Tag Archives: #CALEXIT

Oct 30 2017

Idiots who try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

COMMENT: Ok Mr. Armstrong, this is nuts; You are starting to freak me out with this forecasting. The last 2 months has blown me away when a few more elements of your methodology lit my bulb a little brighter. This may sound like you paid me to advertise for you but most of us know you’re not like Hillary. My simple approach combined 3 pieces important to me: 1. Basic knowledge of the markets on a global scale, 2. Basic understanding of your models and Socrates reports 3. Basic interpretation of the ArmstrongEconomics Blog. (utmost importance, hints included) Like Erwin said last year “it might save your life.”

He is so right.

Best to all;

RH

REPLY: I assume you are probably talking about this Vertical Market. This report is probably one of the most important I may have ever released. It’s not easy because so many people have been caught up in the Austrian School of economic thought and the Quantity of Money theory. The entire Quantitative Easy has proven that theory to be completely wrong.

I know this is like having to relearn everything. But that is just the way it is. I and my senior staff even are going to private meetings with central banks. Everything we have ever been taught in school is just dead wrong. This whole nonsense of Conspiracy Theories of people who are steering the world economy is just insane. If that were even true, then why call us at all?

The world economy is coming unglued. This is no joke. The sooner people wake up and just follow the money flows and forget the old theories, the sooner you will arrive at clarity. The only economic theories that were spot on were Adam Smith, who had no ax to grind in the observation of the Invisible Hand, and David Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage. Everyone else ever since has been about trying to eliminate the Business Cycle. This has caused a vast mess and we are about to pay the price.

We have insane politicians like the new Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern who has declared that capitalism is a blatant failure while the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says capitalism is ‘merely’ coming to an end because it is making itself obsolete.

Both witnessed the economic collapse, but instead of blaming the government and its socialist attempt to control the business cycle, they blame the people for not performing as they demand. What they are harping on is the disparity of wealth and want to take the wealth from the hated rich and somehow that is going to make it better. They are ignorant of the fact that this hated group they despise so much create the economy and jobs – not Marxism. Their failure to even recognize the collapse of Russia and China under Marxist theory is a tragedy that will only lead to internal class warfare.

I thank God I do not have much longer on the planet. I am compelled to watch idiots try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure.

Oct 30 2017

What Came First? Cultivation or Cities?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read you One-World-Currency report. It was truly fascinating. From an academic perspective, what came first in the formation of civilization; agriculture or cities? Where does money fit into this historical perspective?

Thank you;

FD

ANSWER: There has been a fair amount of assumption that went into the history we were all taught in school. What has emerged since is a different perspective, to say the least! There are megaliths at Göbekli Tepe which were erected by hunter-gatherers around 9000 BC or about 3,000 years before history starts to be recorded. Göbekli Tepe is a stone-age mountain sanctuary. It has turned everything upside down insofar as it was assumed that the city came first and then agriculture. It appears that agriculture came first which enable people to create cities.

Göbekli Tepe proves that there was a shift from animism, a belief that attributes a soul to plants, inanimate objects, and natural phenomena inasmuch as there is some supernatural power that organizes and animates the material universe, to centralized religion. In other words, there was a shift from an egalitarian society all people are equal to a hierarchical society arranged in order of rank. Clearly, there had to be a profound economic change and yes there would have to be some sort of monetary reward in the form of some resource to create such a shift from an egalitarian to a hierarchical society.

Göbekli Tepe is extremely important despite its obscure purpose and meaning. It is not the meaning that we need argue over. The incredible fact is that such a monument was constructed in the first place 9000BC. The simple fact of its existence proves historical assumption dead wrong. It matters not whether these pillars that are carved were some religious rite or just a decoration. More than 200 pillars in about 20 circles are currently known and only 5% of the site has been excavated. The astonishing fact is economic. Producing more than 200 pillars took a lot of man-hours. That means the workers needed a stable food supply and therefore agricultural cultivate MUST have been existence BEFORE cities were carved out of stone.

The construction of Göbekli Tepe would also have required some division of labor among overseers, technicians, and workers and management. Therefore, this required a hierarchical society. Therefore, social development in creating such structures must have precipitated, rather than resulted from, the shift to agriculture.

The assumption was that cities came first and then cultivation. Obviously, you had to feed the people to construct the cities first. My bet is on cultivation came first and food became money. Money moved from food to clothing. We see the first use of metal as money being Bronze imitating a sheepskin, which was the standard of value; i.e. Jason and the Golden Fleece.

Even the early Roman bronze Aes Signatum (5 pounds of bronze) pictures a bull. Cattle were also a main monetary unit of value prior to metal.

Oct 29 2017

GREXIT – Will Greece be Better off or Worse?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

GREXIT

QUESTION: I just read an article about Grexit and the MoU that expires in the summer of 2018. Let’s assume Greece exits EU and the Euro, what would happen to Greece and it’s people? What hardships would Grexit bring to the Greek people and what could individual Greeks do to prepare themselves for these hardships?

Thanks for your blog.
Greetings from Greece!
Cheers,

J

ANSWER: Things will be much brighter once Greece gets out of the Euro. Brussels is desperately trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone for their survival, not what is best for Greece. The major data is published by various agencies that are directly or dependent upon government and they will always champion staying in the Eurozone. If you look beyond those headlines, you see a different picture. Most of our clients in Britain who were against BREXIT, now report that things are much better. The manufacturing industry experienced a job boom in the last quarter. Compared Q3 2016, the job market data with that for 2017 showed that the manufacturing sector witnessed a 24% increase in advertised vacancies over the past 12 months. Jobs have been created in Britain at a faster pace since the BREXIT vote, despite the headlines of the fake news.

I have explained before that when Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, they instantly recovered from the Great Depression. This was the case study that George Warren used to demonstrate to Roosevelt that the dollar had to be devalued to reverse the economic decline. Maintaining the gold standard back then was the equivalent of “austerity” imposed upon Europe by Germany. Everyone just gets this whole issue of currency and the Quantity of Money dead wrong. The Austrian School of economics predates the massive government debt era. Today, the government is the biggest borrower within society and they compete against the private sector reducing economic growth.

The refugee crisis alone has devasted Greece. The London Financial Times reported in June that bookings were off as much as 70% for tourists. Greece has to suffer refugees that have devastated its tourist business and that has been one of its primary economic sectors.

Bring on GREXIT and you will stop the refugees as well if they cannot get into the EU by going to Greece. The rest of the EU will not help Greece of Italy pay for these refugees. There is no benefit to remaining in the Eurozone. It is time to slam the door of Brussels.

Oct 27 2017

Gold Better in Euros than Dollars?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Oct 27, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: G’day guys.
Thanks for a great seminar in Hong Kong!
I’m reading through your 1 world currency report and find it very interesting, going back to primary school teachings about barter systems and some funny monetary acceptances that have been in place many years ago. Like 14.5 kg copper plates as a currency only back in the 1600’s in Sweden. Or 1-ton barrels of tobacco. Very interesting and tough to carry in your wallet.
The major teaching I received from the Hong Kong Seminar was to look at the currencies (something I’ve had plenty of lessons dealt over the years trying to trade) in regard to products and assets in the many different countries around the world.
My question now we are seeing bitcoins and possibly diamonds and other mediums we are not yet aware of yet replacing gold as a new vehicle to move cash or wealth into a better performing countries assets.
With the collapse about to occur in Europe and Britain included monetary wise. Instead of buying gold in relation to USD one should buy gold against the Euro’s or Pounds when the time is right?
Or has a gold lost its lustre today and the contagion to gold may not occur to the extremes that have occurred in the past?
Will Europe money tell the story? The smart money is moving to the DOW. Will it return to gold when the people lose their confidence?
Thanks for the interesting and new way of looking at the markets Marty. I’m doing better with Socrates though still a novice.
Take care and wish I was coming to the next conference. Hope it’s a beauty.
A

ANSWER: Gold has lost its movability aspect as they hunt money for taxes. Twenty years ago you could hop on a plane with a briefcase of gold with no problem. From that perspective, gold has lost its international portability. This is obviously why people are turning to diamonds, rare ancient coins, and the like – movable assets. We are even witnessing real estate starting to decline now in New York City. The high-end real estate market (not the low-end) was making new highs as big money was trying to get off the grid. Realtors were reporting to us that the major of such high-end deals were all for cash – no mortgages.

Gold would certainly be a better hedge against the Euro than the dollar. It has outperformed the dollar because you always have to look at the currency. However, money will NEVER shift from the stock market all into gold. Everyone has their pet investment in what they feel comfortable. Gold is a retail product – not institutional. The Institutions can trade ETFs, gold stocks etc., but they will never take possession of gold.

What we are facing in truth is a currency reset. That means that ALL tangible assets rise against the currency in whatever country we are talking about. The goldbugs always hate the dollar and many of them have turned away from gold and into cryptocurrencies.

You will always have people who will prefer stocks, others gold, and others real estate, That is just the way it is. To each their own.

Oct 26 2017

Cars Sales Dropping as Taxes Rise


Armstrong Economics Blog/Europe’s Economic History

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The demand for cars has been declining rapidly in Britain and that is impacting German car sales rather sharply. All price levels in cars have been declining, not just the high end. The sales figures for small cars and the medium class have already declined significantly in the last few months. Now the losses are also becoming apparent in the case of expensive brands, especially for the German car manufacturers.

As taxes have risen upon the average person and this hunt for more tax revenue unfolds globally, this is what creates the recession and deflation. It a strange paradox for many as they see deficit spending rise. Many have a hard time comprehending that if the money supply increases, how can there be deflation? It is always the bottom-line. If you keep raising taxes, you will reduce the standard of living, and that in turn comes back and results in lower economic activity.

Oct 26 2017

China Moving to Take the Lead in Technology


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

China is moving rapidly to advance and take the lead in technology from the United States and they will accomplish that in the years ahead. China is moving very fast on every front. China is moving faster on quantum communications and computing and they are embracing real Artificial Intelligence that is being ignored by the powers that be in the US government.

We were granted our business license in China BECAUSE of our technology while the USA keeps trying to suppress technology advancement in our field. That means the government even had to review the conflicts with the USA and dismissed them as all other nations as being “stitched up” as one put it in Europe.

The regulators in the USA have one policy – if the big boys do it it’s OK. They are Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Jail, but big enough to hire government employees. Anyone else has to be regulated when the regulators do not even understand what they are doing. The bottom-line policy at the US regulators – if they do not understand it, regulate it out of existence. You are not allowed to compete against New York City.

In the United States, there remains over regulation because the government is clueless about technology. The next crisis will be really worse than 2007-2009 because they have chased so many from the marketplace with fines and regulations that make no sense. The SEC has had to announce strengthening rules for their own people in trading on inside information. The more regulators we have the more corruption that exists. I have stated before, when I was managing positions for the Onassis estate in commodities, I had the larges physical position in Platinum. It took six months to get permission to trade at that level way beyond exchange limits and when I picked up the phone the first time, everyone already knew the size of my position. So much for regulators. Today, positions of managers over $100 million in assets must be reported to the SEC. You can bet that i8nfo is handed out under the table.

In quick succession, China in recent months has utilized a quantum satellite to transmit ultra-secure data, inaugurated a 1,243-mile quantum link between Shanghai and Beijing, and announced a $10 billion quantum computing center. The USA cannot even compete with this level of technology yet. We have been a full green light on our systems. There is no question that China will be the dominant economy after 2032.

Oct 25 2017

New Zealand to Foreigners – Get Out!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The New Zealand Prime Minister that took the country back into Marxism, has fired its first shot across the bow.  The Labour party have formally signed a coalition agreement, introducing all new policies focusing on climate change, regional development, and poverty which translates into hunting the hated rich. Thirty-seven-year-old Jacinda Ardern, a member of the New Zealand Labour Party, became the world’s youngest female leader. Hillary must be crying in her martini.

Nevertheless, PM Ardern has just fired the first shot across the bow and this is a serious warning that foreign investment better cross New Zealand off the list of places that will be up-and-coming.  She has banned foreigners from buying property in New Zealand. The first proposal was to ban any migration to New Zealand as well. That they had to back off of given the refugee impression and that would have agreed with Trump – OMG!

She thinks banned foreign property ownership will cool off the property market. The problem will be, a property crash. When home values decline, people feel they lost money and they spend less. With rising property values, people feel they are better-off and spend more assu8ming they have equity even if they do not borrow against it.

She may be the youngest female leader in the world, but she also is clueless about economics.

Oct 25 2017

Diamonds replacing Gold?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

There has been an effort to use diamonds in place of gold since you can travel with them without setting off metal detectors. But the real problem has been the untrained eye can easily be fooled. The Singapore Diamond Investment Exchange (SDiX), has launched a new product they hope to compete with gold. Perhaps this may have some traction, but again, it is hard to see how this will really compete with gold unless someone is trying to move money from one country to another.

Oct 25 2017

Saudi Arabia in Search of Cash


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: I read your blog about the Saudi’s potentially selling a large private equity position from China in Aramco rather than accessing the public markets. You have pointed out the need for the Saudi’s to modernize their economy to be less dependent on oil income and to monetize that resource for capital improvements/diversification, but how do they do that without giving away to much control over their oil resources to China?  Wouldn’t a single significant stake by a private investor (country in this case) give up to much control over their single greatest resource (at least for the immediate future)?  I’m thinking of the disaster that is Venezuela as an example of the poor employment of foreign investment.
ANSWER: I fully understand your point. However, the Saudi’s need money. They spent too much money expecting oil to be $200 forever. They are now starting to issue bonds. Saudi Arabia has peaked economically and looks at UAE and sees the diversification. But Saudi Arabia would have to relax their religion. Here is a picture I took on the beach in Abu Dhabi. They are tolerant of Western Culture. You cannot create a world economy without separation of church and state.
Venezuela has always been a ruthless dictatorship. The wealth from oil never made it to the people.
Oct 24 2017

Is Europe Repeating the 1930s?


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Oct 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Europe is now replicating the 1930s and the mistakes it made with austerity back then as well outside of Germany. Of course, Merkel has imposed the German view of austerity based on their experience but has ignored the opposite experience of the rest of Europe that led to the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis and mass defaults.

It was the year of 1925 when then chancellor of the Exchequer, Winston Churchill, returned Britain to the gold standard. Britain was trying desperately to reestablish itself as the financial capital of the world as if nothing had taken place. Returning to the gold standard resulted in wages being forced down to compete with America.John Maynard Keynes at the time pleaded that this was madness. The pound was overvalued against the dollar by 10% trying to reestablish confidence in Britain but the net result crippled exports and unemployment began to rise and workers engaged in strikes for having wages reduced even though the pound was worth more officially.

Churchill acted in an effort to restore Britain but he was dead wrong. Keynes proved to be correct and this lesson has still been ignored by Europe today. The overvalued pound led to deflation and ultimately forced the economic collapse in 1931. The capital was fleeing Britain and bankers were pleading for austerity to retain bond values. The Labour government collapsed and a coalition national government was formed. They ignored the pleas of the bankers and abandoned the gold standard overnight. The pound fell from $4.85 to $3.40 against the dollar.

Warren-3NEVERTHELESS, despite the dire forecasts of ultimate catastrophic consequences if Britain abandoned the gold standard, the economy held and began to recover. There was no revolution in the streets as predicted. The devaluation of the pound actually stimulated the economy and the austerity crowd proved to be completely wrong. Within just four years, the British industrial production had risen by 25% and unemployment fell from 3 million to 2 million. It was this experience that provided the support for the economist George Warren (1874-1938) who convinced Roosevelt that austerity was wrong and devaluation would also kick-start the American Economy. None of Roosevelt’s Brains Trust was ever experienced in economics. Most were simply lawyers trying to get around the Constitution. They too argued for austerity as Merkel does today. However, Roosevelt looked at the events of 1925-1931 in Britain and listened to Warren. The dollar devaluation is what turned the economy around at that moment in time.

dj3242-m-warren

The USA share market began to recover from the depths of the Great Depression. History repeats, but I have stated it is like a Shakespeare play – the plot remains the same, but the actors change over hundreds of years. The lessons of history, therefore, repeat over and over again albeit by the same foolhardy reasoning.

Europe is trapped in similar orthodoxy to that of their prewar forebears. In Germany, they hold the firm belief that inflation is the greatest evil to inflict humankind. Yet the ECB has mastermind the greatest monetary expansion in history without success of stimulating anything. The policy of quantitative easing has been done only at the government level as taxes and tax enforcement has risen and thereby the people and consumption have been totally ignored for fear of inflation. This approach has created an economic nightmare that actually threatens to bankrupt the ECB. Unlike the US Federal Reserve which has the power to create elastic money, the ECB needs authority from government.

They do not flinch even when a quarter of high street shops close. They are like doctors laying the sick in the snow to see who will survive. Yet they hurl cash at friendly bankers and watch it vanish into the maws of directors and offshore speculators. And they dole out billions to prop up a euro of which they are not even members.

Keynes was right in 1925 – and proved right in 1931. Flexible exchange rates are a more painless way of forcing down labor costs and promoting trade than government austerity. Inflation is a better way of easing debt. The remedy for depressed demand is increased demand, simple as that. The risk of inflation in Britain at present is trivial compared with that of deflation and recession. And at least Britain’s currency can float. Imagine if it were part of the euro and trade had to cope with a pound probably 20% higher in value than now.

Hardly a month passes without another euro crisis and more imposed austerity. It is as if Keynes had never lived. Yet water still refuses to flow uphill. Heavily indebted countries certainly need to restructure their public sectors in the long term – and have plausible plans to do so – but they cannot repay debt, short or long term when they are in recession. Increasing unemployment and suppressing demand impedes growth and is no use to anyone.

Worse, Europe’s drawn-out austerity is undermining the very authority required to enforce it. When governments fall, no package can be enforced. Greece was forced last month into de facto default. Who would now buy a Spanish bond? What is the value of a Dutch finance minister? What price Nicolas Sarkozy’s signature on a bailout deal? As long as the euro shackles the continental economy in austerity it will never achieve political stability or a return to growth.

The euro was a Locarno dream. It was the last cry of the 20th century, envisaging a brave new order in which bankers and businessmen, workers and peasants, would stand arm in arm, singing Ode to Joy. All labor costs would become equal. There would be fiscal and regulatory integration across the entire continent. The euro would unlock the door of united states of Europe. Ireland and Greece would be to Germany what Nevada is to New York. The euro would squeeze and stretch the peoples of Europe until they were one.

This concept of a union must rank among the great mistakes of history. Like other pan-continental visions, it has proved no match for the crooked timber of European mankind. Its acolytes cannot bear revisionism or tolerate dissent. They have driven Greece into chaos and Spain into severe depression, with half its youth now unemployed. The Eurocrats do not care. Their incomes are secure. They dance only round the euro and claim its blood sacrifice. They will do anything but admit they were wrong.

The one salvation on the horizon is a true democracy. Last week the French electorate said no to more austerity and the Dutch government fell for the same reason. Spain faces a similar crisis, and the streets of Athens hold untold dangers. Even in Britain polls suggest an electorate unconvinced by the longevity of what by any standards is mild austerity. The peoples of Europe have had enough. The prospect of imposing on its nations the budgetary disciplines required for more German bailouts is unthinkable.