Tag Archives: ECM July 12 2018

Oct 26 2018

Eurozone will Collapse – There is No Other Choice Economically


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I can see what you have been arguing about the faulty design of the euro. After the EU rejected Italy’s budget, is there any hope left for Italy?

RS, Rome

ANSWER: For those who do not follow Europe closely, the European Union took the unprecedented step Tuesday (23rd of Oct) of rejecting Italy’s draft budget as incompatible with the bloc’s rules on fiscal discipline. This has simply validated the position many take in Italy that they are an occupied country. The Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis publicly stated that the Italian government was “openly and consciously going against commitments made” to drive down the country’s debt and deficit levels. The decision is escalating a battle between Europe’s establishment and Italians and the sooner you exit the Euro, the better Italy will survive.

From the outset, in designing the Euro they deliberately lied about just about everything. They told everyone that they would be paying the same interest rates because of the single currency. I explained that was absolutely false. They appear to have deliberately used the example of the dollar to pitch the euro but never mentioned that the single interest rate was the Federal level they were referencing. All 50 states issued their debt in the single currency of the dollar but they all paid rates according to their own credit rating.
I warned them that they MUST consolidate all the debts making that a national debt that they would have a single interest rate and that would compete with the dollar. Thereafter, each state would then issue its own debt as deeded and the free markets would price that accordingly. Under the system that I instructed them to adopt, this budget crisis would not exist. Because they FAILED to consolidate the debts from the outset, then the EU interferes with everyone’s budgets and dictates terms to them which in reality does make each state and occupied country.
This system cannot possibly survive. The Euro will collapse. There is no possible way for it to survive under this scheme. Italy should simply announce it is exiting the Eurozone. Those in Britain who want to remain are complete idiots. I cannot express it any more politely. Nobody will talk reality here!
Oct 25 2018

Why Has the USA been “Pinnacle of Global Success”


Armstrong Economics Blog/America’s Economic History

Re-Posted Oct 25, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

To the shock of everyone in politics and economics who can’t get enough socialism and want to bash that the disparity of income is so evil, these Marxists are beside themselves when the World Economic Forum released a study that shows the United States is the most competitive nation on earth. They have, however, concluded that their international economic index which finds America at the “pinnacle of global success”  cannot be attributed to the actions of any one leader or administration. Indeed, people fled Europe to American to get away from bureaucracy. This remains reflected in attitudes.

A majority of Europeans (58%) would prefer to work as an employee rather than risk starting their own business. The promises of pensions and the social state have created a vast economic different picture between Europe and America and in Asia, we see a trend that is beginning to surpass the United States. This contrasts starkly with attitudes in the United States, where a majority (51%) say they would prefer to strike out alone. The United States allowed the property to be owned whereas in Europe the title to the property remains fixed in most of London and is leased out for 100 years where people pay the value as if they had purchased the property, to begin with. Property in London that was “freehold” was rather rare. Many fled to America which was the land of opportunity to actually own property, build wealth, and leave it to your family.

Then rushes in the Marxists. They hate people inheriting wealth and call it unfair. Every generation should start at zero in their mind. Then we have the economists who argue that it is the disparity in income that suppresses the economy in Europe. So what is their solution? Regulate everything excessively and take the wealth away from those who have it and pretend you are handing it to the people if anything is left once they government gets its hands on it for their own lavish pension schemes.

The United States is the venture-capital capital of the world. That will soon be displaced by China. Nevertheless, how to actually measure entrepreneurship is a very distorted view of the economy. One popular approach among economists which overlooks the depth of a nation’s economy is to count how many new businesses with paid employees start up each year, then divide them by the number of companies that are already up and running. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), calls this percentage the “employer enterprise birth rate.” Others just call it the “start-up rate”.

From this distorted perspective, the United States scores fairly low on that definition coming in second to last when looking at the years 2007 through 2009 during the crash. The glaring flaw in this view is the fact that in the economies which are least developed come out on top, which was Slovakia and Mexico. The United States was predominantly small business also before the Industrial Revolution. Creating criteria of this nature are extremely misleading. Also, the period in question saw many young individuals start out on their own unable to find jobs with their costly degrees. They entered the self-employment segment but were not hiring people. They were breaking out and doing work in various services.

The greatest economic growth follows the LOWEST taxes, developed economies, and lower regulation. When the government attacks all three areas, our computer simply shows that economic growth declines.

Oct 19 2018

China & the Hidden Debt Crisis in the Provinces


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

RE-Posted Oct 19, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Sovereign Debt Crisis in China among the provisional governments is alive and well. The off-balance sheet government liabilities in the regions amounted to an estimated 40 trillion yuan which is almost $6 trillion. Some are calling this a “gigantic credit risk” which is a hidden liability. This represents 60% of  GDP which bypasses the debt-to-GDP ratio set by the central government on the provinces. They have created financial vehicles called LGFVs. Beijing has focused on shadow banks, regulatory loopholes, and hidden bad loans. They have curbed the shadow banking and brought the BitCoin outflow down. However, the Beijing government has only been able to reduce the credit risks associated with LGFVs marginally. The current view is that it will take China up to a decade or more to deal with the problem of LGFVs, as we enter this debt crisis cycle between 2019 and 2021, the pressure will build much sooner.

Nevertheless, we see that this debt crisis is what is holding back China short-term. Once this adjustment is addressed, we will still see China emerge as the Financial Capital of the World after 2032.

Oct 16 2018

What is Wrong with Formal Education


Armstrong Economics Blog/Education

Re-Posted Oct 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I too am French and nobody in school ever connected the weather to the defeat of Napoleon even with so many deaths on his failed invasion of Russia. History is interesting, but it seems to be taught based upon some political agenda. What would you recommend for students to study since the formal education system is such a failure?

PG

ANSWER: Yes, when I was in Paris, I was asked if I would debate the top three economic students. I agreed. However, instead of a confrontation for TV viewers, it turned out to be a question session of how to fix the French economy conceding that what they were being taught was wrong.

From a historical viewpoint, I always refer to contemporary writers. However, you must keep in mind that history is very often written only by the victor. We all learn quite a lot about history in school, but it is typically slanted. Nevertheless, it is also true that who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it. However, those of us who know history are also doomed to watch others repeat it. Ever since man has done anything, there has been someone nearby going “huh, maybe I should write this down.”

The way to understand the past REQUIRES a discipline that embraces all the fields of science. Back in the 1980s, I attended a lecture by a Scientist on the findings of the ice core samples from Greenland. When they disp[layed a graf of the energy output of the sun and documented from the ice core samples, I was stunned. I approached the presenter and informed them that their chart projected the rise and fall of empires which matched the Economic Confidence Model.

Back in the 1980s, I knew the model worked, but I could not explain why other than simply saying there were cycles. Suddenly, I saw history impacted by weather. I knew the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake set off the Panic of 1907 due to capital flows and that led to the creation of the Federal Reserves with all its branches that operated independently to manage the capital flows internally within the nation.

By keeping an open mind, I began to look at every field of science for explanations. By putting everything together, the picture became focused and suddenly the light went off. The key is being a diverse explorer. School is the opposite. I would go to Physics class and the professor would say nothing is random. Einstein said he did not believe God played dice with the universe. I then went to economics class and the professor said everything is random so don’t bother trying to forecast something. Because it’s random, that meant government could and should manipulate society to eliminate recessions. They have not succeeded in doing so even once.