Capital Flows Not Central Banks Are Holding Up US Economy


 

 

 

QUESTION: Dear Martin,

Re: Non-Farm Payrolls Blowout All Analysts Show USA is Still Holding Up the World

I am been following you for a number of years and believe you to be one of the best-informed analysts in the world.
However, your latest email concerning the gobbledygook reported by the BLS for May’s unemployment figures really has me concerned.
Surely you don’t believe these feel-good statistics which are nothing more than manipulation of the “officially employed” versus “those not in the workforce.”
I believe you are sincere in your analysis but this information is highly suspect.
Would very much like to hear your comments on the subject.

Respectfully,

JLS

P.S. By the way I think you would agree that it is the coordination by the Central Banks which is holding up the World not the USA !

 

ANSWER: There is job creation taking place, however, the index has been manipulated as has just about everything else. The economic growth is half that of a decade ago and from that perspective, we are in a declining mode overall into 2020. That said, the US economy is holding up the world right now, not the central banks. The ECB is keeping not the European economy up, but it has been keeping the governments on life-support.

The Fed has been fighting to even reach its 2% goal for inflation. The problem with deflation is that people will NOT spend wildly when their homes are still below what they paid or at break-even throughout most of the country. The money centers have risen for the high-end because of the foreign money pouring in. The IRS demanded that the real owner of real estate be revealed by the Title Company at closing but this has been limited to New York City and Miami.

The USA is holding up the world BECAUSE the capital flight has been to the USA both from China and from Europe. The central banks are in serious trouble outside the USA. The ECB can actually go bankrupt. Don’t forget, the EU does not issue its own debt. It depends on revenue from the member states. They have already demanded more money from everyone to make up the shortfall from BREXIT.

With respect to the unemployment numbers, of course, they have been manipulated so that if you give up looking, you are not unemployed. Nevertheless, the market responds to that number REGARDLESS of the change in the formula. I can say the top multinational corporate clients we have are all bringing the money home under Trump. Trump’s tax reform is putting pressure on states who have abused their citizens the most like California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Illinois in particular. There is a net migration out of these states all because of taxes.

So it is all relative. Jobs are being created because of the capital flow and lower taxes. This is putting pressure on the rest of the world as well

Thatcher’s Last Stand Against Socialism


 

Deutsche Bank Formally Classified as a Problem Bank


 

Deutsche Bank has now been classified as a problem bank by FDIC and has been included in a list of banks to be watched. This is the biggest bank in Europe. It cannot be merged within Germany with Commerce Bank for there is just not enough equity to overcome the derivative losses. The only other candidate is BNP, but that is a French bank. This is where the fairytale of Euroland ends. They wanted to create a single currency, but they were unwilling to actually merge the economies. This is why our sources in Italy argue they are now an occupied country. They are dictated to but and request for help is rejected. This is what the “remain” crowd argue for against BREXIT?

A merger of BNP with Deutsche Bank would mean Germany is subservient to France. That is not “politically” acceptable. The entire “BAIL-IN” scheme was NOT because the government wanted to hold banks “responsible” but because a bailout of banks in one country would be seen as a transfer of money from one country to another. This exposes why the Euro is in serious trouble. There is ONLY the idea of a single currency and then Brussels will dictate what everyone else must do, but Brussels refuses to take responsibility for the debt and banking system of all of Europe.

From the very beginning when the committee in charge of creating the Euro came to our WEC in London, I warned that (1) there would be no single interest rate, and (2) without a debt-consolidation, the Euro would NEVER compete with the dollar and ultimately fail. The success of the USA was primarily (1) a single language, and (2) Alexander Hamilton consolidated all the debts of the member states making it the national debt federally. ONLY federal debt is at reserve status. Whatever California does is on them. Their bankruptcy does not threaten the entire country or the status of the dollar. California is no different from Bangladesh who also can issue debt in dollars. This proves the issue is NOT a single currency. The issue is the STRUCTURE!

In the EU, because the debts were never consolidated, then the failure of one brings down the whole because each member state is RESERVE status. The 50 states and municipalities in the USA can issue whatever debt they want in dollars and their status economically is no different than Bangladesh, Brazil, of Beruit issuing its debt in dollars.

There is the EURO CRISIS as Brussels has tried to be half-pregnant. That is why the Euro is doomed! It is STRUCTURE one for all (sometimes to a point) but one can take down all

Debt is Only Money that Pays Interest


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I listened to your interview with Greg Hunter on USA Watchdog. For the first time, I really understand that debt is money that pays interest. That is the real money supply which is leveraged. It is the interest that keeps expanding the debt and forcing taxes higher and higher until it can’t expand anymore. Is this the end game?

I only hope when this house of cards comes tumbling down, you will be there to help.

Please keep up your

PL

 

ANSWER: We will see interest expenditures exceed military next year in the USA. Only then will people perhaps begin to pay attention to what I have been saying. Can you imagine that the debt of all nations is about to explode with the slightest uptick in interest rates? We will be going over this issue at the WEC. Just look at Italy when rates soared from 0.3% to 2.5% in a single day. When I say interest rates can rise DRAMATICALLY, this is no joke. The Quantitative Easing in Europe and Japan have destroyed their bond markets. The central banks buy everything. The Bank of Japan bragged how they bought 97% of the new debt. Hello! That means there is no market!

People always ask me why I do what I do meeting with political governments around the world and I do not charge them a dime! The answer is simple. If I took money from them, then I would be beholding to them. Strangely enough, they call me because they know I will tell the truth. The research we put out is NOT for sale to the highest bidder to be manipulated to support some agenda like they do in everything else right down to Global Warming. Yes, there are governmental agencies that pay for Socrates. That is different from meeting with me personally.

I am called (1) because there is no conflict of interest and (2) our computer is tracking the entire world and its forecast cannot be manipulated. So do you want to call someone who you pay to fashion studies to support whatever political agenda you have today? Or do you really want to know when the shit will hit the fan?

 

 

Paper money used to pay interest during the civil war. Nothing has really changed. Debt is now just money that pays interest. We have returned full circle

Cryptocurrency Changing the World?


 

I do not know how else to say this. Cryptocurrencies are an ASSET CLASS and they are something to TRADE. All this stupid nonsense that they will revise the world monetary system with no pain and governments will be brought to the knees without firing a shot, I really do not know who makes up this nonsense. They clearly do not look at history nor do they understand human nature. We WILL crash and I hope the BURN then becomes possible where we get reasonable reform without the totalitarianism that is so common.

Cryptocurrencies are a trading vehicle – that’s it! It will by no means produce sweeping reform without the crash and burn. New ideas are adopted ONLY after a crash and burn. They called Keynes a nutjob and his ideas would be inflationary because the prevailing view was austerity. ONLY after the Great Depression did they turn to Keynes – NOT before.

As for the smartass remark, I am “too old” to understand the new age, I have been a programmer my whole life and what we have developed is still far ahead of the current norm. The last time I heard that remark was when I was an adviser to Temple University. Merrill Lynch was trying to see the way to leverage your returns which ended blowing up Orange County California and resulted in lawsuits of over $2 billion from various sources back in 1994. The scheme was to buy 30-year bonds, short 10-year against them, and capture the difference. Then leverage $1 million into $10 million and the tiny spread would double the interest rate on the original capital. The Temple Board told them I had to approve it. The analysts/salesmen flew in, showed me the scheme, I rejected it and warned them that if interest rates rose, the trade would explode in their face. Their losses would be reversed leveraged. They went back to Chicago, reworked the numbers, flew back and said see it would be a break even. I laughed, told them they assumed they would be able to get out of a trade that went bad without volatility. That was a fool’s game. I explained that this was the trust fund for the university they wanted to speculate with. I would not approve it. They then told the board I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money.

So the last time I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money was when I was 45. Human nature is always the same. When they have to say I’m “too old”, it means they have no legitimate argument to put forth. Such transformations of this magnitude take decades. NOT a single one of the big IT companies are doing ANYTHING with cryptocurrencies. Just trade it and be happy. Why put out this nonsense how it will change the world in a matter of weeks or months why that is absurd. They rejected Keynes. It took the collapse of the world monetary system before that adopted Keynesianism. There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that cryptocurrencies will just change the world without a CRASH & BURN.