What is a Superposition Event


Socrates wrote about a Rare Superposition Event took place last week in the Dow. They can take place at all levels of time and can be on a closing basis or on an intraday basis. This is the 43rd such event on the weekly level in the Dow since 1914. You can read more about them in our Research section.

The IMF’s SDR & Monetary Reform – Another Crazy Idea?


QUESTION: Hi Martin,
I am a long time reader of your blog and a big fan of the tools that you have developed for investors. Thanks for all that you do and I wanted to reach out and ask about your opinion of the thesis that ——-  outlines for the IMF implementing SDRs as world money during the next downturn? This type of scenario seems to make sense considering the current balance sheets of central banks and the current lack of demand for EU debt.
Nicky

ANSWER: I was in a discussion about that back in the 1980s (see the response from the White House rejecting SDRs). That was a day before the IMF became so corrupt. That was rejected countless times. The entire problem still stems from the cross-currency borrowing by nations. Even if the emerging markets borrowed in SDRs instead of US dollars, it really would not alter the world money system nor prevent a crash at the hand of a Sovereign Debt Crisis. What it would do is simply relieve the dollar marginally. The problem would emerge on how do you manage such a system. As long as governments issue debt, then once they issue that debt in ANY currency other than their own, RISK enters the game.

Even if we switched the reserve currency from the dollar to the SDR, the ONLY way to enforce it would be to restrict currency. For example, I could issue a bond in Japanese yen for years and sell it to you in Canada without it being approved by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. China still has currency controls where its people have to ask permission to send money out of the country. The only way to enforce an EXCLUSIVE SDR reserve currency would be for all debt to be denominated in SDRs. However, then every country would still have the risk of their currency fluctuating against the SDR.

The only way to practically reduce the risk is to prohibit governments from issuing debt in any currency but their own. That introduces yet another problem. Many pensions bought emerging market debt to get the higher yield, but they did so because they issued that debt in dollars to attract foreign buyers. As the dollar rises and rates rise, the value of emerging market debt declines and the risk of default rises as the US dollar rallies.

So you see, if we are really talking about revising the world monetary system, it is going to be far more complicated than simply replacing the dollar with SDR, gold, or clamshells as they issued during currency crisis of 1933.

Trade Wars & Rising Interest Rates – The Top Concerns of Fund Managers


The interesting fact is that the majority of fund managers today have reduced their equity allocation to their lowest level since November 2016 according to Reuters. The reason for this is their focus of trade and their assumption that the Great Depression was caused by a PROTECTIONISM. According to yet a recent monthly report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) where they conducted a survey of fund managers, the majority, some 60%, now fear a trade war. Clearly, the biggest concern out there is a trade war poses the greatest risk to the stock market. Another 19% fear excessively higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve. These two perceptions are the dominant reason we see consolidation.

However, our computer forecasted the consolidation for 2018 at the start of the year. This has sparked a number of emails asking how was it possible for the computer to forecast consolidation before the fundamentals? What I have noticed over the years in working with this model has been that trends will last ONLY for a specific amount of time. Like being cold all winter and suddenly the sun shines with Spring, we call it “Spring Fever” and everyone runs out at starts doing things when the weather changes. We respond similarly to cycles in markets. They will last only for so long and we get tired. It is NOT that specific fundamental that comes into play and causes the consolidation. Instead, the market trend shifts and people begin to look for explanations to explain it.

I have shown charts that demonstrate that rising interest rates are a market myth. The stock market has risen with higher rates and when the market crashes, demand-side economic means they lower rates trying to “stimulate”  demand under Keynesianism which has never worked. The ECB has kept rates so low for nearly 10 years and they have destroyed the European bond market as reduced Europe to an economy that is ranked even below China. And as far a trade is concerned, I have shown that Trade Tariffs were a response to the currency and the collapse in agriculture due to the invention of tractors and electricity during the early 20th century. Like the internet today is displacing jobs, electricity reduced the jobs in the manufacture and the combustion engine expanded to tractors reducing employment in agriculture from 40% of the civil workforce to 3% by 1980.

Consequently, the computer is forecasting the trend. People try to explain the change in trend and fit the fundamentals to try to explain what took place. I have written before that the book I had to read in school on the Great Crash by Gailbraith, never mention the Sovereign debt crisis of 1931 because he was a socialist who wanted to blame corporations EXCLUSIVELY. Others actually claimed that Hoover embraced the rise of Nazis in Germany because he wanted to trade and ignored Russia. Hitler came to power in 1933 and Hoover lost the election in 1932. They will even alter timelines to support a predetermined conclusion.

The trend changes due to cycles for we can only endure a trend for so long before we just want a change as we do in politics. The cycles are not altered by the fundamentals. Commentators fit the fundamentals to explain the cycle. The sharp decline in asset allocation to equities has not been met with a collapse in market prices. This is a very interesting development for the majority NEVER manages to sell the high.

Russia Dumps US Bonds – Is it Politics or Yield?


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It appears that Putin also follows your model. He has been selling all debt significantly for it seems he is listening to you forecast that interest rates will rise sharply so get out of government bonds. Do you see his selling because of rate or politics as some are trying to say?

Thank you

KE

 

ANSWER: Putin is selling off debt very rapidly because of interest rates. The political bashing of Russia has been going on since the 2016 presidential election. It has contributed somewhat to the decision to sell, but honestly, if it were only political, then they would have sold their holdings by the end of 2016. The spin will be political, but the trend toward higher rates is the real driving force. Many countries/corporate/institutions that our clients, we have been advising to shorten maturity.

The crisis is building in debt rapidly. Even the ECB came out and said it would stop its bond-buying program and only a fool would expect rates to stay the same. I seriously doubt, based on my sources, that the ECB can stop buying bonds without a major global crisis. Draghi will keep buying until he is out the door come October 2019. I seriously question if Draghi will be able to hold it together beyond the First Quarter 2019.

Russia sold nearly all of its US Treasury holdings in May. It was an impressive sale reducing their holdings to almost zero in just two months. According to our sources, the Russian government reduced its US bond holdings from $ 96 billion to $ 48.7 billion during April and then down to $14.9 billion by the end of May. At the end of 2017, Russian holding of US debt stood at about $102.2 billion. That was not actually huge. They were in the top 33 countries holding US debt.  They are certainly no longer in that list at all. The Russian sales pushed the yield slightly higher to 3.11%.

Interest Rates Lock & Load or Stay Nimble?


QUESTION:  Hi Marty,
I continue to read your blog and if I understand correctly, interest rates are going up.
My question is, can one profit from higher interest rates such as buying CD or bank stocks like Wells Fargo?

ANSWER: The one thing you do not want to do is buy CD with maturity. As rates go higher, you will be locked in and unable to take advantage of the rising rates. Bank stocks will not benefit from higher rates in general. So that is not a valid reason to buy bank stocks. The safest thing would be to buy US TBills or agency paper no more out than 90 days and keep the cash rolling in that area until we reach a point when the rates are peaking. Toward the end, the yield curve will invert so that means the short-term rates will exceed long-term when confidence is shaken.

In an upward cycle for interest rates, never lock & load – always stay nimble.