Tag Archives: Illinois credit now “Junk”

Apr 1 2018

Will Coins Survive The Monetary Crisis?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Monetary Reform

Re-Posted Apr 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:  Hi Armstrong,
I continue to read your blog for 2 years I say and find it educational.
I wanted to know what will happen to U.S. coins like pennies and nickels when the base metals are worth more than the coin value.
Will the U.S. allow hoarders/collectors to exchange them for spot metal value or melt value? either one would be of course more than 0.01 for the penny and more than 0.05 for the nickel.
I hope to hear my answer on the blog

A

ANSWER: When silver was removed from the coins after 1964, at first it was illegal to melt the coins down. The FBI were prosecuting people for melting the coins they called defacing. However, that quickly faded out as the law did not support their theory of defacement. $1,000 bags of US silver coin traded even on the futures market in New York.

This time around, it is not likely that we would see confiscation. We could once again see bags of coins trading as was the case even into the later 1970s.

Mar 31 2018

The Noah Coinage of Phrygia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient Economies

RE-Posted Mar 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
I have a question please, taking the lead from your recent article in your blog “Noah’s Ark Commemorated on Roman Coins”
Question: Do you happen to have found a copy of the Apion Treatise (answers to Josephus) in your historical searches? (Apion — Historian from Alexandria)
Background: Titus Flavius Josephus, born in 37 AD in Jerulasem, 160 years before Septimus reign introduced to the Roman elite to the Jewish mythology of the Bible thru his writings. The historian Apion from Alexandria wrote a treatise answering to the historical claims of Josephus. Josephus also responded with his treatise – Against Apion, which has survived. Apion’s Treatise is not published or found (lost??), according to the results of my searches.
Can you please enlighten me.
Thank you Kindly,

DGP

ANSWER: Josephus has been a contemporary historical source with respect to the conquest of Judaea by the Romans under the command of Vespasian (69-79AD). It is also true that he became an adviser to Vespasian’s son Titus (79-81AD). However, most of his writings appear to be really trying to redeem himself among his fellow Jews. In the Preface to Jewish Wars, Josephus actually criticizes historians that misrepresented the events of Roman-Jewish War. He wrote: “they have a mind to demonstrate the greatness of the Romans, while they still diminish and lessen the actions of the Jews.”

The Jewish War was a very big and profound event. It came after the death of Nero (54-68AD) and the empire was plunged into civil war. Vespasian (69-79AD) was vying to be emperor and the Jews looked at this opportunity to seek independence from Rome. However, like Catalonia in Spain, if they are allowed to just leave, this threatens not just Spain but would encourage others to leave the EU. This is precisely the same set of facts that existed following the death of Nero in 68AD.

If Judaea was allowed to just leave, other provinces would have done the same. They even issued their own coinage. Thus, the punitive actions of Vespasian against the Jews must be understood within this context. We have the victory over the Jews appears on coins of Vespasian of every denomination.

It is highly unlikely that the other works of Josephus were widely read by Romans. Josephus’s Against Apion is a two-volume defense of Judaism as classical religion and philosophy. Josephus stressed its antiquity and suggested that the Greek religions lacked that ancient tradition and were more modern. Josephus attacks the Greek writer Apion and his anti-Judaic allegations. So once again, this appears to be a work that may be also out of guilt that he supported the Romans to pick the winning side.

The bronze coin pictured above of Apameia was struck for Septimius Severus (192-211AD). The reverse legend mentions the city’s AGONOTHETES (chief organizer of the games) or chief magistrate, ARTEMAS, who probably was Jewish. Noah’s name, given in Greek as NOE, which appears on the ark. The subject matter does appear to be very popular and it may be entirely attributed to Jewish magistrates. Apameia was a city in Phrygia, which during the 3rd century AD, was under Roman rule. The Noah coin design must have been very popular since it was struck for the emperors even after Septimius Severus such as Severus Alexander (222-235AD), Gordian III (238-244AD), Philip I (244-249AD), and Trebonianus Gallus (251-253AD), over the course of 61 years.

Apameia was a merchant city (today Dinar in western Turkey) whose ruins remain to this day. It was a very prosperous city during Roman times. It was a trade/commercial center that was connected to Asia by caravans carrying silks, spices, incense, perfumes, and medicines. The population of the city was very much like London and New York; very cosmopolitan with a mixture of Phrygians, Lydians, Cappadocians, Pisidians, Greeks, Romans and Jews. The common bond was mercantilism. They were a society composed of traders.

The origin of the city was founded by Phrygians prior to 1,000 BC and it was named Celaenae. It was located in a well-watered oasis at the source of the Meander River. Its coinage from the 2nd century BC shows an elephant head which is a clear symbol of its connection with Asia through trade. This city sat on the ancient old ‘Royal Road’ from the Middle East to the Aegean Sea that was originally constructed by the Persians some 500 years before this coin was struck. The location afforded Apameia control over all the caravan routes from Asia. Even when Alexander the Great invaded this region, he made the city one of his military bases.

Following the death of Alexander, it fell to the control of Antiochus I Soter (280-261BC)(meaning Savior) of the Syrian/Seleukid Empire. Antiochus I built a new city in 270BC below the citadel of Ceaenae and named it Apameia after his mother. Then Antiochus brought Babylonian Jews to serve as garrison soldiers, civil servants and royal administrators in his new city. This is most likely the connection why we ultimately find Noah coins being struck in this city. Some argue this was a punishment because the Jews had resisted Alexander’s conquest of Babylon where they lived at that point in history.

The Antiochus III (223-187BC), the Great, brought another large group of Persian Jews to Apameia in 188BC. Josephus in his work, ‘Antiquities of the Jews’ said that Antiochus III settled 2,000 Jewish families from Babylon in Lydia and Phrygia. Josephus goes on to say that these Jews were given special privileges including tax exemptions for ten years and were permitted to adhere to their own customs, laws, and religion. (Antiquities, Book XII, iii.4). These settlers may account for the large communities of Jews that suddenly emerged in the ancient Asian cities of Antioch, Apameia, Delos, Ephesus, and Sardes.

It is clear that by the time we reach Septimus Severus at the end of the 2nd century AD, the Jews had risen to high political positions in the city. Therefore, the Noah coins are unique to this city and are a reflection of the cosmopolitan culture that existed thanks to commerce. The ark is portrayed as a kibotos, which was an Apameian packing case used in trade with a lid. This is, therefore, blending the trade of the city with the Jewish parable.

 

Mar 30 2018

Our Proprietary US Share Market Index Measuring the degree of Overbought Securities


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Mar 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Where does your overbought index stand on the stock market?

KL

 

ANSWER: This Index is proprietary. It peaked at 12.55 during October 1919 as capital had flowed to the United States due to World War I. The Index then declined thereafter into the August 1921 bottom at 10.40. From this point, the Index rallied into October 1925 peaking at 13.16, fell back for 15 months bottoming again in October 1927. The final rally lasted 14 months peaking at 12.95. The bottom came in July 1933 about 13 months after the actually low in nominal dollar terms during June 1932.

In nominal terms, the Dow tested the 1,000 level in 1966, 1968, and 1973 and again in 1980. We can see the shift in trend that came following the historical low in 1981. The core of this index is capital flows so it tends to reflect just how capital flees and concentrates moving relative to US assets. Looking at the most famous bull market of the Roaring ’20s, the duration was 97 months which we exceeded from the 2009 low in April 2017. The 2009 low was 6469.95 and the January high was 24,741.70. which was a rally of only 282% – not anywhere close to the Roaring ’20s.

This index is proprietary and it affords us a look at the asset class from a global perspective. This is part of the reason we have been warning that the bull market is by no means overbought and the bulk of forecasting out there has made this the most hated bull market in history because they look only at the nominal index without placing it within its global context.

 

Mar 29 2018

The Economic Confidence Model began with Recorded History


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Posted Mar 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: How far back have you tested your Economic Confidence Model?

GP

ANSWER: To the start of recorded history. Each wave has been identified and numbered. It is very remarkable how history conforms cyclically to this frequency.

 

It has been tested on every culture and empire from Asia to Europe.

Here is a more modern perspective on the various events that took place.

Mar 28 2018

Will the Euro Survive by 2021?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Mar 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

The results of the Italian election is just starting to sink in. The rise of comedian Beppo Grillo to Italy’s most successful politician, who won 32.7% of the popular voted compared to Merkel winning 32.8% in the German election.  Following the election on March 4th, Grillo’s “five-star” party took by far the first place. Brussels is still in shock and trembling as its mood has changed from he is just a joke to “OMG! This threatens the very existence of the EU”.

Grillo’s party sharply criticizes the EU, and above all, it questions the very purpose of Euro. The skepticism in the EU’s founding country Italy where they signed the Treaty of Rome, is rather amazing that those still focused on domestic issues in the USA are clueless about the threat to the Euro.

The threat Italy poses to the Euro stems from Brussels’ refusal to aid Italy with the refugee crisis and the outrageous demands that the increased expenditure for the refugees must be deducted from other expenditures to stay within the EU demanded guidelines, This has maintained a serious deflationary atmosphere in Italy and Brussels simply ignores the economic impact of what their policies have imposed. Italy’s public debt amounts to €2.2 trillion, and the risk of this debt going into crisis undermines the entire existence of the Euro. This is the direct result of the failed structure of the Euro I have warned about from the outset. (see 1996 reports)

Brussels tries to blame the misconduct of banks and takes no responsibility for the failed design of the Euro or for EU legislators and the European Central Bank, which have also played a profound role is turning Italy against Brussels. Swapping the old debt into Euro that then doubled in value, created a massive wave of deflation that 10 years of flooding the economy with money by the central bank has produced nothing but undermined then the pension system throughout Europe.

 

The world is lost, yet politicians fail to even understand that they are lost in their misconceptions of economics. The peak in the Euro came precisely in 2008 and ever since we have witnessed the erosion of economic confidence. The peak of the first 8.6-year wave into this new cycle for Europe came 2013.13 and then the low was 2017.43. We are now in a wave due for its peak in 2021.73 and by that turning point, we will see the Euro under tremendous pressure if it can even survive. There is no doubt that by 2030.33, that the Euro will probably not exist. The complete failure of the design is a profound mistake that is tearing Europe apart

Mar 28 2018

How Do We Really Forecast the Future?


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

Re-Posted Mar 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It is obvious that you have indeed been behind the curtain for your knowledge of even global politics is amazing. Kim Jong Un is here in Beijing. You said he would back down. You said the risk of war lies in the Middle East, not Korea. Your model calls the markets. You said the Dow would bounce for two days and then turn down. Even that took place today. Where do you begin and the computer ends?

UGH

ANSWER: That is a hard question to answer. The computer can show me the region for conflict. That is determined by cyclical trends for each region yet at times it is augmented by a combination of capital flows. Picking things like the fall of communism back in 1989 and picking when the Berlin Wall would fall were based cyclically on the outcome of that trend. That was 72 years from the Russian Revolution of 1917. That was the perfect target for the volatility models within the ECM. Both converged so it made it really a piece of cake.

The collapse of the Soviet Union came in 1991, that was a simple 2-year reactionary process all within a cyclical forecast. Now, the collapse of the Russian bond market which set in motion a major contagion and the Long-Term Capital Management debacle was determined from a capital flow and cyclical perspective. That came 8.6 years following the fall of the Berlin Wall. When that forecast made the front page of the second section of the FT, that is when even the CIA came. They suddenly realized that our model could forecast the rise and fall of nations. But that is also when the bankers began to complain to the CFTC and SEC that I was “manipulating” the world economy because they were all long Russian bonds and blamed me for their losses using the FT article as proof. They said I had too much “influence” rather than consider the possibility that just maybe we were able to forecast events that they thought bribing politicians would prevent.

The above chart is calculated from the day the Berlin Wall fell – November 9th, 1989. Our forecast for the fall of the Russian financial system in 1998 was 8,6 years from the fall of the Berlin Wall. But look at the dates beyond that 2002 (low in the US market post-DOT.COM Bubble), 2007 (the peak in the world economy & start of real estate meltdown), 2015 (Russia invade Syria, Refugees welcomed into Europe by Merkel, start of the rise in interest rates at the Fed), and the dates to come are 2019, 2024, 2028, and 2037.

This is the collapse of socialism which is the collapse of pensions and will result in a new monetary system. We will see 2019 as a financial crisis and 2024 as a rise in commodity prices.

Each domino is set in motion by the previous. Yes, my experience behind the curtain allows me to understand the real risks, but the model defines where they are and the computer will continue to write reports when I am gone.

Mar 26 2018

Protectionism & Trade Wars


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade

Re-Posted Mar 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

While Trump is being portrayed and the insane President hellbent on destroying world trade, the truth is the tariffs on steel and aluminum account for 0.2% of GDP or just 2% of actual trade flows of $2.4 trillion. On top of that, every president at least since Jimmy Carter has imposed protectionist tariffs on some portion of trade flows. Indeed, Trump has an old-world view of trade as just about every world leader. They look at trade only from a job perspective and NEVER from the viewpoint of the consumer. Anytime a country imposes a tariff to stop what they think is “unfair” competition, in reality, they are creating unfair competition. Why pay $3 for a head of lettuce if you can import it for 25 cents? This only makes the consumer pay more reducing their standard of living. Nobody ever looks at that side of the coin.