China’s Housing Boom


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; What about the Chinese housing bubble. Why has this been so different in many ways?

IX

ANSWER: The primary difference is the simple fact that Chinese cannot take their money out of the country under the capital controls. Consequently, the property market has become their bank account. They have been moving from public to private assets in China as well. This is starkly different from housing bubbles in the West where it was not a capital shelter due to capital controls

Canadian Separatists


COMMENT: I think the danger for Canada is not Quebec leaving because they get 11 billion dollars a year given to them by the federal government, it is the provinces paying the bills that are more likely to leave, western Canada in general but especially Alberta which has been getting hosed. As you noted before resentment is what is produced by giving billions of mostly western Canadian dollars to eastern Canada each year. Now Trudeau is attacking the oil industry that pays the bills, the man is insane and destroying Canada.

RB

REPLY: I am fully aware that the Separatist movement is rising very rapidly in Canada and it is the West v East. Trudeau’s socialist agenda is again imposing the philosophy of class warfare upon the whole of Canada. This only inspires uprising and discontent as we are seeing in Europe. The very same issues were behind the Trump Revolution. The media keeps desperately trying to overthrow Trump as president to save the socialist agenda in the USA.

Understand that this is the death of socialism. As it declines as an economic philosophy, those who are diehard leftists will do whatever they can to take power back.

NAFTA & CANADA


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Up here in Canada, the politicians seem to not even talk about the NAFTA agreement being changed by Trump. Has something taken place behind the curtain that they are not even worried about that issue?

CB

ANSWER: While playing a front row seat during the 2016 Election in the States, the truth is that Trump was focusing more on Mexico than Canada. The reason why was taxes. Manufacturing plants set up in Mexico, not Canada, which taxed even higher rates than the USA.

Even Stephen S. Poloz, Governor of the Bank of Canada, has set aside the issue of NAFTA claiming there remains uncertainty until he knows more about the nature of the risk, he will not focus of that topic.

The much greater risk to Canada will be the Trump Tax Reform. Canadians will also shift business to the States because it will save 50% in taxes. So, the tax reform is a far bigger issue than NAFTA

The Trump Tax Reform & Housing Boom


COMMENT: Martin,

It’s not just to make up for taxes lost because electric car use is up.

Rockwall, Texas has become one of the highest income per capita counties in Texas because of flight from income taxes states, especially California. Real estate prices have exploded because of growing business presence in the Dallas/Ft. Worth and flight from other states.

The business exodus and brain drain from California, coupled with the explosion of sanctuary cities there, have replaced tax paying citizens with illegals who neither pay taxes, nor get driver’s licenses, nor inspect nor register their vehicles.

The hunt for loose change continues to unfold.

BitCoin Crash


COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am very impressed. Socrates called the high in BitCoin and Thursday it wrote: “As of the close of Thu. Dec. 21, 2017: Our immediate trend model is bearish as are our momentum models so we should still expect a retest of support. Projected technical Resistance stands tomorrow at 1626085, 1626085, 1626085 and 1626085. Opening above this area will cause it to become support. ”

Even Socrates could correctly forecast this crash. Absolutely impressive!

PJK

REPLY: Yes. It caught the high rather nicely. Even the Global Market Watch calling for a temp high on the monthly level. This is monitoring thousands of markets. There is absolutely no human being who can do this and it would take an army of analysts just to write so many reports.

Are Democrats/Left-Wing Parties Really Marxists?


QUESTION: Why do you paint the left/Democrats as really being Marxist?

OP

ANSWER: Marx is the one that started the entire focus on the class warfare. Keep in mind that Marx began his position with socialism – not communism. It was the Commune Movement in Paris that persuaded Marx to adopt communism, which was the surrender of all property.

The reason I call the left Marxist is that this is where the class warfare begins. This philosophy did far more than simply invoke class warfare. It instigated the entire belief that government could manage the economy and eliminate the business cycle. John Maynard Keynes also followed that segment of Marx taking the position that government could control the business cycle. Therefore, both Marx and Keynes shared a common belief that the government could eliminate the business cycle. Towards the end of Keynes’ life, he relented that he had fought against the business cycle and Smith’s Invisible Hand, and came to realize he was wrong.

 

Here you have a video clip of Larry Summers being interviewed by Bloomberg. The question asked was simple. Why have economists been unable to ever predict a recession and manage the economy?

Then you have the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Arthur Burns, who was there for the end of Bretton Woods. He too stated bluntly that this entire philosophy that began with Marx advocating that government can manage the economy has failed.

The next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, also maintained the same position that the business cycle always won (Rediscovery of the Business Cycle). This “New Economics” was the Keynesian position that government could manage the economy eliminating the business cycle, which has utterly failed.

Therefore, anyone who says that this is not Marxism is really ignorant of where this entire line of economic thought began in modern times.

Tax Reform – Businesses Moving to Florida & Texas ASAP


TAX-REF (3)

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Did Donald Trump take your Tax Reform Proposal you submitted to Congress back in the nineties?

RK

ANSWER: I know a lot of people have been asking that since his original corporate tax rate was 15%. What I can say is that the notion to eliminate deductions for State income tax has been bantered around for a long time. I believe that was added to the reform and was not actually Trump’s plan initially out of the gate.

What you have to understand is that if California gets 13.5% and Alabama is 5%, the States have seen this as welfare for California and other high taxes States. Their residents get to deduct that money and it is really a welfare check for the State. To make it fair, there should be NO deduction for State income taxes. That will then force the local politicians to be respectful of other people’s money perhaps for the first time in history.

This is why I knew it would be time to move to Florida where there was no state income tax. I cannot tell you how many friends from New Jersey have already called and want to move their businesses to Florida asking how hard was it.

Trump Tax Reform Causing Panic in Europe & Asia


While the American press keeps pushing the class warfare along with the Democrats, outside the USA there is a major panic taking place on a grand scale. I have been called into meeting in Europe and even in Asia all deeply concerned about the loss of competition with the United States due to the Trump Tax Reform. Naturally, the American press would NEVER tell the truth how cutting the corporate tax rate will upset the powers that be around the globe.

A German study warns that its economy will be among the losers in the face of the Trump Tax Reform, which they warn will fuel the tax competition between America and Europe, but also the study leader, Christoph Spengel from the Economic Research Institute ZEW, came out and told Reuters:

“In addition, competition between EU members for US investment will increase; Germany is the loser.”

German Industry is already screaming. They want the Solidarity Surcharge terminated. That was put on for the unification and was never lifted, as is always the case. Without the surcharge, the German corporate rate would be 28.2%, still well above the EU average tax rate of 20.9%.

To finance the reunification of Germany a surcharge, the government taxed all taxpayers on their income tax withholding and corporation tax. The assessment basis was the income tax or corporation tax. This became known as the Solidarity Surcharge and is currently 5.5 % of the relevant assessment basis. Therefore, the effective corporate tax rate in Germany has been 33.7%. Of course, the Solidarity Surcharge is no longer is really needed to pay for the unification. But as always, once a tax is imposed, the government just can’t let it go.

The taxation levels in Germany were always much higher. When I was working on corporate restructuring helping companies select where to set up inside Europe for the birth of the Euro, I never placed any manufacture in Germany. I sent them to Britain for the net tax was 40% less. If they did not need skilled-manufacturing labor and just the best tax rate, I put those companies in Ireland. Never did I recommend anyone to move to Germany or France.

The advice I gave to those in a position to put the counter-reform in motion was straightforward. I advised them to ELIMINATE income tax completely. The political cover should be that they are adopting the original structure of the United States whereas only indirect taxation was permitted prior to 1913. A few mouths dropped. But they underst6ood the advice I was giving if they really wanted to compete.

66% of the Economy is Already Electronic & 99% of Money is Electronic


QUESTION: I loved your mention of how our money is not “printed”. You are THE ONLY financial expert to mention this. And you can’t understand our economy without understanding Electronic Money. I researched this 3 or four years ago and came up with, .003 physical currency vs the rest as Electronic Money. I later stumbled across an article on the same subject by an economics professor who put the ratio at .0003 physical. SO, who/where/how much/ and by who’s authority is E money created? E money is how the economy is propped up, and the amount is in TRILLIONS UPON TRILLIONS.

ANSWER: That is about correct. However, it is actually much worse. About 40% of the value of the paper currency of the United States circulates outside the USA. In fact, about 40% of the debt is also held outside the USA.

Moreover, the bulk of the money is not just electronic already, but people failed to understand the change in the debt structure. Why do governments even borrow money when they have NO INTENTION of ever paying anything back? Once upon a time, before 1971 under Bretton Woods, it was illegal to borrow against government bonds. That was when the theory emerged that it was LESS INFLATIONARY to borrow than to print. The bonds were not part of the money supply. However, post-1971, you could borrow freely against government bonds. It no longer made any difference to print v borrow.

Today, on average, 50%+ of the national debts of most countries is accumulative interest payments. When Federal paper money began, it was really circulating bearer bonds in the United States. In fact, the reverse of the notes displayed the interest you would earn holding that currency.

When the government switched to DEMAND notes, dropping all interest payments, this is when the dollar was fondly referred to as a “Greenback” meaning there was nothing but green ink on the reverse side and no table of interest payments.

This is when the dollar became paper money and no longer was actually a circulating form of a bearer bond. The government paid interest to encourage people to accept the paper currency and it was introduced during the Civil War to pay for the costs.

All this hype about BitCoin and electronic money is a bit strange since most money is electronic. The only distinction that BitCoin actually has is its claim as an alternative form of money separate from legal tender, which means the government will accept that currency in payment of fines or taxes.

The bulk of all purchasing transactions are by plastic cards which are comprised of 66% of all in-person sales, with nearly half of them, or 31% are made with debit cards. Welcome to the electronic currency economy. It’s here already.

Trump Tax Reform Passes – This Will be The Greatest Boost to Small Business in more than 30 years


The House just passed the tax bill in a final vote after a procedural hiccup relegated the bill back to the floor for a second vote. The Senate passed the bill early Wednesday morning along party lines. The tax bill is on its way to President Trump’s desk now, slating the tax overhaul package to take effect in the new year. This sets up the GOP for its first major legislative win in Trump’s first year as president. They never accomplished anything before even when they had the power.