Jun 24 2025

Iran Launches Strike on US At Qatar for Show


Posted originally on Jun 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Iran launched an attack on Doha, the United States forces at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and all the missiles were shot down; there was no damage. However, sources are saying that this was just for show and that there was a back-channel warning from Iran in advance to save face.

United States President Donald Trump has announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, set to be phased in over the next 24 hours after a frenetic day of conflict in the region.

Israel and Iran have yet to comment on Trump’s announcement.

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The announcement follows an attack on US forces at Al Udeid airbase in Qatar on Monday, after Tehran said it would retaliate for the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with the Qatari authorities saying missiles were successfully intercepted.

“On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR’,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social site.

US military officials said that Al Udeid Air Base was the only US military base targeted by Iran, according to the Reuters news agency. The officials confirmed that there had been no impact on the base just outside Qatar’s capital, Doha. A US defence official added that “Al Udeid Air Base was attacked by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles originating from Iran today”.

“At this time, there are no reports of US casualties. We are monitoring this situation closely and will provide more information as it becomes available,” the official said.

Following the attack, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a post X that “we have not violated anyone’s rights, and we will not under any circumstances accept any violation against us, nor will we surrender to anyone’s aggression; this is the logic of the Iranian nation.”

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later added that the country is ready to respond again if the US takes any further action, according to a statement posted on Telegram.

United States President Donald Trump said Iran had “a very weak response” and thanked the country’s leadership for providing “early notice” of the retaliatory attack.

“I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

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“Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system,’ and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured.”

Qatar condemns attacks

Flares were visible over Qatar’s capital, Doha, on Monday. It was initially not immediately known if this was the air defence system or missiles.

Loud explosions were also heard, although so far no injuries have been reported. Qatar’s Ministry of Defence says its air defence systems successfully intercepted missiles targeting Al Udeid Air Base.

In a statement, the ministry said the incident resulted in no deaths or injuries, crediting “the vigilance of the armed forces and precautionary measures taken”.

Qatar has confirmed that a total of 19 missiles were fired from Iran. It added that only one of those hit Al Udeid Air Base but caused no casualties.

Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi says it’s still uncertain whether Iran’s latest strikes mark the end of its response to US attacks on its nuclear facilities.

“Whether this will be the final attack, or if more are to come, is still unclear,” he said. From Tehran’s perspective, there may be a sense that the situation is now balanced. But Iran also views this as part of a larger, ongoing confrontation, Asadi added.

“The Iranians claim that not only the US, but also European countries, are supplying Israel with the infrastructure and weaponry” used to strike Iranian targets. “So, from Iran’s point of view, it is part of an ongoing battle in which it is being targeted on a daily basis,” he said.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that the missile strike against the Al Udeid Air Base was far away from residential areas in Qatar.

“This action does not pose any threat to the friendly and brotherly country, Qatar, and its noble people, and the Islamic Republic of Iran remains committed to maintaining and continuing warm and historic relations with Qatar,” the council said in a statement.

Iran and Qatar enjoy fraternal relations, and the Qatari government has condemned both the Israeli and US attacks on Iran.

Qatar, nevertheless, condemned the attack as a blatant violation of its sovereignty.

Jun 24 2025

Qui Sera Sera – What Will Be Will Be


Posted originally on Jun 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: Marty, that clip of Larry Summers you played at the WEC says it all. They try desperately to discredit you so nobody will listen and think that will stop your forecast. That clip shows that they still want to discredit you, for they do believe it is just your opinion. They cannot fathom that you created an AI computer 40 years before everyone else. Oh, yes, people publish books claiming it is their research when they lack the database or historical context to reach the same conclusion. That reveals that they are in this for ego, and when that moment comes, this is your destiny to advise us on how to set up for the next cycle. I know you are frustrated and would prefer if Scotty beamed you up. This is your purpose, your destiny, or fate. You are stuck here with us for now.

HW

Coup 2

REPLY: I think you are right. They believe that if they can discredit me, they will prevent the forecast from being made. They are fools. I have done everything to try to defeat my own computer, and I always lose. I pushed for Trump and even argued that RFK should join Trump because he was anti-war. I knew the Neocons held Kamala in the palm of their hand. I hoped that putting in Trump would defeat the Neocons.

The Neocons went offshore, got Europe to stab Trump in the back to prevent peace, and then Netanyahu, a staunch Neocon buddy of Bill Kristol, snuck in the back door to convince Trump this was a one-time event that would end the war. Very clever. So, despite my efforts to defeat Socrates, Trump has just proven that I failed again.

I remember when I was a kid, there was a popular song that also said it all: What will be, will be.

Qui sera sera

Jun 24 2025

Iran into 2027


Posted originally on Jun 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

IRAN ECM

While many are calling this attack on Iran just theater and that Trump had to pretend he bombed Iran since there appears to be no significant damage, regardless of whether it was real or not, the shock in the Arab world is real, and this is still the beginning, not the end. Our computer does NOT show that this war cycle will be subsiding. The reactions from numerous sources are real. The U.S. joined Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear sites on June 21, which was named “Operation Midnight Hammer.” President Donald Trump wrote, “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran.” Israel continues to target Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure.

Despite these claims that the attack was FAKE, reliable sources confirm that Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, has arrived in Moscow this morning, petitioning for direct support from Putin. As I have stated, both Iran and Ukraine are part of the same Neocon plot. Russia’s TASS news agency has reported that Araghchi did make a statement upon his arrival in Moscow before any talks took place.

“We have always had shared concerns, worries, and adversaries with Russia. We have always shared common beliefs and consulted closely with each other to confront shared challenges and threats. This is what will be done on Monday during the meeting with the Russian president.” 

There has been rising opposition within Iran that began in 2018, right on target.

  1. Economic Protests (Continued from Dec 2017 – Jan 2018)
  2. Dervish Protests (February 2018)
  3. Protests over Water Scarcity & Economic Hardship (Summer 2018)
  4. Nationwide Fuel Price Protests (November 2019)
  5. Protests over Downing of Ukraine Flight PS752 (January 2020)
  6. Khuzestan Water Protests (July 2021)
  7. Nationwide Protests over Economic Hardship & Death in Custody (May 2022) (“Death to Khamenei”).
  8. “Woman, Life, Freedom” Uprising (September 2022 – Ongoing Impact). Repression saw extreme brutality that permanently damaged the regime’s legitimacy among the youth.

This list captures major waves, but numerous smaller-scale protests over wages, unpaid salaries, pension cuts, environmental issues, and local grievances occur constantly across Iran. The “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement represents the most profound challenge to the Islamic Republic’s authority in its history. Protests frequently erupt around anniversaries of key events (Amini’s death, executions like Mohsen Shekari and Majidreza Rahnavard), funerals of killed protesters (e.g., Armita Geravand), and new incidents (e.g., poisonings of schoolgirls).

As our model wars, we are in the final up-leg of Iran, where we are likely to see the overthrow of the government in 2027. However, between then and now, the government is fighting for its survival domestically, which implies that it will become more authoritarian, just as we see this same trend in all governments experiencing economic decline by 2028.

The world is bracing for Iran’s response after the US strikes. The State Department is warning Americans to be cautious, especially those in Europe. The Islamic Republic vowed to retaliate, and Israel showed no sign of letting up. Yet, Iran’s Abbas Araghchi urgently flew to Moscow this morning to seek support. Donald Trump has threatened further military action if Tehran doesn’t make peace with Israel. That is just not going to happen. The Neocons have boxed Trump in brilliantly and are once again major players in American Foreign policy with the US Intelligence Agencies that offer no hope of this being FAKE or just a passing event. Many airlines are canceling flights to the Persian Gulf, and Japan’s biggest banks are considering pulling their staff from the region.

Jun 24 2025

Supreme Court (6-3 Decision) Lifts Injunction From Lower Court on Deportations – Judge Says Defy Supreme Court, Injunction Remains


Posted originally on CTH on June 24, 2025 | Sundance

Activist U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy previously blocked President Trump from deporting criminal illegal aliens to non-originating countries, as many countries refused to take back their criminal aliens.  The administration appealed the injunction to the Supreme Court and the high court ruled in favor of the Trump administration and DHS [SCOTUS RULING HERE]

However, after the high court lifted the block, Judge Murphy doubled down on his injunction, saying the Supreme Court decision does not pertain to his order.

WASHINGTON DC – The Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for the Trump administration to swiftly deport foreigners to countries where they have no previous ties.

The justices lifted an order from a federal judge in Boston who had placed restrictions on the deportations to those countries. U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy had issued a nationwide injunction that required the administration to give immigrants “meaningful” advance notice and a chance to raise objections before they are sent to so-called third countries — nations not specified in their original deportation orders. But the Supreme Court granted the Trump administration’s emergency request to put Murphy’s injunction on hold.(more)

In response to the Supreme Court overruling his decision, U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy said late Monday that his injunction blocking the deportation of certain non-citizens to South Sudan and other third-party countries “remains in full force and effect.”

Jun 24 2025

Israel Formally Accepts President Trump’s Ceasefire Against Iranian Hostilities


Posted originally on CTH on June 24, 2025 | Sundance

Israel has agreed to the terms and conditions established by President Donald Trump:

[SOURCE]

“Israel has eliminated an immediate dual existential threat, both in the nuclear domain and in the field of ballistic missiles. Additionally, the IDF achieved full air superiority over Tehran, dealt a severe blow to the military leadership, and destroyed dozens of key government targets in Iran,” the statement says. “Even in the past day, the IDF dealt major blows to regime targets in the heart of Tehran, eliminated hundreds of Basij operatives, the regime’s oppression apparatus, and assassinated another senior nuclear scientist,” it continues. “Israel thanks President Trump and the United States for their support in defense and for their role in removing the Iranian nuclear threat.”

Jun 24 2025

JD Vance Discusses the “Complete and Total Ceasefire” to the 12-Day War


Posted originally on CTH on June 23, 2025 | Sundance

Vice President JD Vance appears on Fox News with Bret Baier to discuss the ceasefire and peace plan between Iran and Israel.  Vice President Vance notes the entire Middle-East wanted to deal with the Iranian issue and were appreciative of President Donald Trump dealing with the issue.  WATCH:

.

Jun 24 2025

President Trump Outwitted Benjamin Netanyahu – The “12 Day War” is Over!


Posted originally on CTH on June 23, 2025 | Sundance

If you are confused about what happened in the past 96 hours, that’s understandable.

Cliff notes. The Occam’s Razor was always accurate. President Trump didn’t want to escalate with Iran. Netanyahu forced President Trump into a supportive box with attacks against Iran. President Trump responded with a public hug to Bibi and eventually a U.S. bombing of the Iran nuclear sites. Israel was big happy. However, Trump’s emissary Steve Witkoff never stopped communicating with Iran on peace approach, and negotiated/coordinated a face-saving Iranian retaliation via a happy to oblige Qatar.

Iran retaliated against the USA support for Israel with a pre-planned attack on a U.S. base in Qatar, which was easily managed. Iran saves face against evil Trump. Meanwhile, loyal friend to Israel, Trump has facilitated the request of Bibi. Diplomacy now returns sans operational nuclear sites.  No regime change. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Israeli lobbyist Mark Levin are furious.

All the pro-war Israel-First pundits who sold a narrative of Trump duping the Iranians were wrong.  Trump never wanted the conflict escalation, nor did Trump pre-plan with Netanyahu to pretend diplomacy.  Pure fantasy speculation. The prior diplomatic efforts between the USA and Iran were genuine from the Trump administration, despite the duplicity from the Iranian side.

In a weakened state the Iranian regime and the Israeli government are now directed to engage in “peace and harmony,” against the new backdrop of the nuclear sites out of commission. Trump’s out. We’re done.

Mark Levin (aka, Old Yeller) – “The Iranian Nazi regime is desperately trying to hold on to power with no effective options. Will the regime be provided an “off ramp” without surrendering unconditionally?  In other words, will the regime be given a lifeline, and survive to terrorize and murder, build more ballistic missiles, and develop nukes and intercontinental missiles in the future? That would be a disastrous outcome after all of this.”

There are no current nuclear sites.

President Trump says, “Go peacefully negotiate!” We support you both.

Peace, out!

PRESIDENT TRUMP – CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!

Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World. During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL.

On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, “THE 12 DAY WAR.” This is a War that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t, and never will! God bless Israel, God bless Iran, God bless the Middle East, God bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD!

DONALD J. TRUMP,
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (LINK)

Jun 24 2025

President Trump Thanks Iran for Their Polite Retaliation and Tells Israel They Can Seek Peace Now


Posted originally on CTH on June 23, 2025 | Sundance

President Trump has responded with a “thank you” to Iran for their forewarned retaliation; noting he will “enthusiastically encourage” Israel to seek peace now.  Via Truth Social:

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA” (source)

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “I’d like to thank the Highly Respected Emir of Qatar for all that he has done in seeking Peace for the Region. Regarding the attack today at the American Base in Qatar, I am pleased to report that, in addition to no Americans being killed or wounded, very importantly, there have also been no Qataris killed or wounded. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (source)

Jun 24 2025

Easy Peasy – Iran Retaliates With Missiles Targeting Previously Evacuated Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar


Posted originally on CTH on June 23, 2025 | Sundance

A few surface points. The time of day, just after 8pm local reflects an “attack” intended to be intercepted, reviewed and assessed. The target U.S. base in Qatar, an intermediary and friendly geopolitical ally to Iran, reflects coordination to give optics of retaliation in name only. No doubt Iran coordinated this retaliatory strike with Qatar. The scale, 6 easily intercepted missiles.

In summary, a response from Iran intended for domestic consumption to give/save regional face for Persians.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards, in an official statement:

In response to the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, we carried out a powerful and devastating missile strike against a strategic asset – the largest American airbase in the Middle East. Any repetition of U.S. aggression will accelerate the collapse of the American military establishment in the region.

Qatar condemns the puff-n-bluster ballistic missile attack by Iran on U.S. Al Udeid Air Base, adding that all of the missiles were intercepted and that there are no reported injuries so far.  If Iran does it again, they will be met with a more strongly worded letter.

In return Iran’s top security body tells Qatar: “THIS ACTION DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO ‘OUR FRIENDLY AND BROTHERLY’ NEIGHBOUR QATAR”

Iran’s military claimed it had carried out a “devastating and powerful” missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. military base in Doha, but Qatar said the missiles were intercepted. Qatari officials said the nation reserves the right to respond directly and in accordance with international law after Iran tried to strike the base.

A U.S. defense official confirmed to USA TODAY that Al Udeid Air Base was attacked by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles originating from Iran. There were no reports of U.S. casualties, the official said.

President Donald Trump is in the Situation Room with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, a senior Department of Defense official told ABC News.

Trump was scheduled to meet with his national security team in the Oval Office at 1 p.m. on Monday afternoon, but the meeting was moved to the Situation Room as reports came in of Iran’s attack on a U.S. military base in Qatar. A U.S. official said the U.S. intercepted Iranian missiles with assistance from Qatar.

The proverbial “response” ball is back on Donald Trump’s side of the court.

Jun 24 2025

The “Next Move” Belongs to Iran


Posted originally on CTH on June 23, 2025 | Sundance

Jonathan Karl is not known for his pragmatic pontification, however in the framework of what comes next following the U.S. bombing of Iran, he’s correct.  The next move is entirely up to Iran, and for the moment that puts the decision to escalate outside the control of President Trump.

As Karl outlines, President Trump was adamant the strikes against the Iranian nuclear sites were “one and done.”  However, the underlying consideration in the background was the contingency planning for what comes next.  As Karl accurately notes, this puts the power of escalation in the hands of Iran.  If Iran strikes U.S. military facilities, President Trump will be pulled into a larger military response, and so – the potential for the escalation spiral begins.

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl spoke to President Donald Trump about what he hopes these attacks on Iran will accomplish.  WATCH:

I think most agree that we do not want to see Iran gaining nuclear weapons power.  However, most Americans also do not want to get pulled into a protracted conflict in the middle east again.  It is a tenuous moment.