Tag Archives: Dust Bowl

Sep 12 2022

De-Energization Plans in California – Lights Out


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Sep 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

California sent out an emergency public notification to warn residents that the power grid was under a strain. Since people are likely unwilling to turn off their power during the summer heat, California is concocting “de-energization” plans. Simply put, California plans to temporarily turn off the power grid in the name of public safety.

This is the same state that plans to eliminate gas-powered cars yet does not have the capability to maintain the current electrical grid. Companies are already creating advice for residents to “get ready for a PSPS” (Public Safety Power Shutoff). PG&E warned that some residents may be without power for “several days.” Their advice seems quite dystopian. Those who will DIE without power due to medical conditions may receive an exemption to power their medical devices.

Several days without electricity will cripple small businesses, and large businesses will also suffer. Those who may need but do not qualify for an exemption could die. They are recommending that people use camping stoves and outdoor charcoal grills to cook, but that is not an option for many. The elderly are especially vulnerable without power. Those without power banks will be unable to charge their phones and will be isolated from the world. Kids will be unable to attend school. They are asking people to power their EVs, but you can only go so far on one charge. It will come as no surprise if they shut off electricity for the poorest areas first.

Perhaps we could have funded this project instead of sending over $120 billion to Ukraine. California is still pushing to end the use of fossil fuels but look at the situation they are in currently.

Sep 11 2022

Massive Increases in U.S Natural Gas Exports are Driving Up U.S. Energy Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022

It is good to see at least one energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, speaking commonsense.  In an article by Clark Williams-Derry for Barron Magazine [SEE HERE], the author accurately outlines how significant U.S. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports are driving up prices for American consumers.

The author accurately refutes the notion that exports do not drive-up domestic prices, by walking through the example of how natural gas prices dropped for U.S. consumers when the liquefied natural gas plant in Quintana, Texas [Freeport LNG] was temporarily shut down, blocking a portion of the export capacity.  However, that facility is about to come back on-line and with increased exports from other facilities domestic U.S. prices have already doubled.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Association (IEA), U.S. storage of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 12% below the five-year average (LINK).  Additionally, the IEA is expecting the U.S. to export 11.7 billion cubic feet of LNG per day during the fourth quarter of 2022 — up 17% from the third quarter. The destination of that export is Europe.

Consider that 43% of U.S. households use LNG for home heating, and power suppliers use LNG to create electricity.  With the massive 2022 exports of LNG to Europe (+17% in fourth quarter alone), that means lower domestic supplies and increased prices here in the United States for electricity and home heating.  We are seeing and feeling these massive price increases right now.

Barrons – […]  If you need more evidence of the impact of natural gas exports on prices, just compare supply and demand fundamentals for the year leading up to February 2020 (the last pre-pandemic month) versus the year leading up to this May (the most recent month with full federal data). Annualized production rose over the period, while domestic consumption remained roughly flat. Yet LNG exports almost doubled—a surge that tightened U.S. gas markets and doubled the price that U.S. consumers pay for the fuel. 

The growth of global demand for U.S. LNG can be tied to many market forces, including the shortfalls in Europe due to Russia’s manipulation of European Union gas markets. Sustained high demand in wealthy Asian nations has contributed to export growth as well. And so has the U.S. gas industry’s dogged determination to ship its wares to the highest bidder, foreign or domestic. 

Russia’s role has been particularly critical in the rise of global LNG demand. As Russia choked off gas shipments to Europe, EU buyers have turned to global LNG markets to make up the shortfall. Global LNG prices rose in response, and U.S. LNG companies ramped up output, shipping more cargoes to Europe. But Russia responded by further clamping down on gas supplies to the EU—a vicious circle that has hurt Europe’s economy even more severely than it has harmed America’s.

There’s little sign that U.S. gas prices will ease in the coming years. Freeport’s demand will be back online soon enough, and there are three other massive LNG export projects under construction, with more than a dozen of others waiting for financing.

[…] Curiously, federal regulators have consistently found that the gas export projects are in the public interest—meaning they were in the economic interest of LNG companies and gas drillers. But now, exports are creating sky-high costs for U.S. consumers, and drillers are reluctant to boost gas output lest prices fall back to earth. So, it’s high time to consider whether soaring U.S. LNG exports are actually in America’s interest—or if, instead, runaway LNG exports are fueling energy inflation and undermining the nation’s economic competitiveness. (read more)

Not only are U.S. taxpayers directly paying for the majority of costs in Ukraine, but we are also subsidizing the European Union by exporting LNG and driving up the price for energy here at home.

We the taxpayers are directly paying Ukraine, and indirectly paying Europe to maintain gas sanctions against Russia.  As a result, we the taxpayers are also paying higher prices here at home.  This is the reality of the current exfiltration of wealth as created by the Biden administration.

FUBAR

Sep 11 2022

U.K Energy Reaches Crisis Point, Britain Announces New Oil and Gas Leases and Lifts Moratorium on Fracking


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 

There is a particular historical irony in the timing.  On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.

Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.

The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel.  The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.

Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.

The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades.  The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion.  The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe.  It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Britain’s move to green-light dozens of new oil and gas fields will leave investors and banks with a tough PR job as Britain struggles to shore up its energy security whilst sticking to its climate commitments.

Starting new oil and gas projects runs counter to the world’s shift away from fossil fuels in the fight against global warming and a commitment at last November’s U.N. climate talks to phase down their use.

Yet runaway inflation amid conflict in Ukraine has forced the hand of new British prime minister Liz Truss as Russian President Putin seeks to use energy as a weapon this winter.

Britain will launch a new round of oil and gas licensing next week with more than 100 licenses issued, part of a wider package of measures to tackle the energy crisis announced by Truss on Thursday.

And Britain’s not alone in reassessing its energy strategy. Germany, for example, has been forced to turn back to even dirtier thermal coal to help fuel its power plants and keep the lights on, hampering short-term efforts to rein in climate-damaging carbon emissions.

But for energy companies and the investors, bankers and insurers that finance them, new investment in fossil fuels also presents a challenge given many have made their own pledges to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

“This will absolutely hinder companies’ … ability to hit their climate targets,” said Pietro Bertazzi, global director of policy engagement and external affairs at non-profit environmental disclosure platform CDP. (read more)

This is the first crack in the western alliance and the ‘climate change’ agenda of the World Economic Forum as it relates to energy policy and ultimately control over human life within the alliance.

The war in Ukraine was being used as a justification to explain the consequences of European energy policy, particularly rapidly increasing costs for energy and food, but the war in Ukraine was not the cause.  The true root cause of the exploding inflation and economic mess was the Build Back Better agenda, and the series of policies dictated from within it, that each nation willingly accepted.

Sep 10 2022

Professor Alan Dershowitz Recommends a Retired Federal Judge Should Hold Special Master Appointment in Mar-a-Lago Raid Document Review


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 9, 2022

September 9, 2022 | Sundance | 1 Comment

The deadline for both the Trump Team and DOJ-NSD Team to submit their recommendations for a special master to review the Mar-a-Lago documents is tonight at midnight.

During an interview presented by Newsmax, Harvard Professor Emeritus and legal scholar Alan Dershowitz gives his impression on the appointment itself as well as the background issues surrounding the documents at the heart of the conflict.

Mr. Dershowitz recommends that a former federal judge would be the best candidate for the role of special master and supports the opinion with his viewpoint. WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=OaEAp4to3_0%3Ffeature%3Doembed

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Sep 9 2022

Electric Air Taxis Coming Soon


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology Re-Posted Sep 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Technological advancements are quite an amazing achievement. Although I never thought I’d see them in my lifetime, electric air taxis may become commonplace in the not-so-distant future. United Airlines announced that they are investing in air taxis from Eve Air Mobility and have already purchased 200 four-seat electric aircrafts. Eve, which was listed on the NYSE in May, will receive an additional $15 million investment from United. Flying taxis or eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles) are designed for short commuter trips.

United also purchased 100 electric aircrafts from Archer Aviation. They expect the first shipments to arrive in 2026. Airlines Ventures President Michael Leskinen projects that a one-way trip to the airport would cost between $100 to $150, but these air taxis only have a range of 60 miles. This is a workaround to abide by the coming zero carbon emission laws but certainly will not be a replacement for affordable public transportation that many in the working class rely on.

Much is unknown about this new technology. Eve plans to hold a simulation later in the week in Chicago to study how eVTOLs will function in an urban environment. It is always refreshing to see technological advancement as innovation paves the way for opportunity.

Sep 8 2022

EU Commission Announces 5 Point Plan for Energy Crisis, Including Increased Imports of U.S. Natural Gas Driving Up Prices for U.S. Consumers


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 7, 2022 | Sundance 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Association (IEA), U.S. storage of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 12% below the five-year average (LINK).  Additionally, the IEA is expecting the U.S. to export 11.7 billion cubic feet of LNG per day during the fourth quarter of 2022 — up 17% from the third quarter. The destination of that export is Europe.

Consider that 43% of U.S. households use LNG for home heating, and power suppliers use LNG to create electricity.  With the massive 2022 exports of LNG to Europe (+17% in fourth quarter alone), that means lower domestic supplies and increased prices here in the United States for electricity and home heating.  We are seeing and feeling these massive price increases right now. As a result, consider this reality….

Not only are U.S. taxpayers directly paying for the majority of costs in Ukraine, but we are also subsidizing the European Union by exporting LNG and driving up the price here at home.

We are directly paying Ukraine, and indirectly paying Europe to maintain gas sanctions against Russia.  This is the reality of the current situation as created by the Biden administration.

Now, consider this.  The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels today, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said.  The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.

Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives include:

(1) Conservation of electricity through forced and mandated cuts in electricity use.  The amount of the cut has yet to be determined but reducing demand through forced curtailment of electricity use is the first approach.  [Insert California as an example here in the United States.]

(2) A cap on the profit generated by energy suppliers who use renewable energy like wind and solar.  The renewable industry has lower costs, yet they are profiting from the top line increase in delivered electricity.  The EU commissar is proposing to confiscate the profits of Green Energy suppliers, direct the funds to the member states and then use those funds to subsidize the energy costs of poorer EU citizens.

(3) A cap on the profits generated by traditional fossil fuel energy suppliers (oil, coal, nuclear, gas electricity generation), and the diversion of those profits following the same formula as above.

(4) Banking support and financial liquidity for smaller regional energy providers who are having short term financial issues as they must pay massive amounts of money for the raw material needed to generate electricity.  Essentially, the cost of coal, oil and LNG has skyrocketed, and there is a lag between the time they energy company must pay for the fuel source and the time the customer pays the electricity bill.   The inbound fuel costs (new) are so extreme the inbound payments for prior electricity (old) are not covering the cost of the new supplier purchase.

(5) A price cap on Russian natural gas.  To accompany the increased import of Norwegian and U.S. gas.  This sounds like a bizarro effort to manipulate the market which could backfire.  If Russian gas is cheaper than EU market gas, the smart energy providers will purchase the Russian gas.

Not a single word about increasing the supply of any traditional energy resource.  These ideologues are so committed to the cult of climate change and renewable energy, they are intent on destroying the economy in order to lower demand to the level of their windmills and solar farms.  This is madness, absolute madness.

Here’s the presser:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=rV6X79U9J3o%3Ffeature%3Doembed

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Sep 8 2022

German Minister of Economics, Robert Habeck, Under Fire as Energy Driven Reality of Economic Collapse Starts Sinking In


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 7, 2022 | Sundance

German Minister of Economics Robert Habeck is under fire after his comments during an interview with an ARD broadcaster on Tuesday evening.

The conversation surrounded the astronomical rise in the price of energy taking all the income away from people who would purchase other goods and services. As Germans no longer can afford purchases, the stores and businesses can no longer operate.  Minister Habeck was asked if that means a wave of bankruptcies and business closures are forecast.

Mr. Habeck responded that businesses can stop operating, but that doesn’t mean they will go insolvent.  Just because the business loses most or all of their revenue, doesn’t mean they will go bankrupt.  That doesn’t make sense, Minister Habeck was pressed to apply commonsense. If businesses close to save money, workers are not employed. If workers are not employed people do not earn income.  If people do not earn income, the economy worsens.

Habeck had no response other than an economically detached “Green Party” perspective that businesses will not go bankrupt just because they are not operating. However, his facial expressions reflect that he knows what comes next, total economic collapse. WATCH: 

https://youtube.com/watch?v=x8bGPxZfIdQ%3Ffeature%3Doembed

(Reuters) – German Economy Minister Robert Habeck faced a backlash on Wednesday for saying he could imagine parts of the economy stopping production due to rising energy prices that German firms say are threatening their existence.

Asked whether he expected a wave of insolvencies at the end of this winter due to companies’ rising energy bills, Habeck said “No, I don’t. I can imagine that certain industries will simply stop producing for the time being.”

The answer, in an interview with ARD broadcaster on Tuesday evening, sparked criticism of the minister in charge of Europe’s biggest economy, with mass-selling Bild newspaper saying Habeck “has no idea about the economy.”

Friedrich Merz, the conservative opposition leader, also took the opportunity to criticize Habeck, Germany’s second most popular politician, saying he and his ruling coalition were not taking energy and economy questions seriously.

“One could see how helpless Mr. Habeck you are with these questions last night on German television,” Merz told the lower house of parliament.

Habeck’s comments come as economists and industry groups warn that rising energy prices are a growing risk for Germany’s medium and small-sized businesses, which form the backbone of the economy.  (read more)

Things are about to get very spicy in Germany as the reality of the unsustainable Build Back Better agenda starts to sink in.  The intellectual disconnect from an economic minister to the consequences of an energy policy removing trillions of dollars from the economy is stunning.

Sep 7 2022

Two More EU Aluminum Smelters Going Offline Due to Excessive Energy Costs, Aluminum Shortages Predicted


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance 

On one hand losing the ability to manufacture aluminum is bad news for any economic activity that requires the use of aluminum.  However, on the other hand, this politically guided ‘new world’ we are going toward doesn’t need aluminum, because you cannot eat it.

Predictably 2023 is going to be the beginning of several ‘Build Back Better’ decades where the ownership of material things disappears.  When your wages are focused on sustaining yourself with housing, food and energy, all of those other purchases become mere indulgences.

Sustainable life in equity with the needs of the planet, means returning to the era when you received an orange or a piece of chocolate as a Christmas gift, and you are thankful. Cars, appliances, phones or other types of luxury durable goods are indulgences which become out of reach for the worker class.  Thus, removing smelters, iron works, factories and other heavy industrial machines only makes sense.

As meager wage earnings are focused on purchases to sustain life, there is little room for indulgences.  As the World Economic Forum has stated, we will own nothing and we will be happy.  Happiness experiences will be provided and the virtual metaverse will fill our needs.

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) – Two more European aluminium smelters are powering down as the region’s energy crisis shows no signs of abating.

Slovenia’s Talum will reduce output to just a fifth of capacity and Alcoa (AA.N) will curtail one line at its Lista plant in Norway.

Close to 1 million tonnes of European primary aluminum capacity is now offline and more may follow as a notoriously power-hungry sector struggles to cope with soaring energy costs.  (read more)

Again, I return to the imagery surrounding our foundational questions, and hopefully things are starting to make sense.

Sep 7 2022

California Governor Reminds All Correct Thinking Citizens to Remain Committed to Scarce Energy Resource Allocation


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance

Comrade Citizens, it is important we stop thinking wrong thoughts about increasing the supply of abundant, natural energy resources as a tool to offset the sustainability of human life which might include selfish pursuits of happiness.  Correct thinking citizens view themselves as parasites upon our great planet, especially in California.

To affirm equity needs of our collective society as the electricity resource becomes increasingly scarce, California Governor Gavin Newsom reminds everyone to change their habit for electricity use and embrace the new era of scarcity.  Habits must be changed comrade citizens if we are to collectively work toward our communal energy goals and climate change aspirations.

As dear leader clearly expresses in his plea for voluntary compliance, we can get through this transition and embrace the new scarcity mindset if we just accept our responsibility to the collective need of a better society, a place where the rules will always be in our interests.  WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=c-cm_IE_rDc%3Ffeature%3Doembed

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Yes, we can comrades.  Yes, we can.

Sep 7 2022

Wow, Europe Household Electric Bills Estimated to Jump by $2 Trillion Next Year, That’s 12% of Their GDP


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance

What is predicted to happen in Europe is just stunning, literally stunning.

♦Context – According to official data from the World Bank, the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Union was just over $17 trillion US dollars in 2021. That is the last calculated measure.  The combined GDP value of European Union represents roughly 12.78 percent of the world economy.

According to analysts for Goldman Sachs, the current energy crisis in Europe has increased electricity prices at a rate that is increasing almost daily.  Within the data it is now estimated that households within the EU will pay an additional $2 trillion for electricity in the next year.

Put that $2 trillion into context with their GDP, and that scale of energy cost would be wiping out 12% of the purchasing strength within the total EU economy.  Forget about buying anything else, if this analysis is correct Europeans will be buying food and energy, nothing else.

If you consider what that means, it is bordering on full economic collapse of western Europe.

What is being described above is what we posited when we outlined the impact of the “Energy Economy” {Go Deep}.  When you suck 12% of the purchasing power out of an economic engine simply to maintain the status of current energy use, everything else starts to collapse.

Also keep in mind we are only talking about the direct impact of $2 trillion in electricity cost.  The downstream consequence is far greater because everything created, produced, or manufactured, including food, is dependent on electricity – which will drive the final cost to produce of all those products even higher.

The damage is almost unimaginable in scale.

[Fortune] – European households should brace for an expensive winter owing to the continent’s deepening energy crisis that will likely send electricity and heating bills soaring.

Energy affordability in Europe is reaching a “tipping point” that could peak next year, with total spending on bills across the continent growing by 2 trillion euros ($2 trillion), a Goldman Sachs research team, led by Alberto Gandolfi and Mafalda Pombeiro, said in a note published Sunday.

Many European households are already feeling the bite of a steadily worsening energy crisis, brought on by Russian natural gas producers intermittently pausing flows along the critical Nord Stream pipeline following Western sanctions this year.

Energy bills at some restaurants and coffee shops have already more than tripled this year, but with threats looming that natural gas supply from Russia could become even tighter as the Ukraine War rages on, analysts warn that Europe’s coming struggles are set to rival some of the worst energy crises on record.

“The market continues to underestimate the depth, the breadth, and the structural repercussions of the crisis,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. “We believe these will be even deeper than the 1970s oil crisis.” (read more)

The economic contagion will not be isolated to Europe.

The impacts to the social fabric are also almost unquantifiable in scale.

Example: What happens to migration patterns when economic migrants are now considered a threat to scarce resources?

While the US is not quite in the same level of energy desperation, what we were discussing last week is an example of the problem we too may face.

Let’s say you are an average USA Main Street household with an income around $100,000/yr, and you now face an increase in electricity rates from $300 to $500 due to Joe Biden’s new national energy policy known as the Green New Deal.  That’s $200 more per month for this initial economic/energy “transition” moment.

That extra $200/month equates to $2,400 per year.

That $2,400 per year is static economic activity.  Meaning nothing additional was created, and nothing additional was generated.  The captured $2,400 is simply an increase in the price of a preexisting expense.

Take that expense and expand it to your community of 100 friends and family households.  The $2,400 now becomes $240,000 in cost that doesn’t generate anything.  $240,000 is removed from the community economy.  $240,000 is no longer available for purchasing other goods or services within this community of 100 households.

The economic purchasing power of the 100-household community is reduced by $240,000 per year.

Take that expense and expand it to your county of 10,000 households.  Now you are reducing the county economic activity by $24 million.  In this county of 10,000 households, $24 million in economic transactions have been wiped out.  Meals at restaurants, purchases of goods and services, or any other spending of the $24 million within the county of 10,000 households (approximately 25,000 residents) has been lost.

Now expand that expense to a larger county, quantified as a mid-size county, of 50,000 households.  The mid-sized county has lost $120 million in household economic activity, simply to sustain the status quo on electricity rates.  Nothing extra has been generated. $120 million is lost.  The activity within the county of 50,000 households shrinks by $120 million.

Expand that expense to a large county of 100,000 households, and the lost economic activity is $240 million.

Expand that expense to a small state of 1 million households (2.5 million residents), and the lost economic activity is $2.4 billion.

Expand that expense to a state with 5 million households (approximately 12 million residents) and the economic cost is $12 billion in lost economic activity unrelated to the expense of maintaining the status-quo on electricity use.   This state loses $12 billion in purchases of goods and services, just to retain current energy use.

These examples only touch on household expenses.  The community, county and state business expenses for offices, supermarkets, stores, etc. are in addition to the households quoted.

Meanwhile the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the community, county and state, remains static because the GDP is calculated on the total value of goods and services generated in dollar terms.  The appearance of a static GDP is artificial.  In real Main Street terms, $12 billion in economic activity is lost, but the price or increased value of electricity hides the drop created by the absence of goods and services purchased.

Fewer goods and services are purchased and consumed.  However, statistically the inflated price of electricity gives the illusion of a status quo economy.

Now expand that perspective to a national level and you can see our current economic condition.

All of this is being done under the justification of “climate change.”

Previously I would have said this level of economic impact in Europe would lead to a total revolt against the government.  However, with the backdrop of the recent COVID lockdowns and government control mechanisms in mind, and looking at the citizen compliance that took place in response to those government mandates, it is now more likely the citizens in Europe will simply bow to the energy control mechanisms of the governing authority.

It’s almost as if the COVID compliance effort was the test…