2032 – How Hard Do We Fall?


 

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

First, I’d like to offer my condolences on your mother’s passing. It feels to me that you must take great satisfaction in the fact that she must have been very proud of your accomplishments, and what you are trying to do for the average person. To me, that is the ultimate goal of a child; in thanking their parents for everything they have done.

Concerning the blog entry of “Crash & Burn & The Sixth Wave”, you write that it all depends upon if we begin the process in 2021. My interpretation – having followed you for years now – is that the people must rise up and push back against higher taxation, and demand reform and/or it could hinge on the Euro breaking apart, which provides the path to follow for the rest of us.

I believe you meant that if the people just acquiesce and do nothing – like in 2008, then those in power continue to run the economy for their benefit, causing the social fabric to continue to be torn apart between 2021-2032, (which means continued record low birth rates, low productivity, record low levels of capex, record suicide rates, etc) until it finally crumbles by 2032, leading to civil unrest. Have I got this right?

Thanks again for everything that you do.

Danny

ANSWER: We have to understand that this will be the third such sequence of the Sixth Wave. At the end of the first sequence, we have civilization going into a Dark Age. That also coincided with the energy output of the sun declining and the massive volcanic eruption of Thera (Santorini), which ended the Minoan culture. That is when Mycenae invaded as well as the conquest of Troy. The last wave peaked in 175.35 AD, and after that we have the political unrest and collapse into 268 AD. I for one have a personal hope that we can avoid that outcome. In both cases, this is when the energy output of the sun dropped into a cold period where the Greeks became the sea people and migrated back to Africa. The second sequence saw the invasion of the barbarians as they moved south and overthrew the Roman Empire. The wall around Rome was not built until 270 AD. If we keep sticking our finger in a light socket and getting zapped, are we unable to learn from experience? The question in my mind is how hard will we land?

This is the cycle, it is NOT my “opinion” and I would prefer to point it out and say we can change the outcome if we understand the causes. There is no stopping the cycle. All I believe we are capable of doing is changing the degree of volatility. This is clearly the end of the West as a world economic power. The financial capital of the world will be shifting to China and Asia after 2032.

Even if we look at the hatred poured on Trump, this is indicative of how civilization collapses. It does not matter if you agree or disagree with Trump. This sort of hatred and the personal attacks, especially led by CNN, is so destructive I fear what comes AFTER Trump. There is absolutely NO POSSIBLE WAY that anyone who would really try to help the situation will come to power. CNN has guaranteed that nobody in the right mind would dare to be president. The only person will be a career politician who will NEVER look at the cycle. Instead, they will fill their pockets before they leave office. CNN loved Hillary. The Clintons stole a couch when they left the White House and had to return it. When you go to a hotel you might take all the soaps, but you do not leave with the bed.

If we do not realize what is happening, then yes, our own complacency will be our doom

Coming Crisis: Emerging Market Debt


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Just to clarify, a continued rate hike in dollars will send Emerging Market debt into chaos and possibly default. Is this both public and private?

Thank you.

You are a voice in the wilderness

PK

ANSWER: Oh yes. Both public and private emerging market debt raised money in dollars. A 2% increase in interest rates could spark a sharp rise in the proportion of emerging market corporate debt issues at risk of default. This is true especially in Brazil, Turkey, and Indi

Merkel Extracted €2.9 billion in Interest from Greece


Angela Merkel promised the German people that she would not just hand Greeks money as she does with the refugee, no, she would make them pay dearly for allowing Goldman Sachs to structure deals to get them in the Eurozone. Indeed, she has kept her word. In response to a parliamentary question from the Green Party, the German government had to release figures which revealed that Merkel has acted more like a loan shark making €2.9 billion in interest payments on Greek bonds since 2010 despite the ECB moving rates negative. Merkel bought Greek government bonds as part of an EU deal to prop up the struggling Greek economy since 2010. The bonds were bought by the Bundesbank and then transferred to the federal treasury.

This certainly gives new meaning to the pictures of Greek citizens paying dearly for the shenanigans of politicians. The Protestant Reformation is where we draw the line with the birth of Capitalism. The reason we draw the line there is because previously, the Catholic Church had forbidden what Merkel has just done – exploit someone when they are down and out. It was called the Sin of Usury. You were supposed to “help” a fellow in his time of need. The Catholics would have been excommunicated if they engaged in banking. The Protestant Reformation was funded by wealthy Catholic merchants who wanted to compete with the Jews and enter the banking field. The Protestant Reformation thus did not adopt the Sin of Usury so Christians became bankers and could borrow as well as lend. That is where the economy began to be leveraged and this Capitalism was born.

Cryptocurrencies Down into July?


COMMENT: I found it very interesting when my bank would not allow using a credit card to buy cryptocurrencies. A friend of mine in Singapore said the government there has also instructed banks not to honor cryptocurrencies. It appears that government is starting to retaliate against the cryptocurrency world and I must question its viability long-term.

DP

REPLY: Yes. This is happening around the world. The US banks of Bank Of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan, Capital One, and the Discover card, have all banned their customers from purchasing cryptocurrencies. In the UK, Lloyds banking group was the first to ban cryptocurrencies and then MBNA, Halifax, and Bank of Scotland quickly followed. According to the blockchain research firm Chainalysis,  the long-term Bitcoin holders sold at least $ 30 billion worth of Bitcoin to new speculators between December 2017 and April 2018, half of which was in December 2017 alone making this very taxable in 2018. Many cryptocurrency investors have been lulled by the claim this is outside the central banks and off the grid. There are hundreds of data sources available to governments to track payments after conversion to a hard cash they call “Fiat” currency. Anyone who had purchased cryptocurrencies using their credit cards before the banks started to ban those transactions has a clear paper record for government to track.

Downunder, the Australian Tax Office (ATO) warned crypto traders/investors that their profits from trading in the years 2017 to 2018 “will not go unnoticed” and they have come straight out and warned on their website: “Anyone involved in acquiring or selling cryptocurrency must keep records of their cryptocurrency transactions.” Virtually every government classifies cryptocurrencies as assets. Therefore, any gain relative to the hard cash or “Fiat” currency is then taxable.

I have stated before, the governments want to move to an electronic currency so everything is taxable. They have been watching the cryptocurrency world and are coming down on banks demanding information. This is what the banks are simply banning the use of their credit cards to buy cryptocurrencies. The legal costs of gathering data to prosecute people the governments will demand are causing them to simply refuse to allow customers to use their facilities. The same result took place when the US government imposed FACTA requiring foreign banks to report whatever an American does outside the country. The way to avoid any problems was simply to ban Americans from having an account overseas.

At this point in time, we do have a Directional Change in July. So we may yet see a temporary low form at that time.

Switzerland Reject “Real Money” Proposal to Eliminate Banks from Creating Electronic Money by Lending


In Switzerland, we get to see how people who are really clueless about how the economy works still manage to get outrageous referendums on the ballot. A radical plan to transform Switzerland’s financial landscape was rejected, thank God, which would have barred commercial banks from electronically creating money when they lend. These people have no idea what such a proposal would have done. Their homes would have collapsed in value for there would be no mortgages. If banks could lend only the money on deposit and you withdrew your account, then does that mean a bank would have to shut down a mortgage and throw you out of your house?

All 26 of the country’s self-governing cantons also voted against it. The supporters needed a majority from all of Switzerland’s cantons as well as a simple majority of voters to succeed in such a proposal. The very idea of introducing a “vollgeld” or “real money” system convinced voters to reject the proposals. The outcome would have created such an economic disaster Switzerland would have committed suicide and entered a complete Dark Age unto itself

Portugal


QUESTION: Can you shed any light on the history of money in Portugal. There seems to be scan discussion of this subject.

Thank you

ANSWER: The first coinage of Portugal really is Roman and it appears to be struck by the first Roman Emperor Augustus (27BC-14AD). The location of the mint was the city of Évora. Interestingly enough, the name in ancient times was Ebora, which is really Celtic which is the name of a species of tree and thus the name means “of the yew trees.” However, there is a lack of any evidence of ancient settlements prior to that of the Roman. Perhaps because any Celtic evidence lies under the city which is not accessible to archeologists.

It is generally assumed that Évora only came into being as a municipium after the Pax Romana under Octavian in 30 BC which are really the first coin evidence in the region. Yet the name implies there was Celtic activity previously. The first reference to Évora as a municipium is found in a list of cities in Hispania in the Historia Naturalis of Pliny the Elder to the year 77AD.

During the 4th and 5th centuries, the Roman mint for coinage in the Spanish/Portugees region was actually Barcino, or Barcelona. So the early coinage of Portugal appears first under Augustus and then later the coinage is all struck in Barcelonia.

In more modern times, you might be wondering where are there different references to money. There was reis and reals and gold ducketsrelate. From the 12th century, Portugal had a currency called the dinheiro (dinero). The word today means money and is taken from the Roman denariusReal meant royal, as in a royal coin, and reis was the plural of real.

Portugal’s capital is Lisbon but it did not emerge as a nation until 1143, as a result of a rebellion by Dom Afonso Henriques (Afonso I) against his own mother Teresa of León. Portugal won its independence at the Battle of São Mamede near the town of Guimarães, in June of 1128. The first coinage was that of Alfonso I (1139-1185) and it was a dinero.

Europe had silver mines, but not gold. Gold was found in Northern Africa and in Anatolia (modern Turkey). Portugal became prominent because it had trade links with the Arabs and imported gold for Europe. Therefore, during 15th and 16th centuries, Portugal emerged as a powerful nation and naval power. Famous explorers are Fernando Magellan (circumnavigated the world), Vasco da Gama (discovered the route to India) and Bartolomeu Dias (sailed around Africa). Portugal made many discoveries and established colonies all over the world. The most famous one is Brazil, but it also established colonies in Africa, such as Mozambique and Angola, and on other continents.

Portugal was actually the first global power and one of the biggest empires at that time and was, therefore, the Financial Capital of Europe. During a 1910 revolution, the rebellion against government erupted once again and overthrew the monarchy. For most of the next six decades, repressive governments ran the country. This led once again to civil unrest and a 1974 military coup installed broad democratic reforms. Finally, on January 1, 1986, Portugal became the eleventh member of the European Economic Community.

Crash & Burn & the Sixth Wave


QUESTION: Martin, as all members do, I really do thank you and appreciate you for your knowledge and insight. I am a business owner – Real Water and do approximately $10 million in annual sales right now. As a concerned citizen, I have also run for political office and was elected to the Nevada State Assembly in 2015. With Republican control, our legislature pushed through the largest tax increase in our State’s history in the name of more money for education (I led the opposition against the tax, but failed in preventing it). Of course, our latest school ratings came out and we are still ranked at the bottom – 50th. More government is NOT the solution!

I completely understand we are headed for a financial crash and burn. You have frequently stated that the only reason you are doing what you are doing is for your posterity. Other than personal preparation, extra food, don’t be in bonds, etc., what do you believe is the most beneficial thing we can do to help our country come out of the crash and burn with more freedom and limited government (like our Founders so emphatically intended) as opposed to the other potential of totalitarianism that you frequently warn us about? What is the most effective way to rally the troops so to say to help push our civilization in the proper direction?

To an elevated lifestyle,

 

ANSWER: The Government always thinks that throwing more money at something make it better. I have NEVER seen where that has EVER corrected any such trend. The problem lies in the total mismanagement. Governments are simply incapable of operating even a bubblegum machine. They completely fail to understand the economy, human nature, or society as a whole. The only way to actually correct such a problem is to privatize. That installs actual management and employees must actually perform. Government unions demand benefits and they negotiate with themselves. This is why the entire socialist agenda is collapsing.

I had a friend who was a postmaster. He had to tell an employee he would be checking on them a day before to ensure they were doing their job. The union made them provide notice so the employee would not actually be caught doing anything. This is how government unions have destroyed themselves and society. This is what we are headed into a crash and burn because governments do not respect the people and assume we are an endless supply of revenue.

All government agencies should be privatized and then the services they provide would actually work. Going to the New Jersey Division of Motor Vehicles was a case study in how not to run a government. The people were nasty, you would wait in line and they would be having a conversation with the next employee about what they would do after work and actually make you wait even 5 minutes while they did this right in front of your face. The attitude was WTF do you want now. Just absolutely nasty and hostile. No supervision and nobody even forces them to actually work. Always a horrible experience – not just one time. Ask a question and you NEVER got a straight or correct answer.

It is a structural management problem. There is no accountability and you can look at any government agency and you will see the same pattern. Increase the budget and there is NEVER any actually change. They cannot improve because there is a lack of management ability.

What does the Crash & Burn look like? It all depends upon how long we have to wait to achieve it. If we get the start of a Crash & Burn in 2021, then there is real hope of a soft-landing. If we are looking at stalling and refusing to change as taxes continue to rise, we will see that last wave of totalitarianism and then what comes AFTER 2032 is a very hard landing. That type of decline historically results in civil war and/or revolution.

All I can offer is what has happened before historically. My personal opinion would be just a guess and that is not what clients want to hear. So the sooner the better and the longer this is stalled the worse it gets.

This hostile attack against Trump is symbolic of the bureaucracy fighting to keep its power. They think if they can get Trump out of office, they will return it back to normal with a career politician. They are seriously wrong for the people voted for Trump because they are fed up with the system as is. This was not a personal popularity contest that Trump won. It is the rising tension of the people. There is no going back. This can only lead to a confrontation between the left and right. Choose where you want to live based upon the political orientation of that area. The area I live in was conservative which voted overwhelmingly for Trump. That is a bit safer than a left area for they ultimate come after you because they see you are the problem, why things are not going their way.