There is little doubt that Spain was once the Financial Capital of the West. Their discovery of America produced mountains of gold and silver to the point that they really impacted the European economy creating significant waves of inflation. However, there was the War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714) which was why the famous Spanish Fleet that sank on July 31st, 1715 took place. This was a massive treasure fleet that remained in the New World until the war was over because the risk of being attacked by the British was too high. The British sought to prevent the Spanish from funding themselves for the war by preventing ships carrying gold to make it to Spain. The fleet was 11 ships and they are said to have been carrying not just gold and silver, but the dowry for the Queen called the Queen’s Jewels.

When the Spanish Colonial authorities heard of the great disaster, they responded from Havana and St. Augustine. Over 1,000 men died and the survivors were few on the beach. The authorities tried to direct their efforts at salvaging the galleons. By September 1715, some survivors were still at the camp on the beach. The Spanish authorities had turned the beach into a base of salvage operations. The Spaniards claimed that they were able to recover large portions of the treasure. This may have been a tactic of the Spanish exaggerating the amount of the recovery to deter others. Nevertheless, there were pirates were responding to the wreck perhaps even as fast as the Spanish. One English privateer named Jennings was a very successful pirate in early 1716. Given the vast number of coins that have still been recovered, obviously, the Spanish never recovered any significant portion.

The War of the Spanish Succession was a European conflict of the early 18th century that was triggered by the death of the childless Charles II of Spain in November 1700. His closest heirs were members of the Austrian Habsburg and French Bourbon families. With the riches of the New World at stake, who would rule Spain was a major economic prize. This also was a critical issue in changing the European balance of power. Charles II had actually left the undivided Spanish monarchy to Louis XIV’s grandson Philip of France who was proclaimed King of Spain on November 16th, 1700. Disputes erupted over the separation of the Spanish and French crowns. In reality, in an effort to regulate the impending succession there were three principal claimants, England, the Dutch Republic, and France. During October 1698, they signed the First Treaty of Partition. They all agreed that on the death of Charles II, Prince Joseph Ferdinand, son of the elector of Bavaria, should inherit Spain, the Spanish Netherlands, and the Spanish colonies. They also allocated Spain’s Italian dependencies would be partitioned between Austria which would get the Duchy of Milan and France Naples and Sicily.

Then in February 1699, Joseph Ferdinand died. Now a second treaty was drafted and signed on June 11th, 1699, by England and France and in March 1700 by the Dutch Republic and Spain. Leopold, however, refused to sign the treaty and demanded that Charles receive all the Spanish territories intact. Therefore, we see the contest between the Bourbons of France and Spain against the Grand Alliance. Bavaria joined France in September 1702 while Savoy and Portugal joined the Grand Alliance with Austria, whose candidate was Archduke Charles, the younger son of Habsburg Emperor Leopold. This led to war breaking out in 1701.

By 1710, fighting was really at a stalemate. France was unable to conquer Italy and the Low Countries. Philip V was the secure ruler in Spain. When Archduke Charles unexpectedly succeeded as Emperor Charles VI in 1711, Britain effectively withdrew. This then forced the Allies to make peace which produced the 1713 Treaty of Utrecht, followed in 1714 with Rastatt and Baden. With the British withdrawing and peace was restored, then Philip V could be confirmed as King of Spain and, in exchange, he renounced the French throne. The European territories were divided between Austria, Britain, and Savoy. Britain emerged as the key European maritime and commercial power overshadowing the Spanish and the Dutch.

Spain had borrowed heavily for this War of Succession because it could not risk bringing in its treasure fleets. Spain had become a serial defaulter beginning in 1557 followed by 1570, 1575, 1596, 1607, and 1647 ending in a 3rd world status. The loss of the treasure fleet of 11 ships in 1715 was a crushing blow to Spain. The lost of the 1715 Treasure fleet reduced Philip V to the status of a beleaguered monarch. Philip V had badly needed all the gold and silver to pay loans. The New World wealth that had made Spain a world power in the 16th and 17th Century had now become a fraction of what it once was. Spain’s role in world affairs declined in proportion with the loss of the 1715 Treasure Fleet.

Nobody has yet found the gold, silver, and jewels that were designated as part of the dowry for his new 22-year-old wife. He had married Elisabeth Farnese of Parma by proxy in 1714 and was still trying to make a good impression on the reluctant lady. Her dowry was to be the greatest of any queen in Europe. More than 1200 pieces of rare jewelry were said to have gone down with the fleet. She was demanding that her dowry be the greatest in Europe. She requested a heart made of 130 pearls, 14-carat pearl earrings, a pure coral rosary with large sized beads and an emerald ring weighing 74 carats. The Queen’s dowry was reported to have been stored in the personal cabin of the Fleet’s senior officer. She gives a new meaning to the term “gold digger” and no doubt was a woman worthy of the title – high maintenance. Of course, they were never marriages for love or even physical attraction.

The loss of the 1715 fleet immediately resulted in the debasement of silver coins which began in 1716. The Spanish mints flooded Spain with debased silver based on the real sencillo of 3·067 g, containing 2·556 g silver. These silver coins were called plata provincial. The silver minted in America was now officially called plata nacional, but was also called plata vieja (old silver) or plata gruesa (heavy silver), and occasionally plata doble (double silver).

COMMENT: Marty; You are not only the only person to forecast BREXIT, you also said the British Economy would do far better after BREXIT. There was absolutely nobody that agreed with you. I read every bank report in the city and every single one said the British economy would take a nose dive in the Thames. Well, all the official numbers are out and they have all proved Socrates to be an astonishing tool.  No wonder Maggie loved you.

HWM

REPLY: Yes, a good friend of mine who has a retail business there disagreed with me and said he would probably have to move to Frankfurt. He said that after the vote. I spoke to him last week and he said he reduced his staff in Zurich and hired more people in Britain. When I asked why? He responded it was half the price.

The numbers have shown that pay growth for British workers has “unexpectedly increased at the strongest rate for three years amid the lowest levels of unemployment since the mid-1970s” wrote the Guardian. It is because Britain is getting out of the EU which has been the most damaging to Britain’s economy because it gets the short stick on every negotiation. I cannot think of even one dispute that Britain has EVER won in the EU court. The typical idiom Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me, in the case of British politicians it should be Fool me once Ok you got me; Fool me twice alright shame of me; Fool me again, I must be just an idiot so no worries I will never figure it out anyway. I do not know how many times the numbers show joining the EU was a VERY, VERY, VERY, stupid idea. Europe has always hated the Brits. The French view if Napoleon won at Waterloo, then the world would be speaking French not English.

I have shown this chart to several UK politicians. They were surprised, but still never used it publicly.  If you just put aside all the opinions and what-ifs, just look at the numbers, you may begin to see the light.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I think I am starting to understand your view of inflation. It is very complex. I think some people cannot think beyond a simple one dimension concept as you often say. So I am trying to be more dynamic in my thinking process. Here you point out that when debt is collateral it is the same as printing money but worse because it pays interest. Then you point out that hyperinflation takes place not because of printing money but because a collapse in confidence and people then hoard their wealth which reduces the economic output and that compels a government to print more to cover expenses. So there is a line that is crossed and kicks in that collapse in confidence as in Venezuela. This is very interesting but complex. Is this a fair statement?

ANSWER: You are doing very well. You are correct. Some people cannot get beyond an increase in money supply is automatically inflationary. If that was true, then 10 years of quantitative easing by the ECB failed completely in that theory. They too cannot get beyond this simple-minded one dimension concept. There is yet another dimension that these people who will say I am wrong while clinging to the old theories that they fail to understand. The BULK of the money is actually created by the banks in leveraged lending. If I lent you $100 and you signed a note that you would repay it, then the note becomes my asset on my balance sheet. I can take that to a bank and borrow on my account receivables. In this instance, just you are I are creating money. Now let a bank stand between us. I deposit $100 and they lend it to you. We now both have accounts that show we have $100. We just doubled the money supply and nobody printed anything. These people that yelled that Quantitative Easing would produce hyperinflation and gold would soar, refuse to admit that everything they have relied upon is an old theory that no longer applies to our modern society. Money is now debt issued by the government, debt created privately, and the physical money issued. But the actual paper money is a tiny fraction of the real money supply. The common thread between it all is CONFIDENCE.

Just look at Turkey. Erdogan has now been forced to raise interest rates. Inflation and interest rates follow a Bell Curve. Everything will be normal until confidence is lost. Once that threshold is crossed, then hyperinflation begins and interest rates rise in a desperate move to try to attract capital and confidence. This simplistic perspective of an increase in the money supply produces inflation is just so childish it demonstrates these people have never just looked at the charts. This theory is what was behind the entire central bank management of the economy. I have quoted Paul Volcker, in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle he states clearly that this view of Keynesian economics failed back in the 1970s.

These people who cannot understand the complex relationship of money v inflation should work for the government. The central banks even back in 1927 looked at interest rate differentials and have attempted to use that to manipulate currency values. The Fed lowered interest rates hoping capital would return to the higher interest rates offered in Europe to prevent the economic collapse. The smart money realized that something was wrong and the capital flows moved into the US share market and the Dow. It was like smelling a rat in Venezuela or Turkey. Capital lost confidence in Europe and the higher interest rates failed to attract capital as we see today in Turkey or Venezuela. As the capital fled Europe, they drove the dollar higher. The invisible line of confidence was crossed.

All you have to do is look at the charts. When the Fed lowered the rates in 1927, the capital smelled a rat. It began to pour into the USA. The Fed then assumed the rally was because it lowered the interest rates. They responded and began to raise rates to then try to stop the speculative bubble. The Fed then raised rates from 3.5% to 6% and the stock market rallied. All I do is look at the evidence. So much for raising rates will make the stock market decline. That is for idiots.

As the capital fled Europe it rushed into the dollar. The US dollar rose so high, this is what began the whole Smoot-Hawley protectionist round. That was passed in 1930 AFTER the high. Because the dollar kept rising, this produced asset deflation. Commodities collapsed which sparked Smoot-Hawley because they were concerned with agriculture Even silver, which peaked in 1919, declined and bottomed in 1932 with the stock market.

Milton Friedman criticised the Fed because all this gold came flooding into the USA and the gold reserves rose dramatically. Milton criticized the Fed for not issuing money to expand the money supply when Roosevelt’s Brain Trust worried about maintaining the confidence in the system and wanted the austerity.

The Fed had been lowering interest rates from 1929 into 1931 just as Draghi did in the ECB with the same net result – DEFLATION. The Fed then raised interest rates during the 1931 Currency Crisis deeply concerned about CONFIDENCE.

Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs recorded what took place. He said capital was rushing from one currency to the next they could not form a committee fast enough to figure out what even took place. NONE of this crazy period has ANYTHING to do with increasing the money supply. It was all about CONFIDENCE. Over two hundred cities began to issue their own money BECAUSE there was a shortage of money. This was called Depression Script.  Depression scrip was used during the Great Depression era of the 1930’s as a substitute for government-issued currency because there was a SHORTAGE plain and simple. Because of some 9000 banks closed, this added to the problem of a lack of physical currency. Therefore the concept of issuing a local currency was the answer to allow commerce.

At one point, the U.S. Government considered issuing a nationwide scrip on a temporary basis because they feared that increasing the money supply itself would be inflationary. This idea was shot down by the Secretary of the Treasury William H. Woodin at the time. Meanwhile, it was also argued that the currency had been reduced in size on June 20th, 1929 and while the old notes were still valid, the argument was that the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing did not issue enough currency fast enough which also contributed to the deflation.

It was actually the Agricultural economist George Warren (1874-1938) who convinced Franklin Roosevelt that the way to end the deflation was to devalue the dollar. Roosevelts Brains Trust vehemently disagreed clinging to the old theory that they needed to maintain CONFIDENCE in the government by rejecting anything that would increase the money supply.

When Roosevelt devalued the dollar and confiscated gold to prevent people from profiting from the devaluation, the economy immediately boomed and rallied into 1937. Why? Suddenly assets rise in terms of the new depreciated currency and people THINK in nominal terms. So if the stock market doubles, you assume you doubled your money. But if everything else doubles in value, in terms of net purchasing power, you gained NOTHING!

The sad part is these people who just yell and scream that I am wrong because inflation is caused by only a rise in the supply of money, to be as polite as I can, they are just incapable of understanding complex systems. Even in nominal terms, inflation can be caused by different simulations. The currency declines and we have asset inflation as I just laid in the USA from 1934 to 1937, or just look at Turkey and Venezuela in real time. We have asset inflation as in the DOT.COM bubble where capital is rushing into some new hot investment sector. Then we have demand inflation, which can be illustrated by say a serious weather condition and wheat rises because of crop failures.

So in the end, since the national debt is growing exponentially now thanks to interest expenditures that will exceed defense spending in 2019, obviously if you did pay off the debt by printing money, there would be a far less inflationary impact from the government budget perspective. It would no longer have the interest carrying costs so you would REDUCE the actual amount of new money being created which includes DEBT.

This is just not a simple equation of increasing the supply of money = inflation. I was the one yelling on the Hill that the Fed buying in 30-year bonds would NOT stimulate the economy BECAUSE they ASSUMED the system is an isolated domestic affair. It is not!. You buy-in the 30-year bonds and you have no idea if the seller is domestic or foreign. So the money left the country and stimulate somewhere else. You have to look at the whole system. Anyone who says inflation is created by an increase in money supply is off the reservation clinging to old theories that ignore debt, banking leverage, international capital flows, and that is just the beginning.

Just when you thought President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was really off the reservation, he suddenly appears off the planet. Erdogan has appointed HIMSELF as chairman of Turkey’s Sovereign Wealth Fund and got rid of the entire management staff. It looks like Erdogan now thinks he can force the free market to do as he commands if he is also the trader for the Sovereign Wealth Fund.

Of course, Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, Erdogan’s son-in-law, will also sit on the board, according to a decree published in the Official Gazette. Anyone who actually thinks that Turkey can recover is out of their mind. The fund was formed to try and capitalize on state assets and put a lid on market turmoil in the wake of a failed coup attempt. This is a guaranteed nightmare in the making. We are witnessing a stubborn politician who has become a dictator and believes there is nothing beyond his power. It is just approaching the time to turn out the lights on Turkey as any viable place for investment. Turkey is now approaching the highest Country Risk for investment on the board

There were more than 100 gold Roman coins discovered in a buried hoard in the Cressoni theatre in Como, north of Milan. What I have examined from the photographs supplied to me, is that this is a hoard from the virtual fall of Rome. The coins I identified were from the Puppet Emperor of Ricimer, a Germanic general who ruled Rome through puppet emperors going into the end of the Western Empire. His power emerged in 461AD until his death in 472AD. The official fall of Rome took place in 466AD. After Ricimer’s death, the Germanic King of Italy, Odoacer deposed the last Western Emperor Romulus Augustus in 476AD, which is considered to mark the fall of the Western Roman Empire.

The photographs of the coins I reviewed clearly show the puppet Emperor Libius Severus III (461-465AD) was rather common in the hoard. This established that the hoard is from this period forward meaning it was a stash place for someone during the fall of Rome. Obviously, the person did not live to come back to retrieve his coins. These coins are worth probably $1 million+ depending upon the emperors in this entire batch which might be discovered. It could possibly rise to at least the $2 million valuations.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You are a history buff. Who was the richest person in ancient times? Has there ever been a trillionaire?

PD

ANSWER: The Roman Emperor August. He is believed to have been worth in current dollar terms nearly $5 trillion. The only other person to have reached the trillion dollars net worth status was King Solomon of Judaea. After Octavian/Augustus defeated Marc Antony and Cleopatra, he then possessed the entire wealth of Egypt. In this respect, the wealth really did belong to him. Some have attributed the entire wealth of nations conquered and argued that Genghis Khan was worth probably 100 trillion dollars. However, the Roman system was rather different. Even taxation for a governor of a province would be owed by the governor to the state so whatever he would collect fell to him personally.

Marcus Licinius Crassus was perhaps one of the richest private men in Roman history. He amassed an enormous fortune through real estate speculation buying confiscated property seized by Marius from the supporters of Sulla. Crassus’s wealth is estimated by Pliny at approximately 200 million sestertii. Plutarch says the wealth of Crassus increased from less than 300 talents at first to 7,100 talents. An Attic (Greek, Athens) talent was the equivalent of 60 minae or 6,000 drachmae. A silver Drachm was generally 15mm in diameter with a weight of 4.20 grams. In Roman terms, this was about 26 kilograms (57 lb). If we take Plutarch’s measurement of wealth, that would be 42.6 million denarii.

A Roman soldier earned 225 denarii a year. Today, the average soldier in the US army earns $48,538 per year. That would approximately be $9.189 billion. If we take Jeff Bezos who is reported to be worth $164 billion based upon his stock in Amazon, that works out to the annual salary of 3.4 million soldiers compared to Crassus’ worth being 189,333 soldiers. However, the real difference is that Crassus’ wealth is cash whereas Bezos’ wealth is the current value of a stock. If he tried to sell it for cash, the value would be significantly less.

Crassus’ son, Publius Licinius Crassus (c 86BC – 53 BC), served under Julius Caesar. He did issue coins during the Republic as a “moneyer” who was a person authorized to issue the coins during the Roman Republic. The Senate actually controlled the quantity of money to be produced. There would be a “State of the Union” type of address to the Senate where they would be given the account of money on hand and what they expected the annual expenses would be. The Senate would then authorize the number of coins to be issued that fiscal year. The Quaestors handed the raw bullion and they would turn that over to the official who was the “moneyer” for that year. The moneyers would decide on the design to be issued which often celebrated his ancestors. The coinage would be struck and then handed back to the Quaestors for the expenditure of the government. The office of a moneyer continued into the Imperial period.

COMMENT: Marty; Did you know that your site is listed in the top 20 economic sites in the world? You are in the top 20 with Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, London FT, and even  Brookings Ben Bernanke’s Blog. The rest of the list includes the Economic Policy Institute, Economics & Statistics Administration, and The Berkeley Blog Business & Economics. You may be a lot more influential than you portray.

JS

REPLY: Perhaps. But keep in mind that your enemies always read you because they need to know what you are saying now to feed their hatred. Aside from that, every intelligence service reads our work. They understand there is a cycle to everything and ever since the London FT reported I warned Russia would collapse just before the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management collapse on Russian bonds, they all pay close attention.