college — where they will be cared for and enjoy a terrific life.

This Thanksgiving, we bow our heads in gratitude for the newfound prosperity and spirit that’s taking place all across America. The country has never been more successful. Our military has been rebuilt. We captured the number-one terrorist in the world and killed the number-one terrorist in the world — al-Baghdadi. And I want to thank our military because there’s nothing like our military. (Applause.)

And I want to thank almighty God for the — shedding his grace on our nation. Our nation is special and we especially send our love to members of the United States Armed Forces serving all around the world. We are forever thankful for those who wear our nation’s uniform and the families who support them. The families are so important. They can never be the same without those great families. Because of their selfless service, millions of our follow Americans are celebrating another wonderful Thanksgiving in safety and in peace.

And it’s just a very special country, a very special place — the Rose Garden at the White House. If you’re looking back here, that’s the Oval Office. Some of you haven’t been here before. But every time we walk onto the grounds of the White House, we realize how special it is.

So now we reach the moment Bread and Butter have been waiting for so patiently — their presidential pardons. Melania and I wish all Americans a very happy and blessed Thanksgiving. We love you all.

Butter, let’s talk to you for a second because I’m going to do something that you’re going to be very happy about. Uh oh, that looks like a dangerous bird. (Laughter.) It just escaped.

Wow. Butter, I wish you a lot of luck. But I hereby grant you a full and complete pardon. (Applause.) Good. Full and complete. (Applause.)

Thank you all very much.

That was great. A lot of fun.

Thank you very much. Thank you.

[END Transcript]

Former Navy SEAL Rob O’Neill appears on Fox News to discuss the political corruption in amid the Flag officers within the military.   WATCH:

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O’Neill rightly points out how DC bureaucrats are confusing the purpose of warfighters and President Trump is focused on the common sense approach. Former Navy Secretary Richard Spencer embarrassed himself by violating the chain-of-command and then criticizing President Trump over a lack of “order and discipline” within that same command structure. Ridiculous.