Tag Archives: Ice free Arctic

Jul 31 2023

Converting El Niño into Climate Change to Further the Agenda 2030


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Jul 31, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: All of a sudden, El Niño is proof of global warming, just like the wildfires in Australia and California, as if these things never happened before. The sheep believe whatever the press tells them. That’s why you cannot stop the cycle, and 2032 is now not so far away.

HW

ANSWER: El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that have impacted weather worldwide for centuries. This very intense cycle will increase the risk of famine in parts of the world from 2024 to 2025. Here is a chart of the temperatures back to 1950. Look closely, and you will see that the cycle is very violent. It goes from hot and then plunges into a Panic Cycle type move immediately thereafter.

El Niño events are thought to have occurred for thousands of years, and only now are people claiming this is proof of humans changing the environment. It is believed that historically the Indians in Peru sacrificed humans to try to prevent the rains caused by a severe El Niño. Perhaps they might have had better success by offering politicians instead of virgins. These people latch on to anything and now with ZERO proof, they tell everyone that it is Climate Change that is making it hotter.

Perhaps we should just turn off the energy used by mainstream media and their propaganda as well as in Washington, and end taxes as Roman Emperor Tiberius did during an emergency. I would bet things will get a lot better and real fast.

Mar 28 2023

Mississippi Death Toll Now 25 as Recovery Efforts Continue


Posted originally on the CTH on March 27, 2023 | Sundance

We loaded a CERT toolbox trailer yesterday that is heading to Mississippi to assist as recovery efforts get underway.  Samaritan’s Purse is now on the ground in two locations, Rolling Fork and Armory [Register to Volunteer Here]  Any Treepers in the impact zone check in and feel free to provide updates on the ground events that relate to your area.

(Via Fox News) – Help began pouring into one of the poorest regions of the U.S. after a deadly tornado tore a path of destruction for more than an hour across a long swath of Mississippi, even as furious new storms Sunday struck across the Deep South.

At least 25 people were killed and dozens of others were injured in Mississippi as the massive storm ripped through more than a half-dozen towns late Friday. A man was also killed in Alabama after his trailer home flipped over several times.

“Everything I can see is in some state of destruction,” said Jarrod Kunze, who drove to the hard-hit Mississippi town of Rolling Fork from his home in Alabama, ready to help “in whatever capacity I’m needed.”

[…] The storm hit so quickly that the sheriff’s department in Rolling Fork barely had time to set off sirens to warn the community of 2,000 residents, said Mayor Eldridge Walker.

“And by the time they initiated the siren, the storm had hit and it tore down the siren that’s located right over here,” Walker said, referring to an area just blocks from downtown.  The mayor said his town was devastated.

“Sharkey County, Mississippi, is one of the poorest counties in the state of Mississippi, but we’re still resilient,” he said. “We’ve got a long way to go, and we certainly thank everybody for their prayers and for anything they will do or can do for this community.”

[…] Following Biden’s declaration, federal funding will be available for recovery efforts in Mississippi’s Carroll, Humphreys, Monroe and Sharkey counties, including temporary housing, home repairs, loans covering uninsured property losses and other individual and business programs, the White House said in a statement.

The twister flattened entire blocks, obliterated houses, ripped a steeple off a church and toppled a municipal water tower.

Based on early data, the tornado received a preliminary EF-4 rating, the National Weather Service office in Jackson said in a tweet. An EF-4 tornado has top wind gusts between 166 mph and 200 mph.

In Rolling Fork, the tornado reduced homes to piles of rubble and flipped cars on their sides. Other parts of the Deep South were digging out from damage caused by other suspected twisters. (read more)

Samaritan’s Purse is setting up in the following locations:

ROLLING FORK/SILVER CITY
Lake Washington First Baptist Church
1068 Lake Washington Rd E
Glen Allan, MS 38744

AMORY
First Assembly of God Amory
521 Tschudi Road
Amory, MS 38821

[Details and information Here]

Dear God, please bring the residents and families of those in the Mississippi area to Your throne of comfort. The shock and pain is unimaginable as they anguish over the loss of their town, their homes, their sense of normalcy and possibly their loved ones.

Father of mercy and comfort wrap Your loving arms around them. Hold them close. Help them to breathe and overcome the choking knot of despair in their throat.  Raise them, strengthen them, provide assurance for them.  Help the victims to see forward.  Dear Lord please provide wisdom and strength to the leaders of every community.

Please God, provide strength for their continued faith in You through this horrific destruction. Lavish them with Your love and fill the void of loss in their hearts.

In Jesus’ powerful name, I believe and pray.

Amen.

Mar 2 2023

The test that exonerates CO2


The test that exonerates CO2

The test that exonerates CO2

6 days ago

Guest Blogger

521 Comments

By Javier Vinós

Most people don’t have a clear understanding of the greenhouse effect (GHE). It is not complicated to understand, but it is usually not well explained. It is often described as “heat-trapping,” but that is incorrect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) do not trap heat, even if more heat resides within the climate system due to their presence in the atmosphere. The truth is that after adjusting to a change in GHG levels, the planet still returns all the energy it receives from the Sun. Otherwise, it would continue warming indefinitely. So, there is no change in the energy returned. How do GHGs produce GHE?

GHGs cause the atmosphere to be more opaque to infrared radiation. As solar radiation heats mainly the ocean and land surface of the planet, GHGs absorb thermal emission from the surface at the lower troposphere and immediately pass that energy along to other molecules (typically N2 and O2) through collisions that occur much faster than the time it would take to re-emit the radiation. This warms the lower troposphere. The density and temperature decrease rapidly through the troposphere, so molecules are colder and more separated at the upper troposphere. Now GHGs have a chance to emit IR radiation so when they finally collide with another molecule, they are colder so GHGs have a cooling effect in the upper troposphere and stratosphere.

Because GHGs make the atmosphere more opaque to IR radiation, when they are present the emission to space from the planet normally does not take place from the surface (as happens in the Moon). Part of it still takes place from the surface through the atmospheric window, but most of it takes place from higher in the atmosphere. We can define a theoretical effective emission height as the average height at which the Earth’s outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is being emitted. The temperature at which the Earth emits is the temperature at the effective emission height in the atmosphere. That temperature, when measured from space is 250 K (-23°C), not 255 which is the calculated temperature for a theoretical blackbody Earth. That temperature corresponds to a height of about 5 km, which we call the effective emission height.

The last piece we need to understand the GHE is the lapse rate, which in the troposphere is positive, meaning that temperature decreases with height. Without a positive lapse rate, the GHE does not work. Since GHGs cause the planet to emit from a higher altitude, due to making the atmosphere more opaque to IR radiation, that altitude is colder due to the lapse rate. The Earth still needs to return all the energy received from the Sun, but colder molecules emit less. So, the planet will go through a period when it will emit less than it should, warming the surface and the lower troposphere until the new height of emission achieves the temperature necessary to return all the energy, at which point the planet stops warming.

The GHE simply states that the temperature at the surface (Ts) is just the temperature of emission (Te) plus the lapse rate (Γ) times the height of emission (Ze).


Ts = Te + ΓZe

Held & Soden (2000) illustrated it in figure 1:



This is how the GHE actually works. An increase in CO2 means an increase in the height of emission. Since the temperature of emission must remain the same, the temperature from the surface to the new height of emission must increase. The increase is small but significant. As Held and Soden say:



“The increase in opacity due to a doubling of CO2 causes Ze to rise by ≈150 meters. This results in a reduction in the effective temperature of the emission across the tropopause by ≈(6.5K/km) (150 m) ≈1 K.”Held and Soden

So, the temperature at the surface must increase by 1K. That’s the direct warming caused by the doubling of CO2, before the feedbacks (mainly water vapor) kick in, further raising the height of emission.

This also has an interesting prediction. If the warming is due to an increase in CO2 when the increase takes place and the altitude of emission increases, the planet should emit less OLR as the new altitude is colder and a reduced OLR is the warming mechanism. Once the warming takes place, the OLR will become the same as before the GHG increase. It says so in Held and Soden’s figure 1 caption: “Note that the effective emission temperature (Te) remains unchanged.” Same Te, same OLR. So, if CO2 is responsible for the surface temperature increase, we should first expect less OLR and then the same OLR. If at any time we detect more OLR that would indicate another cause for the warming. Anything that makes the surface warmer, except GHGs, will increase the temperature of emission, increasing OLR.

So, this is the test:

– Surface warming but less or same OLR: CO2 is guilty as charged

– Surface warming and more OLR: CO2 is innocent

And the test results can be evaluated for example with Derwitte and Clerbaux 2018:



“decadal changes of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) as measured by the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System from 2000 to 2018, the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment from 1985 to 1998, and the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder from 1985 to 2018 are analyzed. The OLR has been rising since 1985, and correlates well with the rising global temperature.“Derwitte and Clerbaux 2018

CO2 is innocent. Its fingerprint is not found at the crime scene. Something else is warming the planet and causing the increase in OLR.

Bibliography:

Dewitte, S. and Clerbaux, N., 2018. Decadal changes of earth’s outgoing longwave radiation. Remote Sensing, 10(10), p.1539.
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/10/10/1539/pdf

Held, I.M. and Soden, B.J., 2000. Water vapor feedback and global warming. Annual review of energy and the environment, 25(1), pp.441-475.
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.441

Stephens, G.L., O’Brien, D., Webster, P.J., Pilewski, P., Kato, S. and Li, J.L., 2015. The albedo of Earth. Reviews of geophysics, 53(1), pp.141-163.

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Feb 10 2023

Death Toll in Turkey/Syria Earthquake Climbs Above 20,000 – With an Estimated 6,500 Buildings Collapsed


Posted originally on the CTH on February 9, 2023 | Sundance 

Hopes are fading amid the rescue and recovery workers in the aftermath of the horrific earthquake that hit southern Turkey and northern Syria.  Reuters is providing an update on the devastation in the region.  The scale of the impact is widespread and devastating as even more recovery workers continue arriving.

ANTAKYA, Turkey/JANDARIS, Syria, Feb 9, (Reuters) – Cold, hunger and despair gripped hundreds of thousands of people left homeless after the earthquakes that struck Turkey and Syria three days ago as the death toll passed 20,000 on Thursday.

The rescue of a 2-year-old boy after 79 hours trapped in the rubble of a collapsed building in Hatay, Turkey, and several other people raised spirits among weary search crews. But hopes were fading that many more would be found alive in the ruins of towns and cities.

[…] Hundreds of thousands of people in both countries have been left homeless in the middle of winter. Many have camped out in makeshift shelters in supermarket car parks, mosques, roadsides or amid the ruins, often desperate for food, water and heat.

[…] Authorities say some 6,500 buildings in Turkey collapsed and countless more were damaged.

The death toll in Turkey rose to 17,406, Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said. In Syria, already devastated by nearly 12 years of civil war, more than 3,300 people have died, according to the government and a rescue service in the rebel-held northwest.

In the devastated Syrian town of Jandaris, Ibrahim Khalil Menkaween walked in the rubble-strewn streets clutching a white body bag. He said he had lost seven members of his family, including his wife and two of his brothers.

“I’m holding this bag for when they bring out my brother, and my brother’s young son, and both of their wives, so we can pack them in bags,” he said. “The situation is very bad. And there is no aid.”

Turkish officials say some 13.5 million people were affected in an area spanning roughly 450 km (280 miles) from Adana in the west to Diyarbakir in the east. In Syria, people were killed as far south as Hama, 250 km from the epicentre.

Rescue crews looked for survivors at the site of a collapsed building in the dark in the city of Adiyaman with temperatures below freezing, Turkish broadcasters showed.

[…] There were still some signs of hope.

A 2-year-old boy was picked out of the rubble by a Romanian and Polish rescue team in Hatay 79 hours after the earthquake, video released by Turkey’s Humanitarian Relief Foundation (IHH) on Thursday showed.

The boy, wearing a blue, white and black striped sweater, cried as he was gently lifted from the hole where he had been trapped. He was carried away on a blanket. No other details were immediately available.

Another video from IHH showed a helmeted and dust-streaked rescuer weeping with emotion after successfully freeing a little girl from the rubble of a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras. (read more)

All-powerful Father, as we see all of the destruction caused by this natural disaster, we mourn for all that has been lost and the fragility of this life.

Lord God of mercy, please comfort those who have lost somebody they love, and those who are yet still searching. Give them comfort and peace.

Heavenly Father, be a protective wing for those who have survived, but lost their home. Grant the men, women and children the needed fortitude and assistance they need to recover and rebuild.  Show me how best to pray for their needs and guide my prayer. 

Lord God of all creation, be strong with directed purpose for those whose job it is to search through the rubble for those lost.  Give them endurance and strength as they complete their responsibilities.

God of comfort and mercy, help us come together as one body in You during this time of tragedy.

You are the redeemer, the source of all strength and courage, please provide us with reassurance, humanity and faith. 

In Your holy and merciful name, we humbly kneel and pray. 

~ Amen.

Feb 9 2023

Earthquakes in Turkey/Syria


Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Feb 8, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Double Earthquake that hit Turkey & Syria has been extraordinary. The first quake was a 7.8 magnitude sticking in southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria early Monday morning local time. Then 9 hours later, a second quake, which recorded a magnitude of 7.5, struck hard. Both countries have witnessed the devastating aftermath as rescue workers on the ground are reporting that nearly 12,000 people have been killed as a result of the quakes, and tens of thousands more have been injured. Thousands of buildings have also been reduced to rubble.

This region is prone to these major DOUBLE earthquakes. Overall, since the major earthquake of 17AD that was so created a financial panic in Rome and forced Emperor Tiberius to issue these coins noting that they were for the relief of that region,  there have been 81 major earthquakes. There have been many double earthquakes and the previous was in 2017 June 12th and July 21st. Before that in 2011, there was a Double Earthquake on the 23rd of October and then on November 9th.

What is unusual this time is the time differential was only 9 hours rather than days. This raises the concern that this event may not be over just yet.

Feb 7 2023

Horrific Death Toll Continues Rising from Earthquake in Turkey/Syria as Aftershocks Continue – So Far 5,600 Buildings Have Collapsed


Posted originally on the CTH on February 6, 2023 | Sundance

I did not have internet access for most of today, another long-term recovery issue.  However, now that I am seeing the footage of the earthquake in Southern Turkey and Northern Syria, my prayers are for all of those in the region.  The devastation is just incredible.

According to the Associated Press, 5,600 buildings have collapsed and several of them came down today during aftershocks amid search and rescue operations.  The current recorded death toll is over 4,300 people, with the World Health Organization (WHO) predicting the total loss of life could exceed 20,000.  This is just horrific.

The estimated 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit over an area of several major population centers. The Guardian reports, “the population of the ten provinces in southern Turkey affected by the earthquakes are home to 13.5 million people. So far, according to the Andalou agency, more than 5,600 buildings have collapsed.

It is just after 6am in Turkey, and we’re seeing stories of people rescued after a very long day and night, which means they survived not only the rubble’s collapse but the cold. There are many, many more who have not yet been found, with the WHO predicting the death toll could reach 20,000 in the coming days. For now, here are videos of a three-year-old toddler and a woman who were freed from collapsed buildings by rescuers.” (link)

(Via Reuters) […] The magnitude 7.8 quake brought down whole apartment blocks in Turkish cities and piled more devastation on millions of Syrians displaced by years of war. It struck before sunrise in harsh weather and was followed in the early afternoon by another large quake.

In Diyarbakir in southeast Turkey, a woman speaking next to the wreckage of the seven-storey block where she lived said: “We were shaken like a cradle. There were nine of us at home. Two sons of mine are still in the rubble, I’m waiting for them.”

She was nursing a broken arm and had injuries to her face.

“It was like the apocalypse,” said Abdul Salam al-Mahmoud, a Syrian in the northern town of Atareb. “It’s bitterly cold and there’s heavy rain, and people need saving.” (more)

All-powerful Father, as we see all of the destruction caused by this natural disaster, we mourn for all that has been lost and the fragility of this life.

Lord God of mercy, please comfort those who have lost somebody they love, and those who are yet still searching. Give them comfort and peace.

Heavenly Father, be a protective wing for those who have survived, but lost their home. Grant the men, women and children the needed fortitude and assistance they need to recover and rebuild.  Show me how best to pray for their needs and guide my prayer. 

Lord God of all creation, be strong with directed purpose for those whose job it is to search through the rubble for those lost.  Give them endurance and strength as they complete their responsibilities.

God of comfort and mercy, help us come together as one body in You during this time of tragedy.

You are the redeemer, the source of our strength and courage, please provide us with reassurance, humanity and faith. 

In Your holy and merciful name, we humbly kneel and pray. 

Amen.

Jan 15 2023

Two More Bodies Recovered in Aftermath of Hurricane Ian


Posted originally on the CTh on January 14, 2023 | Sundance

Their names will not make national headlines, and generally everyone has moved on, but to their families and friends Ilonka Knes and James Hurst mattered.  As CTH readers may remember, in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian we shared that many missing people would be found in the months after the storm, and unfortunately many more will likely never be found.

The body of Mrs Ilonka Knes (82) was found in the mangroves and back bay salt marsh near Fort Myers Beach and has been positively identified. The body of her husband Robert was found in the days immediately following Hurricane Ian.

Additionally, the sailboat “Good Girl” was found submerged with human remains believed to be the body of James ‘Denny’ Hurst (73).

Mrs. Knes and Mr Hurst bring the total number of Hurricane Ian victims in Lee County, Florida, to seventy-five.  Mr. Hurst was the final “official” missing person on the local list; however, there are many more yet unaccounted that were not from this immediate area.   The physical devastation is widespread, but the emotional toll on the families and friends of the missing has been beyond imagining.  Tonight, two more families have answers.

(FLORIDA) – During Thursday’s news conference, Lee County Sheriff Carmine Marceno released new information regarding the area’s recovery.

“Most of us have gotten back to a sense of the new normal. For some, still missing their loved ones, every day since the storm has been difficult,” said Marceno.

The sheriff said his agency originally attempted a well-being check at what was left at the home of Ilonka and Robert Knes in the aftermath of the storm.

The body of Robert Knes was found shortly after Ian struck, but there were no signs of his wife during the days and weeks following the disaster.

Marceno said it wasn’t until mid-January that a debris removal crew found remains in a dense patch of mangroves, that later tested positive, through the use of dental records, to be that of Ilonka. (more)

The power and duration of Hurricane Ian killed more people than Hurricane Andrew and the storm that hit Southwest Florida last September is now recorded as the deadliest storm in the past 87 years.

If you live anywhere along the coastline of the United States, inland to about 50 miles, please remember to always take these storms seriously.

After this storm, and having been through four previous direct impacts, including Homestead AFB (Andrew), I would say this….  If there is even a remote chance you would ever encounter this type of a hurricane event, EVACUATE.  Do not try and hunker down if there is a looming possibility of having to rely on a structure to withstand 150+ mph wind for a full day.  Just leave.  With all of my preparations in place, and all of the knowledge I possess in storm survival, I would never attempt it again.

It is more than three months since Hurricane Ian hit Southwest Florida and beyond the chaos and debris that still remains visible almost everywhere, they are still recovering bodies.  Please take hurricane preparations seriously.

Lessons from Ian – Part One

Lessons from Ian – Part Two

Dec 23 2022

Severe Winter Storm Brings Cold, Snow and Proactive Warnings from White House


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 22, 2022 | Sundance 

Extreme winter weather, such as subzero temperatures, wind chills and heavy snow, is impacting much of the U.S. this Christmas holiday weekend and is expected to heavily impact travel.  Major parts of the U.S. electricity grid are very vulnerable, particularly as a result of Biden energy policy, steering investment away from coal, oil and natural gas.

Places across the northern Rockies, northern Plains and upper Midwest are experiencing temperature drops by tens of degrees in minutes.  The extremely cold airmass is expected to hit at least 24 other states along the Gulf Coast and in the eastern U.S.  The National Weather Service has a Detailed Warning HERE.

The potential for severe consequences as an outcome of this winter storm has the political minders of Joe Biden worried.

.

(Via NWS) – A major and anomalous storm system is forecast to produce a multitude of weather hazards through early this weekend, as heavy snowfall, strong winds, and dangerously cold temperatures span from the northern Great Basin through the Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and the northern/central Appalachians.

At the forefront of the impressive weather pattern is a dangerous and record-breaking cold air mass in the wake of a strong arctic cold front diving southward across the southern Plains today and eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by tonight.

Behind the front, temperatures across the central High Plains have already plummeted 50 degrees F in just a few hours, with widespread subzero readings extending throughout much of the central/northern Plains and northern Rockies/Great Basin.

These temperatures combined with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and higher wind gusts of up to 60 mph will continue to lead to wind chills as low as minus 40 degrees across a large swath of the Intermountain West and northern/central Plains, with more localized areas of minus 50 to minus 70 possible through the end of the week. (read more)

I am reminded of Fort Wainwright, Alaska, in January of 1989, when a cold airmass settled on the state for weeks. It was so cold (-50°, -70° or worse) that airplanes could not achieve lift.  McGrath went from +29° to -42° during a work shift.  During a single work shift everyone’s truck tires were flat and frozen. LOL… Crazy stuff.

Joe Biden – “I’m going to, shortly, be briefed by — by both FEMA and the National Weather Service, and we’re going to start that briefing.
 
And — but in the meantime, please take this storm extremely seriously.  And I don’t know whether your bosses will let you, but if you all have travel plans, leave now.  Not — not a joke.  I’m tell- — sending my staff — my staff, if they have plans to leave on — tomorrow — late tonight or tomorrow, I’m telling them to leave now.  They can talk to me on the phone.  It’s not life and death.  But it will be if they don’t — if they don’t get out, they may not get out.
 
So, any rate, thank you all for coming in, and I’m going to do the briefing now.  Thank you.” (link)

The polar air will bring “extreme and prolonged freezing conditions for southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana,” the National Weather Service (NWS) said in a special weather statement Sunday.

“We’re looking at much-below normal temperatures, potentially record-low temperatures leading up to the Christmas holiday,” said NWS meteorologist Zack Taylor. (link)

Dec 21 2022

Armstrong Economics Blog/Nature Re-Posted Dec 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong


QUESTION: Marty, we had an earthquake here in Northern California today that seems to be following your forecast building into 2028. Can you update your earthquake chart?

Thank you

Jeff

ANSWER: Here is the update. Socrates has already pulled that data down. Yes, the trend appears to be building into a serious cluster for 2028 which may exceed that of 1954. This chart is recording ONLY those quakes that are 6.0 or higher. There are numerous quakes in the 4 to 5 range. It was the 1906 Earthquake that set in motion the Panic of 1907 since the insurance companies were in NYC and the claims were in California. It was JP Morgan who stepped up to save the banks in NY and that became the model for how the Federal Reserve was created with 13 branches to manage the regional capital flows that resulted in the financial crisis in the aftermath of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake which was a 7.7 on the Richter Scale.

This chart presents the total number of quakes regardless of the magnitude. Here we can see that 1992 was the year with the greatest number of quakes irrespective of magnitude. This is a different perspective entirely. The top chart is what I have called the cluster perspective where we only took into account 6.0 or higher. This illustrates that just like market activity, earthquakes build in intensity. They produce clusters of magnitude. The next serious period should still be 2028.