Leading Edge of Field to Fork Inflation Starts to Arrive in September Producer Price Index


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 12, 2022 | Sundance 

The “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released September price data [Available Here] showing another 8.5% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level.  However, that’s not the bad news in this data.

While the overall September PPI was higher than expected at 0.4%, the Final Demand Producer Price for food products in September was a whopping 1.2% (14.4% annualized).

The BLS notes the driver by saying, “a major factor in the September increase in prices for final demand goods was a 15.7-percent advance in the index for fresh and dry vegetables. Prices for diesel fuel, residential natural gas, chicken eggs, home heating oil, and pork also moved higher.”

That’s a 15.7% increase in price, in one month, for fresh and dry vegetables.  Annualized that’s a rate of price increase of 188.4% for vegetables.   Remember the warning about farm costs (energy, fertilizer, fuel) driving field to fork inflation at harvest?  This is the leading edge of that third wave of food price increases.

I have modified BLS Table-2 to focus specifically on food costs.  The data is on left.

You will note that ‘row crops’ are the big drivers along with grain and seed products.  This is exactly as we predicted it would be because those specific farming costs are the ones with greatest increase from energy, fuel, fertilizer, weed and insect control, and diesel costs.

All of those higher costs have been growing in the fields and will now surface at harvest.   The higher farm costs transfer from the field to the fork via the food supply chain.  This is only the leading edge of the price increase.

In October 2021 we first warned of the food price increases coming in distinct waves.  The first was Jan, Feb and March 2022.   The second wave was May through July 2022.  This third wave will be bigger than the first two and starts arriving this month, October 2022.

People laughed at me when I said in late 2022 eggs were going to reach .50¢ EACH ($6/doz).

Well, in September the price of fresh eggs jumped 16.7% in a single month.  That’s an annualized rate of price increase for eggs over 200%.

With hindsight you can clearly see the three waves of food price increases (BLS Table A):

Get ready and shop smart.

The October, November and December price increases in the grocery store are going to make the prior fresh food increases look small, as the full increased costs of farming operations starts to arrive at the supermarket.   Unfortunately, this will coincide with a wave of gasoline price increases, and the prices of natural gas are already skyrocketing.

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Canadians Not Willing to Hand Over Guns


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Oct 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Trudeau Administration wants to eliminate all freedoms. Provinces are fighting back at Trudeau’s gun confiscation, deemed a “mandatory gun buyback” for assault rifles. As usual, the government put this plan in place without a plan for enforcement.

Two years ago, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, in the video above, explained that firearm ownership is already under strict regulations. Only law-abiding citizens must adhere to these regulations. He accused Ottawa of using the people as scapegoats for their gun confiscation plan instead of cracking down on gangs and criminals who actually commit gun crimes. Now, Trudeau is going after the people and pointing at events that occurred outside Canada as a reason to ban citizens from legally owning assault rifles.

Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), Alberta Justice Minister and Solicitor General Tyler Shandro reminded the Liberal Party that Alberta taxpayers pay C$750 million annually to fund the RCMP. “We expect that those dollars not be wasted to pay for a confiscation program that will not increase public safety,” Shandro said after calling the program disturbing. “We will not tolerate taking officers off the street in order to confiscate the property of law-abiding firearms owners.”

Manitoba Attorney General Kelvin Goertzen quoted from a letter that he wrote to Canadian Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino, said the law “unnecessarily targets lawful gun owners,” as criminals are still going to be in possession of firearms – obviously. “In Manitoba’s view, any buy-back program cannot further erode precious provincial police resources, already suffering from large vacancy rates, from focusing on investigation of violent crime.”

Saskatchewan’s Minister of Corrections, Policing, and Public Safety Christine Tell also called the mandate a waste of resources that is not supported. “The Government of Saskatchewan does not support and will not [authorize] the use of provincially funded resources for any process that is connected to the federal government’s proposed ‘buyback’ of these firearms,” she declared.

Banning any form of firearms is a method to control the people. The government and criminals will be the only ones with power, with the average law-abiding citizen helpless. Gun confiscation has occurred countless times in RECENT history and has not ended well.

Newsom Begs Illegals and Out-of-State Citizens for Votes


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Sep 27, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The left is so afraid of a red wave this November that they will do anything to allow illegals to vote. California’s Gavin Newsom, who admitted his party is “getting crushed,” signed into law an act that will permit illegal immigrants to obtain an official government-issued ID. “We’re a state of refuge – a majority-minority state, where 27 percent of us are immigrants,” Newsom said after signing the legislation. “That’s why I’m proud to announce the signing of today’s bills to further support our immigrant community, which makes our state stronger every single day.”

“I mean, if we are going to be realistic, they pay you to be homeless here.”

In addition to providing illegals with government IDs, Newsom is campaigning for votes in other states. His campaign has placed billboards in seven states, urging women to move to California where abortion is legal (a bit odd since women do not exist in woke America). Newsom placed billboard and newspaper ads across Texas to criticize the state’s gun laws, claiming California is so much safer. He has even run commercials in Florida to beg people to move to California.

Newsflash: people live in other states because they do not want government tyranny and sky-high taxes. Democrats love saying that “Democracy is under attack” while threatening to remove our freedoms. The exodus from California continues as civilians and businesses can no longer handle living under Newsom.