The elitists and by that I mean both the R’s and the D’s (for there really is no difference) have thought that they have pulled the wool over the eyes of the voters; however the voters are actually smarter than the politicians and they have had enough BS form both the R’s and the D’s who are only interested in lining their pockets with gold. We have been bamboozled for a few election cycles but no longer as there is no one in Washington that cares a hoot about the common man or woman. Thump has shown us that he does understand that Washington is full of nothing but BS — we have had enough and I would find it hard to believe that there is any R or D that can stop this movement. WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH the progressives are done they have screwed up everything and need to be retired, we don’t care about your abstract theories and ideas we care about our families and our children. Take your insane ideas and show them to Satin I’m sure you will get an audience down there where you belong.
Monthly Archives: September 2015
698,000 NATIVE BORN AMERICANS LOST THEIR JOBS IN AUGUST: FOREIGN BORN GETTING THE WORK
There are almost no jobs available for native born Americans and have not been for a long time. Every statistic I have seen shows that virtually all the jobs have gone to foreigners legal or other wise.
A Question of Money – Interest – Bankers
QUESTION:
Mr Armstrong, interesting article today, the story of the store of value (at least long term) has always confused me. One can look at saving accounts also as an asset as it yields the interest payment and one relinquishes the access to the money. No difference to bonds.
But your article causes some questions: as you stated before the FED buying bonds does not increase real money supply, so what caused the decline of purchasing power of money in the asset class of equities? Is it that the manipulating of interest rates distorted the actual confidence and time preference in the economy which can be measured by the velocity?
You posted earlier that the velocity has declined. People do not want to invest but save which is not an option for big money as it doesn’t yield any or very little return. Hence enterprises buy back shares and smart money has no other option.
Interest rate hike by the FED, eventually increasing retail participation, a cooling world economy, sovereign debt crisis and the flight to the Dollar. The outcome of your computer, a rise in US stock markets including a possible phase transition, seems comprehensible.
The only thing what leaves me with amazement is what do they really intend? I don’t believe that the families who run the banking system, operating for centuries in money business, do not understand that. I can only assume that for being protected by government the banking cartel buys the governments time and keep financing the deficits.
Best regards,
G
ANSWER: The problem in so many areas is that we can focus on one issue, but the answer is a complexity of variables. The history of interest rates has been provided on this site. Interest rates in a developed economy reflect the “option” value on the expected decline in purchasing power of money. If I expect it to decline by 5%, then I expect a profit and say want 8%. You in turn will pay the 8% only if you think you also can make a profit above 8% perhaps 10%+.
In an UNDEVELOPED economy, we transpose the depreciation risk of money with risk in general. Lacking any developed economy, one will lend only based upon the risk of getting repaid. Therefore, without a legal system, the risk is either the person or the political climate. When we look at the history of interest rates, I demonstrated that the rate of interest even within the Roman Empire increased the further you moved away from Rome. Hence, the lowest interest rates are in the dollar and they rise in other countries based upon perceived political risk. Greece’s interest rates are significantly higher than those in Germany. This is a reflection of political risk, not simple the future inflation rate in the Euro.
The Fed did not increase the money supply with QE easing and we have see that 9 months of QE in Europe has also failed to create inflation. What happened to the whole theory of the quantity of money impacting inflation? The problem lies in the definition. When US government debt was illegal to borrow against using it as collateral, then issuing debt DID NOT increase the money supply. When that was changed and you can post TBills as collateral to trade, then there is no longer a difference between debt and money.
The US government did not issue paper money after the Revolution until the Civil War. To encourage people to accept it (CONFIDENCE), it paid interest. In reality, this was a form of circulating bond. The term “greenback” referred to the issues that did not pay interest and were not purportedly backed by silver or gold. You turned it over and it was just green ink with no promises.
So the Fed buying in bonds did not increase the money supply and it failed to create inflation as expected BECAUSE it merely swapped bonds (money paying interest) with non-interest paying money (electronic entries). The bankers then complained so the Fed created the Excess Reserve Facility, where banks have nearly $3 trillion in cash. The SF Fed argues Milton Friedman said they should pay interest on reserves. That was only on the required reserves. The creation of the Excess Reserves totally negated the entire idea of stimulating the economy for the banks never lent the money out. It became a giant swap of bonds for cash deposits at the Fed which it then had to pay 0.25% interest.
So now turning to the VELOCITY of money, a decline here demonstrates that people are HOARDING cash (rising in purchasing power as assets decline), as well as banks (Excess Reserves). We have companies buying back their own stock further shrinking the supply of equities also fueling the deflationary spiral. The Excess Reserves at the Fed show just how much banks are hoarding cash.
Therefore, we can see the deflationary trend and the contraction right here. The US share market has been at the high-end of trading, but it did not breakout beyond our second target which was the 18500 on the Dow. The market indeed doubled as we warned coming out of the hold in the 6,000 level passing 12,000, which is the MINIMUM requirement to start a Phase Transition. We nearly tripled by the 2015.75 target beating our minimum doubling requirement, but this was still not a Phase Transition. Why? Retail participation has been at record lows in stocks. This is a bubble in government debt and why we are at 5000 year lows in interest rates.
Now top the conspiracy. “The only thing what leaves me with amazement is what do they really intend? I don’t believe that the families who run the banking system, operating for centuries in money business, do not understand that. I can only assume that for being protected by government the banking cartel buys the governments time and keep financing the deficits.”
Banking establishments are some of the WORSE investors throughout history. They always go bust and it is government that devours them every single time. Yes, the government has been protecting the bankers for they have also been fueling the debt assisting governments to borrow. Therein lies their own demise. EVERY major banking house have been destroyed by this very same flirtation with power. They are like moths attracted to the flame of a candle, hoping to dance by the light never realizing their wings may get burned.
The cycle has change. The wheel of fortune has completed its revolution. Governments are turning against the banks and looking to electronic currency. The days of rumored banking conspiracies is coming to an end as it always has. The banks will be a giant short. When the Sovereign Debt defaults become a contagion, the banks will not be supported by government.
Secretary Kerry Tells Sergey Lavrov He’s “Deeply Concerned” About Russian Military Entering Syria…
Oh my GOSH unfriend Lavrov that is almost an act of war, I hope Kerry is not serious; just think what the global consequences of that could could be. Especially if followed up with a #Hashtag campaign.
Socialist Hollande To Deny Public Opinion and Open France’s Doors To Mid-East “Refugees”…
The EU is committing social suicide, they will never be able to recover from bringing in these Muslim invaders. By mid century Muslims will be the majority in some countries and that will be the end. Lets hope we can stop the movement to bring more here here before its to late.
Latest National Poll: Donald Trump CRUSHES Field – 36% Support, No-One Even Close… (full pdf results included)
I have voted for every Republican candidate for President with one exception since I was able to vote. I have worked very hard to elect Republicans and contributed a lot of money at my level and got nothing for it. Right now is see no difference between the DNC and the RNC in practice. They talk different but they both make the government bigger with their policies. Trump maybe someone other then who he claims to be but at least he is telling it like it is more than any one else has in decades. SO HE HAS MY VOTE!
Money: What Is It? What is Interest? What is the Wealth of a Nation?
Angela Merkel and IMF chief Christine Lagarde can laugh it up as Europe burns down. The whole crisis stems from antiquated ideas that center on what money actually is. If you do not grasp what the true function which money actually provides within the economy, then you will be unable to get anything else right either. This entire idea of austerity is the crazy notion that money somehow should be a store of value. This is up there on the list of myths with those who also argue that markets decline because of shorts rather than comprehending that eventually longs do also sell.
Money is the OPPOSITE of assets and has always been historically. This is incredible important to understand far more than you may realize. If you want money to retain its purchasing power/value, you are creating a false image of how the economy functions. For Germany to be politically obsessed with the days of hyperinflation and constantly attempt to impose austerity, they are adopting the anti-asset position and that is the source of deflation.
Interest is actually supposed to be a measure of expected inflation and is essentially dealing in options. Whatever the rate of interest, the lender is expecting that the money will buy the same amount of assets upon repayment plus some profit in excess of the interest rate. Bankers want the same purchasing value back upon repayment plus their profit which is the entire purpose of lending money. Yet historically, the boom and bust cycle is the rise and fall in the purchasing power of money as measured in terms of assets. That is what is rising and falling – the purchasing power. When the purchasing power of money declines and assets rise, we call this a BULL MARKET. When the purchasing power of money falls, we call this a BEAR MARKET.
I have written many times that there is no magic level in interest rates that will cause the stock market to fall. As a market rises (BULL MARKET), interest rate MUST rise for that is the option on money and its future purchasing power upon return. Thus, it has NEVER BEEN the direction of interest rates that determines the direction of assets, for they are historically linked and must be. Only a fool, indoctrinated by Marxist-Keynesianism, cannot grasp that the economy cannot be manipulated by interest rates. This is why doing empirical studies of these two factors on a correlation model reveals simply that the stock market HAS NEVER peaked with the same level of interest rates twice in history. The level of interest rates is indistinguishable from a option premium on the future expectation of that particular asset.
The Federal Reserve keeps talking about the “normalization” of interest rates. They will not come out and explain what I am doing right now because it would expose that the emperor is naked. The Fed sees that negative interest rates proposed by the legendary banking advocate Larry Summers who may have been an agent from Hell sent to Earth to wipe out the economy, are highly destructive and amount to a tax on money. Negative interest rates can only be totally destructive to all asset classes and furthers deflation to the extreme. People then would hoard money outside of banks to avoid the tax and this leads government on their quest to eliminate physical money and embrace the age of electronic money. That changes the entire game and embraces economic totalitarianism.
These people are fundamentally destroying everything because they are clueless about what is really money. Both China and Japan rose from the ashes without gold, proving that the wealth of a nation is not its gold reserves, but the total productive capacity of its people. Returning to a gold standard will not provide some magical check and balance where assets still rise in value yet gold/money would retain its purchasing power. They are totally lost in the rambling of their own mind. When gold was used as money, it rose and fell just as anything else that has ever been money proving it does not matter what you use for money, the same result will always emerge – money is on the opposite side of money. If you cannot grasp this fundamental realization, then you are doomed to screwing up the economy and society big time.
The only politician throughout history who truly understood this fact of life was Julius Caesar. To solve the debt crisis, he realized that the value of money rose above what it once had purchased and the price of assets reflected in terms of money had declined. He realized that say when a banker lent you money to buy a home say $100,000, and the market crashes, a $100,000 can perhaps buy two houses. The banker then reaps a huge profit demanding full repayment. Caesar’s solution? He appointed a board to revalue all assets to the point when the debt was entered. He then attributed all previous interest payment to reduce that capital borrowing and therein settled all accounts. He revitalized the economy and ended the debt crisis.
Money is merely a reflection of its purchasing power. It has NEVER been historically a store of wealth and cannot possibly be under any circumstances where assets rise in terms expressed in money. For assets to rise in terms of money, that means money must decline in purchasing power. This is rather simple to understand. Money is simply a medium of exchange that fluctuates in purchasing power rising and falling based upon human activity. We are lost in understanding the future because we cannot understand the past and the role of money no less debt and interest rates, which are merely an option on the future expectation of the purchasing power of money.
The wealth of a nation is the total productivity of its people. If I have gold and want you to fix my house, I give you the gold for your labor. Thus, your wealth is your labor, and the gold is merely a medium of exchange. So it does not matter whatever the medium of exchange might be. You will give your labor provided you know someone else will accept the medium of exchange from you in purchasing something else. It is the labor of the people and their productive capacity that creates the wealth of any nation. Germany rose from the ashes in Europe to be the strongest economy without gold all on the back of the total productive capacity of its people. The same is true for Japan and for China. Where corruption prevailed as in Russia and they relied upon selling a commodity rather than the productive capacity of its people, then its economy has not soared as did China, Japan, or Germany. This also explains the third world status of South America and Africa. When a country exploits is natural resources to gain wealth rather than educating its people, its long-term viability will diminish with the reduction in the supply of its natural resources or in the case of oil, against rising cheaper alternatives. We do not get this fundamental principle correct, we will destroy our economies with excessive taxation, which in turn, reduces the total productive capacity of its people.
Why Islam is not and can not be compatible with Western Civilization!
Muslims ‘Procreate Like Mushrooms After the Rain,’ ‘The Problem is Islam,’ says a Florida Professor.
Reports: Last Year’s ISIS Terrorists are This Year’s Mid-East Refugees – Planes, Trains and Automobiles…
Letting all the Muslims in is the biggest mistake we have ever made and will likely lead to the end of Western Civilization. Why haven’t any Muslim countries taken them in? Maybe this is civilization Jihad as developed by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Thousands of refugees reach Germany after Hungary & Austria surrender to exodus
This will not work out well for multiple reasons but we will do it anyway.> There is a high probability of severely damaging 5000 years of development that made what we called western civilization. We may have just flushed it all down the toilet. Sadly it was because we elected a novice president twice and he personally created this mess.











