QUESTION: Summers has also come out and expressed that whatever forecast comes out of Davos is wrong. How can there be this conspiracy that the elite are in control of anything when they always do get it wrong?

DV

ANSWER: The majority is always wrong because they tend to talk among themselves and reaffirm their own opinions. I think they call me in just to see if I have changed my mind because I have been the counter-view of the world economy to what is typically discussed among those people who believe they are in power but are not.

The Repo Crisis is something these people remain clueless about. They do not even factor it into their thinking. I believe in part because they all lack the experience. I truly believe that the only people qualified to run any central bank or treasury function are those who have been either independent hedge fund managers or had to work on the front line of a dealing desk in currency and/or bonds. I am not talking about their boss who was on the board. They typically have no experience and the trader has to pitch an idea to them in laymen terms, speaking fundamentally, for they are usually unfamiliar with either technical analysis or cyclical analysis

The public was outraged over the use of tax dollars to bail out banks during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Act of January 2010, which eliminated the option of bank bailouts but opened the door for bank bail-ins. The problem was that the banks in trouble were all the big boys in New York, which did not involve moms and pops on main street America as they saw it. The banks all repaid the $700 billion bailout, but this entire issue is being misrepresented by people promoting gold who advocate that you can lose all your money in banks so you better buy gold.

What they are not telling people is that you are covered by FDIC for $250,000. That was not changed by Dodd-Frank. Additionally, bail-ins would be political suicide and it would also undermine the entire economy. There is no way that Congress would ever vote for bail-ins in a crisis.

The situation in Europe is entirely different. Because they created the euro but did NOT consolidate the debts, the central objection came from Germany that they would not allow their money to be sent to bail out banks in Italy or Greece. Thus, the bail-in policy was adopted in Cyprus. The EU is by no means a single political government or economy. They integrated only to a limited extent. They still retain the separation between members with each even retaining their own central banks. Hence, the bail-in was NECESSARY in Europe because there is no actual central government as in the United States.

Consequently, in Europe they can still point the finger at individual states. That is not the way politics works in the United States. If they refused to bailout big banks, they would set off a contagion that would wipe out countless smaller banks throughout the nation. That would be a political disaster which is entirely different in Europe.

Chile was believed to be Latin America’s freest, most stable and richest nation. However, it is now in free fall. Public order has collapsed, violence is rampant, and populism is the new creed of the political class. Chile imploded into a social uprising that was initially sparked by a student protest over metro fare hikes in Santiago. This is a global trend to simply raise taxes. People across the country have since mobilized against economic and social inequality, engaging in mostly peaceful but sometimes violent protests. There is a recession, characterized by capital flight and rising unemployment. Income inequality could increase to levels not seen since the 1990s, according to a recent statement by Chile’s Central Bank. The currency has started to see the US dollar rise sharply on a technical basis.

The previous US dollar high was 2002, which was perfectly in line with the Economic Confidence Model. The dollar declined thereafter with the lowest yearly closing at the peak in the ECM in 2007. It was then 2015 when the dollar finally broke through the Downtrend Line from the 2002 high. That implied we should have witnessed a dollar rally into January 2020. After an initial high in November 2019, the dollar declined into the week of December 30th and has started to rally thereafter. There is obviously a risk that exceeded the November 2019 high, and we can see a Cycle Inversion with a rally into perhaps the highest annual closing for the dollar in 2021.

The politics in Chile have been a ping pong match with the extremes battling back and forth between the very left and the very right. For the third time in 12 years, Chile’s two major political figures traded the positions of the presidency. The socialist leader Michelle Bachelet made history in 2006 by becoming first woman elected president in Chile. However, just four years later, voters went in the opposite direction, choosing a conservative billionaire businessman, Sebastián Piñera. Then the Socialist Ms. Bachelet reclaimed the presidency in 2014, which was then followed by a reversal of fortune with Mr. Piñera took coming back yet again in elections of 2018.

Since the 2018 election of President Sebastián Piñera, the clash between left and right took a mere 40 days to take what was once considered the Latin American “oasis” to sheer political chaos. Students began to riot as they did against Trump, taking what had been one of the most stable Latin American economies into a dramatic economic decline in a matter of weeks. What has taken place in Chile should be a warning of what is coming to every Western democracy — the refusal to accept a political loss of any kind by both sides.

President Sebastián Piñera has vowed he will not resign despite the mass anti-government protests. As mentioned, the demonstrations were originally triggered by a now suspended rise in the price of metro fares in Santiago. This is similar to how the French protest began over a tax hike on fuel for global warming. Protesters are now marching to express their discontent over a wide variety of problems much the same as we have seen in France and even in Hong Kong.

Capital investment fell in each year of Bachelet’s Socialist term. Such a consistent reduction in investment hasn’t happened since data was first collected, in the 1960s. Economic growth collapsed from an annual average of 5.3% under the previous government of Mr. Piñera (2010-14) to 1.7% under Ms. Bachelet. Real wage growth took a 50% hit.

The social agenda was being indoctrinated by its universities by telling students that there were economic injustices and an inequality of wealth. They spread the profoundly false narrative by creating the myth that Chile is an extreme case of injustice and abuse. It began with progressive ideologues that spread the idea that there was nothing to feel proud about in Chile. This idea has been fostered and is the backdrop in Chile much as it has been spread in the United States and especially Europe. Bachelet’s second term was all about her social justice-driven agenda.

When Piñera came to power, he too accepted this basic premise of progressive economics and he began to raise taxes to address what he called one of Chile’s main problems: inequality. He then tried to re-establish order by buying off interest groups with benefits and handed out a substantial increase in government spending to support retirees. His higher personal income taxes and more generous health insurance schemes, along with a guaranteed minimum income for all Chilean workers, caused a once conservative government to bend its knee to socialistic agendas.

Chile stands as a warning of what is unfolding on a global scale. The media and universities are pushing this climate change agenda to support the return of Marxism. Chilean elites are now also waging a sustained war against law enforcement. Many police officers will not dare act for fear of sensationalist media coverage and punishments by courts under the sway of progressive elites. The free market has not failed in Chile as the socialists argue. They are seeking to subjugate the investment class which is so needed to start small businesses that the prospect of even looking to invest in the future appears dismal at best. Until confidence is restored in the future, Chile is position to collapse economically going into the global turning point in 2032.

COMMENT: Now when everyone except politicians says Sweden is broke government increases the hunt for money.
27 January – Karlskrona municipality is measuring hedges and they threaten 650 homeowners with fine if they don’t cut it. The fine is 520 USD.

24 January – Dalarna municipality talking about a tourist tax. Tax for every night a tourist sleep. This money is for the things the municipality can’t afford. 31 USD per night.

8 January – Fee for storing trees by the road. Each application costs 300 USD.

With people who see what is going on the talk is about leaving Sweden. I know some that have left and my self is also leaving. Trying a new life in Finland. No daily news about rape, killing, cars burning and bombs exploding in the central part of towns. … but sadly they have the Euro.
Thanks for all that you do!

HL

REPLY: This is what we are witnessing on a global scale. Governments only look at what they need to pay the bills tomorrow. They are oblivious to the damage they are causing to the economy or that most revolutions begin because of taxation. They are no longer serving the public. They extort the public and it is increasingly becoming impossible to obtain a fair ruling in judicial systems around the world. They only see us as a revenue source. They no longer look at us as “we the people” who compose the nation, but merely the herd of sheep to be used for profit.