Biden Begs OPEC+ to Delay Vote Until After Midterms


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Oct 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Joe Biden is playing dirty before the midterm elections by urging Saudi Arabia to delay the OPEC+ oil vote until December. The Saudis, who unofficially run OPEC+, do not respect Joe. OPEC+ voted on October 5 to cut oil production despite Joe’s desperate pleas. In a desperate attempt to avoid further embarrassment, Biden asked them to delay the next vote.

The Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia replied with a letter rejecting Biden’s requests. The kingdom said they declined Biden’s request in October for purely financial reasons. They reject the idea that they declined on behalf of Russia and said that they are not interfering in international conflicts. Worse, they believe that Biden is promoting the idea that Saudi Arabia is against the United States. In reality, they want to make money and be left alone. Oil is what keeps their kingdom afloat. The letter confirms their relationship with the United States is “strategic” as a trading partner and nothing more.

As for pushing back the next vote, that is not in Saudi Arabia’s interest. They explained that “economic analyses indicate that postponing the OPEC+ decision for a month, according to what has been suggested, would have had negative economic consequences.”

White House officials have confirmed Joe’s election interference. “We presented Saudi Arabia with analysis to show that there was no market basis to cut production targets, and that they could easily wait for the next OPEC meeting to see how things developed,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a statement. Yet, the White House swears this decision has nothing to do with the midterms.

This sounds like election interference to me.

U.K Energy Reaches Crisis Point, Britain Announces New Oil and Gas Leases and Lifts Moratorium on Fracking


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 

There is a particular historical irony in the timing.  On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.

Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.

The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel.  The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.

Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.

The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades.  The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion.  The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe.  It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Britain’s move to green-light dozens of new oil and gas fields will leave investors and banks with a tough PR job as Britain struggles to shore up its energy security whilst sticking to its climate commitments.

Starting new oil and gas projects runs counter to the world’s shift away from fossil fuels in the fight against global warming and a commitment at last November’s U.N. climate talks to phase down their use.

Yet runaway inflation amid conflict in Ukraine has forced the hand of new British prime minister Liz Truss as Russian President Putin seeks to use energy as a weapon this winter.

Britain will launch a new round of oil and gas licensing next week with more than 100 licenses issued, part of a wider package of measures to tackle the energy crisis announced by Truss on Thursday.

And Britain’s not alone in reassessing its energy strategy. Germany, for example, has been forced to turn back to even dirtier thermal coal to help fuel its power plants and keep the lights on, hampering short-term efforts to rein in climate-damaging carbon emissions.

But for energy companies and the investors, bankers and insurers that finance them, new investment in fossil fuels also presents a challenge given many have made their own pledges to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

“This will absolutely hinder companies’ … ability to hit their climate targets,” said Pietro Bertazzi, global director of policy engagement and external affairs at non-profit environmental disclosure platform CDP. (read more)

This is the first crack in the western alliance and the ‘climate change’ agenda of the World Economic Forum as it relates to energy policy and ultimately control over human life within the alliance.

The war in Ukraine was being used as a justification to explain the consequences of European energy policy, particularly rapidly increasing costs for energy and food, but the war in Ukraine was not the cause.  The true root cause of the exploding inflation and economic mess was the Build Back Better agenda, and the series of policies dictated from within it, that each nation willingly accepted.

Wow, Europe Household Electric Bills Estimated to Jump by $2 Trillion Next Year, That’s 12% of Their GDP


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance

What is predicted to happen in Europe is just stunning, literally stunning.

♦Context – According to official data from the World Bank, the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Union was just over $17 trillion US dollars in 2021. That is the last calculated measure.  The combined GDP value of European Union represents roughly 12.78 percent of the world economy.

According to analysts for Goldman Sachs, the current energy crisis in Europe has increased electricity prices at a rate that is increasing almost daily.  Within the data it is now estimated that households within the EU will pay an additional $2 trillion for electricity in the next year.

Put that $2 trillion into context with their GDP, and that scale of energy cost would be wiping out 12% of the purchasing strength within the total EU economy.  Forget about buying anything else, if this analysis is correct Europeans will be buying food and energy, nothing else.

If you consider what that means, it is bordering on full economic collapse of western Europe.

What is being described above is what we posited when we outlined the impact of the “Energy Economy” {Go Deep}.  When you suck 12% of the purchasing power out of an economic engine simply to maintain the status of current energy use, everything else starts to collapse.

Also keep in mind we are only talking about the direct impact of $2 trillion in electricity cost.  The downstream consequence is far greater because everything created, produced, or manufactured, including food, is dependent on electricity – which will drive the final cost to produce of all those products even higher.

The damage is almost unimaginable in scale.

[Fortune] – European households should brace for an expensive winter owing to the continent’s deepening energy crisis that will likely send electricity and heating bills soaring.

Energy affordability in Europe is reaching a “tipping point” that could peak next year, with total spending on bills across the continent growing by 2 trillion euros ($2 trillion), a Goldman Sachs research team, led by Alberto Gandolfi and Mafalda Pombeiro, said in a note published Sunday.

Many European households are already feeling the bite of a steadily worsening energy crisis, brought on by Russian natural gas producers intermittently pausing flows along the critical Nord Stream pipeline following Western sanctions this year.

Energy bills at some restaurants and coffee shops have already more than tripled this year, but with threats looming that natural gas supply from Russia could become even tighter as the Ukraine War rages on, analysts warn that Europe’s coming struggles are set to rival some of the worst energy crises on record.

“The market continues to underestimate the depth, the breadth, and the structural repercussions of the crisis,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. “We believe these will be even deeper than the 1970s oil crisis.” (read more)

The economic contagion will not be isolated to Europe.

The impacts to the social fabric are also almost unquantifiable in scale.

Example: What happens to migration patterns when economic migrants are now considered a threat to scarce resources?

While the US is not quite in the same level of energy desperation, what we were discussing last week is an example of the problem we too may face.

Let’s say you are an average USA Main Street household with an income around $100,000/yr, and you now face an increase in electricity rates from $300 to $500 due to Joe Biden’s new national energy policy known as the Green New Deal.  That’s $200 more per month for this initial economic/energy “transition” moment.

That extra $200/month equates to $2,400 per year.

That $2,400 per year is static economic activity.  Meaning nothing additional was created, and nothing additional was generated.  The captured $2,400 is simply an increase in the price of a preexisting expense.

Take that expense and expand it to your community of 100 friends and family households.  The $2,400 now becomes $240,000 in cost that doesn’t generate anything.  $240,000 is removed from the community economy.  $240,000 is no longer available for purchasing other goods or services within this community of 100 households.

The economic purchasing power of the 100-household community is reduced by $240,000 per year.

Take that expense and expand it to your county of 10,000 households.  Now you are reducing the county economic activity by $24 million.  In this county of 10,000 households, $24 million in economic transactions have been wiped out.  Meals at restaurants, purchases of goods and services, or any other spending of the $24 million within the county of 10,000 households (approximately 25,000 residents) has been lost.

Now expand that expense to a larger county, quantified as a mid-size county, of 50,000 households.  The mid-sized county has lost $120 million in household economic activity, simply to sustain the status quo on electricity rates.  Nothing extra has been generated. $120 million is lost.  The activity within the county of 50,000 households shrinks by $120 million.

Expand that expense to a large county of 100,000 households, and the lost economic activity is $240 million.

Expand that expense to a small state of 1 million households (2.5 million residents), and the lost economic activity is $2.4 billion.

Expand that expense to a state with 5 million households (approximately 12 million residents) and the economic cost is $12 billion in lost economic activity unrelated to the expense of maintaining the status-quo on electricity use.   This state loses $12 billion in purchases of goods and services, just to retain current energy use.

These examples only touch on household expenses.  The community, county and state business expenses for offices, supermarkets, stores, etc. are in addition to the households quoted.

Meanwhile the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the community, county and state, remains static because the GDP is calculated on the total value of goods and services generated in dollar terms.  The appearance of a static GDP is artificial.  In real Main Street terms, $12 billion in economic activity is lost, but the price or increased value of electricity hides the drop created by the absence of goods and services purchased.

Fewer goods and services are purchased and consumed.  However, statistically the inflated price of electricity gives the illusion of a status quo economy.

Now expand that perspective to a national level and you can see our current economic condition.

All of this is being done under the justification of “climate change.”

Previously I would have said this level of economic impact in Europe would lead to a total revolt against the government.  However, with the backdrop of the recent COVID lockdowns and government control mechanisms in mind, and looking at the citizen compliance that took place in response to those government mandates, it is now more likely the citizens in Europe will simply bow to the energy control mechanisms of the governing authority.

It’s almost as if the COVID compliance effort was the test…

US Emergency Oil Reserves – Gone?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Humor Re-Posted Sep 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Categories: Humor

US Oil Reserves Nearly Depleted


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Sep 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been at its lowest level since, ironically, 1984. The reservoirs are composed of four underground sites constructed from salt domes on the Gulf Coasts of Louisiana and Texas. The White House began extracting oil from the emergency reserves to combat rising gas prices. Politicians simply hope that the problem can be patched up for as long as they can remain in power.

In August, the US extracted 18 million barrels of crude. The stockpile now sits at only 450 million, reaching a nearly 40-year low. Additionally, the White House under Biden has been selling off the remaining reserves to foreign refiners. China received nearly a million barrels of oil to a subsidiary of Sinopec, a company that previously received BILLIONS in investments from an equity firm operated by none other than Hunter Biden. In fact, Biden has sold off nearly a quarter of oil reserves this year alone. Is he deliberately trying to create a crisis to spark the Great Reset?

Russia is not to blame for rising gas prices, as a gallon cost a mere $2.28 in December 2020. A year later, after Biden implemented disastrous green policies, the price rose to $3.40. Biden panicked once gas hit $5 in June and began to pull from the reserves to make it seem as if he had a grip on the problem. The government has no solution for the current energy crisis. The best we can hope for is the Republicans coming to power and demanding that domestic production continue immediately.

Using Executive Power Biden Pledges Increases in OSHA Workplace Inspections as Part of Climate Change Compliance System


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 20, 2022 | sundance 

Joe Biden has pledged to increase his use of executive power in order to deconstruct the U.S. energy system and recreate a Green New Deal energy economy using windmills and solar power to generate electricity.  Today, Biden kicked-off the first round of executive orders [READ HERE].

The first round of executive orders is essentially payments to low income Americans for the increased costs of Biden’s new energy programs.  However, for those paying close attention, I would direct you to notice this predictable aspect in the “Fact Sheet” provided by the White House:

…”the Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) has already conducted 564 heat-related inspections, which are focused on over 70 high-risk industries across 43 states. On days when the heat index is 80°F or higher, OSHA inspectors and compliance assistance specialists are engaging in proactive outreach and technical assistance to help stakeholders keep workers safe on the job.”

Overlaying the COVID-19 mandates and executive orders as a guide, I think everyone can see where this is going.

[Go Deeper Here]

.

Prepare for the Biden Blackouts…

The Government is Tracking You


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jul 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yes, the government is tracking your movements. You do not need to have a COVID pass installed on your phone nor do you need to be a criminal. The location data industry has become a $12 billion market that is actively growing.

It recently came to light that the Trump Administration began tracking mobile data on a grand scale. The Department of Homeland Security targeted information on at least 336,000 data points across the country. Biden continued tracking American’s locations and provided the Customs and Border Protection with a $20,000 contract last September.

One company, Venntel, said that it has access to 250 million phones and devices. There are currently no restrictions on this invasion of privacy, and the government may legally track you and your family. This information has been abused by various agencies, such as one that tracked the location of people who visited abortion clinics.  The US military even used the technology to identify Muslim populations.

“There are over 350 million mobile devices in the United States in use today, and that number is growing exponentially as more people purchase mobile devices every day. Therefore it is not uncommon to encounter individuals involved with illicit activity taking advantage of mobile technology to further their criminal goals,” a contract between CBP and Venntel said.

You can attempt to turn off your device’s location, but that is extremely difficult considering the number of apps we use on a daily basis. GPS? Tracked! Social media? Tracked! Various search engines? You bet!

I believe this violates the Fourth Amendment, which is intended to protect citizens from unreasonable searches and seizures by the government.

Coming Soon: Climate Change v Animal Activists


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jul 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Two groups that usually overlap are about to come into direct confrontation due to the net-zero carbon culture. Both climate and animal rights activists have been known to make their voices heard through protests that are not always peaceful. Farmers are being unfairly targeted by climate change activists for having cattle that produce emissions, and governments are ramping up legislation to limit farming.

Farmers in Norway have been protesting for months as the government plans to eliminate around 30% of agriculture to reduce carbon emissions. Now, Northern Ireland is considering eliminating over one million cattle and sheep to meet emission targets by 2050. The Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) estimates that 500,000 cattle and 700,000 sheep will need to die. In a separate analysis, five million chickens will need to be slaughtered before 2035.

While animal activists to the extreme would like to end farming and create a meatless world, they are not going to be happy when they realize those piloting the climate change agenda plan to kill these animals rather than allowing them to live out their days on taxpayer-funded farms.

Activism aside, we are in the midst of a food crisis. Those in first-world nations have seen the cost of food rise drastically throughout the past year. Perhaps some of your groceries of choice are no longer available or are often out of stock. However, people are starving to death in less developed parts of the world at a rapid rate and there is not enough food or funding to save everyone. In fact, the World Bank estimated that world hunger reached a high in 2021 when 193 million became food insecure, a number that rose by 40 million from 2020. Our model indicates that this cycle will continue to grow.

In the meantime, those championing saving the world with various causes will come into direct confrontation with one another. The left will increasingly divide into left v Socialists and dampen plans for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Macron Tells Biden to Rethink Energy Plans


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jun 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

French President Emmanuel Macron pulled US President Joe Biden aside at the G7 summit to explain a few basic facts. Biden has been demanding Middle Eastern nations ramp up their oil and gas production to help offset the energy crisis his administration has created. It’s ok to drill and take from the environment as long as it is not on US soil.

A reporter recorded Macron explaining to Biden that the United Arab Emirates is already at maximum capacity and cannot produce more oil. He also told him that begging the Saudis for oil was a lost cause too. These were the only two OPEC nations left that the US thought it could tap into for more oil.

Journalist Michael Shellenberger tweeted part of the exchange between the US and French leaders: “I had a call with MBZ,” Macron said. (MBZ is the leader of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.) “He told me two things. I’m at a maximum [production capacity] and [the] Saudis can increase by 150 [thousands barrels per day].”

Reporters were visibly in earshot when Macron spoke to Biden, which seems like a strategic move. It is a not-so-subtle effort to explain to the US, as the world is watching, that they have the power to ramp up production on its own without grappling for help from other nations.